BARRIE TORNADO: Survey Results and Timeline
/After Barrie was impacted on Thursday by an EF2 tornado with windspeeds reaching as high as 210km/h, we decided to post a survey that was targeted specifically to Barrie residents and we received an incredible response. Thank you so much to all those who participated and our most heartfelt thoughts remain with those who were injured and affected by not only the Barrie tornado but all five EF2 tornadoes from Thursday’s outbreak (more details on the other tornadoes further down the page).
There has been a lot of debate online and throughout the community regarding whether the Tornado Warning at 2:38 PM from Environment Canada arrived in a timely manner for those who were impacted in south Barrie. To clarify, we're not posting these results to cast shade on Environment Canada. We do, however, feel that it is important to share the facts and learn from what happened by analyzing the data.
SURVEY RESULTS:
Out of 1,470 survey responses, 106 reported damage in Barrie and 21 of those experienced significant damage.
Of the 106 with damage:
- 2 received the Tornado Warning before it hit (2%)
- 24 received the Tornado Warning while the tornado was already occurring (23%)
- 80 received the Tornado Warning after the tornado had passed (75%)
Of the 21 with significant damage:
- 0 received the Tornado Warning in advance (0%)
- 7 received the Tornado Warning while the tornado was already occurring (33%)
- 14 received the Tornado Warning after the tornado had passed (67%)
TIMELINE:
At 12:24 AM, just after midnight, we shared our forecast map on our website, Facebook and Twitter pages that specifically mentioned Lake Simcoe and a tornado risk.
“The areas at the highest risk of these storms include much of the same areas hit hard on Tuesday stretching from Lake Huron to the northeast through Lake Simcoe and into Central Ontario. Storms are expected to develop during the early afternoon and could pose a strong wind gust, large hail and tornado risk early in their lifespan.”
Link: https://twitter.com/IWeatherON/status/1415527572105015296
At 11:16 AM, Environment Canada posted a forecast map on Twitter that highlighted Barrie in a severe thunderstorm risk and a possible tornado risk if you read the legend for the “B” zone.
Link: https://twitter.com/ECCCWeatherON/status/1415691766611783680
At 11:46 AM, Environment Canada updated their marine alert, a “Squall Watch” for Lake Simcoe to include the risk of a waterspout.
“Conditions will become favourable for severe thunderstorms this afternoon as a cold front moves in from Michigan. Squalls to 50 knots are the main threat. There will also be the risk for a waterspout.”
Link: https://twitter.com/IWeatherON/status/1415696359500521475/
At 11:59 AM, Environment Canada issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch with the specific mention that a tornado was possible.
“Hazards: Damaging wind gusts of 90 to 110 km/h nickel-sized hail heavy downpours a tornado is also possible”.
Link: https://twitter.com/IWeatherON/status/1415702467665399816/
At 1:23 PM, we reposted our forecast map to Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram and updated it, mentioning concern about many of the areas that would eventually see a tornado that day:
”Concerned about the potential for one or two tornadoes through the Simcoe County, Kawartha Lakes, Muskoka, Haliburton region and up into Algonquin Park/Pembroke. Models consistently have a bullseye around this region and at the very least we can expect damaging wind gusts and large hail.”
Link: https://www.facebook.com/OntarioTornadoWatch/posts/4164247426999723/
At 1:43 PM, we noticed that the storms near Creemore (west of Barrie) were beginning to show developing rotation on velocity radar (wind radar) and we sent out a “Minor Rotation Detected” notification to all of those in southwest Barrie through our free mobile app Instant Weather, our Text Message Alerts subscription service, and through social media specifically mentioning these rotating storms were potentially heading towards Barrie and could produce and isolated tornado in their lifespan. However, we did mention that it may miss Barrie to the north.
”We've detected minor rotation on this storm near #Badjeros, moving east, northeast towards #Creemore. It may eventually reach #Angus, and potentially #Barrie as it continues to track east. However it may miss Barrie to the north. In rare cases, minor rotation can produce a funnel cloud or even an isolated tornado in its lifespan. Please be safe in the path of this storm and if it strengthens on radar, we will post a further update.”
Link: https://twitter.com/IWeatherON/status/1415728775631937556/
At 1:48 PM, Environment Canada issued a “Squall Warning” for Lake Simcoe that mentioned the risk for a waterspout.
“A cluster of thunderstorms from near Collingwood to Shelburne is moving eastward at 40 knots and is expected to reach Lake Simcoe just after 2:00 P.M. Wind gusts of 40 knots and frequent Cloud to ground lightning will be associated with some of these storms. There is also the risk for a waterspout.”
Link: https://twitter.com/IWeatherON/status/1415730108061605891/
At 2:20 PM, we started discussing the strengthening rotation on our livestream to Facebook, Twitter, Twitch, and YouTube.
We mentioned how it was moving into south Barrie and had the potential to produce a tornado as it was a classic super-cell with strengthening rotation:
Link to exactly 2:20 PM: https://youtu.be/yBowwR4yZ1k?t=1247
At 2:28 PM, Environment Canada issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Barrie. However, it did not specifically mention the risk for a tornado.
”At 2:28 P.M. Edt, Environment Canada meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm capable of producing very strong wind gusts and up to nickel size hail. This severe thunderstorm is located near Utopia, moving East at 65 km/h. Hazard: 110 km/h wind gusts and nickel size hail. Locations impacted include: Barrie, Innisfil, South Barrie, Georgina, Sutton, Utopia, Essa, Stroud, Kempenfelt Bay, Belhaven and Baldwin.”
Link: https://twitter.com/IWeatherON/status/1415740132230115330/
At 2:30 PM, likely a minute or two before touchdown, we sent out a “Rotation Detected” notification to all of southern Barrie and the surrounding communities to the south via our free mobile app Instant Weather, our Text Message Alerts subscription service, and through social media, mentioning the potential for this storm to produce and isolated tornado.
“We've detected rotation on this storm moving east of #Angus into southern #Barrie, and eventually #Stroud. Rotation on radar indicates the potential for this storm to produce a funnel cloud or even an isolated tornado in its lifespan. It may also have the risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, isolated flooding, and frequent lightning.”
Link: https://twitter.com/IWeatherON/status/1415740615267168257/
At 2:32 PM, likely just as the tornado was touching down, we posted to social media saying urging residents of Barrie to take shelter and that the storm was likely producing an isolated tornado.
“If you’re in south #Barrie you need to be taking shelter right NOW! Visible rotation and hook on radar. This storm is likely producing a tornado or has the potential at any moment.”
Link: https://www.facebook.com/OntarioTornadoWatch/posts/4164402510317548
At 2:38 PM, Environment Canada issued a Tornado Warning for Barrie.
”At 2:38 P.M. Edt, Environment Canada meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm that is possibly producing a tornado. Damaging winds, large hail and locally intense rainfall are also possible.
A severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado is located near South Barrie, moving East at 65 km/h. Hazard: 110 km/h wind gusts and nickel size hail. A tornado is also possible.
Source: Radar indicated.
Locations impacted include: Barrie, Innisfil, South Barrie, Sibbald Point Provincial Park, Stroud, Kempenfelt Bay, Georgina Island and Sunset Beach.”
Link: https://twitter.com/IWeatherON/status/1415742667875622920/
This timeline above was only the beginning of this event as four more EF2 tornadoes touched down after Barrie was impacted. We tracked many of them on our livestream and we’re so grateful that we have such a wonderful and passionate community that most certainly helped us get the word out in advance by sharing updates to their families and friends and by sending in critical reports when it was safe to do so. We’re also very thankful that we were able to complement Environment Canada’s efforts during dangerous events like this one and we can’t say how relieved we are that there were no fatalities with five EF2 tornadoes.
Here is the preliminary list of confirmed tornadoes from July 15th, 2021:
- Barrie, ON (2:30 PM) - Wind Speed: 210km/h | Track: 12km
- Zephyr/Little Britain, ON (3:20 PM) - Wind Speed: 195km/h | Track: 30km
- Lorneville, ON (3:25 PM) - Wind Speed: 180km/h | Track: 13km
- Dwight, ON (4:15 PM) - Wind Speed: 190km/h | Track: 4.76km
- Lake Traverse, ON (5:10 PM) - Wind Speed: 190km/h | Track: 11.9km
Drone data is still being analyzed by the NTP so there could be some minor changes to the details. Additional tornadoes may also be confirmed later. We’ll be posting more updates as further information is revealed about the other four tornadoes. Thank you for your patience as we gather that information and please send any photos, videos or reports to us at help@InstantWeather.ca
And lastly, below is an interview we did with Natalie Harris about her terrifying experience as the Barrie tornado destroyed the house she was staying in.
We cannot mention enough how relieved and grateful we are that there were no fatalities or life-threatening injuries on Thursday and our thoughts remain with those who were injured and affected by the five tornadoes. More details ASAP.
