ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, June 29, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Southern Ontario on Thursday.
GOOGLE AD (NOT ENDORSED BY INSTANT WEATHER)
NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, June 29, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across Northwestern Ontario along the Manitoba border on Thursday afternoon and evening. A few of these storms may become severe with up to quarter-sized hail and 90 km/h wind gusts. There is also the potential for funnel clouds which in rare cases can touch down and become a landspout tornado.
ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, June 28, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Southern Ontario on Wednesday.
NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, June 28, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
Storms expected to develop over Manitoba and along the Ontario border could present an isolated severe risk during the afternoon and early evening as they track into Northwestern Ontario. The main risks will be 90 km/h wind gusts, dime-sized hail and localized flash flooding. There is also the chance for funnel clouds which in rare cases can touch down and become a landspout tornado.
NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Tuesday, June 27, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
Isolated storms are expected to develop over Southeastern Manitoba during the early afternoon and track into Northwestern Ontario along the border. A few of these storms could reach severe criteria around the Kenora region with damaging wind gusts and nickel-sized hail. The risk of storms will continue into the evening with additional storms moving in from Manitoba after the dinner hour. The tornado risk is low, but not completely out of the question.
ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Tuesday, June 27, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
On Tuesday, isolated pop-up thunderstorms are anticipated across a large portion of Southern Ontario during the afternoon and evening. While these storms are expected to be generally weak, their slow movement raises concerns about the potential of localized flooding.
Furthermore, there is a notable environment conducive to the formation of funnel clouds. In rare instances, these funnel clouds may touch down and transform into landspout tornadoes.
The highest likelihood for this occurrence is in the Golden Horseshoe and Central Ontario regions, although the extent of storm coverage in this area remains uncertain compared to Eastern Ontario, where more widespread activity is expected.
ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Monday, June 26, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
Thunderstorms from the previous evening's severe weather in parts of Southern Ontario are continuing to move across the region overnight. These storms are expected to be non-severe but could bring heavy rain and strong wind gusts. In Eastern Ontario, this activity will persist into the pre-dawn hours.
The timing of these morning storms will play a crucial role in determining the overall risk for later on Monday. Current models indicate that they will clear out by noon, allowing the atmosphere enough time to recover and support the development of severe storms in the afternoon.
Our concern is growing for the Ottawa Valley, particularly in the early afternoon. Models suggest that isolated storms may initiate as early as 2 PM, extending from Brockville through Ottawa and into Algonquin Park. If this occurs, the environment would be favorable for rapid intensification, with the potential for large hail up to the size of a tennis ball or golf ball, wind gusts of 100 km/h, and heavy rainfall. Additionally, one or two tornadoes may be possible.
Later in the afternoon, a line of storms is expected to form as isolated storms over Upstate New York move across Lake Ontario. This line will rapidly bow out as it progresses northward, starting with the Kingston region. The main threat with this line will be widespread damaging wind gusts exceeding 100 km/h, based on the anticipated storm pattern. Although the possibility of a tornado cannot be completely ruled out, the risk is uncertain.
There are also indications of a strong flood risk through the Ottawa Valley including the city with models showing 100+mm of rain in a 6-12 timeframe. For the rest of Southern Ontario, including the southwest and Golden Horseshoe region, we anticipate isolated pop-up storms during Monday afternoon and evening. Currently, it appears that these storms should remain non-severe, but we may need to expand the isolated risk zone in the morning as we gather more information.
NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Monday, June 26, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible throughout Northeastern Ontario on Monday afternoon and evening. These storms could possibly reach severe levels around Sudbury and North Bay, but the confidence is low so we didn’t add an isolated severe risk.
ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Monday, June 26, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected across Southern Ontario on Monday. The strongest storms are expected in Central and Eastern Ontario where there might even be a questionable severe risk. However, at this point, we are sticking with a non-severe risk. An isolated severe risk might be introduced in a future update.
ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Sunday, June 25, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
A squall line of strong to severe storms is expected to develop across Southern Michigan during the afternoon on Sunday and track eastward. The environment is favourable for these storms to remain severe once they reach Deep Southwestern Ontario by the mid to late evening hours.
Our primary concern will be the widespread wind risk from Sarnia through Chatham and into Windsor. These areas could experience in excess of 100 km/h wind gusts from this line. Up to quarter-sized hail and even an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out with these storms.
Further eastward, the squall line is expected to track across our region overnight. Although it should weaken to below-severe levels by the early overnight hours. The occasional gust of up to 90km/h may still occur in localized spots overnight.
NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Sunday, June 25, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are expected along the Southern parts of Northern Ontario on Sunday including Fort Frances, Thunder Bay, Sault Ste. Marie and Sudbury. The main threat will be heavy rainfall as these storms will be moving quite slowly.
Poor Air Quality Expected on Sunday as Wildfire Smoke Returns to Ontario
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Numerous uncontrolled wildfires have been raging in Northern Ontario and Quebec for several weeks. In early June, we experienced the effects of the smoke as it drifted southward, leading to poor air quality in Southern Ontario. At times, the air quality was among the worst worldwide.
In the past few weeks, we've occasionally encountered blasts of wildfire smoke, mainly in Eastern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe region. Fortunately, the weather patterns have mostly kept the heaviest smoke away from our area. However, this is about to change. On Sunday, we anticipate the most widespread and dense near-surface smoke since the beginning of the week. The thickest smoke is expected to arrive late Saturday evening or just after midnight.
Central Ontario (Muskoka, Parry Sound, Algonquin Park, etc.) and areas along the Quebec border, including Ottawa and Renfrew, are likely to experience the worst conditions. The air quality in these regions will be severely compromised throughout Sunday, potentially reaching unsafe levels even for those who are not typically sensitive to air pollution. It is advised to minimize outdoor exposure as much as possible.
As we move southwest, the smoke intensity is expected to decrease. Moderate levels of smoke are anticipated in Kingston, Peterborough, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), and Barrie. While the air quality won't be as severe, the smell of smoke may still be noticeable, and individuals with pre-existing conditions may experience symptoms. Southwestern Ontario is not expected to be significantly impacted, with minimal or no near-surface smoke..
The most hazardous air quality is anticipated in Northern Ontario, particularly around the Sudbury region along with Cochrane and parts of Northwestern Ontario where active fires persist.
Forecasting the smoke conditions in Northern Ontario is challenging due to the complexity of distinguishing between local fire-generated smoke and smoke drifting over from Quebec. The forecast for the northwest region depends on the behaviour of fires near Fort Hope over the next 12-24 hours, making it less certain.
Moderate to heavy smoke is expected across all of Northern Ontario, although Thunder Bay should experience less severe conditions.
Southern Ontario is expected to see a reduction in smoke by late Sunday, but smoke may linger in Northern Ontario into Monday. A strong westerly flow will push the smoke from Quebec directly into the northern region
ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Saturday, June 24, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
Pop-up thunderstorms are expected across much of Southern Ontario during the afternoon and evening on Saturday. These storms are likely to be quite weak and localized so not everyone will see them. Those that do see them can expect small hail, lightning and heavy rainfall.
The environment is favourable for the development of funnel clouds as well. While funnel clouds don’t directly pose a risk to the ground, they can touch down in rare cases and become a landspout tornado.
Landspout: A landspout is a type of tornado that forms under a weak thunderstorm. Unlike traditional tornadoes, which develop from supercell thunderstorms and are associated with a rotating updraft called a mesocyclone, landspouts form from non-supercell storms and do not have a mesocyclone. These tornadoes are generally weaker and shorter-lived than their supercell counterparts but can still pose a threat to property and life, with wind speeds occasionally reaching up to 160 km/h.
NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Saturday, June 24, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Northern Ontario on Saturday.
ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Friday, June 23, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern Ontario with the exception of Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Ottawa region. The risk will be primarily during the afternoon and evening on Friday. All of these storms should remain non-severe with the main threats being small hail, lightning and heavy rainfall.
NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Friday, June 23, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in parts of Northeastern Ontario during the afternoon and evening on Friday.
ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, June 22, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Southern Ontario on Thursday.
NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, June 22, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
Isolated storms are expected to develop across Northwestern Ontario during the afternoon on Thursday. Some of these storms could present a minor severe risk with up to quarter-sized hail, 90 km/h wind gusts and flash flooding. The environment is also favourable for the development of funnel clouds which in rare cases, can touch the ground and become a landspout tornado.
ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, June 21, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
Thunderstorms are currently not expected across Southern Ontario on Wednesday.
NORTHERN ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Wednesday, June 21, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to impact parts of Northwestern Ontario along the Manitoba border on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Current indications suggest they should remain non-severe, but an odd severe storm can’t be ruled out. Although, the confidence isn’t high enough to support an isolated severe risk on our map.
