‘Ice/Fog Day’ Forecast: Significant Freezing Rain Almost Certain to Cancel School Buses on Thursday in Eastern Ontario
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As of Wednesday evening, Eastern Ontario is experiencing ongoing prolonged freezing rain, expected to continue throughout the night. Although the freezing rain will lessen after midnight, it will significantly affect road conditions by morning. Consequently, there is a high likelihood of school bus cancellations in many regions on Thursday.
Additionally, foggy conditions are affecting Southwestern Ontario and parts of the Golden Horseshoe. The fog is anticipated to thicken overnight and linger into the morning, potentially leading to localized bus cancellations in rural areas around London and east of Lake Huron.
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The greatest chance of an ‘ice day’ is in much of Eastern Ontario, excluding Ottawa. Rural school boards in this area have a 90% chance of school bus cancellations, while the City of Ottawa has a 75% chance, as this school board is typically more stringent with cancellations. We don’t expect the conditions to be safe for bus operations, but some school boards, particularly in urban areas with less reliance on buses, might decide differently.
In parts of Central Ontario, including Muskoka, Haliburton, Kawartha Lake, Peterborough, northern Durham, and northern Simcoe County, the probability of an ‘ice day’ remains fairly strong. Chances range from 25% in the more western and southern areas to 75% in Peterborough and Haliburton.
These lower chances are due to the expected less intense freezing rain and ending earlier in the night, potentially allowing roads to be cleared in time for the morning bus run. However, this will heavily depend on local road conditions, and the actual probability could be higher, though we don’t have enough confidence to increase these estimates.
In Southwestern Ontario, there is a low chance of a ‘fog day’ in areas around London, including Middlesex, Oxford, and Elgin counties, which experienced cancellations on Wednesday. The surrounding regions have a 5% chance, as cancellations can't be entirely ruled out, but most school boards are expected to operate as usual.
Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.
