Severe Thunderstorm Risk on Tuesday Close to Southwestern Ontario
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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in the United States has identified a 15% severe risk area in their Day 4 thunderstorm outlook for Tuesday, February 27, 2024.
This 15% severe risk zone is approaching Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor. Currently, it stops just shy of Detroit, but the SPC's trend has been to extend it progressively northeast with each new forecast update.
The SPC's forecast states, “As thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the late afternoon and early evening, a severe threat is expected from the Ozarks northward into the southern Great Lakes. Wind-damage, and perhaps a few tornadoes would be possible with supercells and/or the stronger bowing line segments.”
Although it's unlikely for the severe threat to cross the border at this stage, the proximity to Windsor will make it something to watch. The potential for an isolated storm, primarily presenting strong wind gusts as a threat, cannot be entirely dismissed.
Regardless of the severe threat, we're on the cusp of a welcome warm-up, accompanied by a few non-severe thunderstorms expected between Tuesday and Wednesday.
Stay tuned as we continue to monitor the situation and will provide updates as it evolves.
