Parade of Snowstorms Take Aim at Ontario Over the Next Week Beginning With Up to 15-20cm of Snow This Weekend
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Winter in 2023 started sluggishly, but as the New Year unfolds, Ontario is witnessing a dramatic shift in weather patterns. The mild conditions that prevailed in late December have been replaced by colder air.
This transition is not just a mere drop in temperatures; it's also bringing a series of snowy systems. Over the coming week, these systems are poised to bring considerable snowfall to various regions across the province.
The first significant snowfall is expected over the weekend, thanks to two distinct weather systems. In the north, a system originating from the US Midwest will traverse Northern Ontario starting Saturday morning.
This will result in continuous snowfall across both Northwestern and Northeastern Ontario throughout the day. By Sunday morning, snow accumulations could reach 15-20cm in some areas.
Simultaneously, a robust system from the US East Coast is anticipated to make its way northward. The northwestern fringes of this system are expected to cross into Canada by late Saturday afternoon. However, there remains some uncertainty regarding its exact path, particularly as it interacts with the northern precipitation.
This uncertainty may affect the total snowfall, but the highest accumulations are likely in Extreme Eastern Ontario, along the St. Lawrence River. Some regions here might witness up to 15cm or more of fresh snow by the weekend's end. Additionally, lake enhancement along the western shores of Lake Ontario could result in up to 10cm of snowfall in parts of the Golden Horseshoe area.
Yet, this is merely the beginning. Another potential snowstorm, tracking through our region from late Tuesday into Wednesday, is under close observation. While there's significant uncertainty about this system's development, it's highly probable that some areas in Ontario will receive over 30cm of snow.
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Snow has already started in Northwestern Ontario, near the international border, as of Friday evening. This snowfall is expected to intensify overnight and continue into Saturday morning. During these hours, the steady snow will gradually spread eastward, reaching Northeastern Ontario by the afternoon. Minor lake enhancement near Lake Superior might result in slightly heavier snowfall rates.
As we progress into Saturday night and early Sunday, the snowfall will start to diminish, beginning near the Manitoba border and extending to the rest of Northwestern Ontario by sunrise. In the east, snow is expected to persist through early Sunday but will gradually weaken by the afternoon.
The heaviest snowfall totals across Northern Ontario will be quite extensive. In Northwestern Ontario, the greatest accumulations are expected along the international border, extending east to Thunder Bay and along the Lake Superior shoreline. Here, snowfall is generally forecasted to range from 15 to 20cm, with potential local higher amounts, especially near Lake Superior, where the lake effect might cause uneven snow distribution.
Toward the Manitoba border, lesser snow is anticipated, with totals between 10 to 20cm expected for areas like Kenora, Dryden, and Red Lake.
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In contrast, Northeastern Ontario will see a more confined area with 15-20cm of snow, primarily east of Lake Superior due to lake enhancement effects. Broader regions, including Timmins, Kapuskasing, Kirkland Lake, and Sudbury, are likely to receive 10 to 15cm.
The southern areas along the Georgian Bay shoreline, such as North Bay and Manitoulin Island, will experience lower accumulations, ranging from 5 to 10cm.
As the snow exits in the north, attention shifts to a secondary system poised to brush Southern Ontario's eastern edges. This snowfall is expected to start late Saturday afternoon, beginning in the Niagara region and gradually encompassing Eastern Ontario by night.
The interaction of this storm with the northern system adds an element of unpredictability to its trajectory. A westward shift in its path could mean more widespread snowfall, potentially affecting the Golden Horseshoe and Central Ontario.
However, current projections suggest a more eastern trajectory, which would result in higher snowfall rates in the eastern part of the province, especially close to the center of the low-pressure system. Lake Ontario may also contribute to locally enhanced snowfall rates, particularly in the Western Greater Toronto Area (GTA), between Hamilton and Toronto.
This snow is expected to continue through the night and into Sunday morning, with the heaviest snow likely occurring Saturday evening and early Sunday. By noon, snowfall should start tapering off in the southwestern regions, while light snow may persist over Eastern Ontario for much of the afternoon.
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Forecasting the accumulation from this storm is challenging due to the low confidence in its exact path. A shift to the east could reduce snow totals, while a westward shift might bring more snow into the GTA.
Currently, it's anticipated that Extreme Eastern Ontario, stretching from Kingston through Brockville to Cornwall, could experience snowfall exceeding 15cm, possibly reaching up to 20cm. However, some models indicate a possible underperformance, with totals closer to 10 to 15cm.
The snowfall predictions decrease further west, with Ottawa and the Northern Lake Ontario shoreline expecting 10 to 15cm. A broad zone encompassing the rest of Eastern Ontario and parts of Central Ontario is forecasted to receive around 5cm, with slightly higher amounts of up to 10cm possible.
This includes the Golden Horseshoe around Lake Ontario and extends up along the Dundalk Highlands, where local areas might also see 5-10cm, depending largely on lake enhancement effects.
Less than 5cm is expected along the Georgian Bay shoreline and into Southwestern Ontario. The least snow, under 2cm, is forecasted for Deep Southwestern Ontario.
A separate update on the potential snowstorm for Tuesday will be released over the weekend. Currently, there's too much disagreement among models to confidently predict this forecast.
