‘Ice Day’ Forecast: Freezing Rain Risk Likely to Cancel School Buses on Tuesday in Parts of Southwestern Ontario
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CENTRAL & EASTERN ONTARIO HAVE LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE OF BUS CANCELLATIONS
A mix of messy precipitation is set to sweep into Southwestern Ontario overnight, with a freezing rain warning already in effect for Windsor and Chatham. This is expected to lead to icy road conditions, which will persist throughout Tuesday morning. Consequently, school bus cancellations are highly likely in the most severely affected areas.
The Windsor area is particularly at risk, with several hours of freezing rain forecasted overnight into Tuesday morning. The likelihood of an ‘ice day’ in this region stands at a high 90%. Meanwhile, the Chatham region faces a 75% chance of school bus cancellations.
As we move northeast, the probability of school bus cancellations diminishes slightly due to the later onset of precipitation. The Sarnia, Lambton, Middlesex, and Elgin regions have a 50% chance of cancellations. The City of London and nearby areas like Exeter, Stratford, and Oxford face a lower chance, at about 25%.
For the broader swath of Southwestern Ontario extending into the Greater Toronto Area, the likelihood of school bus cancellations is relatively low, ranging from 5 to 10%. While conditions may not be severe enough for most school boards to cancel buses, we cannot completely dismiss the possibility of one or two boards proactively cancelling in anticipation of the afternoon snowfall.
Central and Eastern Ontario are not expected to be impacted until later on Tuesday, so no cancellations are anticipated in these regions. As a result, our forecast map does not highlight these areas, given that the probability of cancellations there is below 5%.
Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.
