Potential Late-Week Snowstorm Could Bring Over 20cm of Snow and Blizzard Conditions to Southern Ontario
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NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.
Forecaster: Brennen Perry
Published: Tuesday, February 28, 2023
While Wednesday marks the first day of meteorological spring, Mother Nature has other plans with yet another impactful storm on the way. Our concern for this system has continued to grow over the past few days as models consistently point towards a potential significant snowfall across a wide swath of Southern Ontario. It appears the snow will start midday on Friday and continue overnight into Saturday. Strong wind gusts approaching 50-80km/h could lead to blowing snow and even blizzard conditions in some areas.
The tricky part with this system is narrowing down the exact path which dictates who gets the highest snowfall totals. We are still several days away and models have been split into two scenarios. So far the most consistent scenario currently shared by the American and Canadian models (with the Canadian slightly more south) has the centre of the low-pressure tracking south of Lake Erie. This would mostly keep our region on the colder side of the system, leading to predominantly a heavy snowfall event.
As shown on our first map above for Scenario #1, the highest snowfall totals would extend from Lake Huron through the GTA and into Southeastern Ontario. While we aren’t going to get too specific about snowfall totals as it’s too early, we can say there is a good chance those regions will see well over 20cm of accumulation in this scenario. The American model (GFS) has been particularly aggressive regarding snowfall totals showing widespread 30-40cm which would be very significant. This is more of the worst-case scenario, but it’s important to mention, as it can become a reality which we saw last winter.
For Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Niagara region, they will see a mix of mainly ice pellets and snow along with some freezing rain. They could also see significant snowfall accumulation, but confidence is lower due to the potential for ice pellets reducing the overall totals. Less snow will be found to the north across Central and Eastern Ontario. Although there is some disagreement on the exact location of the cut-off of the extreme northern edge of this system. Expect up to 10-15cm in the more southern sections of Central and Eastern Ontario, slowly dropping off closer to 5cm as you get further north.
NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.
On the other hand, the European model has been suggesting a different scenario that has the system further to the north. A more northern track takes the centre of the low pressure to the north of Lake Erie. As a result, this would put the heaviest bands of snow over Central and Eastern Ontario which we’ve outlined in our map for Scenario #2. While those in Southwestern Ontario and along the Golden Horseshoe see a messy mix of snow, ice pellets, freezing rain and rain as they end up right on the line between the cold and warm air.
This would be quite similar to the last few events we have seen across Southern Ontario, however, it does appear there will be less of a freezing rain component to this storm. The main precipitation types will be snow, ice pellets and even rain depending on which scenario wins out. There will be more moisture for this system to work with as it taps into the Gulf of Mexico and will be overall stronger based on the pressure. So the impacts of this storm will likely differ compared to the past few storms and likely not in a good way.
Strong wind gusts combined with intense snowfall rates will lead to blinding whiteouts at the height of this event and may even result in some road/highway closures late Friday into Saturday. There could be a significant impact on the evening commute on Friday depending on the exact timing. It’s right on the fence and hopefully is delayed by a few hours to push the worst impact into the overnight hours when fewer people are on the roads.
Again, lots can change between now and Friday, but the confidence is slowly growing in some form of an impactful winter storm across Southern Ontario to end the weekend. Somewhere in Southern Ontario is going to likely see over 20cm between Friday and Saturday. This isn’t a guarantee that a specific location will see a major snowfall. The potential is there which is our focus - we want you to be prepared for the worst, but hope for the best! We will continue to monitor each new set of model data and provide more precise details throughout the week. Stay tuned!
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