ONTARIO: Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday, July 13, 2023
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FORECAST DISCUSSION
Isolated storms are expected to develop in Eastern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley, stretching along the American border on Thursday afternoon. The environment is conducive to severe storms, with all threats including tornadoes on the table.
Based on the latest data, the most significant risk lies along the border and extends into the Cornwall area, east of Ottawa. We have classified this area as a 'strong' severe risk, with the potential for hail up to the size of toonies or ping pong balls, wind gusts exceeding 115 km/h, and the possibility of tornadoes.
Moving westward, the severe risk diminishes rapidly, with Ottawa, Brockville, and Smiths Falls falling into the slight severe risk category. The severity of storms in Kingston is isolated and questionable, considering the expected development to occur just north and east of the city.
Tornado Risk
The anticipated tornado threat on Thursday will be localized to Deep Eastern Ontario, including Morrisburg, Cornwall, and Alexandria. These areas may experience one to two tornadoes, depending on the storm's track. It's important to note that the tornado threat in Eastern Ontario will be influenced by the storm's timing, as some models suggest they may occur just before crossing into Quebec. An isolated tornado threat extends from Ottawa to Gananoque.
