Active Weather Continues Across Southern Ontario With Another Winter Storm on the Horizon to End the Week
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It sure appears that Mother Nature is making up for the lack of storms earlier in the season across Southern Ontario with yet another system set to bring messy weather over the next few days. The exact impact of this winter storm will vary depending on your location with those through Central and Eastern Ontario seeing mostly snow and ice pellets. While to the south, our focus will be on a prolonged risk of freezing rain for a wide swath of Southwestern Ontario and the GTA. There is even the risk of a non-severe thunderstorm around the Windsor and Chatham region late Thursday!
Impacts from this system will begin to be felt just after midnight tonight for Deep Southwestern Ontario coming in the form of rain. Rain will continue across this area with the potential for a non-severe thunderstorm in the evening. Total rainfall accumulation will range from 20-40mm although it might be higher should we see a thunderstorm.
As the bands of precipitation slowly spread to the northeast, it will encounter a layer of colder air locked in at the surface making for the perfect environment for freezing rain. An expansive area of freezing rain will develop across Woodstock, K/W, Guelph, Orangeville and parts of the GTA away from the shoreline during the mid to late morning hours on Thursday.
This is very temperature dependent and even just one degree could be the difference between significant freezing rain and normal rain. Those closest to the Lake Ontario and Huron shorelines will see slightly warmer temperatures allowing for a faster switchover to rain by the late morning. Away from the lakeshore, especially in the higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands, the freezing rain could linger well into the afternoon leading to prolonged icing and potential power outages. The remaining regions throughout Southwestern Ontario and the GTA will see a transition over to rain by the late afternoon.
Total ice accretion is expected to max out at around a few millimetres along the shorelines which will be quickly melted away by the switchover to rain. Those in higher elevations including K/W, Guelph, Orangeville and Newmarket could see upwards of 6-12mm of icing throughout the day on Thursday. This amount of icing would certainly lead to icy road conditions and localized power outages. Travel isn’t recommended here until conditions improve later in the day and we will likely see school bus cancellations for Thursday.
Those in Central and Eastern Ontario will be on the cold side of this storm with ice pellets and heavy snow being the primary concern. Precipitation here will start sometime during the afternoon beginning as an ice pellet and snow mix with more snow further to the north along the Quebec border and Northeastern Ontario.
As the system progresses through the region late Thursday, we expect the southern parts of the aforementioned regions such as Barrie, Peterborough and Kingston to see some freezing rain mixing in with the ice pellets and snow. Freezing rain and drizzle may continue to pose an issue throughout the evening and into the overnight hours.
The highest snowfall totals will be found in Northeastern Ontario including Sudbury and North Bay which could see as much as 10-20cm by the end of Friday. General snowfall totals will range from 5 to 10cm across Central and Eastern Ontario with lower amounts to the south as more ice pellets and freezing rain mix in and reduce the potential accumulation.
As the system exits the region overnight and into Friday morning, we will see colder air flood in behind it. As a result, any remaining precipitation is expected to transition over to flurries by Friday morning. Light snow will continue to fall across Southern Ontario throughout the day on Friday, but we aren’t expecting any significant accumulation.
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