‘Crippling’ Blizzard to Put a Damper on the Holiday Weekend in Parts of Southern Ontario With Up to 100cm of Snow Possible
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NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.
As we approach the final days before Christmas, Mother Nature is set to deliver what has the potential to be a crippling blizzard for parts of Southern Ontario over the next few days. In addition to the blizzard risk in the traditional snowbelt, there is also the threat of strong wind gusts, a flash freeze and significantly colder temperatures. All these threats will combine to amplify this winter storm into a very serious situation across Southern Ontario. This has prompted Environment Canada to issue a blizzard warning mentioning the risk of a ‘Crippling’ blizzard and that ‘Travel will become dangerous and is not advised’.
The effects of this system have already started to be felt with a mix of rain, freezing rain and snow depending on your location. Precipitation will continue to build overnight and into Friday morning with temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. With rain ongoing throughout the morning, temperatures will start to plunge starting with Deep Southwestern Ontario just after midnight and reaching the GTA by late morning. Those in Eastern Ontario will see a switch over to regular rain as temperatures temporarily rise during the morning, but the temperature plunge will happen by the early afternoon.
While this normally wouldn’t be a big issue, the previous rainfall combined with the rapidly dropping temperature will cause the rain to turn to ice. Especially with how quickly the temperature will drop leaving little time for road crews to deal with the icy conditions. For example, Toronto will be around 4°C at 8 am, 2°C at 10 am, -5 at 12 pm and -8 by 2 pm. Over 12 degrees in temperature drop within 6 hours! Please exercise extreme caution out on the roads as black ice can be hard to spot. Stay home if possible or until several hours after the freeze to give time for road crews to clean up the roads.
NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.
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The other component of this complex storm will be the strong wind gusts developing as the system rapidly intensifies over the region. Based on the latest data there has been a slight decrease in the expected wind gusts, but we are still expecting a damaging wind storm. Winds will begin to pick up through the early afternoon hours and continue for the rest of the day and into the evening.
We expect the strongest wind gusts will be found in the Niagara region just off the northeastern shoreline of Lake Erie where gusts could approach or even exceed 110km/h. This is especially the case directly along the shoreline in locations like Port Colborne and Fort Erie. Outside of this area, strong wind gusts ranging from 80-100km/h will be a threat throughout Southwestern Ontario, the GTA and into Eastern Ontario. The strongest gusts will be found directly along the shorelines of Lake Huron, Lake Ontario and along the Dundalk Highlands where the 100km/h gusts are more likely while further inland will be closer to 80-90km/h.
With wind gusts this intense, we will likely see widespread power outages which may last for a prolonged period. The heavy snowfall accumulation and icy conditions will make it difficult for hydro crews to effectively restore power to everyone so it may take some time. Another danger would be the frigid temperatures expected over the weekend with the wind chill making it feel into the -20s by Saturday morning. Anyone without power could struggle to stay warm so be sure to have a plan in place should that occur.
These strong wind gusts will also pose a problem with the lake effect snow expected to develop on Friday resulting in widespread blizzard conditions in areas east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay along with the Niagara region. Travel in those regions will likely become near impossible with highways closures almost certain due to reduced visibility and plows being unable to keep up with the intense snowfall rates. All travel should be avoided here until conditions improve as you don’t want to be stranded out in your vehicle with bitterly cold temperatures.
NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.
Back to the snowfall story which could be quite serious for those that are impacted by snow squall activity over the weekend. With cold air firmly in place, the system stalled out and rotating over the region will be enhanced by some locally heavy lake effect bands of snow starting Friday afternoon. It appears that it will be primarily a westerly flow which means the lake effect snow will really focus on the Grey-Bruce region along with those in Muskoka and Parry Sound.
The system-related snowfall will begin to taper off overnight Friday, but the lake effect snow will continue and could even further intensify. Current model guidance suggests that a very prolific snow squall will set up across the Bruce Peninsula, going over Georgian Bay and coming back inland through around Port Carling and Bracebridge. The snow squall may remain locked in through that general region all the way through Saturday and into Sunday. While this will limit the impact to a smaller region, it will mean those who do see it is going to be pummeled by intense snowfall amounts.
Lake effect snow and localized snow squalls will also be ongoing east of Lake Huron. It currently appears that the lake effect snow here will come in the form of multiple weaker bands instead of one main intense squall. This doesn’t mean the impact will be less, in fact, it could be just as bad with stronger wind gusts expected in this area. And the overall impact will be more widespread rather than contained in one small zone as is the case east of Georgian Bay.
Snow squall activity will continue into Sunday with similar locations being impacted. In terms of accumulation, the ‘winner’ (if you can call it that) by the end of the weekend appears to be somewhere in the Muskoka region where data continue to point towards upwards of 100cm over the next 3 days. Now, this will be very focused and not the entire region will see crazy totals like this. But we believe somewhere within that area will pick up that much.
Those east of Lake Huron can expect around 50-75cm (maybe up to 100cm in some spots) of snow with lower amounts further inland. Important to note that the snowfall is spread throughout several days so accumulation over any given 24 hour period will max out at around 20-40cm.
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NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.
The other location set to receive a blast of snow is the southeastern tip of the Niagara region. This is thanks to a strong snow squall setting up Friday afternoon and continuing throughout the weekend. There is still some uncertainty on the extent of how much impact it will have on our side of the border. As this band will also bury Buffalo (for the second time this year) and the most intense parts could remain south of the border. Regardless those in Port Colborne and Fort Erie will likely see anywhere from 40-75cm with maybe as much as 100cm, particularly for the Fort Erie area.
Outside of the snowbelts, we are looking at 25-50cm of snow throughout Central and Eastern Ontario which will remain on the cold side of this system for the most part. Slightly lower totals are expected for Deep Southwestern Ontario and Northern GTA ranging from 15-30cm. And finally, the GTA including Hamilton, Toronto and right along the Lake Ontario shoreline should escape the worst when it comes to snowfall. We are currently looking at around 5-15cm by the end of the weekend for them.
For Christmas Day, the weather shouldn’t be that bad unless you are in the aforementioned areas receiving snow squall activity. However, roads could still be quite messy with ice and snow so be sure to drive according to the conditions if you must travel. Looking into next week, we see the risk of more lake-effect snow which we will be closely watching.
Please stay safe and stay home if you can!
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