ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Saturday, June 10, 2023
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This afternoon, parts of Central and Eastern Ontario may see the development of a few isolated thunderstorms. Current atmospheric conditions are favourable for these storms to intensify, potentially reaching severe levels with large hail and damaging wind gusts. Our primary concern for severe activity is focused on an area that includes Barry’s Bay, Bancroft, Renfrew, Pembroke, and Cloyne.
Based on the latest data, models are suggesting that an isolated cell may form around Algonquin Park and Barry’s Bay by late afternoon, approximately between 3-5 PM. This cell is projected to move slowly southeastward and could generate toonie-sized hail, wind gusts of up to 100km/h, and heavy rainfall.
Elsewhere in Eastern and Central Ontario, we may see some pop-up storms, which are likely to remain non-severe. However, there is a possibility of isolated severe storms stretching into the Smiths Falls and Brockville areas.
TORNADO RISK
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While the risk is low, we cannot rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado if a storm develops in this region this afternoon to take advantage of the environment. The highest potential for a tornado is during the initial phase of the storms, putting locations including Barry’s Bay, Eganville, and Cloyne squarely in the potential risk zone.
Moreover, there's a wider possibility for funnel clouds and perhaps even a landspout tornado (a tornado not associated with a supercell) across Central and Eastern Ontario.
Landspout: A landspout is a type of tornado that forms under a weak thunderstorm. Unlike traditional tornadoes, which develop from supercell thunderstorms and are associated with a rotating updraft called a mesocyclone, landspouts form from non-supercell storms and do not have a mesocyclone. These tornadoes are generally weaker and shorter-lived than their supercell counterparts but can still pose a threat to property and life, with wind speeds occasionally reaching up to 160 km/h.
