Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Friday, February 25, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

We are monitoring a system that now appears poised to bring more snowfall than previously indicated on Friday. The latest data has boosted the snow totals across Southern Ontario with widespread 10-15cm and even upwards of 20cm for parts of Eastern Ontario.

The first bands of precipitation have already reached the southwestern part of the province. Light to moderate snow will continue to spread to the northeast throughout the predawn hours on Friday and intensify through the GTA by 2-6 am and Central/Eastern Ontario by the late morning.

The timing of this event couldn’t be any worse for those commuting on Friday morning with the heaviest snow occurring around sunrise. This event will be more of a persistent moderate snowfall with hourly accumulation ranging from 1-3cm. As a result, travel will still be heavily impacted, but road crews should be able to keep up for the most part and shouldn’t be overwhelming.

Blowing snow could be an issue as 40-60km/h wind gusts combined with this light powdery snow are a recipe for reduced visibility. Based on the timing, school bus cancellations can’t be ruled out mainly in the more rural school boards as they tend to be more sensitive to weather conditions. See our snow day forecast here. Travel according to the conditions and if possible, delay any travel until later in the day. This will be a fairly fast-moving snowfall event as we expect it will taper off by the late morning for Southwestern Ontario and mid-afternoon in Eastern Ontario.

The biggest change compared to our initial forecast is the expected snowfall total. We have moved most regions up a level on our legend except for Southwestern Ontario. The highest totals will be found through Extreme Eastern Ontario including Kingston, Brockville and Cornwall with between 15-25cm of snow possible. The 12-20cm zone is now quite expansive including the rest of Eastern Ontario, parts of Central Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe.

Lower amounts are expected for Southwestern Ontario which should top out at somewhere around 6-12cm. Totals will decrease even further to the northwest with Northeastern Ontario only expected to pick up a few centimetres of fresh snow if anything at all.

It should be mentioned that this event does appear to have a significant lake enhancement element associated with it. What does this mean? Well, snowfall accumulation with these events tends to have quite an uneven distribution. For example, one location could see 20+cm of snow while just down the road there is less than half of that. Don’t be surprised to see some locations overachieve the forecast, but we believe it’s more realistic to focus on the overall general totals.

Conditions will rapidly improve later in the day on Friday leading into what appears to be a quiet weekend. May see some scattered flurries on Sunday for Central and Eastern Ontario, but nothing more than a few centimetres.

Northern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Tuesday, February 22 - Wednesday, February 23, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

A snowstorm is set to take aim at Northeastern Ontario starting early Tuesday morning and continuing into Wednesday. Sleet and freezing rain are possible around the Georgian Bay shoreline including Sudbury and North Bay which would help reduce the potential snowfall totals.

A fairly expansive zone that includes Thunder Bay through much of Northeastern Ontario like Maraton, Chapleau, Timmins and Cochrane will see around 20-30cm of snow from this storm. Locally higher totals closer to 35cm or even 40cm can’t be ruled out either. Accumulation will drop off further to the north where less moisture will be present and to the south where mixing is possible. The Sudbury and Kapuskasing region can expect between 10-20cm of snow. While North Bay should see around 5 -15cm of snow along with several hours of heavy sleet or freezing rain.

Blowing snow will also be an issue with wind gusts ranging from 40-60km/h making for difficult driving conditions. We should see an improvement after Wednesday morning as the system moves out of the region. If possible, try to avoid travel until Wednesday as it’s quite possible that this storm will lead to highway and road closures through Northeastern Ontario.

Southern Ontario: Snowfall Outlook for Saturday, February 19, 2022

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Forecast Discussion

An Alberta Clipper is set to slide across Southern Ontario tonight and continuing into Saturday morning. This will bring a brief, but an intense blast of heavy snow throughout Southwestern and Central Ontario combined with 60-80km/h wind gusts. The heavy snow and wind gusts will make for very poor visibility during the overnight hours and early Saturday morning leading to blowing snow and localized blizzard conditions. We expect the ‘true’ blizzard conditions will be contained to regions east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay where wind gusts will be slightly stronger and more intense snowfall rates. Blowing snow will still be an issue almost everywhere as the heavy bands of snow move through early Saturday.

Actual accumulation associated with this event will be fairly insignificant since it only lasts for a few hours. The main concern will be the reduced visibility during that timeframe. The heaviest snowfall totals will be found through regions east of Lake Huron along with Central and Northeastern Ontario ranging from 6-12cm of snow. Localized areas could pick up close to 15cm particularly east of Georgian Bay through the Muskoka region. Surrounding regions including Eastern Ontario, London and Barrie will pick up around 5cm in total from this system. A few centimetres of snow can be expected in Deep Southwestern Ontario and through the Golden Horseshoe as this will be heavily reliant on the lake enhancement from Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

Conditions should improve later in the day on Saturday, however, some lake effect snow may linger through the snow belt. All that should dissipate by the late afternoon.