Significant Winter Storm to Hammer Parts of Southwestern and Central Ontario With Up to 50cm of Snow and Blizzard Conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday

After the first day of this multi-day winter storm, most saw just heavy rainfall with minimal impact as the rain begin to transition over the wet snow towards the afternoon and continuing this evening. Current radar as of early Monday evening suggests that most areas except for Eastern Ontario and around the Lake Ontario shoreline has switched over to snow with some accumulation possible by midnight in some areas. Those the haven’t already switched over mainly through the GTA will see wet snow beginning to mix in overnight with accumulation by the time you wake up in the morning.

The exact impact of this storm will be very location-dependent as the stalled out low-pressure system won’t have much moisture to work with by itself but that’s where the lakes will come into play and add some extra fuel to this storm. Hence it’s better to think of this storm as a snow squall event because the lake enhancement will act similarly to the lake effect bands we see where one location can get pounded with extreme snowfall totals while just down the road receives a dusting of snow.

General snowfall totals for the locations that have little lake enchantment will range from around 10-20cm with lower amounts through the GTA and out in Eastern Ontario where more rain will reduce the snow totals. While on the other hand, those very localized zones south of Georgian Bay and southeast of Lake Huron could easily double those non-lake enhanced totals with the potential for 30-50cm and perhaps over 50cm around the Blue Mountains.

We expect heavy snow to develop through Southwestern Ontario beginning just after midnight with strong wind gusts around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay between 40-70km/h. This will create blowing snow and localized blizzard conditions throughout the morning and afternoon in the London, Barrie, Collingwood and Grey-Bruce area. We should mention that this is a very localized event and our timeline graphic isn’t designed for that. For example, London will likely see blizzard conditions so we’ve included that in the graphic but Brantford won’t. It’s highly recommended that you download our app HERE and check out the hourly forecast for the most accurate information for your specific location.

The heavy snow will continue through most of the afternoon on Tuesday although it will likely become lighter later in the day and into the evening. Blizzard conditions will also come to an end later in the afternoon as wind gusts will subside just after the noon hour (later afternoon for the London area). Eastern Ontario will see rainfall throughout the day on Tuesday with some wet snow mixing in through the higher elevations around Bancroft and Peterborough during the afternoon. The Ottawa and Kingston area won’t see any flakes until late Tuesday with little to no accumulation expected.

Snowfall will continue overnight into Wednesday but it will become increasingly dependent on the lake enhancement so we’ll see some traditional snow squalls and lake effect snow develop around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay early Wednesday morning. This could affect the Barrie/Orillia and Northern GTA area during the Wednesday morning commute especially the Hwy 400 corridor between Newmarket and Barrie. However it will disipate later in the morning and early afternoon as the lake effect snow machine is turned off.

The theme throughout this forecast has been location location location and that will continue to be the story as we take a look at the potential snowfall totals by Wednesday. Our last forecast broke down the snowfall totals by each day so this forecast map will likely look different from our previous Tuesday’s snowfall forecast for your location. This is because we’ve added on Wednesday’s totals to Tuesday as Wednesday in itself isn’t very significant but could add an extra 10-15cm around the snowbelts mainly around Georgian Bay.

The real winners (or losers depending on if you like snow) of this storm will easily be just south of Georgian Bay through parts of Bruce-Grey counties including Meaford and the higher elevations southwest of Collingwood with snowfall totals over 50cm. Surrounding regions including Collingwood, Wiarton and Chatsworth can expect to pick up between 30-50cm with lower totals near the shoreline.

Another area that will be pummeled by the lake enhancement with be to the southeast of Lake Huron just west of the City of London. Locations such as Lambton Shores, Strathroy and Parkhill could also see between 30-50cm. The City of London, along the Lake Huron shoreline and into Simcoe County (Barrie, Midland etc.) will see some impact from the lake enhancement with totals around 20-30cm. Further north, North Bay and the Algonquin Highlands area may also see as much as 30cm.

The rest of Southwestern and Central Ontario including Kitchener/Waterloo, Windsor and Muskoka will see little lake enhancement but still the light to moderate snowfall throughout Tuesday and into Wednesday will add up. General totals outside of the snowbelts will range from 10-20cm with closer to 5-10cm through the GTA and Niagra region with more a rain/snow mix expected. Eastern Ontario will again be largely unaffected with just rainfall during the day on Tuesday and some wet snow later in the day.

If you need to travel tomorrow or go anywhere please be sure to drive according to the conditions and leave plenty of time to get to your destination. This is especially true through the areas the could see blizzard conditions where road closures aren’t out of the question so consider avoiding non-essential travel if you can (although we are in the middle of a pandemic so that’s a good idea regardless of the weather conditions).