Severe Thunderstorms & Isolated Tornado Possible on Saturday for the Ottawa Valley
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Another day of stormy weather is expected across parts of Central and Eastern Ontario for Saturday afternoon and evening. As of noon on Saturday, isolated storms have already begun developing over Algonquin Park and east of Muskoka. These storms are expected to track eastward throughout the afternoon and could bring damaging wind gusts, large hail, and possibly an isolated tornado.
While Friday was mostly a 'bust' regarding severe weather in Southern Ontario, there is much more confidence in today's environment. We have a 'slight' (level 2) severe risk for much of the Ottawa Valley, including Bancroft, Pembroke, Renfrew, Smiths Falls, and Ottawa. Storm threats include damaging wind gusts up to 100 km/h, toonie-sized hail, and the risk of an isolated tornado.
The rest of Eastern Ontario, extending into Central Ontario, has a 'marginal' (level 1) risk, with severe activity expected to be more isolated compared to the Ottawa Valley. If storms develop in this area, the main threats will be quarter-sized hail, marginally severe wind gusts, and localized flooding.
Based on the latest model data, a strong storm is expected to develop somewhere around the Barry’s Bay and Bancroft region over the next few hours. It will gradually track north and east towards Renfrew and possibly Ottawa, although it might cross the border into Quebec before reaching Ottawa. This storm will have the potential to bring all severe weather threats, including large hail, damaging wind gusts, and an isolated tornado.
While that cell will be the main concern of the day if it develops, additional storm development could occur around Peterborough into Smiths Falls. These storms could also bring some severe risks as they track northeast throughout the late afternoon into the early evening.
The rest of Southern Ontario, with the exception of Southwestern Ontario, may see occasional non-severe pop-up storms throughout the day, but most areas will likely stay dry. We expect the storm threat to diminish after around 9-10 PM as any existing storms cross over into Quebec.
