Late Season Significant Severe Risk for Southern Ontario on Tuesday (Sep. 7); Destructive Wind Gusts, Large Hail and Tornadoes Possible
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Forecast Discussion
It’s the unofficial end to summer as the Labour Day long weekend is behind us, but Mother Nature apparently missed the memo. We’re watching what could be a quite prolific severe risk across some parts of Southern Ontario on Tuesday. The strongest risk will be found along the Lake Huron shoreline and east of Georgian Bay as a line of storm is expected to develop over Lake Huron during the late afternoon and track through the region during the evening hours.
There is still some uncertainty with this event particularly with timing as there is some data the indicates storms could reach our region later in the day. If this happens, there will be a weaker environment for the storms to take advantage of so they won’t be as severe. The current consensus does seem to favour the earlier solution which is why we’ve chosen to go with a significant severe risk, but this could change by tomorrow so adjustments may be required.
As usual with these events, these storms will come with large hail, destructive wind gusts and even a fairly strong tornado risk earlier in their lifespan. Later in the evening, we do expect the storms to transition into more of a strong wind gust risk as they track to the east. We should see the severe risk dissipate later in the evening although strong non-severe storms are possible through Eastern Ontario during the overnight hours.
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