Severe Storms Could Bring Golf Ball-Sized Hail & Isolated Tornado Risk to Parts of Southwestern Ontario Late Tuesday
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Are Tornado Tuesdays making a comeback this year in Southern Ontario? It seems that the first full week of May will begin on a stormy note, with a looming severe thunderstorm risk starting Tuesday evening in Deep Southwestern Ontario.
However, the severe threat will be very localized, focusing on Windsor, Amherstburg, Pelee Island, and Leamington. Based on the latest data, the environment in these areas could support the development of storms capable of producing large hail.
Severe wind gusts are also possible, but the main concern is hail, as these storms are expected to be fairly elevated. The hail could be quite large, potentially reaching the size of ping-pong balls or even golf balls.
Regarding the tornado threat, the elevated nature of these storms should limit the potential for any rotation to reach the surface and produce a tornado.
However, there is a fairly strong environment stateside that could support tornadic activity, and we can’t completely rule out a rogue storm. This is especially true around Leamington and Pelee Island, where the environment is strongest.
Isolated storms are expected to begin popping up over Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio sometime during the late afternoon and early evening. This is where the severe risk will be the strongest, likely leading to several tornadoes and very large hail.
As these storms mature later in the evening, they will track towards Deep Southwestern Ontario around 8 to 11 PM. There is some uncertainty about how well these storms will maintain their strength due to the lack of daylight heating and the cold waters of Lake Erie, which prevent the environment from extending too far north into our region. If the storms arrive earlier than expected, the severe threat could increase, as daylight heating will still be in effect and help fuel the storms.
Widespread non-severe thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across Southwestern Ontario and into parts of the Golden Horseshoe around midnight. At this point, the storms are not expected to pose any severe threats, but small hail and strong wind gusts cannot be completely ruled out.
Those around Georgian Bay and into Northeastern Ontario, including Sudbury and North Bay, could be awakened by some noisy storms early Wednesday morning. These storms are also expected to remain non-severe.
