Strong Severe Thunderstorm Risk for Central & Southern Alberta on Thursday

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As we continue to experience temperatures in the 30s across Alberta, relief is on the way with cooler temperatures moving into the Northwestern regions of the province Thursday and spreading southward throughout the day. This cooler air, however, will trigger the development of some strong severe storms in parts of Central and Southern Alberta beginning in the evening and continuing into the overnight hours.

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The initial storm activity is anticipated to start in Central Alberta, in the Southern Foothills and into the Red Deer area around 5-7pm. These storms are expected to travel southeastward into the Drumheller region and Southern Alberta through the evening and overnight before crossing into Saskatchewan. Additional storm development could occur as the cooler air continues to push south into the Calgary area, resulting in strong storms eventually reaching Medicine Hat after midnight.

Models are suggesting that the environment will be favourable for the development of supercells that could produce up to golf ball sized hail or potentially even larger. Destructive wind gusts in excess of 120km/h are also a distinct possibility with these storms. At this time, the risk of a tornado seems isolated, but it can not be completely ruled out.

Strong Severe Thunderstorm Risk for Parts of Saskatchewan & Manitoba on Friday

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The Victoria Day long weekend is poised to start on a stormy note in parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba due to a potential severe thunderstorm risk on Friday.

Warm air is expected to surge into Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba during the day on Friday, with temperatures soaring into the mid to upper 20s. This heat will act as the perfect catalyst for thunderstorm activity, which is likely to begin as early as Friday afternoon.

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The initial storm activity is expected to start in Southeastern Saskatchewan along the border with Manitoba around 1 to 3 PM. Additional storm development may occur south of the border over North Dakota before tracking into Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba by late afternoon.

Further north, some isolated storms may also develop around Melville and Kamsack before moving into the Roblin and Dauphin areas in Manitoba by late afternoon or early evening.

There are indications that the environment in this area will be quite favourable for the development of supercells that could produce extremely large hail, up to the size of golf balls or larger.

Damaging wind gusts are also a possibility, although the wind threat seems to be less of a concern compared to the hail risk. One or two tornadoes are also possible as these storms track towards the Interlake region.

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The storms to the southwest are expected to merge with those isolated storms around the Dauphin region and form one main line stretching from Ashern to Winkler by early evening. By this point, the complex of storms will mostly pose a marginal to slight severe wind and hail risk. The tornado threat will be lower compared to earlier in the day, but a brief spin-up cannot be completely ruled out.

The storm system will continue to move east towards the Ontario border, reaching Winnipeg between 9 and 11 PM and crossing over into Ontario just after midnight.

For Winnipeg, it's uncertain how strong the storm will be by the time it reaches the city since it will occur well after sunset and the line of storms will be gradually weakening. The most probable storm threats include hail up to the size of quarters, wind gusts up to 90 km/h, and heavy rain along with lots of lightning.