Southern Ontario Basks in Unusually Warm Temperatures With a Rare December Thunderstorm Risk on Saturday and Sunday
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Don't be surprised if you hear a few rumbles of thunder or catch a glimpse of lightning later today into Sunday morning.
Southern Ontario is currently experiencing an exceptionally warm weekend for December, with numerous areas reporting double-digit temperatures.
The hottest spots in all of Canada are presently Windsor and St. Catharines, both registering a temperature of 14.5 °C as of 12:50 PM on Saturday. Notably, this might set a temperature record for Windsor, considering the highest recorded temperature on this day is 14.4°C from 1946!
This warmer weather will lead to some instability later today, with scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon. While the majority of these storms are expected to be relatively weak and not reach severe levels, the latest data suggests a questionable severe risk around Windsor and Chatham during the mid to late afternoon hours today.
An isolated storm could emerge over Michigan and track into the Windsor area in the next few hours. It's highly unlikely for any storms to become severe today, but we believe it's worth mentioning as it can't be entirely ruled out.
The main risks would be strong wind gusts, small hail, and heavy rainfall. Some parts of Southern Ontario could witness between 10-20mm of rainfall by Sunday morning.
This thunderstorm risk will persist to the northeast, affecting the Golden Horseshoe, Central, and Eastern Ontario later this evening and into the overnight hours.
You might have heard discussions about a significant storm over the last few days for Southern Ontario. We refrained from discussing it earlier, as models were inconsistent. Some models earlier this week suggested a widespread snowstorm with up to 50cm of snow in some parts of our region! However, that is no longer the case.
The latest model data indicates a potential snowmaker tracking up the US Northeast late Sunday into Monday. It seems that accumulating snow will likely miss Southern Ontario, but it's a close call. There's a possibility of heavier snow along the American border in Eastern Ontario (Brockville, Cornwall, etc.), but even that is uncertain.
Some lake-effect snow activity is also possible early this week around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. We are monitoring the situation and will provide a comprehensive forecast later this weekend if necessary.
