Relentless Snow Squalls to Bury Parts of Ontario’s Snowbelt in Up to a METRE (100cm) of Snow by Wednesday
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The coldest air of the season has settled across Southern Ontario, fueling the lake effect machine that has battered parts of the snowbelt over the weekend. Intense squalls have led to significant snowfall, with reports of over 40-50cm in the Orillia and Owen Sound region.
Though these areas saw a respite in squall activity as the bands shifted north last night, the focus now turns to a different part of the snowbelt for the next few days. A strong southwesterly flow over the Great Lakes is expected to continue through Tuesday and into Wednesday leading to continuous snow squall activity.
Heavy bands of snow is expected to settle over areas such as Tobermory, Parry Sound, Britt, and Sundridge, potentially burying them in up to 100cm, or 1 meter, of snow in the coming days. A similar situation is unfolding further north, with intense squalls east of Lake Superior, particularly impacting the Wawa area.
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario are also set to bring significant snow to the Southern Niagara Region and Prince Edward County, as squalls spill north of the border, especially by Wednesday morning. This could result in several hours of lake effect snow hammering the Fort Erie and Port Colborne region.
Off Georgian Bay, snow squalls are stretching across the Bruce Peninsula and coming ashore between Parry Sound and Britt. Minor lake-effect snow from Lake Erie and Lake Ontario is expected to continue overnight into Tuesday morning.
A weak system sliding mostly south of the border could be enhanced by the lakes, leading to heavier snow around the Niagara Region and Eastern Ontario, particularly near Kingston. For the rest of Southern Ontario, expect light snow or flurries throughout the morning, leading to a few centimetres of accumulation at most.
On Tuesday, the situation for those northeast of Georgian Bay remains unchanged, with intense squalls continuing around Parry Sound, stretching into Sundridge and North Bay. However, by late evening, the southern band may shift to a westerly direction, focusing on the Rosseau and Huntsville area and continuing into Wednesday morning, bringing extreme snowfall totals to northern Muskoka and the Parry Sound region.
For the Niagara region, the Lake Erie squall will remain south of the border for most of Tuesday but is expected to drift north by Wednesday morning. This could significantly impact the Fort Erie and Port Colborne areas with rapid snowfall accumulation and near-zero visibility. Prince Edward County may also experience intense squalls drifting as far north as Belleville and Kingston throughout Wednesday.
Later on Wednesday, intense squalls off Georgian Bay may shift southward into the Port Carling, Bracebridge, and Orillia area. There is some uncertainty regarding the squall's location overnight, but it is expected to continue into Thursday. A separate forecast for the rest of the week will be issued soon.
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Forecasting the exact snowfall accumulation for a specific location in a lake-effect snow event is extremely challenging. This is because of the highly localized nature of snow bands, which can lead to significant variance in totals even over short distances.
Therefore, you may notice our forecast shows significantly more snow than your weather app (including our own app). App-based forecasts often struggle with lake effect snow events due to their localized nature and reliance on data focused on larger macro-level weather events. This results in a failure to accurately capture the squalls, which operate at a micro-level, leading to intense snowfall totals.
Our forecast may still be off if the wind direction varies slightly from what the models predict, causing the snow squall band to form further north or south. That's why our forecasts use broader zones to account for this variability, meaning not everyone within these zones will see the significant totals. Essentially, we're indicating that a location within this area could see the forecasted amount.
By late Wednesday, we could be talking about extreme snowfall totals in a zone including Rosseau, Parry Sound, Sprucedale, Burk’s Falls, and Sundridge, with 40 to 80cm of snow expected over the next two days. Local totals could reach triple digits, with 100cm not out of the question if an intense band persists over a particular location.
The Bruce Peninsula and northern Muskoka, including Huntsville, Port Sydney, and North Bay, can expect around 25 to 50cm of snow, although some areas might see less, depending on squall locations. The rest of Muskoka and Algonquin Park are looking at 10-30cm of snow. Central Ontario should see less than 10cm as squalls focus northeast of Georgian Bay.
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In the southern Niagara region, including Fort Erie and Port Colborne, snowfall totals could range from 25 to 50cm by Wednesday's end, with most snow coming on Wednesday. Prince Edward County, including Picton, may also see over 25cm of snow in the next few days.
East of Lake Huron, heavier snow is expected in higher elevations away from the shoreline. This includes Owen Sound, Hanover, and Wingham, where between 15-30cm of snow is anticipated, mostly arriving later on Wednesday as more organized lake effect activity begins. Along the shoreline, places like Kincardine and Goderich are forecasted to see less than 10cm of snow.
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In Northeastern Ontario, relentless snow squall activity is likely between the Sault Ste. Marie and Wawa corridor, with snowfall totals ranging from 40-80cm. Some spots could far exceed 80cm, particularly just south of Wawa where the squalls will be most intense. Snowfall totals will quickly decrease further away from Lake Superior.
