Widespread Wind Storm Likely and Marginal (Low) Risk For Severe Thunderstorms Today

It will also be an active day weather-wise across Southern Ontario as a system moves into the region. Scattered rain showers will be ongoing throughout the day although it won’t be constant and actual rainfall totals will be below 10mm for most areas. Something we’re also watching is the risk of our first thunderstorm of the year which could bring heavy rain, a few lightning strikes, strong wind gusts and small hail. We're actually also seeing a low and somewhat questionable risk for brief, isolated tornadoes.

Considering we had 42 confirmed tornadoes in 2020 in Ontario, this shouldn't come as a big shock to anyone, even this early in the season. However, a few particular models have been consistent on the potential and we feel it's worth mentioning, especially with these substantial wind gusts we'll be experience while these storms are occurring. We’re working hard on a thunderstorm map and we’ll get that out ASAP.

Strong to damaging wind gusts will be a big concern throughout the province with gusts ranging from 80-95km/h in most areas. A few spots could stay under 80km/h but it will still be a very gusty day. A zone including parts of Grey-Bruce counties and into the Dundalk Highlands may see gusts approach 100km/h mainly along the Georgian Bay and Lake Huron shoreline.

All good things must come to an end though as colder air is expected to return late Thursday into Friday. This will drop temperatures back to below the freezing mark setting the stage for a pretty chilly weekend. Morning low on Saturday could come near -10°C in some areas!

We’re only a few days into the start of meteorological spring and Mother Nature is wasting no time with leaving the winter we had (which wasn’t much) and pushing Southern Ontario right into spring-like weather this week. This will especially be true for Thursday as we’re expecting the warmest air of the year to invade the region bringing temperatures into the upper teens and perhaps even near 20°C. Although before you get too excited for a chance to go out and enjoy these temperatures, the warmer temperatures will be accompanied by some rain (maybe even the chance of a thunderstorm) along with strong wind gusts between 80-95km/h. There should be a few hours without rain in some areas so you should hopefully still be able to get out there but don’t plan on a whole day of beautiful weather.

Many regions across Southern Ontario are already basking in some warm air on Wednesday with the temperature reaching into the low to mid-double digits. Temperatures will cool down somewhat overnight as is usual once the sun goes down and daylight heating into factored in, but the mild temperatures will return Thursday afternoon likely a few degrees higher than Wednesday. Widespread daytime highs throughout Southern Ontario will range from around 15-20°C and even some areas around the Golden Horseshoe and into Extreme Southwestern Ontario could come near 20 °C.

Areas further to the north including Central and Northeastern Ontario will see temperatures in the upper single-digit to the low double digits. It should be noted that there is some disagreement in the models exactly how warm it will be with some suggesting similar temperatures as we saw on Wednesday. So far this week, actual temperatures have been higher than what most models indicated so we believe that will continue. If we see more rain on Thursday it could keep the temperature down into the low teens instead of the upper teens.