UPDATE: Friday’s Snowmaker Stronger Than Expected and Could Deliver Up to 20cm of Snow to Parts of Southwestern Ontario and Golden Horseshoe
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NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.
Forecaster: Brennen Perry
Published: Thursday, March 9, 2023
As we end yet another week with some active weather, the latest data is indicating increased snowfall totals courtesy of a system that is expected to affect Southern Ontario on Friday.
The heaviest snow will be found in Deep Southwestern Ontario including Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia and London. These areas could see between 10 and 20cm starting early Friday morning and lasting through the afternoon.
Another zone southwest of Lake Ontario including Burlington, Hamilton and Grimsby could see some lake enhancement leading to snowfall totals near 20cm.
SNOWFALL TIMING
NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.
The timing of this event is roughly unchanged from our initial forecast. We expect that the snow will begin starting in the far southwestern portion of our region during the early morning hours on Friday. Locations including Windsor and Sarnia will be the first to feel the impact of this system as it moves in from Michigan.
The heaviest snow will arrive just in time for the morning rush-hour throughout Southwestern Ontario with poor travel conditions from Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia and into London. Expect some delays and even some school bus cancellations can’t be ruled out so some children could get an early start to the March Break! More details on the chance of a ‘snow day’ will be covered in our nightly school bus cancellation forecast shortly.
By the late morning, we will start to see the initial bands of snow moving into the Golden Horseshoe bringing steady snowfall with a focus on the more western part of the region. This will continue throughout the morning and into the afternoon.
As mentioned, some locally heavier pockets of snow could develop over the higher elevations of the Niagara and Hamilton region southwest of Lake Ontario. This includes the Hamilton Mountain and Grimsby area with lake enhancement off Lake Ontario developing during the afternoon on Friday.
The snow is expected to taper off from west to east by the late afternoon and fully clear out of Southern Ontario just before the end of Friday.
SNOWFALL totals
NOTE: You can click on the map to open a zoomable image which will be easier to read.
Total snowfall accumulation will be the highest in Southwestern Ontario with a general 10 to 20cm in locations including Windsor, Leamington, Chatham, Sarnia, London and St. Thomas. Parts of the Hamilton and Niagara region could also see up to 20cm thanks to the lake enhancement off Lake Ontario. It’s even possible that some localized pockets pick up over 20cm.
The rest of Southwestern Ontario from Goderich, K/W and into the Western GTA can expect around 8-16cm of snow. There will be a very tight gradient between the higher snowfall totals and trace accumulation so confidence is a little lower in the 2-6cm and 4-8cm zones including Toronto, York Region and Barrie.
We currently think Toronto will get around 5-7cm give or take a few centimetres while totals decrease to the north. Although there is the potential for some overachieving totals depending on where the lake enhancement sets up in the GTA. Little to no accumulation will be found in Central and Eastern Ontario.
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