Midweek Snowstorm on Track to Bring Up to 15-25cm of Snow Across Southern Ontario
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A Texas low is set to affect Southern Ontario starting Wednesday, bringing something many across the region have been lacking this year, accumulating snow! The upcoming snowfall event will likely be the most significant thus far in the season for many areas excluding the lake effect snow we saw around Christmas. Widespread snowfall totals will range from 10-25cm with the highest amounts around the Golden Horseshoe and into Eastern Ontario. The heaviest snowfall will occur during the late afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday, making for a very tricky evening commute with snow-covered roads and reduced visibility.
There is still some uncertainty on the exact speed and strength of the system which could change the forecast slightly, but confidence is high enough to provide a rough idea in regards to timing and accumulation. Just keep in mind that this is a preliminary forecast and may need to be adjusted as we get closer to Wednesday. An updated forecast will be released late Tuesday based on the latest data.
We expect that the initial bands of snow will start to move into Deep Southwestern Ontario and areas around the Lake Erie shoreline by late Wednesday morning. Light to moderate snow will be ongoing throughout the afternoon and will continue to intensify later in the day as it approaches the Golden Horseshoe and the rest of Southwestern Ontario. As mentioned, we will see the most intense snowfall rates of up to 2-3cm per hour right during the evening rush hour which will add extra time to the commute for anyone travelling home after the work day.
There could also be some lake enhancement off the southwestern shoreline of Lake Ontario boosting the potential snowfall rates over the Hamilton, Oakville and Grimsby regions. For Eastern and Central Ontario, the snow will start by the early afternoon with the heaviest snow occurring during the evening into the early morning hours of Thursday. Snow is expected to taper off by sunrise on Thursday, but flurries could linger into the afternoon, especially in Eastern Ontario.
As we are expected to remain on the cold side of this system, the expected snowfall totals are fairly straightforward compared to previous events where mixing led to inconsistent accumulation. However, there could be some marginal mixing around the Lake Ontario shoreline and into the Niagara region if temperatures can get warm enough.
A fairly large zone encompassing Eastern Ontario and parts of Central Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe is currently expected to see totals ranging from 15 to 25cm by Thursday afternoon. A few locations mainly in Eastern Ontario and around Hamilton with the lake enhancement could locally see up to 30cm, but those totals will be extremely isolated.
The rest of Southern Ontario including Southwestern Ontario and the Niagara region (where some mixing could occur) are currently looking at totals around 10 to 20cm. Believe it or not, the lower snowfall totals will be found in Northern Ontario with North Bay seeing around 5-10cm and Sudbury getting a few centimetres at most!
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