Southern Ontario: ‘Snow/Cold Day’ Forecast for Monday, February 9, 2026

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While no precipitation is expected across Southern Ontario on Monday, there is still a slight chance of school bus cancellations tied to extreme cold in some parts of the region.

The coldest conditions are expected to be found across portions of Central and Eastern Ontario, where overnight lows combined with wind chills could make it feel near -40°C. Actual air temperatures in these areas may dip into the -25 to -30°C range by Monday morning. This places temperatures very close to the threshold that typically prompts cold-related bus cancellations.

That said, confidence is not particularly high. Some forecast guidance keeps temperatures just warm enough to stay below that cancellation threshold, while other models suggest a slightly colder outcome. With cold events like this, even a difference of a couple of degrees can make a big difference when it comes to school board decisions.

Because of this uncertainty, we have assigned a 25 percent chance of cold-related bus cancellations to Muskoka and Haliburton under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Parry Sound and East Parry Sound within the Near North District School Board, North Hastings, North Lennox and Addington, and North and Central Frontenac under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, as well as the Madawaska region within the Renfrew County District School Board. If any cold day cancellations are announced on Monday, they are most likely to occur within this group of school boards.

Outside of these areas, the probability drops off quickly. We have extended a low to very low chance into parts of rural Southwestern Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe. While temperatures here are not expected to reach cold-day thresholds, it cannot be completely ruled out if overnight lows end up a few degrees colder than forecast, particularly in more exposed rural areas.

For the remainder of Southern Ontario, school bus cancellations are not expected on Monday. Conditions elsewhere should remain cold but manageable, staying below the level that would typically lead to widespread cold-related disruptions.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations and Closures for Friday, February 6, 2026

**Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update**

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

• Green = No Cancellations

• Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)

• Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

• Avon MaitIand Public & Huron-Perth CathoIic: There are several closures/cancellations, please visit this link for more details: https://hpsts.mybusplanner.ca/Alerts

• BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: All busses are cancelled.

• Lambton Kent Public & St. CIair Catholic: Busses in all zones are cancelled.

• Renfrew County Public & Renfrew County Catholic: Busses are cancelled for Zone 4 Madawaska.

• Thames Valley Public & London CathoIic: School purpose vehicles are cancelled in Middlesex, Oxford, Elgin Counties, and Red Zone.

French Schools

• Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: Busses are cancelled in Oxford, Middlesex, Lambton, and Chatham-Kent.

• Conseil scolaire Viamonde: Busses are cancelled in Oxford, Middlesex, Lambton, and Chatham-Kent.

Blowing Snow and Near-Blizzard Conditions Could Threaten Friday Evening Commute Across Southern Ontario

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This week has mostly offered a much-needed reprieve from what felt like an endless onslaught of snow that dominated much of January. For many across Southern Ontario, it finally felt like winter eased up a little. Aside from an Alberta Clipper earlier this week, snowfall became lighter and more scattered, and we even managed to climb out of the deep freeze over the past few days, with temperatures returning closer to seasonal norms for early February.

That quieter stretch is now coming to an end as we head into the weekend. A fast-moving but potent weather system is set to cross the region on Friday, bringing a quick blast of heavy snow, strong winds, and sharply falling temperatures. While this will not be a long-duration storm, its timing and intensity could still cause significant disruption.

The main feature to watch will be a cold front sweeping across Ontario on Friday afternoon and evening. Along the leading edge of this front, a frontal squall is expected to develop. This type of setup is known for producing intense snowfall over a very short period of time, often accompanied by rapidly worsening visibility.

As this squall moves through, whiteout conditions are likely to develop with little warning. Snowfall rates could become very heavy for one to two hours in many areas, which is more than enough time for roads to become snow-covered and slippery before plows are able to respond.

Wind will be another major factor with this system. In the wake of the cold front, wind gusts are expected to ramp up quickly. Many areas could see gusts exceeding 70 km/h, with even stronger gusts possible in some locations. This combination of fresh snow and strong winds will lead to widespread blowing snow and significantly reduced visibility.

Unfortunately, the worst of these conditions is expected to line up with the afternoon and early evening commute across much of Southwestern and Central Ontario. Travel conditions could deteriorate rapidly during this window, especially on highways and open rural roads where blowing snow tends to be more severe.

Snowfall totals from this system are not expected to be extreme by winter standards. Most areas are generally looking at around 5 to 10 cm of snow, with locally higher amounts possible. Areas near Lake Huron could see totals exceed 10 cm due to minor lake enhancement adding to the frontal snow.

The bigger concern is not how much snow falls, but how quickly it falls. With most of the accumulation occurring in a narrow one to two-hour window, roads can become snow-covered very quickly. This rapid accumulation often leads to poor driving conditions even when overall totals are modest.

Hourly snowfall rates (cm) - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Snow is expected to begin spreading into Southwestern and Central Ontario during the mid-morning hours on Friday. At this point, winds should still be relatively light. Snowfall rates during the morning should generally remain below 1 cm per hour, which means conditions should stay manageable for the early part of the day.

This initial area of light snow will gradually expand eastward through the late morning and early afternoon, reaching Eastern Ontario as the day goes on. Travel impacts during this phase are expected to be limited, though roads may start to become slick in spots.

PRECIP TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

By mid to late afternoon, attention turns to the arrival of the sharp cold front. This front will have three main impacts on the region, with the first being the intense frontal squall along its leading edge.

The squall is expected to begin moving into parts of Northern Ontario and the Lake Huron region sometime between 2 and 4 PM. From there, it will push steadily southeastward through the afternoon.

The Muskoka to London corridor is likely to see the squall move through between roughly 4 and 6 PM. During this time, snowfall rates could become very heavy, and visibility may drop to near zero for brief periods.

As the squall continues southeast, it is expected to reach the Greater Toronto Area around the dinner hour. While it may weaken somewhat by this point, a burst of heavy snow and gusty winds is still possible.

By the early evening, the squall should be pushing into Eastern Ontario, reaching areas such as Kingston and Ottawa sometime around 9 to 10 PM. Even though it will be later in the day, conditions could still become hazardous for a time as it moves through.

Whiteout conditions may occur with little warning wherever the squall passes. These conditions could last for an hour or two in any given location, making travel very difficult during that brief window.

WIND GUST - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The second major concern with this system will be the strong winds developing behind the cold front. Wind gusts are expected to be strongest near Lake Huron, where some models are indicating gusts approaching 80 km/h from Goderich through Grand Bend and into London.

In this area, localized blizzard conditions are possible from the late afternoon into the evening hours. Environment Canada has mentioned that a blizzard warning may be required for parts of this region, though there remains some uncertainty regarding how long the strongest winds will last.

Even outside of the Lake Huron shoreline, many areas could see wind gusts between 50 and 70 km/h. These winds will be more than enough to cause blowing snow, especially with freshly fallen snow being easily lofted off the ground.

Blowing snow is likely to continue into the evening even after snowfall tapers off, prolonging travel impacts and keeping visibility reduced for several hours.

WIND GUST - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Another aspect being closely monitored is the potential for very strong wind gusts along higher elevations north of the Greater Toronto Area. Some models suggest a corridor of stronger winds following the Oak Ridges Moraine, extending from Durham Region through York Region and into parts of Peel Region.

In these areas, wind gusts could approach or even exceed 90 km/h. If this scenario materializes, there could be an increased risk of power outages and localized damage, especially in exposed areas.

Hourly snowfall rates (cm) - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Behind the cold front, lake effect snow is expected to develop along the Lake Huron shoreline Friday evening and continue overnight. The exact intensity of this lake effect snow remains somewhat uncertain.

A significant portion of Lake Huron is currently covered in ice, which can limit how much moisture the lake can supply. This may prevent the lake effect from becoming as intense as it otherwise could be.

However, the very strong winds will play a major role in impacts regardless of snowfall intensity. Wind gusts exceeding 70 km/h will likely lead to near blizzard conditions along the shoreline, with blowing snow continuing through the evening and into the overnight hours.

WIND CHILL - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The third and perhaps most noticeable impact of this cold front will be the sudden return to bitterly cold temperatures. This drop in temperature will be sharp and abrupt, not gradual.

By Saturday morning, widespread wind chills are expected to make it feel well into the -30s across much of Southern Ontario. Some areas could even approach wind chills near -40°C.

Actual air temperatures are expected to range from -25°C to -30°C across most regions. Deep Southwestern Ontario, including areas closer to Lake Erie, may stay a bit milder, closer to -20°C.

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

As mentioned, snowfall totals from this event are not expected to be overly impressive on their own and would be considered fairly typical for this time of year. The real story will be the wind, the rapid snowfall rates, and the extreme cold that follows.

The highest snowfall totals are expected along the Lake Huron shoreline from Kincardine down through Grand Bend. In these areas, 5 to 10 cm from the frontal squall combined with locally 10 to 15 cm from lake effect snow could result in overall totals between 10 and 20 cm.

Elsewhere across Southwestern Ontario, excluding Deep Southwestern Ontario, as well as Central and Eastern Ontario, a general 5 to 10 cm of snow is expected. Localized pockets could approach 15 cm if the squall slows down or briefly stalls over an area.

For Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Sarnia and Windsor, along with the western portions of the GTA and the Niagara region, snowfall totals are expected to be lower. Around 2 to 5 cm is likely in these areas as the frontal squall weakens and becomes less organized.

Even in areas with lower snowfall totals, conditions could still become hazardous for a time due to strong winds, blowing snow, and rapidly falling temperatures as winter reminds us it is far from finished.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Blast of Heavy Snow on Friday Afternoon May Lead to School Bus Cancellations in Parts of Southern Ontario

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/2/6/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

A messy weather setup is expected across Southern Ontario on Friday, as a burst of heavy snow moves into the region later in the day. Strong winds combined with falling snow are expected to create areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility, particularly through the afternoon and early evening hours. This has prompted Environment Canada to issue a widespread blowing snow advisory across much of Southwestern Ontario.

When it comes to impacts on school transportation, however, the situation is less straightforward. The worst conditions are expected to develop after the school day is already underway, with the most hazardous travel lining up closer to the afternoon commute rather than the morning bus run.

There may be some light snow around during the morning hours, but at this point, it does not appear to be enough on its own to meet the threshold that typically leads to school bus cancellations. Because of this timing, school boards would need to be proactive and factor in rapidly deteriorating conditions later in the day, rather than what is occurring at decision time in the early morning.

Given the blowing snow advisory from Environment Canada and the potential for travel conditions to worsen quickly while buses are on the roads in the afternoon, we have gone with a 50 percent chance for school bus cancellations for regions covered by the Bluewater District School Board, the Avon Maitland District School Board, and Middlesex County under the Thames Valley District School Board. This is very much a borderline scenario and could genuinely go either way. If this system were arriving a few hours earlier, confidence in cancellations would be much higher.

A second tier of regions carries a slight chance, around 25 percent, for a snow day on Friday. This includes areas covered by the Greater Essex County District School Board, the Lambton Kent District School Board, Elgin and Oxford counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board, the Near North District School Board, and the Rainbow District School Board. These areas are more rural in nature and are likely to see snow begin during or just ahead of the afternoon bus run. While most of these regions are expected to operate normally, a few localized decisions to cancel buses cannot be ruled out.

Outside of these zones, probabilities drop off further. We have assigned a widespread low to very low chance across rural school boards around the Golden Horseshoe and extending into parts of Central and Eastern Ontario. In these areas, the bulk of the snow is expected to arrive closer to the dinner hour, which greatly reduces the likelihood of school boards cancelling buses earlier in the day.

That said, if Environment Canada expands blowing snow advisories farther east or begins highlighting particularly poor travel conditions during the afternoon commute, some of the more weather-sensitive school boards could opt to cancel buses as a precaution.

For the more urban school boards, including those across the Greater Toronto Area and the Ottawa region, we are not expecting any school bus cancellations on Friday. Conditions in these areas are not forecast to come anywhere near the threshold that typically prompts cancellations, and travel should remain manageable through the school day.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Thursday, February 5, 2026

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No impactful winter weather is expected across Southern Ontario throughout the day on Thursday.

As a result, all regions have a less than 5 percent chance of school bus cancellations.

It’s shaping up to be a quiet and routine school day, so… do your homework!

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Wednesday, February 4, 2026

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No impactful winter weather is expected across Southern Ontario throughout the day on Wednesday.

As a result, all regions have a less than 5 percent chance of school bus cancellations.

It’s shaping up to be a quiet and routine school day, so… do your homework!

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Tuesday, February 3, 2026

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Periods of light snow are expected tonight into Tuesday across Southern Ontario.

Snowfall amounts are expected to remain fairly minor, with most areas picking up less than 5 cm by the time the snow tapers off late Tuesday. Because of this, conditions are not expected to deteriorate enough to reach the threshold that typically leads to school bus cancellations.

That said, there is a very small window for isolated impacts in a few regions near the lakes. We have assigned a very low chance to areas covered by the Bluewater District School Board, the Avon Maitland District School Board and the Near North District School Board. In these regions, snow is expected to be heaviest close to the time when school boards are making their morning decisions.

In addition, slightly stronger winds near the Lake Huron and Georgian Bay shorelines could lead to some localized blowing snow, briefly reducing visibility on exposed rural routes. Even so, snowfall rates and overall accumulation should remain limited, making cancellations unlikely.

Because of these marginal factors, we have gone with a 5 percent chance for these regions. This is very much a “don’t count on it” scenario, and the expectation remains that buses will run as normal.

Everywhere else across Southern Ontario is not expected to see any chance of a snow day on Tuesday. Snowfall should be light, roads should remain manageable, and no significant travel disruptions are anticipated.

So despite a bit of light snow in the forecast, Tuesday is shaping up to be a routine school day across the province. In other words, homework is still on the schedule!

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Monday, February 2, 2026

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No major winter weather is expected throughout Monday that could disrupt school buses across Southern Ontario.

While there are cold temperatures expected in some areas, it’s unlikely to reach the threshold for cancellations.

All areas should do their homework tonight!

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow/Cold Day’ Forecast: Wind Chills Near -40°C Could Cancel Some School Buses Across Southern Ontario on Friday

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While snow squall activity around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay has underperformed so far on Thursday, allowing for fewer school bus cancellations than initially expected, the snow squall threat is not over just yet. Additional lake effect activity is expected to persist overnight and into Friday morning, keeping the door open for further disruptions.

On top of that, a surge of Arctic air will settle across Southern Ontario overnight. Temperatures in some areas are expected to fall toward -30°C, with wind chills making it feel closer to -40°C by Friday morning. That combination of lingering snow squalls and extreme cold could be enough to prompt at least some school boards to keep buses off the roads on Friday.

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It’s also worth noting that many school boards have a PA Day scheduled for Friday. If that applies to your region, consider it a guaranteed cold day and enjoy sleeping through the worst of the wind chills. However, for the purpose of this forecast, we are treating Friday as a normal school day across all boards, as PA Day schedules vary and not every board follows the same calendar.

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For school boards that are operating, our strongest confidence for bus cancellations is focused along the Lake Huron snowbelt. This includes Kincardine and Meaford within the Bluewater District School Board, along with northern Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board.

These areas are most likely to see renewed snow squall activity overnight if the bands are able to organize. However, given the inconsistent model performance with this lake effect setup, confidence is not high enough to place these regions in the highest category. As a result, we have kept them below the 90 percent threshold.

For the remainder of the Bluewater District School Board, excluding the Bruce Peninsula, as well as the rest of the Avon Maitland District School Board and the Simcoe West weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board, we have assigned a 50 percent chance. In these areas, the risk comes from a combination of scattered snow squall impacts and the potential for extreme cold near cancellation thresholds.

A broad swath of Central and Eastern Ontario has also been placed in the 50 percent category due primarily to the cold. Typically, air temperatures near minus 30 degrees or wind chills approaching minus 40 are required before most school boards consider cancelling buses due to cold alone.

Current forecasts suggest many areas may come within just a few degrees of those thresholds, but could fall just short. Because of that uncertainty and the tendency for models to occasionally underestimate cold air outbreaks, we’ve gone with a 50 percent chance that could swing either way.

This 50 percent zone includes all regions covered by the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Parry Sound and East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board, Peterborough and Northumberland counties under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, the northern sections of Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, and the Madawaska region under the Renfrew County District School Board. This also extends into higher elevation areas of Southwestern Ontario, including Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board.

For a slight chance of bus cancellations, we have included the remainder of the Renfrew County District School Board, the Upper Canada District School Board, the southern sections of Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, Clarington under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, northern Durham Region, the remaining Simcoe County District School Board weather zones, Guelph under the Upper Grand District School Board, the Waterloo Region District School Board, and Oxford and Middlesex counties under the Thames Valley District School Board.

These areas are either more urban in nature or are expected to see slightly warmer temperatures, which should keep them below cold day thresholds. However, if temperatures end up just a few degrees colder than forecast, a handful of surprise cancellations would not be out of the question.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, including the more urban school boards across the Golden Horseshoe and into Deep Southwestern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations remains low. While it will be cold, temperatures and wind chills are not expected to reach the levels typically required for widespread cold-related cancellations in these areas.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations and Closures for Thursday, January 29, 2026

**Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update**

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

• Green = No Cancellations

• Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)

• Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

• Avon MaitIand Public & Huron-Perth CathoIic: There are multiple cancellations, please visit this link for more details: https://hpsts.mybusplanner.ca/Alerts

French Schools

• Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: Busses are cancelled in Middlesex (Huron)

• Conseil scolaire Viamonde: Busses are cancelled in Middlesex (Huron)

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Some Students in Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt Could See Another Day of Bus Cancellations on Thursday

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/29/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

The story of the past few weeks across Southern Ontario has been relentless snow squall activity, leaving some communities with only a handful of actual school days during that stretch. Unfortunately for those hoping for a break, that pattern shows no real signs of ending just yet. Additional snow squall activity is expected to linger into Thursday, raising the likelihood of yet another snow day for parts of the region.

While this round of snow squalls is not expected to be as widespread as what we have seen over the last few days, regions east of Lake Huron will continue to deal with difficult travel conditions. Persistent bursts of snow, blowing snow, and reduced visibility are expected to remain an issue, particularly in areas that have already been repeatedly impacted and are still struggling to fully dig out.

Our highest confidence for school bus cancellations on Thursday is centred on Bruce County within the Bluewater District School Board. This includes Kincardine, Southampton and the Bruce Peninsula. These areas sit squarely within the core snowbelt and are expected to continue seeing treacherous conditions into Thursday. With many rural routes still snow-covered and additional squalls possible, we have given this region a 90 percent chance of a snow day.

Surrounding areas also carry a strong likelihood of cancellations, though confidence is slightly lower than in the core snowbelt. North Huron County, under the Avon Maitland District School Board, along with Owen Sound and Meaford within the Bluewater District School Board, have been assigned a 75 percent chance. Conditions in these areas are likely to be poor enough to justify cancellations, but there is more uncertainty given that the most persistent squall activity may remain closer to the Lake Huron shoreline north of Kincardine.

In our toss-up category, where conditions could genuinely go either way, we have included southern Huron County and northern Perth County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Hanover within the Bluewater District School Board, and the Simcoe West weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board. These regions have been given a 50 percent chance, as outcomes will depend heavily on how far inland and how far south the snow squall bands are able to stretch during the morning and early afternoon.

Farther away from the core snowbelt, probabilities drop off further. We have assigned a 25 percent chance to southern Perth County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board, and the Simcoe Central and Simcoe North weather zones. Snow squalls may occasionally brush these areas through Thursday, with Simcoe County being the most likely to see brief impacts. However, given the Simcoe County District School Board’s track record of maintaining a high threshold for cancellations and often running buses despite active alerts, we are leaning toward buses operating in most of these areas.

We have also assigned a 25 percent chance to Prince Edward County under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. This region has seen substantial snowfall over the past several days from repeated snow squall activity. While the squalls themselves are expected to taper off by Thursday morning, backroads may still be in rough shape, which keeps the door open for potential cancellations.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, the chance of a snow day on Thursday remains low. Most regions outside of the Lake Huron snowbelt are not expected to see significant impacts from this round of squalls, and conditions should be manageable enough for school buses to operate as normal.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations and Closures for Wednesday, January 28, 2026

**Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update**

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

• Green = No Cancellations

• Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)

• Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

• BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: All busses are cancelled EXCEPT for Zone 7 (Teeswater, Lucknow, Ripley)

• Near North Public & Nipissing-Parry Sound CathoIic: All School busses in West Parry Sound ( Britt/Nobel - Mcdougall/Whitestone/Ahmic Harbour - Town of Parry Sound - Mactier/Humphrey/Rosseau) are cancelled

• Simcoe County Public & Simcoe Catholic: Busses are cancelled in the North Zone.

• Tri-Board: Transportation is cancelled in the Prince Edward County weather zone.

French Schools

• Conseil catholique MonAvenir: Busses are cancelled for some schools in Simcoe

• Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: Busses are cancelled in Simcoe North and Bruce-Grey

• Conseil scolaire Viamonde: Busses are cancelled in Simcoe North and Bruce-Grey

• Le Conseil scolaire public du Nord-Est de l’Ontario (CSPNE) & Conseil scolaire catholique Franco-Nord: All School busses in West Parry Sound ( Britt/Nobel - Mcdougall/Whitestone/Ahmic Harbour - Town of Parry Sound - Mactier/Humphrey/Rosseau) are cancelled

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Another Likely Day of School Bus Cancellations in Parts of Southern Ontario on Wednesday

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/28/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Widespread snow squall activity has developed off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay through the day on Tuesday and shows no signs of letting up as we head into the overnight hours and into Wednesday. These squalls are producing bursts of heavy snow, significantly reduced visibility and areas of blowing snow, creating very hazardous travel conditions in the snowbelt.

Localized snowfall totals of up to 20 to 30 cm are possible in the most persistent bands by Wednesday. With snow continuing to fall and winds remaining gusty, it is almost certain that school buses will be unable to operate safely in the hardest hit regions on Wednesday.

Our highest confidence for a snow day remains focused on areas east of Lake Huron, where the most intense and long-lasting squalls are expected. This includes all regions covered by the Bluewater District School Board, along with Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board. These areas sit directly within the core of the snowbelt and feature a high number of rural routes that are especially vulnerable to drifting and whiteout conditions. As a result, we have assigned these regions a 90 percent chance of school bus cancellations on Wednesday.

A strong likelihood tier follows closely behind, with a 75 percent chance of cancellations for Perth County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Dufferin County within the Upper Grand District School Board, and the Simcoe West and Simcoe North weather zones under the Simcoe County District School Board. While these areas are expected to see snow squall impacts, they sit slightly farther from the most intense activity. In the case of Simcoe County, the school board has shown a higher threshold for cancellations this season and has run buses in similar conditions before, which keeps confidence slightly lower despite the expectation of poor travel conditions.

In the toss-up category, where outcomes could genuinely go either way, we have included the Simcoe Central weather zone, Wellington County under the Upper Grand District School Board, and South Muskoka within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board. These regions are currently under snow squall warnings, but confidence is lower on how severe conditions will be during the morning bus run. Depending on how quickly squalls weaken or shift overnight, some of these areas may attempt to run buses despite the active alerts.

We have also placed Prince Edward County under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services in the 50 percent category. This region has been impacted by snow squalls earlier today, and while snowfall has tapered off, road conditions may remain questionable into Wednesday morning, especially on secondary and rural routes.

Outside of the core snowbelt, probabilities drop off more quickly. A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to Middlesex and Oxford counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, the Simcoe South weather zone, Georgina within the York Region District School Board, North Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, the Parry Sound region under the Near North District School Board, and Belleville along with South Lennox and Addington under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. Most of these areas are not expected to see significant snowfall, but localized blowing snow or lingering poor road conditions could still allow for a few surprise cancellations.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, including the Golden Horseshoe, Deep Southwestern Ontario and much of Eastern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Wednesday remains low. These regions are expected to see minimal impacts from the lake effect activity, with conditions remaining manageable enough for buses to operate as normal.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations and Closures for Tuesday, January 27, 2026

**Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update**

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

• Green = No Cancellations

• Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)

• Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

• Avon MaitIand Public & Huron-Perth CathoIic: There are several closures/cancellations, please visit this link for more details: https://hpsts.mybusplanner.ca/Alerts

• BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: All busses are cancelled.

• Grand Erie Public & Brant HaIdimand Norfolk Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.

• Dufferin-PeeI Catholic: Buses to St. Andrew, St. Peter, St. Benedict, and Robert F. Hall C.S.S. are cancelled

• Greater Essex Public & Windsor Essex CathoIic: All Board Provided Transportation is Cancelled for the County of Essex

• Near North Public & Nipissing-Parry Sound CathoIic: School Bussing is cancelled in the Weather Zones of West Parry Sound and East Parry Sound South

• Thames Valley Public & London CathoIic: Busses are cancelled in Middlesex, Oxford, and Elgin Counties and Red Zone.

• Tri-Board: Transportation is cancelled in the Prince Edward County weather zone

• Upper Grand Public & Wellington CathoIic: All school taxis and buses in Division 3 (North Wellington) and Division 4 (Dufferin County) will not be operating

French Schools

• Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: Busses are cancelled in Essex, Oxford, Middlesex, and Bruce-Grey

• Conseil scolaire Viamonde: Busses are cancelled in Oxford, Middlesex, and Bruce-Grey

• Le Conseil scolaire public du Nord-Est de l’Ontario (CSPNE) & Conseil scolaire catholique Franco-Nord: School Bussing is cancelled in the Weather Zones of West Parry Sound and East Parry Sound South

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Chance of School Bus Cancellations Return to Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt on Tuesday With Snow Squall Risk

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/27/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

After a disruptive snowstorm delivered Toronto’s largest single-day snowfall on record on Sunday, students across much of the Golden Horseshoe and Eastern Ontario saw widespread school bus cancellations and even school closures on Monday. But for communities closer to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, it marked a return to normal, with students finally heading back to school after being off for much of the previous week in some areas.

Now that the main storm system has moved out of the region, attention turns back to lake effect snow. Snow squall activity is expected to redevelop across Southern Ontario’s snowbelt, bringing with it the renewed potential for school bus cancellations on Tuesday.

Localized snow squalls are forecast to develop tonight across the Bruce Peninsula and then extend northeast of Georgian Bay into the Parry Sound region through Tuesday morning. As the day progresses, these squalls are expected to gradually shift south of the region, but not before producing periods of heavy snow and poor visibility during the morning hours.

With snow squall warnings in place from Environment Canada, highlighting the risk of significant snowfall and reduced visibility, there is a strong chance that some of the hardest hit regions will experience another snow day on Tuesday.

Our highest confidence is in the Parry Sound region under the Near North District School Board. This area is expected to see the most intense and persistent snow squall activity through the morning, making bus travel unsafe. As a result, we have assigned Parry Sound a 90 percent chance of school bus cancellations.

A strong likelihood follows closely behind, with a 75 percent chance assigned to the Bruce Peninsula within the Bluewater District School Board and East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board. While the Bruce Peninsula is expected to see treacherous conditions, Bluewater has already experienced a high number of cancellations this season. Because of that, there remains a slight chance they may attempt to run buses if conditions are marginal early in the morning, keeping this region just below the highest tier.

Along the Lake Huron shoreline, including the remainder of Bruce County and extending into North Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, we have assigned a 50 percent chance. Snowfall totals here are not expected to be extreme, but strong wind gusts of 50 to 60 km/h could lead to areas of blowing snow and rapidly changing visibility. These conditions could go either way depending on how exposed routes are early Tuesday morning.

Farther inland, confidence drops off. Perth County, under the Avon Maitland District School Board, and all of Grey County within the Bluewater District School Board have been given a 25 percent chance. Winds are expected to weaken farther from the lakes, and snowfall intensity should be lower, making cancellations less likely but not impossible.

East of Georgian Bay, North Muskoka, under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, has been placed in the 50 percent category, as it currently sits under a snow squall warning. That said, TLDSB has a history of holding off on cancellations unless conditions are actively poor during the morning bus run, even when warnings are in effect. Because of that, confidence remains split. South Muskoka under TLDSB and North Bay within the Near North District School Board have been assigned a lower 25 percent chance.

Farther east, lake effect activity may also impact Northumberland County into the Belleville and Picton area. Environment Canada has issued a snow squall watch for this region from Tuesday morning into the evening. Because of that, we have given Belleville and Prince Edward County under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services a 50 percent chance of bus cancellations.

A 25 percent chance has also been assigned to Northumberland County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, as well as Central Hastings, Central Lennox and Addington, and South Frontenac under Tri-Board. While it remains questionable whether conditions will be severe enough to prompt cancellations in these areas, these school boards tend to be more proactive when Environment Canada alerts are in place, which keeps the door open for possible decisions.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, the chance of a snow day on Tuesday is low to very low. Some regions that were hit hard by Sunday’s historic snowfall could still see lingering cleanup issues, but widespread cancellations for that reason appear unlikely.

In fact, the Toronto District School Board has already confirmed that schools will be open on Tuesday, despite Toronto being the hardest hit area from Sunday’s storm. With that in mind, it becomes increasingly questionable that other regions would cancel solely due to cleanup concerns if Toronto is able to reopen.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Toronto Area Schools Confirmed Closed on Monday as Intense Snowstorm Dumps Over 60cm of Snow

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Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

• Green = No Cancellations

• Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)

• Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

• Dufferin-PeeI Catholic: All schools are closed.

• Durham Public & Durham Catholic: All schools are closed.

• Grand Erie Public & Brant HaIdimand Norfolk Catholic: All schools are closed.

• Greater Essex Public & Windsor Essex CathoIic: All Board Provided Transportation is Cancelled

• HaIton Public & Halton Catholic: All schools are closed.

• HamiIton Wentworth Public & Catholic: All schools are closed.

• Kawartha Pine Ridge Public & Peterborough Victoria Northumberland Clarington Catholic: All schools are closed.

• Lambton Kent Public & St. CIair Catholic: Busses in Zones 7 & 8 are cancelled.

• Niagara Public & Niagara Catholic: All schools are closed.

• PeeI Public: All schools are closed.

• Renfrew County Public & Renfrew County Catholic: All transportation service is Cancelled.

• Thames Valley Public & London CathoIic: School purpose vehicles are cancelled in Oxford County.

• Toronto Public & Toronto Catholic: All schools are closed.

• Tri-Board: All school bus and taxi transportation is cancelled.

  All ALCDSB schools are closed. Some LDSB schools are closed. HPEDSB schools in Belleville, Quinte West, and PEC are closed.

• Trillium Lakelands: All school vehicles to schools in Zone 4 and Zone 5 have been cancelled.

• Upper Canada Public & Eastern Ontario CathoIic: All transportation is cancelled.

• Upper Grand Public & Wellington CathoIic: All schools are closed.

• WaterIoo Public & WaterIoo Catholic: All schools are closed.

• York Public & York Catholic: All schools are closed.

French Schools

• Conseil des écoles publiques de l’Est de l’Ontario (CEPEO): All busses are cancelled EXCEPT in the City of Ottawa.

• Conseil catholique MonAvenir: Schools are closed in Toronto, Durham, Peel, Halton, Peterborough, York, Niagara, Hamilton, Guelph, Brant, Norfolk, and Waterloo.

• Conseil scolaire de district catholique de l'Est Ontarien (CSDCEO): All busses are cancelled.

• Conseil des écoles catholiques de langue française du Centre-Est: All busses are cancelled EXCEPT in the City of Ottawa.

• Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: Busses are cancelled in York, Toronto, Peel, Oxford, Niagara, Kitchener/Waterloo, Hamilton, Halton, Durham, and Essex. Some schools are also closed.

• Conseil scolaire Viamonde: Schools are closed in York, Durham, Toronto, Peel, Halton, Hamilton, Niagara, Guelph, Kitchener/Waterloo, and Orangeville. Busses are cancelled Oxford.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Many School Bus Cancellations & School Closures Likely on Monday as Southern Ontario Digs Out From Snowstorm

MAP UPDATED WITH ANNOUNCED CLOSURES AS OF 10:15 PM

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/26/bus-cancellations

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Original Forecast:

A massive snowstorm is currently bearing down on Southern Ontario, with a particular focus on the Greater Toronto Area. Snowfall totals in some parts of the region are expected to approach or even exceed 50 cm by the time the storm winds down late Sunday.

While the heaviest snow is expected to taper off several hours before the Monday morning commute, cleanup efforts will only just be getting underway. With such an extreme amount of snow on the ground, school bus cancellations and even school closures are close to a certainty across large portions of the region.

The greatest concern remains across the Golden Horseshoe, where strong lake enhancement is expected to significantly boost snowfall totals, as well as Eastern Ontario, where snow is forecast to linger into Monday morning.

In these regions, road conditions are expected to be extremely poor, with snow-covered and impassable routes likely during the morning hours. Because of this, we have assigned a 90 percent chance of a snow day on Monday.

This highest confidence zone includes the Hamilton-Wentworth District School Board, the Halton District School Board, the Peel District School Board, the Toronto District School Board, the southern portion of the Durham District School Board, Clarington and Northumberland counties under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, all areas covered by Tri-Board Student Transportation Services with the exception of North Hastings, and the Upper Canada District School Board.

Given the scale of this storm and the sheer volume of snow expected, it is difficult to see how buses could operate safely in these areas as crews work to dig out from the heaviest snowfall totals.

If there are any surprises within this highest confidence zone, they would most likely come from one or two of the more urban school boards within the Greater Toronto Area. In particular, parts of Durham Region or Hamilton could end up on the lower end of snowfall totals if lake enhancement underperforms locally. Even in that scenario, however, any decision to run buses would fall within the small remaining uncertainty already accounted for.

In the next tier, the probability of a snow day remains high, but confidence is slightly lower as outcomes will depend more heavily on how much snow falls outside of the core lake-enhanced zones. We have assigned a 75 percent chance to the Niagara District School Board, the Grand Erie District School Board, Oxford County under the Thames Valley District School Board, the Waterloo Region District School Board, the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe South weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board, South Kawartha Lakes under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, North Hastings under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, the Madawaska region and Renfrew County under the Renfrew County District School Board, and the Ottawa region.

Ottawa in particular is expected to see significant snowfall, but given the urban nature of the school board and its typically higher threshold for cancellations, there remains a small chance buses could still run if conditions improve faster than expected.

In the toss-up category, where outcomes could genuinely go either way, we have assigned a 50 percent chance to the Greater Essex County District School Board, Chatham-Kent and Lambton County under the Lambton Kent District School Board, Middlesex and Elgin counties along with the City of London under the Thames Valley District School Board, the Avon Maitland District School Board, and the southern portions of Grey and Bruce counties under the Bluewater District School Board. In these areas, snowfall is expected to taper off earlier in the evening, giving road crews more time to clear routes before Monday morning. Whether that cleanup can keep pace with the snowfall will be the deciding factor.

East of Lake Huron, overall snowfall totals are expected to be lower. However, given the amount of snow that has already fallen in recent days, it would not take much additional accumulation to push parts of Huron, Perth and Grey-Bruce into another snow day scenario.

Farther north into Central Ontario, we have also assigned a 50 percent chance to the Simcoe Central and Simcoe West weather zones under the Simcoe County District School Board, North Kawartha Lakes and Haliburton within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and Pembroke under the Renfrew County District School Board. Snowfall totals here are expected to be lower overall, but the snow may not fully wrap up until overnight, leaving limited time for cleanup before the morning decision is made.

A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to Sarnia under the Lambton Kent District School Board, northern Grey and Bruce counties within the Bluewater District School Board, the Simcoe North weather zone, and Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board. These regions are expected to see more modest impacts, generally in the range of 5 to 10 cm of additional snowfall. That amount alone would not normally reach cancellation thresholds, but given the broader regional impacts of this storm, a few surprise decisions cannot be completely ruled out.

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Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

25-40cm of Snow Possible Around Toronto on Sunday as Widespread Snowstorm Threatens Travel Across Southern Ontario

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An expansive and high-impact winter storm is currently bearing down on a large portion of the United States this weekend, bringing widespread heavy snowfall and areas of crippling freezing rain to parts of the Southeast and the Northeastern US. This is a powerful and dynamic system that is already causing significant concern south of the border, with dangerous travel conditions, power outage risks and major disruptions expected in many states.

Southern Ontario will not be spared entirely from this storm. While we will avoid the worst of the freezing rain and blizzard conditions seen farther south, we are firmly in line to be clipped by the northwestern edge of this system on Sunday. That will be enough to deliver a widespread and impactful snowstorm across much of the region.

The axis of heaviest snowfall is expected to stretch from near the Lake Erie shoreline, through the Golden Horseshoe, and eastward into Eastern Ontario. Travel impacts are likely to be significant, especially as the most intense snowfall rates arrive during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday, a time when roads are typically busiest. Although thankfully on the weekend, which should help keep traffic volumes lower compared to a workday.

For many areas, general snowfall totals are expected to range between 15 and 25cm. This includes a broad zone covering Windsor, London, Kitchener, Kingston, Peterborough and Ottawa. However, snowfall amounts will not be uniform, and some regions will see considerably higher totals due to lake enhancement and mesoscale banding features.

The greatest concern continues to focus on the Golden Horseshoe and the Lake Ontario shoreline, where lake enhancement is expected to play a major role. In these areas, snowfall totals are likely to exceed 25cm, with some locations pushing well beyond that threshold by the time the snow tapers off late Sunday night.

There is growing confidence in the development of a persistent and narrow band of lake effect snow becoming embedded within the broader system snowfall. This feature is expected to impact parts of the Greater Toronto Area and the northwestern and western shoreline of Lake Ontario. When lake effect bands become embedded within a large-scale storm like this, snowfall rates can intensify dramatically over a very small area.

This creates an unusual and high-risk setup where the most impressive snowfall totals of the entire event may end up falling over the most densely populated portion of Southern Ontario. In some neighbourhoods, it cannot be ruled out that total snowfall may approach or even exceed 40cm.

If that scenario materializes, it would place this event among the more significant snowfall events Toronto has seen in recent memory. At the same time, it is important to stress that totals will vary sharply over short distances depending on where this narrow band ultimately sets up.

Snow falling at this intensity, especially over a relatively short 12 to 16-hour window, is likely to cause major issues across the urban core of the Greater Toronto Area. Rapid accumulation during the afternoon and evening could overwhelm road crews, making it difficult to keep up with clearing operations.

It is very possible that some major routes could see closures if conditions deteriorate quickly, including portions of the DVP, the Gardiner Expressway and sections of the 400 series highways.

Although the snow is expected to gradually wind down overnight into Monday morning, impacts will linger well beyond the end of the snowfall. The Monday morning commute is likely to be heavily affected, with many roads still uncleared or partially cleared. This increases the likelihood of school bus cancellations and even potential school closures across the hardest hit regions.

The timeline for this storm begins during the overnight hours into early Sunday morning. Initial bands of light to moderate snow are expected to move into Deep Southwestern Ontario first.

Areas like Windsor and Chatham should see snow begin around 2 to 4 AM, with coverage and intensity increasing steadily through the morning hours.

PRECIP TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As the morning progresses, the snow shield will expand northeastward, reaching London, Hamilton, Kitchener and the Niagara region by late morning. Snow may start off relatively light in these areas, but conditions will deteriorate as snowfall rates increase heading into the afternoon.

At the same time, a notable lake-driven feature is expected to develop over Lake Ontario. This feature may look like a “snow snake,” a narrow but intense band of lake effect snow that forms when cold Arctic air interacts with an unusual southeasterly wind flow. This is not a common setup, as southeasterly flows are typically associated with warmer air rather than when cold air is pushed in from the north or west.

This band is expected to first impact the northwestern shoreline of Lake Ontario, including portions of the Highway 401 corridor between Cobourg and Oshawa. Heavy snowfall rates are possible within this band even before the broader system snow arrives. In a short period of time, this could lay down 10 to 20cm of snow before noon in some areas.

PRECIP TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

By early afternoon, snowfall will ramp up significantly across much of Southern Ontario. More widespread, steady and heavy snow will overspread the Lake Erie shoreline and the Golden Horseshoe. The outer edge of the precipitation shield should reach areas from Barrie through Peterborough and into Kingston between roughly 11 AM and 1 PM.

One of the most critical elements of this forecast is how the system snow interacts with the lake effect band. As the main storm moves in, it is expected to absorb this lake effect band, but the band does not disappear. Instead, it continues as an embedded zone of enhanced snowfall, focused primarily on the eastern GTA, including Oshawa, Ajax and Whitby during the early afternoon. These areas will benefit from an added moisture source, resulting in higher snowfall rates than surrounding regions.

Hourly snowfall rates (cm) - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Snow will continue spreading northeast through the afternoon, eventually reaching Central Ontario and the Ottawa Valley by the mid to late afternoon. Similar to elsewhere, snow may begin on the lighter side but is expected to intensify into the evening hours for Eastern Ontario.

High-resolution model guidance continues to highlight an area of particularly intense snowfall rates across the Golden Horseshoe, driven by lake enhancement from Lake Ontario. Snowfall rates of 2 to 3cm per hour appear likely, with localized pockets potentially exceeding that where the embedded band becomes stationary.

The most intense part of this band may slowly drift westward into the Toronto area and linger for several hours during the late afternoon and early evening.

This is the window when snowfall could accumulate extremely quickly, potentially reaching 5cm per hour or more at times. Because this band will be very narrow, snowfall totals will vary dramatically from one neighborhood to the next. It is entirely possible for one part of the GTA to receive double the snowfall of another area only a few kilometres away.

Wind will also play a role, with gusts occasionally reaching 40 to 60 km/h. This will lead to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility. While widespread blizzard conditions are not currently expected, localized blizzard-like conditions with near zero visibility cannot be ruled out under the heaviest snowfall bands.

Hourly snowfall rates (cm) - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As the storm system pushes east into New England and Atlantic Canada, snowfall will begin to taper off across Southwestern Ontario during the evening hours. However, Eastern Ontario will just be reaching its peak snowfall during this time, with steady snow continuing through the evening from Kingston to Ottawa.

Across the Golden Horseshoe, conditions may actually worsen heading into Sunday evening as winds shift from easterly to northeasterly. This wind shift is expected to further intensify the lake effect band, allowing it to slide westward from Toronto into Mississauga, Oakville and eventually Burlington through the evening. Travel between Toronto and Hamilton during this period could be extremely difficult, and non-essential travel should be avoided if possible.

Hourly snowfall rates (cm) - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As Sunday night turns into early Monday morning, the bulk of the snowfall will become focused over Eastern Ontario as it winds down across most other parts of Southern Ontario.

The main exception will be the persistent lake effect band off Lake Ontario, which will now be free from the larger system. This band is expected to drift southward into Hamilton and potentially the northern Niagara region, including areas like Grimsby and St. Catharines, and could linger into the mid-morning hours on Monday.

For Eastern Ontario, snowfall should come to an end by around sunrise on Monday. However, the impacts will be far from over, as the amount of snow on the ground will almost certainly bring the Monday morning commute to a crawl.

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When all is said and done, snowfall totals by Monday morning will be highly variable, especially in areas affected by lake enhancement. A widespread zone along the Lake Ontario shoreline through the Golden Horseshoe is expected to see 25 to 40cm of snow.

This includes Picton, Brighton, Cobourg, Oshawa, Pickering, Toronto, Vaughan, Brampton, Mississauga, Oakville, Burlington, Hamilton, St. Catharines and Niagara Falls. Within this zone, the highest totals near 35 to 40cm will be very localized where the most intense lake enhancement persists, while many areas will fall closer to the 25 to 30cm range.

A smaller and more targeted corridor, including Oshawa, Pickering, Toronto, Vaughan, Mississauga and Oakville, has the potential to exceed 40cm if the lake effect band becomes particularly intense or remains stationary for several hours. This will lead to dramatic differences in snowfall even between nearby neighbourhoods.

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A broader area stretching from Windsor through London, Peterborough and into the Ottawa Valley can expect snowfall in the 15 to 25cm range. Some localized areas, particularly along the St. Lawrence River in Eastern Ontario, could see amounts closer to 30cm.

Snowfall totals will drop off farther northwest across Southern Ontario. Areas such as Sarnia, Goderich, Collingwood, Barrie, Orillia, Bancroft and Renfrew are currently forecast to receive 10 to 15cm. This zone remains highly sensitive to the exact northern edge of the precipitation shield, meaning totals could end up lower if the storm trends south, or higher if snowfall becomes more widespread than expected.

Finally, less than 10cm of snow is expected across Grey Bruce, Muskoka and Algonquin Park. For these regions, this will be a welcome break after enduring near continuous snow squall activity over the past week.

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We know the real question on everyone’s mind is not how much snow is coming, but how many bags of storm chips are required to survive it. We’ve got you covered with our very non-scientific ‘storm chips’ forecast!

The heaviest snow is expected to focus along the western shoreline of Lake Ontario and extend into parts of the Greater Toronto Area, including Oshawa, Vaughan, Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, Oakville and Burlington.

With widespread totals expected in the 20-40cm range, this is the kind of snowfall that doesn’t disappear overnight. Dense urban areas tend to grind to a halt during storms like this, and snow removal can take several days before things feel remotely normal again.

For that reason, we’ve officially dusted off the pink crayons. If you’re in this zone, we recommend a strong 4-5 bags of storm chips and about 15-20 cups of your favourite storm beverages to get you through the digging out phase.

Elsewhere along the Lake Ontario shoreline, from Kingston through Peterborough and around the Golden Horseshoe into Kitchener, Hamilton and the Niagara Region, impacts should still be solid. This zone is looking at a respectable 3-4 bags of storm chips and roughly 10-15 cups of storm drinks to ride out the storm in comfort.

Across the rest of Eastern Ontario into Deep Southwestern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley, Barrie, and stretching down toward Windsor and London, snowfall totals in the 10-20cm range are expected.

While not extreme, this amount of snow will still make travel messy on Sunday and likely keep you home for the day. A sensible 2-3 bags of storm chips and 5-10 cups of storm drinks should do the trick here.

Further north into Central Ontario and Grey-Bruce, snowfall amounts look lighter, generally under 10cm. Considering what these areas have already endured from relentless snow squalls over the past week, this is almost a break. Still, it never hurts to be prepared, so we suggest 1-2 bags of storm chips and 2-5 storm drinks, just in case.

Another Major Snowstorm Targets the GTA and Parts of Southern Ontario on Sunday With Up to 20-40cm of Snow

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It has been just over a week since a high-impact snowstorm swept across Southern Ontario last Thursday, bringing widespread disruption and heavy snowfall to many communities. The hardest hit areas were centred on the Greater Toronto Area, where some neighbourhoods picked up more than 30 cm of snow in a relatively short period of time. That storm caused major travel issues, school disruptions, and a lengthy cleanup that is still fresh in many people’s minds.

That’s why the forecast for this upcoming weekend may sound eerily familiar. Another snowstorm is increasingly likely to impact many of the same areas that were hit last week. While this system will not be identical, there is once again the potential for significant snowfall, especially across the Golden Horseshoe. Some parts of the region could be digging out from over 20 cm of snow by Monday morning, with localized higher amounts still very much on the table.

A large and powerful winter storm that is expected to have a widespread impact across much of the Central and Eastern United States will begin pushing northward toward Southern Ontario on Sunday. This is a major system that will be producing destructive ice storm conditions in some areas and blizzard conditions in others south of the border. Thankfully, we will not see the worst of this storm locally.

Instead, Southern Ontario is expected to be brushed by the northeastern fringe of this expansive system. While that may sound like a glancing blow, it is more than enough to cause problems here. When combined with lake enhancement off Lake Ontario, this setup has the potential to produce a disruptive and high-impact snowstorm for the Golden Horseshoe and parts of Eastern Ontario.

One of the biggest challenges with this forecast continues to be how far northwest the main bands of precipitation are able to push. Weather models are still not fully aligned on the exact placement of the heaviest snow, and that will make a big difference in who sees the highest totals. Central and Southwestern Ontario currently sit right on the edge of the storm’s reach.

If the system tracks a bit further east, some of these areas could see very little snow at all. On the other hand, a slightly more western track would bring accumulating snow much deeper into Southern Ontario and significantly expand the impact zone.

Confidence is much higher for areas closer to and east of the Lake Ontario shoreline. Regardless of the exact track, these regions are expected to see accumulating snow.

What remains uncertain is just how high the totals will climb. In a lower impact scenario, snowfall amounts would generally range from 20 to 25 cm around the GTA, with 10 to 20 cm extending eastward along the Lake Ontario shoreline into Eastern Ontario.

In a higher-end or overperforming scenario, localized pockets could approach 40 cm of snow, especially in and around the Toronto area. In that case, totals over 20 cm could extend across much of Eastern Ontario, parts of Central Ontario, and even into portions of Deep Southwestern Ontario. At this point, both outcomes remain plausible depending on how the system evolves.

Regardless of the final totals, this storm is expected to produce hazardous travel conditions, especially as snowfall intensity ramps up Sunday afternoon and evening. Roads are likely to become snow-covered and slippery, with visibility reduced at times during heavier bursts of snow. Conditions should slowly begin to improve overnight into Monday morning, but the impacts will not end there.

Given the amount of snow that is likely to fall, there is a high probability of significant impacts to the Monday morning commute. This includes the strong potential for school bus cancellations and school closures across parts of Southern and Eastern Ontario. Even if snowfall tapers off before daybreak, cleanup operations will still be ongoing during the morning hours.

Hourly snowfall rates (cm) - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

While we will have a more detailed look at timing in our final forecast late Saturday, current data suggests snowfall will begin to spread over parts of Southern Ontario late Sunday morning. Steady snow is expected to reach Deep Southwestern Ontario around 8 to 9 AM, gradually expanding northeastward through the day.

At the same time, there are growing signals that a lake effect snow band may develop over Lake Ontario and extend into areas north and northwest of the lake. This band could stretch from Belleville along the Highway 401 corridor, through Toronto, and westward toward Hamilton. This is an important detail, as lake enhancement could significantly boost snowfall totals in a narrow corridor.

High-resolution models are just beginning to come into range, but early indications show elevated snowfall totals along this corridor. In some cases, 10 to 20 cm of snow could fall even before the main system snow arrives later Sunday afternoon and evening. This would set the stage for very high totals once the storm fully ramps up.

Hourly snowfall rates (cm) - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The steadier, more widespread snow associated with the main system will continue to spread northeastward during the afternoon. Snowfall intensity is expected to increase through the Golden Horseshoe and into Central and Eastern Ontario as the evening progresses, with the heaviest rates focused near Lake Ontario.

Models are also hinting at the possibility of an embedded lake effect streamer developing and narrowly extending into parts of the western GTA. This includes Downtown Toronto and potentially Mississauga. If this band materializes, it would likely develop sometime during the afternoon and intensify into the evening hours.

The exact placement of this feature is highly uncertain and could shift around considerably. Because of that, snowfall totals could vary dramatically over relatively short distances. Where this band sets up, snowfall rates could double or even triple compared to surrounding areas, leading to very rapid accumulation in a short amount of time.

As the system begins to wind down overnight, this pocket of lake enhancement is expected to gradually weaken. Current model guidance suggests it may slowly sink southward through areas like Oakville, Burlington, and Hamilton as winds shift from easterly to northeasterly. This could prolong snowfall in those communities even as conditions improve elsewhere.

Most areas should see the snow taper off by around sunrise on Monday. However, parts of Eastern Ontario may see steadier snow linger through the morning hours before finally ending by the afternoon. Even after the snow stops, cleanup and travel impacts will continue for much of the day.

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When it comes to potential snowfall totals, this is shaping up to be a storm with significant variability, even across small areas. The lake enhancement component means there will likely be a narrow corridor somewhere through the GTA where totals approach or even exceed 40 cm, while nearby locations receive much less.

At this time, the highest totals are expected along the northern and western shoreline of Lake Ontario. Snowfall amounts in this zone are forecast to range from 20 to 40 cm. This includes areas such as Picton, Belleville, Brighton, Cobourg, Oshawa, Pickering, Toronto, Vaughan, Mississauga, Oakville, and Burlington.

Somewhere between Oshawa and Oakville, localized pockets near 40 cm appear most likely, which seems to be likely focused on parts of Toronto. Outside of those hotspots, much of this corridor is expected to fall into the 20 to 30 cm range. There is still a chance that totals could exceed 40 cm if the lake enhancement band is stronger or lingers longer than expected, though recent model runs suggest less overperforming potential than earlier data.

The rest of the Golden Horseshoe and much of Eastern Ontario away from the immediate Lake Ontario shoreline can expect generally 15 to 30 cm of snow from this storm. This includes places like Niagara, Brantford, Kitchener, Guelph, Orangeville, Newmarket, Peterborough, Kingston, Brockville, Ottawa, and Cornwall. We expect to tighten this range further once the storm track becomes clearer.

For Southwestern Ontario into parts of Central Ontario, current projections suggest totals in the 10 to 20 cm range. However, there is expected to be a very sharp cutoff on the northwest edge of the precipitation shield. This means snowfall totals could drop off quickly over short distances.

If the system does not extend far enough northwest, areas east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay could end up being mostly clipped by the snow, with minimal accumulation. In contrast, Deep Southwestern Ontario including Windsor, Chatham, and London appears most likely to see at least 10 cm of snow regardless of the final track.

Overall confidence in this forecast is fairly high thanks to strong agreement among most weather models. That said, the storm is still more than 24 hours away. This forecast remains preliminary and could change if there is a last minute shift in the data. While a major surprise is unlikely given the current consistency, it cannot be completely ruled out.

Our final forecast will be published Saturday evening once the latest data is available. At that time, we will provide a more precise snowfall range and a detailed timing breakdown so you have a clearer picture of what to expect throughout the day on Sunday and into Monday.

Potentially Coldest Night in Years Ahead for Southern Ontario as Arctic Air Sends Wind Chills Below -30°C

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An intense blast of Arctic air is set to surge across Ontario late Friday and into Saturday morning, bringing what could be the coldest conditions many areas have experienced in years. While snow squalls continue to dominate the forecast in parts of the province, the extreme cold arriving behind them will quickly become the more dangerous and widespread threat.

According to the latest data, wind chills will plunge sharply on Friday evening. Much of Southern Ontario will see overnight wind chills fall into the -30°C range, with several regions dropping into the -35°C to -40°C range by early Saturday morning. These values are cold enough to cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

The coldest conditions are expected across Central and Northern Ontario, where the core of this Arctic air mass settles in. Wind chills near or below -40°C are likely across much of the north, including areas from Sudbury through North Bay. Some localized spots could briefly dip closer to -45°C.

Across cottage country and central sections of the province, including Muskoka, Parry Sound, Simcoe County, and Peterborough, wind chills between -35°C and -40°C look increasingly likely. This region has already been dealing with persistent snowfall, which will only add to the risk as stranded motorists or anyone caught outdoors for extended periods could be exposed to life-threatening cold very quickly.

The forecast shows much of the Greater Toronto Area, including Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, and Vaughan, dropping into the -30°C to -35°C wind chill range by Saturday morning. This could mark the coldest morning Toronto has seen since 2016.

Across the western GTA, Hamilton, and Niagara, temperatures should hover in the low -20s, though wind chills will still make it feel close to -30˚C. A similar pattern is expected for parts of Bruce and Huron counties closer to Lake Huron, where slightly milder air off the lake may keep temperatures a few degrees warmer.

Saturday daytime temperatures will remain very cold, though not as brutally cold as seen in the morning. Expect temperatures in the teens with the wind chill making it feel below -20°C in many areas. Overnight Saturday, wind chills may return back to near -30°C into Sunday morning.

WIND CHILL - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Northern Ontario will bear the brunt of this event. Air temperatures are expected to drop toward -35°C, with wind chills approaching -45°C across a large portion of the region.

Some model guidance even suggests brief pockets of wind chills near -50°C, though confidence in those extreme values remains lower.

These conditions pose a serious risk to vulnerable individuals, particularly those who are unhoused or lack reliable access to warm shelter. Prolonged exposure to wind chills in the -30°C to -40°C range can become life threatening in a very short period of time. Even brief exposure during overnight hours can lead to frostbite or hypothermia, making this type of cold especially dangerous for people sleeping outdoors or in inadequately heated spaces.

The elderly are also at heightened risk during extreme cold events. Older adults may have reduced circulation, underlying health conditions, or difficulty sensing cold, all of which increase the risk of cold related illness. Those living alone or with limited mobility may struggle to maintain adequate indoor heating or may be unable to seek help quickly if something goes wrong.

Young children are another group that requires extra attention during this kind of cold. Their bodies lose heat more quickly, and they may not recognize early warning signs of frostbite or hypothermia. Even short trips outdoors without proper winter gear can become dangerous when wind chills drop this low.

Community members are encouraged to check in on neighbours, friends, and family, especially seniors or anyone known to be struggling with housing insecurity. Many municipalities and community organizations open warming centres during extreme cold events, and knowing where these resources are located can make a critical difference.

This kind of cold also places additional strain on infrastructure. Water mains are more vulnerable to freezing, older homes may struggle to retain heat, and power outages become more concerning when wind chills are this low. Anyone relying on supplemental heating should ensure proper ventilation, as carbon monoxide risk increases during prolonged cold spells.

Pet safety is another major concern during extreme cold events like this. Animals left outdoors for extended periods are at significant risk of frostbite and hypothermia, even if they are accustomed to winter conditions. Paw pads are especially vulnerable due to prolonged contact with snow and ice, and salt-treated surfaces can cause additional irritation.