Pre-Christmas Major Snowstorm to Deliver a Wintery Blast to Southern Manitoba With Up to 25-40cm Possible Between Tuesday and Wednesday

It has been a fairly quiet start to the winter season across Southern Manitoba, but that’s about to change as a significant winter storm is set to bring a heavy dumping of snow across the region. We’ve been following the developments of this system for a few days now and while the data has been fairly consistent, but there has been a trend with a more northern track in the latest data. This combined with a stronger system means we expect higher snow totals from this storm than we initially suggested. Some parts of South-central Manitoba from Roblin through the Interlake region have the potential to see final snow totals between 25-40cm with locally higher amounts around the Dauphin area.

Heavy bands of snow are expected to enter the province from Saskatchewan during the mid to late morning on Tuesday. The Roblin and Virden area will be the first to feel the effects of the storm spreading eastward throughout the rest of Tuesday. We expect the worst conditions to occur during the evening hours on Tuesday extending into Early Wednesday morning. There is still some disagreement amongst the models on how far south the bands of snow will get but at this point, we believe most of Southern Manitoba (except for Extreme Southwestern Manitoba) will see at least several hours of heavy snow. Strong wind gusts between 40-75kn/h will likely result in blowing snow out on the roads and localized blizzard conditions. Conditions will start to improve after sunrise on Wednesday with flurries lingering around into the afternoon but most of the snow on the ground by the mid to late morning.

As we mentioned above, the heaviest snowfall totals will be found from the Saskatchewan border around Roblin/Russell, eastward through the Central Interlake region and the Pine Falls area. Current indications suggest that this area has the potential to see snow totals between 25-40cm by the time the snow tapers off on Wednesday. We have also added a small zone around Dauphin where models are picking up on some localized heavier bands which may push snow totals near 50cm.

Other areas including Minnedosa, Neepawa, northern parts of Metro Winnipeg can expect final snowfall accumulation between 15-25cm with localized amounts near 30cm. The rest of Southern Manitoba including the Trans-Canada corridor from Brandon through Winnipeg is on track to see between 10-20cm. Brandon will likely be closer to the 10cm mark as per the latest data and areas south of the city will see less than 10cm due to slightly warmer temperatures.

In the wake of the storm, very cold air will flow into the province pushing temperatures to near or below -20°C across Southern Manitoba during the day on Wednesday. Even colder temperatures are expected to start the day on Christmas Eve with morning wind chills near -35°C! Temperatures will somewhat moderate as we head into Christmas morning but morning lows will still be in the mid negative teens. With these cold temperatures expected, it’s near-certain that Manitoba will see a White Christmas this year - our updated White Christmas outlook will be out on Tuesday.

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