A swath of accumulating snow courtesy of a system that is expected to move across Northern Ontario during the day on Wednesday. However, the extent of this snow and the exact locations impacted remains unclear.
Lake effect snow and snow squalls may develop off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay through Tuesday. However, there is low confidence in the areas impacted and exactly how much snow is possible at this point.
Accumulating snow is possible through parts of Southwestern Ontario and into the GTA as some light to moderate snowfall and lake effect snow moves through the area. However, the areas affected and exactly how much snow is possible remains unclear at this point.
Snow squalls may yet again impacts areas around Georgian Bay and Lake Huron with a focus on those regions southeast of the lakes. This includes Barrie, Collingwood, Angus, Goderich, Stratford, London and Grand Bend where locally up to 15-25cm of snowfall accumulation by the end of Friday when the squalls weaken. A map for this event will be issued on Thursday once the affected regions are more clear.
Another area extending from Algonquin Park through the Ottawa Valley may see snowfall accumulation between 5-10cm as a weak system swings through their early Friday. Although some models suggest the heavier snow will stay in Northeastern Ontario and over Quebec so we are waiting to issue a map.
Accumulating snow from Sunday may continue into early Monday through Northeastern Ontario where an additional 5-10cm is possible, but there is low confidence on the exact locations impacted. Snow squalls may also continue east of Lake Superior.
Snow squalls are expected to affect areas east of Lake Huron along with regions southeast of Georgian Bay during the day on Monday. This could bring rapid snowfall accumulation and near-zero visibility. However, there is some uncertainty on the placement of these squalls which will determine who sees the highest totals. We will have a full snow squall outlook published sometime on Sunday.
Lake effect snow and localized squalls are possible east of Lake Superior on Thursday which could bring up to 10-20cm to the Marathon and Wawa area. However, confidence in the exact location of the lake effect snow is low at this point.
Lake effect snow may develop during the afternoon on Thursday and continue into Friday for areas east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. However, confidence in locations impacted and the exact accumulation is unclear at this point.
A messy system is expected to affect Southern Ontario throughout Sunday and into Monday. This could bring accumulating snow to some parts of the region. Although there is some uncertainty on the exact temperature which would have a huge impact on the potential accumulation. More details in a special forecast to be issued on Saturday.
Lake effect flurries may develop around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay throughout the day on Saturday. However, confidence is low in the exact amount of accumulation and the locations affected.
Some more lake effect flurries are expected yet again for Thursday although the exact intensity and affect areas are unclear at this point.
Lake effect showers with wet flurries mixed in will continue to affect regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay into Wednesday. Although it is currently unclear how widespread the risk of flurries will be so we’ll be waiting until Tuesday evening to issue an outlook for the snow. Although any accumulation will be under 5cm.
Scattered lake effect precipitation will continue through Tuesday affecting areas east of Georgian Bay and Lake Huron. Depending on the temperature, some areas may see the precipitation come in the form of some wet snow and could even accumulate mainly during the early morning hours when temperatures are colder. The risk for lake effect snow includes the Muskoka, Simcoe County, Bancroft, Dundalk Highlands and Grey-Bruce regions. Accumulation mainly in the higher elevations could reach up to 5cm by the end of Tuesday although it will likely be melted.
Scattered flurries are expected to affect Northern Ontario during the day on Monday although it’s unclear if there will be any noticeable accumulation of 5cm or more. We will continue to go over the latest data and issue an updated outlook by Sunday evening.
Lake effect showers are expected to continue through Monday around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. By late Monday we may see the showers transition over to some wet flurries in higher elevation east of Georgian Bay and over the Dundalk Highlands. This may continue overnight and into Tuesday morning. No significant accumulation is expected at this time, but we’re watching and will issue an outlook on Sunday evening.
Inclement weather isn’t currently expected in the forecasted region on this day.
Heavy rainfall is expected to affect areas around Lake Erie during the day on Friday and continuing into Sunday. Some locations may receive rainfall totals in excess of 25mm in some localized pockets particularly through Extreme Southwestern Ontario and into the Niagara region. Although confidence is low at this point in the exact amount of rain as it depends on the track of the system.
Frost is possible throughout a big part of Southern Ontario including even Southwestern Ontario and the GTA. However, confidence is very low in exactly how cold it will get which will determine if frost occurs or not. We will have our frost outlook for Sunday sometime Saturday night once we get the latest information.
Another chilly start to the day is expected for Saturday morning across Southern Ontario. This will also bring the risk for frost in some areas including Central and Eastern Ontario primarily along the Quebec border and higher elevations to the northwest of the GTA. A few days ago it looked like there might be the potential for the season’s first flurries in more northern parts of Southern Ontario. However, there is a lack of precipitation during the time when the temperatures are favourable for flurries. So right now it seems unlikely but we can’t rule it out if we get some lake effect precipitation around Georgian Bay.
Some flurries are possible throughout Northern Ontario on Friday although very limited accumulation is expected. This will be covered in our outlook issued Thursday evening.
