Thunderstorm Outlook
Valid: Saturday, June 27, 2020
Forecaster: Brennen Perry
Thunderstorm outlook map
NOTE: The tornado risk zone outlines the region with the highest probability of tornadoes, but tornadoes may occur outside of the zone.
Timing |
Southwestern: 1PM - 7PM
|
|---|
Not sure what region you are in? Click here for a map showing the regions across Southern Ontario. Northeastern Ontario is north of North Bay (not shown on map).
Thunderstorm Threatcast
Thunderstorm Confidence |
High (75%) |
|---|---|
|
Severe Confidence |
Moderate (50%) |
Tornadoes |
One or Two |
Max Wind Gusts |
100+ kmh | 62+ mph |
Max Hail Size |
Walnut |
Max 24-hr Rainfall |
~50 mm | ~2" |
Forecast Discussion
Issued: Saturday, June 27, 2020 - 1:15PM
There is the risk of severe thunderstorms through parts of Northeastern, Central and Eastern Ontario starting Saturday afternoon and lasting into the late evening hours. The main focus is on a zone that includes much of the Ottawa Valley such as Pembroke, Bancroft, Ottawa, Smiths Falls and Cornwall. This area could see the development of supercells that have the potential to produce large hail up the 4cm in diameter, damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. One or two tornado(es) can’t be ruled out with theses storms with the environment prime for rotating storms.
We’re also watching the Eastern GTA and into Northeastern Ontario (Sudbury, North Bay etc.) for a few isolated cells that could become severe sometime this afternoon or early in the evening. The probability isn’t as high as Eastern Ontario so we’ve gone with an ‘isolated severe’ risk, but if they do develop then similar hazards can be expected including large hail, damaging wind gusts and again the possibility of an isolated tornado (especially in Northeastern Ontario). The threat of severe weather for all areas will end just before midnight.
