Increasing risk of a major storm for Groundhog Day! and your weekend forecast!

Issued: January 29th, 2021 @ 6 PM

Updated: January 29th,2021 @ 6:00 PM

Forecaster: James Follette

A large storm has pummeled the California state with several feet of snow, over 2-4” of rain and wind gusts that climbed as high as 110 km/h is now leaving California and is on the move to head for the mid-west this weekend to slammer Chicago and Illinois with several inches of snow and over 70+ km/h winds.

Then by Monday it will track up the east coast and make a punch for the province on Groundhog Day and stick around for several days bringing lots of snow, rain, ice, and wind.

The threat level continues to climb as we get nearer to the day of the storm which is expected to arrive early on Groundhog Day...

The threat level is now at "9" Which means there is a high threat of this storm impacting the province with significant snow, ice, rain, and high winds.

The biggest threats from this storm will be Snow & Wind, But we also have a moderate threat for Rain, Freezing Rain, and Sleet! ( ice pellets)

Travel Risks, An overall Moderate threat right now for Travel, looking at the biggest threats again being snow and wind, but a moderate threat for ice and rain!

So this is a fairly very strong and messy storm, it also will be a very slow-moving and very large storm system where nearly 90% of Atlantic Canada will be impacted in some way! Despite the fact, the track will be offshore and it's slow that we will see the storm continue to roll into Wednesday & Thursday and for some areas, even into early Friday morning!

We will start with Groundhog Day on Tuesday at 8 AM until 2 PM, Light snow will start in the south and quickly move far north into Halifax and on the doors of New Glasgow & Antigonish.

As we get into the afternoon and evening hours from 2pm-8pm on Tuesday, We will see snow change over to rain in Yarmouth and southern parts of Shelburne county. Light snow will continue to fall inland areas and the snow will pick up in intensity becoming heavy at times with blowing and drifting snow with high winds stretching from Digby to Southern Cape Breton, and North west sections such as Amherst. Light snow spreads into Truro, New Glasgow and much of Cape Breton including Sydney.

As we get into the evening and overnight hours of Tuesday, we’ll start to see the warmer air move in over the province, rain that was falling in Yarmouth now spreads into Digby, Bridgewater, Liverpool, Halifax meanwhile Greenwood & Kentville will continue to see some heavy snow and high winds. Heavy snow will also continue to impact Antigonish and much of Cape Breton. There also will be a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain from Amherst to New Glasgow and Truro, also parts of Cape Breton including west of Sydney.

Heading into Day #2, into the very early morning hours of Wednesday from 2am to 8am. Warm air continues to move far inland of the province with rain continuing to fall from Yarmouth to Antigonish and much of Cumberland and Colchester counties. Seeing some light snow still falling over Amherst on Wednesday morning and, North of Antigonish and much of Cape Breton there will still be some very heavy snow still falling in the early morning hours and some pockets of Freezing rain and Ice pellets over Inverness county.

It’s not until Wednesday morning and early afternoon where the province begins to see all rain and/or Freezing rain or ice pellets such as in Victoria and Northern Inverness County, but no snow.

Heavy rain continues to fall over much of the province as get into the later part of the day Wednesday with some pockets of ice pellets still falling over Cape Breton.

Wednesday evening and overnight, we’ll see rain persisting, but as the low begins to finally pull away, we will begin to see the first signs of the colder air on the back side of the storm begin to move back in and that will mean a change over back to ice pellets over New Glasgow and surrounding areas. But everyone else will remain as rain!

Now entering Day 3! Thursday. The warm side of the storm begins to finally move out overnight into early morning hours and this will bring a swath of clearing before round 2! Yarmouth, Liverpool, Bridgewater, Truro, New Glasgow, Antigonish & Sydney all will see clearing conditions late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. No clearing for the west side! Rain changes back to snow on the back side of the storm which is the colder side, so Amherst, Kentville, Greenwood will see change back to snow! Still raining in Digby and inland areas.

Moving into the morning to early afternoon hours, we’ll see the rain sink southward into Yarmouth, rain moving into parts of Cape Breton and Guysborough counties. Rain changes back to snow in Digby and snow moves further inland now over Pictou, Colchester, Cumberland, Kings, Annapolis counties!

Afternoon to evening hours Thursday, as the low continues to pull away there will be colder air moving more southward changing all precipitation to snow for much of the province with exception to only Southern areas and parts along the coast, South of Halifax near the water, and over Cape Breton and Richmond counties of Cape Breton where they will see rain as they are still a little in the warm sector.

It’s not until late Thursday evening into Overnight hours and early morning hours of Friday! that we finally see the storm ending over the province. We’ll have some remaining snow over Inverness and Victoria counties of Cape Breton as well as Antigonish

Day 4! Friday early morning now, storm is pretty much done with for majority of the province, snow finally beginning to taper off over Western Cape Breton but still some left over snow bands near Cheticamp and even some snow near the coast East of Sydney. The storm is done with 100% of the province by near noon Friday!

So wow! what a very long duration of a storm! and a big mess!

It may still be a bit too early to be more precise in snowfall maps, We forecasters can get a better idea by looking at model ensembles that give a probability of snowfall at a certain amount. An ensemble is a bunch of models altogether and is averaged out.

Here is the first one, This is the ECMWF snowfall probability of snowfall reaching 3"+, The ensembles are indicating a 90-100% probability that 3 or more inches of snow will fall. There is a very small area inland of Yarmouth that has an 80-90% probability of 3 inches or more, either way, this shows that there is a very high likely hood of seeing over 3 inches everywhere in the province!

Here is the ECMWF probability of 6”+ or ( 15+cm )

For Southern NS: 30-40% probability of 15cm or greater, this would include Digby, Yarmouth & Shelburne.

For Southern Shores: 50-70% probability of 15cm or greater, this would include Queens county, Lunenburg county, and as well as Halifax county.

For Western NS: 80-90% probability of 15cm or greater, this would include Annapolis and Kings county!

For Central and far Western NS: 60-80% probability of 15cm or greater, This will include Hants, Pictou, Cumberland, Colchester counties.

For Northern NS: Also 60-80% probability of 15cm or greater, This will include Antigonish, Guysborough counties.

For Eastern CB: 60-80% probability of 15cm or greater, This will include Cape Breton and Richmond counties.

For Western CB: 80-100% probability of 15cm or greater, This includes Northern parts of Inverness and Victoria counties, further south, 60-80% probability of 15cm or greater.

Finally, here is the ECMWF probability of 12” or greater! and as you can see, The only probability of seeing over a foot of snow is in the Northern sections of eastern Cape Breton. at a low 10-30% probability, there are a few spots where there is a 30-40% probability of over a foot of snow.

So all in all Basically looks like a great chance of everyone seeing at least a half-foot of snow! which is 15cm or 6”. If in Eastern Cape Breton in the northern sections, very high likely chance of seeing 8 to 12”+ or 20 to 30cm or greater.

So expect the high likelihood of seeing a lot of snow!

Now from snow to winds! Winds will be strongest over Cape Breton and along with the coastal areas. Digby, Yarmouth, Liverpool, Halifax, Antigonish, and Sydney will see Damaging wind gusts of 90 to 105 km/h. Inverness and Victoria county will be the hardest-hit areas for snow and wind, where 100-115+ km/h is likely.

For Greenwood, Kentville, Truro, New Glasgow, and Amherst, look for Gusty winds, but not damaging! 60-80 km/h is likely to be expected and then inland areas of Tri-Counties and Southern Shores including Bridgewater, look for potentially damaging winds of 80-100 km/h.

Looking at the probability of seeing wind gusts exceeding 34 knots or 65 km/h or greater.

Southern NS and coastal Eastern sections: 80-100% probability of seeing wind gusts exceeding 65 km/h or greater and this includes all of Tri-Counties, South Shores, Halifax, Guysborough counties.

For Western sections: 40-50% probability of seeing Gusts over 65 km/h. This includes Colchester, Cumberland, Hants, Pictou counties!

For Northern sections: Antigonish county looking at 60-80% probability of wind gusts over 65 km/h

For Cape Breton: 70-90% probability of seeing gusts over 65 km/h.

Here is the ECMWF Wind gusts probability of seeing gusts over 50 knots or greater, that is 95 km/h or greater. looks like much of the province will see a 10-30% probability of seeing gusts of over 95 km/h, but head south towards Tri-Counties, South Shores, Halifax counties, 30-40% probability of gusts over 95 km/h and even further south towards Barrington, Clark’s Harbour and surrounding islands there is a 50-70% probability of seeing gusts over 95 km/h.

Here is your Weekend forecast for the city, looking at a slight chance of flurries today and -3, increasing sunshine tomorrow, but still cold! highs of -3 and cloudy skies on Sunday with highs of -3.