Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Friday, February 11, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

An Alberta Clipper is expected to slide across Southern Ontario on Friday bringing accumulating snow to some parts of the region while others around Lake Ontario and Erie see a messy mix of wet snow and rain. Precipitation will begin to work into the province from Michigan sometime during the mid to late morning hours on Friday starting with those in Southwestern Ontario and spreading eastward later in the morning.

For those in Central and much of Southwestern Ontario east of Lake Huron, it should mainly come down as snow with limited mixing as temperatures will be near the freezing mark. Slightly warmer temperatures in Deep Southwestern Ontario, around the Golden Horseshoe and into Eastern Ontario (except the higher elevations around Peterborough and Bancroft) should help limit any accumulation with any snow melting on contract.

The heaviest snow will be found during the late morning and early afternoon with it slowly becoming more scattered later in the day. It should be finished by the evening for the most part except for regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay which could see some scattered lake effect snow continuing into Saturday morning.

Snowfall totals from this system will be highly variable and highly dependent on temperatures. We do believe that slightly colder temperatures along with some lake enhancement off Georgian Bay could push totals into the 6-12cm range from the Muskoka-Parry Sound region. Northeastern Ontario will also see higher totals with around 10cm expected for Sudbury and North Bay. Outside of these regions, we are looking around maybe a few centimetres of accumulation and that’s even pushing it since there will be a lot of melting. Very little accumulation is expected in areas around Lake Ontario and Erie which will see rain mix in or fully switch over for a few hours in the case of the Niagara region.

Aside from the snow, a very sharp drop in temperatures is possible overnight into Saturday morning which could pose a flash freeze hazard. We highly suggest clearing any snow that accumulates by late Friday as it will be wet and easy to move. Once we go into Saturday, any leftover snow will freeze solid and become difficult to move. Slippery road conditions are also likely throughout the early part of Saturday so be sure to drive with caution.

Northern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Thursday, February 10 - Friday, February 11, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

An Alberta Clipper is expected to bring widespread accumulating snowfall across Northern Ontario beginning Thursday morning and continuing into Friday. The first bands of precipitation associated with the system will move into Northwestern Ontario by the mid to late morning hours on Thursday. This will be a fairly slow-moving system so the snow isn’t expected to reach areas around Lake Superior by the early evening and overnight for Northeastern Ontario. The snow will start to taper off in the west by Friday morning but will linger throughout much of Friday for Northeastern Ontario.

By the time the snow moves out of the region late Friday, we’re looking at widespread accumulation ranging from 8-16cm for much of Northern Ontario excluding Far Northern Ontario. Locally higher amounts up to 20cm will be found in a zone that includes Red Lake, Sioux Lookout, Armstrong, Geraldton and much of Northeastern Ontario. Lake enhancement around Lake Superior may also push totals close to 20cm through Marathon, Wara and Sault Ste. Marie.

Blowing snow could also be an issue with strong wind gusts ranging from 40-60km/h throughout the region. Please be sure to drive according to the conditions if you plan on travelling as road conditions will likely be quite poor at times.

Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Thursday, February 10, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

Scattered flurries and light snow is expected to continue throughout the overnight and into Thursday. The heaviest snow is expected to occur during the morning and early afternoon hours as it will become more scattered later in the day. For most of Southern Ontario, there won’t be much in terms of accumulation as temperatures will hover around the freezing mark and the snow should melt on contract. Regions east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay could see slightly higher totals thanks to some lake enhancement with up to 4-6cm possible, but not everyone will see even that much.

More widespread accumulating snowfall is expected on Friday as an Alberta Clipper moves across Southern Ontario. At this point, it looks like between 5-10cm of snow is possible in some parts of Southern Ontario. That will be covered in a separate outlook to be issued on Thursday so check back for more details.