‘Ice Day’ Forecast: Potential School Bus Cancellations on Wednesday in Southern Ontario Due to Expected Flash Freeze Risk
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After witnessing record-breaking temperatures and widespread thunderstorms on Tuesday, we're bracing for a drastic shift as Wednesday approaches. This shift will occur as a sharp decrease in temperatures beginning late Wednesday morning and lasting throughout the day.
Consequently, the rapid temperature drop—from double digits to below freezing in mere hours—will likely result in flash freeze conditions on the roads. Environment Canada has issued warnings regarding the flash freeze threat throughout Central and Eastern Ontario. Though the flash freeze is anticipated across all of Southern Ontario, the temperature decline will be more significant in areas under the warning.
Regarding school bus cancellations, the timing is particularly problematic as the temperature drop will not start until after the morning bus routes. This situation necessitates that school boards preemptively cancel afternoon bus services based on the forecast. Traditionally, they have relied on Environment Canada alerts for such decisions, and as of Tuesday evening, warnings have been issued only for Central and Eastern Ontario. The rest of Southern Ontario is under a special weather statement or no alert at all.
Central Ontario has the highest likelihood of school bus cancellations, coinciding with the warnings in effect and specifically citing Wednesday afternoon for the expected flash freeze. We've assigned these areas a 75 to 90% chance of an 'ice day,' confident that the warning will suffice to prompt bus cancellations.
For Eastern Ontario, where the warning indicates a flash freeze during the evening, it seems less probable that school boards will cancel buses. Here, the chances range from 25-50%; we can't dismiss the possibility entirely, but it appears to be unlikely.
Those in Southwestern Ontario will encounter the temperature dip earlier in the day, so we've estimated a 25 to 50% chance of an 'ice day' there since it will likely have a larger impact on the afternoon bus run. These odds could increase substantially if Environment Canada extends the flash freeze warning by the morning.
As for the Golden Horseshoe area, the decision by school boards to cancel buses is more uncertain; they typically require more extreme conditions, such as significant snowfall, for cancellations. Here, the probability of cancellations ranges from 5 to 10%.
Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.
