ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Friday, June 30, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
During the mid to late afternoon on Friday, several isolated storms are expected to form in a line extending from North Bay southwestward to Southwestern Ontario.
Based on the latest model data, the environment these storms will encounter suggests the potential for some to become severe. The main risks associated with these storms include large hail ranging from toonie to golf ball size and wind gusts of up to 100 km/h. The possibility of one or two tornadoes cannot be ruled out, as discussed below.
As the evening approaches, the storms are expected to rapidly weaken as the supportive environment diminishes. However, some strong winds could still affect parts of Eastern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe.
Severe weather is also possible in Southwestern Ontario, although the exact location of storm development remains uncertain according to current model data. It is more likely to be concentrated in the Georgian Bay and Central Ontario areas during the later afternoon
TORNADO RISK
The highest risk for tornadoes associated with these storms is forecasted to stretch from Orangeville through Simcoe County and into Muskoka. This region carries the potential for one or two tornadoes. There is also an isolated tornado risk for the rest of Southwestern Ontario and its surrounding areas.
