Late Season Significant Severe Risk for Southern Ontario on Tuesday (Sep. 7); Destructive Wind Gusts, Large Hail and Tornadoes Possible

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Forecast Discussion

It’s the unofficial end to summer as the Labour Day long weekend is behind us, but Mother Nature apparently missed the memo. We’re watching what could be a quite prolific severe risk across some parts of Southern Ontario on Tuesday. The strongest risk will be found along the Lake Huron shoreline and east of Georgian Bay as a line of storm is expected to develop over Lake Huron during the late afternoon and track through the region during the evening hours.

There is still some uncertainty with this event particularly with timing as there is some data the indicates storms could reach our region later in the day. If this happens, there will be a weaker environment for the storms to take advantage of so they won’t be as severe. The current consensus does seem to favour the earlier solution which is why we’ve chosen to go with a significant severe risk, but this could change by tomorrow so adjustments may be required.

As usual with these events, these storms will come with large hail, destructive wind gusts and even a fairly strong tornado risk earlier in their lifespan. Later in the evening, we do expect the storms to transition into more of a strong wind gust risk as they track to the east. We should see the severe risk dissipate later in the evening although strong non-severe storms are possible through Eastern Ontario during the overnight hours.

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Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Monday, September 6, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

A few isolated storms are possible through Central and Eastern Ontario during the early morning hours on Monday. However, these storms will be extremely isolated and fairly weak so an outlook isn’t being issued for this event.

Northern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Sunday, September 5, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of Northeastern Ontario during the day on Sunday. These storms should remain quite weak with small hail, strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall the main threats.

Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Sunday, September 5, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

Moderate to heavy rainfall will make its way across Southern Ontario on Sunday mainly during the morning and early afternoon. Within this area of rainfall, we expect that there will be some embedded non-severe thunderstorms with the main risk through Central, Eastern and Northeastern Ontario. These storms should remain quite weak with heavy rainfall and a few lightning strikes although not everyone will see the thunderstorm activity.

Southern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Sunday, August 29, 2021

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FORECAST UPDATED - Sun, Aug. 29 @ 4:50 PM

FORECAST UPDATED - Sun, Aug. 29 @ 4:50 PM

UPDATED DISCUSSION

We've reviewed the latest data and have made some small adjustments to our map. The main one is expanding the severe risk zone to include more of Southwestern Ontario including London and Woodstock. Some models are showing some strong storm development in this area over the next few hours. Any isolated storms that we see develop late this afternoon could bring large hail, damaging wind gusts and even some tornadoes.

Already seeing a line of storms starting to form over Northern Michigan and about to track across Lake Huron. This line will likely bring some damaging wind gusts to areas along the Lake Huron and Georgian Bay shoreline later today and into the evening. A few tornadoes can't be ruled out either with the strongest risk through Northeastern Ontario, but still strong enough in Southwestern, Central and Eastern Ontario to see a brief spin up.

Forecast Discussion (OLD)

A very active weather day is expected across Southern Ontario with widespread severe risk during the afternoon and evening on Sunday. The environment is favourable for any storms that develop to become quite intense will all severe hazards (large hail, damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall). Current data suggests we’ll see some isolated pop-up storms during the afternoon along the Lake Huron shoreline and into Central Ontario around Lake Simcoe. These storms are where we have the risk for a few tornadoes along with very large hail.

We’re also expecting an organized line of severe storms to move across Lake Huron during the early evening stretching from Northeastern Ontario and down into Sarnia. This will track to the east bringing widespread wind gusts although there is some uncertainty about the coverage and severity of this second round of storms. The storm risk should come to an end around the midnight hour as the line of storms begins to weaken late in the evening.

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Northern Ontario: Thunderstorm Outlook for Sunday, August 29, 2021

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Forecast Discussion

There is a very strong risk for severe storms throughout the afternoon and evening in Northeastern Ontario on Sunday. These storms could bring the threat of very large hail, destructive wind gusts and even the potential for a few tornadoes. The strongest risk stretches from Sault Ste. Marie through Elliot Lake/Sudbury and into Timmins/Englehart. We should see the storm risk come to an towards the late evening as the storms move out over Quebec.