Battle of the Seasons Across Southern Ontario on Christmas With a ‘White’ Christmas Almost Certain for Central and Eastern Ontario

This Christmas will be the story of two different seasons across Southern Ontario with a Green Christmas expected for much of Southwestern Ontario into the GTA, but further to the north, we will see the cold air hold on just long enough to maintain the existing snow on the ground and allow for a White Christmas. This won’t be a typical White Christmas as there will also be the threat of freezing rain during the morning hours on Christmas Day through Central and Eastern Ontario. Since temperatures will still be below the freezing mark, it shouldn’t melt any of the existing snowfall though it’ll be quite icy and slushy.

Temperatures rising above the freezing mark overnight into early Christmas morning combined with some rainfall are expected across the Windsor, Sarnia, London, Hamilton and Toronto corridor. This means that even if you have some snow on the ground tonight, it likely won’t be there when you wake up in the morning. Those over the higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands and Grey-Bruce counties have a better chance as the temperatures will only get slightly above the freezing mark along with a more extensive snowpack from lake effect snow earlier in the week.

For more details on the freezing rain risk for Christmas Day, click on the image above to read our full forecast.

There is some uncertainty around the Simcoe County region and along the Georgian Bay shoreline which is dependent on how fast the temperature rises overnight. We believe the snowpack should be enough to hold on even with several hours above freezing. This is why we have a fairly expansive 75% zone as if we see a faster switch over to rain earlier in the overnight it could wash away most of the accumulation. However, this doesn’t seem likely at this point. To the northeast of Lake Simcoe, a White Christmas is practically guaranteed at this point, but again the freezing rain could make it quite sloppy and icy. As long as there is still 2cm of some type of snow on the ground in the morning then it’ll count as a White Christmas.