‘Winter Storm Day’ Forecast: Looming Winter Storm Threat Could Cancel School Buses in Parts of Southern Ontario on Tuesday
/
NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE
A winter storm is on the horizon for Southern Ontario, anticipated to bring a diverse mix of precipitation starting Tuesday morning. This system is set to deliver significant snowfall in some regions, while others will experience a combination of snow, ice pellets, freezing rain, and rain. Consequently, Environment Canada has issued various weather alerts, including winter storm warnings, snowfall warnings, and special weather statements.
The impending storm is likely to lead to poor road conditions, raising the possibility of school bus cancellations on Tuesday. However, the timing of the storm complicates matters. The most severe conditions are expected to begin Tuesday afternoon and persist into early Wednesday. Morning conditions are not anticipated to be overly severe in most areas, but they are expected to deteriorate as the day progresses.
As a result, school boards and bus companies would need to proactively cancel bus services on Tuesday to avoid the hazardous travel conditions anticipated for the afternoon commute. Historically, the decision to proactively cancel buses has varied among school boards. The forecast heavily relies on boards with a history of proactive cancellations which are more likely to do so again, compared to those that are less inclined to cancel.
The areas of Parry Sound, North Bay, Bancroft, and Pembroke face the highest likelihood of a snow day, with bus cancellation probabilities ranging from 75 to 90%. Given the strong warning from Environment Canada and the tendency of these school boards to cancel buses based on weather warnings, a snow day in these regions seems highly probable.
For the rest of Eastern and Central Ontario, the situation is less clear and largely dependent on individual school board decisions. The Ottawa school board, being more urban, typically requires more severe conditions to cancel buses, especially given that the Environment Canada warning states the worst conditions start late on Tuesday.
Further south, the north and west areas of the Greater Toronto Area have about a 25% chance of school bus cancellations. In contrast, the more urban school boards in the Golden Horseshoe region are less likely to cancel buses as the expected impact of the storm is relatively lower.
In Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Niagara region, the probability of a snow day is approximately 5%. While snow is expected during the morning hours, it may not be sufficient to warrant cancellations.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, there's an increased likelihood of widespread snow day potential throughout Central and Eastern Ontario.
Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.
