Snow Day (Bus Cancellation) Outlook for Thursday, February 17, 2022
/
An impactful winter storm is set to affect Southern Ontario beginning Thursday. The main event doesn’t get underway until later in the day so that shouldn’t be an issue when it comes to school buses on Thursday. However, icy road conditions from the temperature drop and the risk of freezing rain during the morning and afternoon could be sufficient enough to merit some bus cancellations.
The best chance to see bus cancellations is the Sarnia and Windsor area where a Winter Storm Warning from Environment Canada talks about a freezing rain risk in the morning which is usually enough to result in cancellations. Not to mention that the freeze-over will occur during the morning too compared to later in the day for others. As such, there is a 90% chance of a snow (or ice) day in this zone. The London area has a similar warning so we’ve given them a 75% chance.
Outside of this region, we have fairly low confidence in exactly which boards will choose to cancel so we’ve gone with a widespread 50% chance of a snow day. The only exception to this is the more urban school boards including Toronto, Niagara and Ottawa which tend to have a higher threshold to cancel buses or close schools and have a 25% chance. The school boards that cover the Parry Sound/North Bay and Bancroft area tend to cancel buses more frequently so we’ve bumped those areas up to a 75% chance. This is simply based on the track record in these regions. We aren’t saying that conditions will be particularly worse compared to other regions. It’s just that we’re more confident in those boards to be more proactive and cancel school buses.
Bus cancellations and school closures are expected to be more widespread for Friday as the snowfall overnight will make for quite a mess for the Friday morning commute.
If there are any cancellations tomorrow morning, you can be sure we’ll be up bright and early beginning at 6 AM with our bus cancellations live blog to keep you updated.
Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, and local authorities as well as being up to parents to decide what is best for their children. This is simply our best guess based on our forecast. Also note that due to the current pandemic, some school boards have changed their policies on school bus cancellations. Some will continue the school day in a virtual format should there be school bus cancellations - check with your local board for more details.
