'Snow Day' Forecast: Blizzard Conditions on Thursday Likely to Cancel Many School Buses in Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt
/
NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE
Snow squalls are forecast to develop late Wednesday and persist into Thursday, bringing substantial snowfall to areas around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.
Strong wind gusts are expected to accompany the intense snowfall, prompting Environment Canada to issue a rare blizzard warning for parts of Grey, Bruce, and Huron counties. Meanwhile, other regions are under a strongly worded snow squall warning, with predictions of snowfall accumulation potentially reaching up to 80 cm in localized areas.
Given the expected hazardous conditions, it’s highly unlikely that school buses will be able to operate safely in the affected areas on Thursday. As a result, it is anticipated that many school boards will opt to cancel school buses and might even decide to close schools entirely, particularly in regions under a blizzard warning.
The highest likelihood of a ‘snow day’ applies to the entire Bluewater District School Board (BWDSB), Avon Maitland District School Board (AMDSB) - North Huron, Simcoe County District School Board (North and West weather zones), Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka region), and Near North District School Board (NNDSB - Parry Sound area).
These areas, which are under snow squall or blizzard warnings, have a greater than 90% chance of bus cancellations.
Surrounding regions, including the remainder of Avon Maitland District School Board (southern zones), Simcoe County District School Board (Central and South weather zones), Student Transportation Services of Wellington Dufferin (STWDSTS), and Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Kawartha Lakes and Haliburton regions), have a 50–75% chance of snow day cancellations.
Although these areas are still under warnings, they are not expected to experience the most severe conditions. While bus cancellations are still likely, the confidence level isn’t as high as in the core impact zones.
The probability of cancellations drops significantly outside the snowbelt, as the squalls are expected to remain highly localized. Eastern Ontario may be the only exception outside the snowbelt which has a low chance (10–25%) of cancellations.
While icy road conditions from an overnight freeze following earlier rainfall are possible, it is unlikely to be severe enough to prompt widespread cancellations. However, the possibility cannot be entirely ruled out.
Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.
