February 18, 2026

‘Snow (Ice/Fog) Day’ Forecast: Persistent Freezing Drizzle Could Prompt Another Day of School Bus Cancellations in Southern Ontario on Thursday

February 18, 2026/ Brennen Perry

***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE***

As expected, Wednesday’s high-impact winter storm led to widespread school bus cancellations and even a handful of full school closures across Southern Ontario.

A messy mix of freezing rain, snow and ice pellets created hazardous travel conditions through much of the day, particularly across Southwestern Ontario and into parts of the Golden Horseshoe where icing was the dominant concern.

While the bulk of the steady precipitation has tapered off as we head into Wednesday evening, the story is not quite over yet.

An area of patchy freezing drizzle continues to linger across portions of Southwestern Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe. With temperatures holding below freezing in many communities, that drizzle is freezing on contact, adding a fresh glaze of ice to untreated roads, sidewalks and driveways.

Even a thin layer of additional ice accretion can quickly undo progress made by road crews earlier in the day, especially along rural routes and backroads.

This freezing drizzle is expected to persist through much of the overnight and may not fully taper off until early Thursday morning. That means icy patches are likely to remain a concern for the morning commute, particularly outside of the major urban centres.

At the same time, areas that rise slightly above freezing overnight, including Deep Southwestern Ontario and regions near Lake Huron and Lake Erie, are likely to see the development of thick fog. In some locations, visibility could be reduced significantly during the pre-dawn and early morning hours. While fog does not always lead to cancellations, it has triggered bus delays or localized cancellations in more rural school boards in the past.

Because of this combination of freezing drizzle and fog, there is a realistic chance that some school boards opt to cancel buses on Thursday, or at a minimum, delayed service during the morning when visibility is at its worst.

The highest probability for bus cancellations is focused in the higher elevations of Southwestern Ontario and other rural areas where freezing drizzle is expected to have the greatest impact. This includes Wellington and Dufferin counties under the Upper Grand District School Board, Hanover, Meaford, Owen Sound and the Bruce Peninsula under the Bluewater District School Board, and Perth County under the Avon Maitland District School Board.

These regions rely heavily on rural bus routes, many of which are more difficult to treat quickly during light icing events. While there is a good chance of cancellations here, there is still uncertainty regarding how widespread and persistent the freezing drizzle will be. For that reason, we are capping these areas at a 50 percent chance. It truly could go either way, depending on local road conditions by morning.

A broader swath of Southwestern Ontario extending into portions of Central Ontario carries a slight 25 percent chance of cancellations. This includes the West, Central and South weather zones under the Simcoe County District School Board, Northern Peel Region under the Peel District School Board, Northern Halton Region under the Halton District School Board, Guelph under the Upper Grand District School Board, the Waterloo Region District School Board, the Grand Erie District School Board, and Oxford County under the Thames Valley District School Board.

These regions are also expecting some freezing drizzle overnight, but many of these boards cover more urban routes or have shown a higher threshold for cancellation decisions this season. While slick conditions are possible, it remains uncertain whether they will be widespread enough to justify cancellations.

There is also a separate slight 25 percent chance tied primarily to fog development. This includes Elgin and Middlesex counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, the Lambton Kent District School Board, the Greater Essex County District School Board, Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, and Kincardine and Southampton under the Bluewater District School Board.

Fog-related cancellations are notoriously difficult to forecast, as visibility can vary dramatically over short distances. When fog does become dense enough, however, some rural boards have shown a willingness to cancel buses. Because of that unpredictability, 25 percent is the highest probability we assign to fog-driven events.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, the chance of bus cancellations drops to low or very low. We are not expecting the freezing drizzle to be significant enough to prompt cancellations in the urban core of the Greater Toronto Area. However, a low chance remains simply due to localized icy patches.

Similarly, no widespread cancellations are expected across Eastern Ontario or northern sections of Central Ontario, where precipitation has largely ended, and conditions should steadily improve overnight.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

February 18, 2026

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations and Closures for Wednesday, February 18, 2026

February 18, 2026/ Alannah Campbell

Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

Green = No Cancellations
Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)
Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

Avon MaitIand Public & Huron-Perth CathoIic: There are multiple closures/cancellations, please visit this link for more details: https://hpsts.mybusplanner.ca/Alerts
BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: All busses are cancelled. All schools are closed.
Dufferin-PeeI Catholic: ALL buses in all zones are cancelled today.
Durham Public & Durham Catholic: All busses are cancelled.
Grand Erie Public & Brant HaIdimand Norfolk Catholic: Buses in all 4 zones are cancelled. Schools are closed.
HaIton Public & Halton Catholic: Transportation services are cancelled in all Zones (1, 2 & 3).
HamiIton Wentworth Public & Catholic: All transportation has been cancelled. Public schools are closed. Catholic schools remain open.
Kawartha Pine Ridge Public & Peterborough Victoria Northumberland Clarington Catholic: All busses are cancelled.
PeeI Public: All Transportation in Zone 1, Zone 2 and Zone 3 is cancelled.
Rainbow Public & Sudbury Catholic: All busses are cancelled for Manitoulin Island.
Simcoe County Public & Simcoe Catholic: Busses are cancelled in the North, West, Central, and South Zones.
All school vehicles have been cancelled in Zone 1 for St. Dominic's S.S. and Monsignor Michael O'Leary in the District of Muskoka. All school vehicles in Zone 2 for St. Mary's E.S (Huntsville) will run as scheduled.
Toronto Public & Toronto Catholic: School Transportation is cancelled.
Trillium Lakelands: All school vehicles to schools in Zone 1, Zone 4 and Zone 5 have been cancelled today.
Upper Grand Public & Wellington CathoIic: All school taxis and buses will not be operating.
WaterIoo Public & WaterIoo Catholic: All busses are cancelled.
York Public & York Catholic: All school bus and taxi transportation has been cancelled region-wide for today.

French Schools

Conseil catholique MonAvenir: Busses are cancelled for schools in Durham, Norfolk, York, Wellington, Waterloo, Toronto, Simcoe, Peterborough, Peel, Hamilton, Halton, and Brant
Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: Busses are cancelled in Huron Perth, Toronto, SImcoe, Peel, Kitchener-Waterloo, Hamilton, Halton, Durham, and Bruce-Grey.
Conseil scolaire public du Grand Nord de l’Ontario (CSPGNO): Busses are cancelled for Manitoulin Island.
Conseil scolaire Viamonde: Busses are cancelled in Huron Perth, Toronto, SImcoe, Peel, Kitchener-Waterloo, Hamilton, Halton, Durham, and Bruce-Grey.

February 17, 2026

Ice Storm Threat for Hamilton and Kitchener as Toronto and Barrie Face Snow and Icy Blast on Wednesday

February 17, 2026/ Brennen Perry

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A significant and potentially high-impact winter storm is set to take aim at Southern Ontario throughout the day on Wednesday, bringing a messy and complicated mix of freezing rain, ice pellets and heavy snow.

This is shaping up to be a true multi-hazard event, and depending on your exact location, the impacts could look very different. Some communities will be dealing with hours of relentless freezing rain and dangerous ice buildup, while others will see bursts of heavy snow mixed with ice pellets.

While the specific precipitation type will vary substantially from region to region, the one thing that is nearly universal is the timing. This storm is expected to peak during the height of both the morning and afternoon commutes. That alone will be enough to create widespread travel headaches across highways, city streets and rural roads alike.

The main story with this system will likely be the corridor of significant freezing rain focused south and west of the Greater Toronto Area. This includes Hamilton through Kitchener and Guelph, along with Perth, Wellington, Dufferin, Grey and Bruce counties. These areas are in the prime zone for prolonged icing.

Six to twelve hours of freezing rain beginning in the early morning and continuing into the late afternoon will allow ice to quickly accumulate on untreated roads, sidewalks, driveways, trees and power lines. In some communities, total ice accretion could approach 10 to 15 mm. That is more than enough to create dangerous travel conditions and begin causing infrastructure issues.

To make matters worse, wind gusts are expected to range from 40 to 60 km/h, with some areas potentially seeing localized gusts of 70 to 80 km/h through the morning and afternoon. When you combine strong winds with heavy ice accumulation, the risk of power outages increases significantly. Ice weighing down tree branches and power lines does not need much additional force to snap, and scattered to potentially widespread outages are possible in the hardest hit areas.

Unlike some freezing rain events where temperatures eventually rise above zero and help melt some of the ice, this system is not expected to feature a meaningful warmup. Cold air at the surface is likely to remain locked in place until at least Thursday, and possibly even into Friday. That means once surfaces are coated in ice, they may stay that way for an extended period of time. This could prolong power outages and keep travel conditions poor well beyond Wednesday.

Freezing drizzle may also linger through the later part of Wednesday and into early Thursday across parts of Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe. Even light drizzle can add a fresh glaze on top of existing ice, further worsening conditions and increasing the risk of slips, falls and vehicle collisions.

Further north and east, from around Lake Simcoe through Toronto, Peterborough and into Kingston, the focus shifts more toward a messy mix of ice pellets (sleet) and snow. While snowfall totals are not expected to be extreme, generally in the 5 to 15 cm range, the presence of ice pellets and occasional freezing rain will still make for slick and hazardous conditions.

Based on the latest model guidance, the first band of precipitation will arrive in Deep Southwestern Ontario during the early morning hours. Areas like Windsor, Sarnia and Chatham will be well above freezing, so precipitation here will fall mainly as rain.

As that precipitation spreads northeast through the morning, it will encounter below-freezing temperatures at the surface. That is where the transition to freezing rain will occur, with rain freezing on contact with cold surfaces. This swath of freezing rain is expected to expand as additional bands of precipitation move in through the mid-morning hours.

Conditions are likely to deteriorate quickly around Hamilton, Kitchener, Hanover and Owen Sound during the mid to late morning as steady freezing rain sets in. Roads may become icy in a short period of time, especially on untreated surfaces and elevated roadways such as bridges and overpasses.

By late morning, the freezing rain may edge into portions of Peel and York Region, along with Toronto. However, there remains some uncertainty with the temperature profile in these areas. It may begin as freezing rain but could quickly mix with or change to ice pellets and snow as colder air near Lake Simcoe resists the push of warmer air aloft. Even a few hours of freezing rain in the GTA during rush hour would be enough to cause significant delays and collisions.

By around noon, snow and ice pellets are expected to reach Barrie, with that messy mix extending into Toronto. Meanwhile, freezing rain will likely remain steady and relentless from Hamilton through Kitchener and Hanover, continuing to build ice on trees and power lines.

One key factor we will be watching closely is the potential for temperatures to actually drop slightly through the morning in some areas. If that happens, communities around Niagara and into London could briefly dip below freezing and transition from rain to freezing rain, increasing the icing risk in those areas.

Through the early afternoon, the corridor of freezing rain is expected to remain largely locked in place. By this time, ice accretion on many surfaces could be reaching significant or even crippling levels in the hardest hit communities.

Additional bursts of moderate to heavy precipitation during the afternoon could further add weight to already stressed trees and power lines. If damage is going to occur, it is most likely to ramp up during this period.

There is some good news as precipitation should begin to clear out of Southwestern Ontario by mid-afternoon. Areas that experience the worst of the freezing rain should see it taper off by late afternoon, although the impacts will linger.

By mid-afternoon, the leading edge of the heavier snow is expected to reach Orillia and Peterborough. There remains some uncertainty on how far north and east the steadier snow will extend before weakening. Some model guidance pushes it as far as Muskoka and Kingston, while others keep the bulk of it closer to Lake Simcoe.

Heavy snow and ice pellets with localized blowing snow will continue through the afternoon in these areas. Closer to Toronto, warmer air aloft may briefly push back in, potentially causing a switch back to freezing rain late in the event. Unfortunately, this could line up closely with the afternoon commute, leading to significant travel disruptions.

If possible, it would be wise to delay travel during both the morning and afternoon peak periods. Icy roads, reduced visibility and the potential for downed branches or power lines could make conditions dangerous in a hurry.

As the system weakens and begins to break apart over Central Ontario during the early evening, we may still see pockets of patchy freezing drizzle develop around the Golden Horseshoe and into Southwestern Ontario.

This includes many of the same areas hardest hit by earlier freezing rain. Even light drizzle could add additional ice and prolong impacts into Thursday morning, increasing the risk of school bus cancellations for a second consecutive day.

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When it comes to snowfall totals, there is some uncertainty due to the mixing with ice pellets. The heaviest swath of snow is most likely to extend from the northern tip of the Bruce Peninsula through Simcoe County and Southern Muskoka into the eastern GTA, Peterborough and Belleville area.

We are forecasting a general 5 to 15 cm for Barrie, Orillia, Gravenhurst, Lindsay, Port Perry, Peterborough, Cobourg, Belleville and Picton, with localized totals up to 20 cm possible if the system overperforms.

A similar 5 to 15 cm is forecast for Collingwood, Angus, Vaughan, Bradford, Newmarket, Toronto, Pickering and Oshawa. However, more mixing with ice pellets is expected in this zone, so totals may trend closer to the lower end of that range in many communities.

For Parry Sound, Huntsville, Haliburton, Tweed and Kingston, snowfall totals are expected to range from 2 to 5 cm. There is also a chance that some of these areas see very little accumulation if the storm weakens faster than currently projected.

Less than 2 cm of snow is expected across much of Eastern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley.

To the west, snowfall totals will decrease as ice pellets and freezing rain become the more dominant precipitation types. We are forecasting 2 to 5 cm for Wiarton, Shelburne, Orangeville and Oakville, with less than 2 cm further southwest.

Turning back to the freezing rain threat, the worst impacts are expected west of the Golden Horseshoe along the Hamilton through Kitchener to Owen Sound corridor.

Highest ice accretion is likely in Hamilton, Burlington, Cambridge, Kitchener, Listowel, Minto, Wingham, Mildmay, Port Elgin and Hanover. Ice storm conditions are possible here with 6 to 12 mm of icing, and localized pockets of 15 mm cannot be ruled out.

A zone including Owen Sound, Chatsworth, Arthur, Fergus and Guelph is also at risk for 6 to 12 mm of freezing rain accretion. There is some uncertainty here due to the potential mixing with ice pellets at times, especially late morning into early afternoon, which could limit totals somewhat.

Lower amounts of freezing rain are expected both to the southwest and northeast for different reasons.

To the southwest, more rain will mix in, limiting the duration of icing. Niagara on the Lake, St. Catharines, Woodstock, Clinton and Kincardine could see 2 to 6 mm of freezing rain, mainly during the latter part of the event as temperatures gradually slip below freezing.

Southern Niagara through Simcoe, Tillsonburg, London, Lucan and Goderich can expect less than 2 mm of freezing rain, with precipitation falling mainly as rain.

To the northeast, mixing with ice pellets will limit freezing rain totals. That includes Wiarton, Meaford, Orangeville, Brampton, Oakville, Mississauga and Toronto, where around 2 to 6 mm of freezing rain accretion is expected.

Less than 2 mm of icing is forecast for York Region and into Simcoe County, where snow and ice pellets should be the main precipitation types.

This is a complex and high-impact storm with significant variation over relatively short distances. We will continue to fine-tune these details as new data comes in, but now is the time to prepare for difficult travel, possible power outages and extended icy conditions across parts of Southern Ontario.

February 17, 2026

‘Snow (Ice) Day’ Forecast: School Bus Cancellations Almost Certain Across Southern Ontario With Major Winter Storm on Wednesday

February 17, 2026/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/2/18/bus-cancellations

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A major winter storm is set to take aim at a wide swath of Southern Ontario on Wednesday, bringing the threat of significant freezing rain in some regions and heavy snow in others.

The most hazardous conditions are expected to occur right at the height of the morning commute. That timing alone makes school bus cancellations and potentially even school closures highly likely in the hardest hit areas.

The highest confidence for bus cancellations is focused across Southwestern Ontario, particularly west of the Golden Horseshoe, where the most strongly worded alerts are currently in place from Environment Canada.

An orange-level freezing rain warning has been issued for this region, highlighting dangerous travel conditions and the potential for prolonged power outages. Freezing rain of this magnitude almost always leads to widespread cancellations, especially across rural routes where untreated roads can quickly become impassable.

Because of this, we have assigned a 90 percent chance of a snow day to all regions covered by the Bluewater District School Board, most areas within the Avon Maitland District School Board with the exception of southern Huron County, all of the Upper Grand District School Board, and the Waterloo Region District School Board. In these areas, it would be surprising to see buses operate given the expected severity of the icing.

The next tier carries a 75 percent chance of cancellations. This includes southern Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Oxford County under the Thames Valley District School Board, the Hamilton-Wentworth District School Board, northern Halton under the Halton District School Board, North Peel Region under the Peel District School Board, all regions within the Simcoe County District School Board, Kawartha Lakes under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Peterborough and Northumberland counties under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Central Hastings, Belleville and Prince Edward County under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services.

These areas either have a history of not being proactive with cancellations, as is often the case with urban boards in the Golden Horseshoe and Simcoe County, or they sit just outside the most intense freezing rain zone, where conditions could still be severe enough to justify cancellations. However, there remains enough uncertainty regarding whether it will reach the threshold for cancellations to keep them from being put in the 90% zone.

The forecast becomes more complicated across the core of the Greater Toronto Area. In our toss-up category, with a 50 percent chance, we have included the York Region District School Board, North Durham under the Durham District School Board, the Toronto District School Board, southern Peel Region under the Peel District School Board, and southern Halton under the Halton District School Board.

We believe that conditions will likely deteriorate enough to warrant cancellations in at least some of these areas. However, these boards cover more urban routes and have a higher threshold for cancellation decisions. The Toronto District School Board, in particular, tends to cancel only during the most extreme events due to its limited reliance on bused students. This makes proactive decisions less certain, even if conditions are forecasted to be hazardous.

Farther south, we have also assigned a 50 percent chance to the District School Board of Niagara, the Grand Erie District School Board, and London and Middlesex County under the Thames Valley District School Board. In these areas, less freezing rain is expected overall, and temperatures may rise above freezing during the morning. Whether cancellations occur here will depend heavily on actual surface conditions at decision time.

In Central Ontario, the toss-up zone also includes southern Muskoka and Haliburton under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, as well as North Hastings, and North, Central and South Lennox and Addington under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. These areas sit on the edge of the heavier snowfall zone associated with the storm. Some are currently under snowfall warnings calling for 10 to 15 cm. However, with totals not expected to be extreme and with TLDSB’s stricter approach to snow days this season, it remains uncertain whether thresholds will be met.

A slight 25 percent chance has been assigned to Chatham-Kent and Lambton County under the Lambton Kent District School Board, Elgin County under the Thames Valley District School Board, North Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Parry Sound and East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board, the remaining Tri-Board regions, and the Madawaska region under the Renfrew County District School Board.

We are leaning toward a regular school day in most of these areas. However, surprises are still possible, particularly in parts of Central Ontario if school boards opt for system-wide cancellations rather than region-by-region decisions. With no major winter weather warnings currently in effect for many of these regions, confidence in cancellations remains limited.

We have also included a slight chance for areas covered by the Rainbow District School Board, primarily due to Manitoulin Island being under a snowfall warning. Sudbury itself carries a lower probability and is expected to see a normal school day.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations drops to low or very low. This includes Deep Southwestern Ontario, where precipitation is expected to fall mainly as rain, and the Ottawa Valley, which is forecast to avoid the worst of this storm altogether.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

February 17, 2026

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations and Closures for Tuesday, February 17, 2026

February 17, 2026/ Alannah Campbell

Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

Green = No Cancellations
Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)
Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

Avon MaitIand Public & Huron-Perth CathoIic: There are multiple cancellations, please visit this link for more details: https://hpsts.mybusplanner.ca/Alerts
BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: All busses for are cancelled for the MORNING ONLY.
Greater Essex Public & Windsor Essex CathoIic: All Board Provided MORNING Transportation is Cancelled for County of Essex.
Lambton Kent Public & St. CIair Catholic: All busses cancelled the MORNING ONLY. Busses will run this afternoon.
Thames Valley Public & London CathoIic: All school vehicles in Middlesex, Oxford, Elgin Counties, and Red Zone are cancelled for the MORNING ONLY. Busses will run this afternoon.

French Schools

Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: Busses are cancelled for the County of Essex, Oxford, and Chatham-Kent
Conseil scolaire Viamonde: Busses are cancelled for Oxford and Chatham-Kent

February 17, 2026

Significant Winter Storm for Toronto, Hamilton, Barrie, Kitchener & Peterborough Area on Wednesday Threatens Travel and Power Outages

February 17, 2026/ Brennen Perry

A mid-week winter storm is on the horizon for Southern Ontario and threatens to bring a buffet of winter weather hazards starting Wednesday morning. This system will feature everything from a potential ice storm risk, raising the threat of widespread and prolonged power outages, to a quick blast of heavy snow with accumulations of up to 25 cm in some areas.

Significant impact on travel is likely, with the worst conditions expected to occur at the height of the morning rush hours across the Greater Toronto Area, Barrie, Kitchener and Hamilton. Roads could become very icy, snow covered, and hazardous in a relatively short period of time, especially where freezing rain and ice pellets are involved.

Widespread school bus cancellations are likely on Wednesday for many boards within the hardest hit regions. Even if your exact area misses the worst of the ice or snow, nearby regions could still see severe conditions that impact school buses.

While we are now less than 48 hours from the expected start of this winter storm, there are still several forms of divergence in the different weather models. That disagreement even extends to when the impacts are forecast to begin on Wednesday morning, which is a key detail for both the morning commute and school operations.

The HRRR (American) model shows a leading band of precipitation moving into areas from Grey Bruce through Lake Simcoe and into the Greater Toronto Area as early as 4 to 6 AM on Wednesday. This would be a very early start and would catch many people just as they are waking up and preparing to head out the door.

Temperatures are generally expected to be several degrees below freezing at the surface, with above-freezing temperatures aloft in the upper air. This setup allows for freezing rain to be the likely predominant precipitation type in that first band.

If that scenario does occur, it could lead to icy conditions developing quickly just in time for the morning commute and almost certainly mean school bus cancellations in many of these areas. Even a thin glaze of ice can be enough to cause vehicles to lose traction and make sidewalks and driveways extremely slippery.

That warm air aloft is likely to hit a wall somewhere around a line from Orillia to Kingston. Any precipitation that falls north of this approximate boundary will likely come down mainly in the form of snow instead of freezing rain, which will create a sharp transition zone over a relatively short distance.

Other models, however, do not show this first leading band of precipitation. Instead, they delay the onset of the weather until the arrival of the main precipitation band pushing in through Southwestern Ontario during the mid to late morning hours. This difference in timing and structure is one of the main reasons there is still some uncertainty in how the day will unfold.

By the mid-morning hours, a band of sleet and ice pellets is expected to extend from Barrie and Orillia through Peterborough and into Belleville.

This band of mixed precipitation is likely to gradually transition to heavy snow by the late morning or early afternoon as colder air in the upper levels is able to push further south. Once that colder air fully penetrates the upper levels, snowfall rates could increase quickly with less ice pellets mixed in.

There is some uncertainty on how long the warmer air aloft can hold on, and this will have a direct impact on the overall snowfall totals. The longer it can persist, the more ice pellets there will be, which tends to suppress the amount of precipitation that falls as fluffy, accumulating snow.

The battle zone is expected to be centered around a corridor from the Bruce Peninsula through the Dundalk Highlands and south into Peel and York Region along with the City of Toronto. In this corridor, we are expecting a few hours of freezing rain which will then transition to ice pellets sometime in the mid to late morning.

Again, there is some disagreement in the models on the temperature dynamics and the exact timing of when the ice pellets will start to mix in. The faster the switch over to ice pellets, the less pure icing that will be able to occur, which would slightly reduce the risk of serious ice buildup but still maintain hazardous travel.

Further to the south and west, an area of very heavy freezing rain is expected to persist throughout much of the late morning hours and continue into the afternoon. This zone includes Hamilton through Kitchener and into portions of Perth, Wellington, Grey and Bruce counties.

Significant icing is expected here, with accretion rapidly occurring on untreated roads, sidewalks, tree branches and power lines. The combination of a cold surface, steady freezing rain and heavier precipitation rates will allow ice to build up quickly and efficiently.

Regular rain is expected for Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia into London, the Lake Huron shoreline and into the Niagara region. In these areas, the surface warm-up should be substantial enough to avoid a prolonged freezing rain event.

Some brief freezing rain is possible for London and the Niagara region during the mid to late morning, but it should transition to regular rain after an hour or two as temperatures rise above the freezing mark at the surface. Even so, that short window could still lead to some localized slick spots before the changeover.

Another factor at play that will enhance the impact of this winter storm is the development of stronger wind gusts through the mid to late morning on Wednesday. These winds will overlap in both time and space with the heaviest precipitation for many areas.

Current data suggests the wind gusts could reach 40 to 60 km/h in the same regions that are seeing heavy precipitation from the winter storm. This combination of wind and wintry precipitation is what elevates the risk of more serious and prolonged impacts.

For those getting ice pellets and snow, the primary impact from the wind will be reduced visibility from blowing snow from the Bruce Peninsula through Simcoe County, Peterborough and Belleville. Localized whiteout conditions will be possible at times, especially in more open and rural stretches of highway.

More significantly though, this wind may combine with the heavy icing from the freezing rain. The ice load on power lines and tree branches will make them more susceptible to being blown down by the stronger wind gusts.

That increases the likelihood of power outages from Hamilton through Kitchener, Guelph and into the Hanover and Owen Sound area. In some cases, outages could last many hours or even longer if damage to infrastructure is widespread and crews have difficulty accessing affected areas due to road conditions.

Poor conditions will continue past noon into the early afternoon with a band of steady heavy snow stretching from Simcoe County through Peterborough and into Kingston. Travel in this corridor could be especially difficult as snowfall accumulates on top of any earlier ice or slush.

The leading edge of this band of snow is a little unclear, as some models have it continuing to expand northward into Central and Eastern Ontario. In that scenario, a swath of heavy snow could extend from Sudbury down into Muskoka and through Bancroft.

Other models keep the snow more localized to the corridor from Barrie through Peterborough and into Kingston. This difference will play a big role in determining which communities end up closer to the higher end of snowfall totals.

Patchy freezing rain and ice pellets will also continue across the Golden Horseshoe, although this is expected to gradually clear out during the first few hours of the afternoon. The precipitation type may still flip back and forth for a time as the temperature profile continues to evolve.

This may switch over to heavy snow, especially around Toronto, York and Durham Region by the early afternoon. That could bring a quick blast of heavy snow on top of the earlier icing and several hours of ice pellets, which would be enough to worsen road conditions again significantly.

This snow is expected to clear out by the late afternoon as it slowly breaks apart while moving deeper into Eastern Ontario. Conditions will gradually improve from west to east, but roads could remain messy into the evening even after the snow has ended.

Ottawa and areas around the Quebec border may see some light snow during the afternoon as this system continues to break apart. However, accumulation here should generally stay under 5 cm, which is on the lower side compared to areas further south and west.

**ESTIMATED TEMP** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

This winter storm will also create quite a temperature contrast across Southern Ontario. While Central and Eastern Ontario, extending into areas around Lake Simcoe, the Dundalk Highlands, Kitchener and the GTA, will be firmly below freezing throughout the duration of this system, other regions will have a completely different experience.

The same cannot be said for Deep Southwestern Ontario, which is likely to see very warm air move in through the morning and early afternoon. This will send temperatures to levels not seen since before the start of winter, creating a sharp dividing line across the province.

Some models have the Windsor, Chatham and Sarnia area pushing into the double digits. In the case of Windsor, some show a daytime high around 15 degrees at 2 PM, which is remarkably warm for a day when other parts of the province are dealing with a winter storm.

Instead of a winter storm, it will feel like an early taste of spring across Deep Southwestern Ontario. Rain and mild temperatures there will stand in stark contrast to the icy, snowy conditions unfolding just a few hours’ drive to the northeast.

London, the Lake Huron shoreline, and the Niagara region are expected to hover in the low to mid single digits. That will be just warm enough to stay mostly outside of the worst wintry precipitation, but nowhere near as warm as those further southwest.

It is important to note that this system brings a very tricky forecast because if models are off by even a fraction of a degree, it could significantly alter the mix of precipitation that an area sees. A subtle shift in the placement of the warm layer could either increase or decrease the overall impact dramatically.

As we have covered throughout the forecast, multiple areas of uncertainty remain, which should hopefully be cleared up by the time of our final forecast. Updated model data will help us refine the timing, precipitation types and amounts.

But with this being our preliminary forecast, we have initially gone with wider ranges on the forecast precipitation totals to cover the different scenarios. This is the most responsible approach when the atmosphere is finely balanced between different outcomes.

We expect to narrow these ranges in our final forecast as we gain better confidence in what will unfold. While significant changes to the overall setup are unlikely, we could see some shifts, with some areas jumping one category in either direction, especially if you are located right near the edge of one of the forecast zones.

Current indications suggest that the focus of the most significant impacts from this winter storm is likely to exist in a zone that encompasses Hamilton, Brantford, Burlington, Oakville, Cambridge, Guelph, Kitchener, Stratford, Woodstock, Mitchell, Listowel, Fergus, Arthur, Minto, Mildmay, Hanover, Chatsworth and Owen Sound. This is the area that currently has the highest risk for serious icing.

The predominant precipitation type throughout this event in that corridor is expected to be freezing rain, which may be quite heavy at times through the late morning and early afternoon. Periods of lighter freezing drizzle could fill in the gaps between heavier bursts.

This may reach ice storm levels, with the risk of widespread power outages through the hardest hit areas as the steady icing combined with strong wind gusts brings down tree branches and power lines. Travel may become dangerous or even impossible along some rural routes.

Ice accretion of 8 to 16 mm is possible here, and localized spots could see even higher amounts if heavier bands linger longer than expected. That much ice is more than enough to cause tree damage and infrastructure issues.

Another concerning aspect of this event is that much of this area is not expected to have a meaningful warm-up after the icing occurs. In fact, it is likely to remain below freezing through Thursday and into Friday.

That means impacts could persist for several days, as the ice will remain locked in place on surfaces, making cleanup and restoration efforts more challenging. Sidewalks, driveways and untreated back roads could remain treacherous well after the storm itself has moved on.

Further to the south and west, lower freezing rain accretion is expected as a transition to regular rain is expected for areas like the Niagara region through London and east of Lake Huron later in the morning. Here, temperatures rising above freezing will help limit ice buildup.

To the north and east of the main ice storm zone, we are expecting a zone including Dufferin County, along with Brampton, Vaughan, Mississauga and Toronto, to see a mix of all three wintry precipitation types. This is where the forecast becomes especially complex.

This will start with a few hours of freezing rain in the mid to late morning hours, amounting to up to 2 to 6 mm of ice accretion. Even on the lower end of that range, sidewalks and untreated surfaces will become slick.

By the late morning, this zone is expected to switch to ice pellets and then finally to heavy snow by the early afternoon. This changeover sequence will play a major role in how much snow is able to accumulate.

We have a large snowfall range here, with 5 cm on the low end and 15 cm on the upper end. This is due to the uncertainty around how long the ice pellets will last before switching over to snow.

If the switch over to snow happens faster than expected, this area could get closer to 15 cm of accumulation. A more delayed switch over would keep them closer to the 5 cm mark, as more of the precipitation would fall as denser, less-accumulating ice pellets.

Similarly, this uncertainty on the exact ratio of ice pellets and snow will be on display from the Bruce Peninsula through areas around Lake Simcoe and into Peterborough. Communities in this band will also see a wide spread of possible outcomes.

Snowfall totals here could range anywhere from 10 cm to 25 cm. Most models are showing a switch over to heavy snow by the late morning, which could allow many hours of steady heavy snow with hourly rates of 2 to 4 cm.

If this heavier snow scenario plays out, then general snowfall totals are likely to end up on the higher end of 15 to 25 cm. That would be enough to cause significant shovelling and plowing needs, along with difficult travel through the afternoon.

If more ice pellets mix in and continue for most of the event, it could keep totals as low as 10 cm, with more of the precipitation locked up as compact, crunchy pellets rather than fluffy snow. Even then, road conditions would still be quite poor.

Snowfall totals will drop off fast for regions further north into Central and Eastern Ontario. This is where the northern edge of the main snow band becomes more diffuse and less organized.

Disagreement in the models on how far north the band of snow will get means this corridor from Muskoka into Kingston could get anywhere from 2 cm to up to 10 cm of snow. Some towns could end up on the higher end if the band nudges a bit farther north than expected.

That drops down to 0 to 5 cm for Sudbury, through northern Muskoka, Bancroft and into Brockville. These areas will still see some impacts, but they should be less severe compared to the core zones further south, where ice and heavier snow are more likely.

February 16, 2026

‘Snow (Ice/Fog) Day’ Forecast: Freezing Drizzle & Fog May Extend Family Day Weekend for Some Students in Southern Ontario on Tuesday

February 16, 2026/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/2/17/bus-cancellations

Icy conditions are expected to develop across parts of Central and Eastern Ontario late Monday into Tuesday morning as freezing drizzle moves into the region. At the same time, areas of thick fog are forecast to form across parts of Southwestern Ontario, which could locally reduce visibility to near zero in some communities.

This combination of freezing drizzle and fog has the potential to create hazardous travel conditions for the Tuesday morning commute. As a result, we are likely to see at least some school bus cancellations, with the greatest risk focused on Eastern Ontario, where the most widespread icing is expected.

Although Environment Canada has only issued a freezing drizzle advisory for the Ottawa area at this time, the latest forecast data suggests that the freezing drizzle may be more widespread than currently indicated. If that materializes, much of Central and Eastern Ontario could wake up to icy roads, untreated surfaces and slippery rural routes that linger into the morning.

Our highest confidence for cancellations is centred on the more rural school boards of Eastern Ontario. This includes areas covered by the Upper Canada District School Board, the Renfrew County District School Board, including the Madawaska region, and North Hastings, North Lennox and Addington, and North and Central Frontenac under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services.

These areas rely heavily on rural and secondary roads, which are typically the slowest to improve when freezing drizzle develops overnight. We have assigned these regions a 75 percent chance of school bus cancellations. While cancellations appear likely, there is still some uncertainty regarding how widespread and persistent the icing will be, which keeps these boards just below the highest confidence tier.

In the toss-up category, we have Ottawa, where the urban nature of the school board creates more uncertainty about whether freezing drizzle will meet cancellation thresholds. We have also assigned a 50 percent chance to the remaining Tri-Board regions, excluding Prince Edward County, Pembroke under the Renfrew County District School Board, Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Haliburton under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board.

In these areas, the timing of the precipitation is less certain, and some locations may see freezing drizzle taper off earlier in the night, allowing for potential cleanup before morning. Decisions in these regions will likely come down to local road conditions and how quickly crews can respond overnight.

A slight chance, around 25 percent, extends into regions farther west and south of the core freezing drizzle zone. This includes areas covered by the Near North District School Board, Muskoka and Kawartha Lakes under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Northumberland County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Prince Edward County within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. We are leaning toward buses running in most of these areas, but localized icy patches cannot be ruled out depending on how much freezing drizzle falls and how quickly temperatures stabilize.

Meanwhile, thick fog is expected to develop across portions of Southwestern Ontario overnight into Tuesday morning. In the past, some rural school boards have chosen to cancel buses or implement delays when fog significantly reduces visibility, particularly on exposed country roads.

However, fog can be highly localized and difficult to forecast precisely. Because of that uncertainty, we have capped the highest probability at 25 percent for areas covered by the Avon Maitland District School Board, as well as Oxford, Elgin and Middlesex counties under the Thames Valley District School Board.

Outside of the freezing drizzle and fog risk zones, the chance of school bus cancellations drops to low or very low. At this time, no cancellations are expected across the urban school boards of the Greater Toronto Area.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

February 12, 2026

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Friday, February 13, 2026

February 12, 2026/ Brennen Perry

No impactful winter weather is expected across Southern Ontario throughout the school day on Friday.

As a result, all regions have a less than 5 percent chance of school bus cancellations.

Some heavy snow is expected to move into Central Ontario later on Friday, but it isn’t expected to start until the late afternoon, so it should have no impact on the school day.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

February 11, 2026

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Thursday, February 12, 2026

February 11, 2026/ Brennen Perry

Scattered lake effect snow east of Lake Huron has continued to impact portions of Grey, Bruce, Huron and Perth counties throughout the day on Wednesday. While snowfall rates have not been particularly intense, localized blowing snow has created pockets of reduced visibility, especially on exposed rural routes.

This activity is expected to persist overnight and into Thursday morning. However, significant additional accumulation is not anticipated, with most areas seeing only light to moderate snowfall.

Even without heavy new snowfall, the combination of existing snow on the ground and gusty winds could still create locally treacherous travel conditions in parts of the Lake Huron snowbelt. Because of this, there remains a chance that a few school boards may opt to cancel buses on Thursday morning.

The strongest probability is focused on southern Bruce County within the Bluewater District School Board and northern Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board. These areas are most exposed to Lake Huron and are more susceptible to blowing and drifting snow. We have assigned these regions a 50 percent chance of school bus cancellations. With no major accumulation expected, the final decision will likely hinge on how intense the blowing snow is during the early morning hours. Current forecasts suggest winds may begin to ease overnight, which keeps this scenario uncertain.

The remainder of the Avon Maitland District School Board, along with central Bruce County and southern Grey County within the Bluewater District School Board, has been assigned a slight 25 percent chance. While some localized blowing snow may occur, confidence is higher that buses will be able to operate normally in these regions, given that they are outside the most intense snowfall bands tonight.

Outside of the Lake Huron shoreline and adjacent snowbelt areas, no impactful winter weather is expected on Thursday. As a result, school bus cancellations are unlikely across the rest of Southern Ontario.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

February 10, 2026

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Localized School Bus Cancellations Possible on Wednesday in Parts of Southern Ontario

February 10, 2026/ Brennen Perry

While the heavier snow that impacted parts of Eastern Ontario earlier on Tuesday has begun to wind down, lingering impacts may still be felt into Wednesday morning. This will be especially true in rural areas, where secondary roads and backroads may remain snow-covered or poorly cleared by the time buses are scheduled to be on the road.

Behind this departing system, attention turns back to the lakes. Some scattered lake effect snow is expected to redevelop east of Lake Huron overnight and continue into Wednesday morning. Gusty winds, at times reaching 50 to 60 km/h, may combine with this snow to produce areas of blowing and drifting snow. This setup could lead to locally reduced visibility and difficult travel conditions through portions of Grey Bruce and extending into Huron and Perth counties.

Because of this, the strongest chance for school bus cancellations on Wednesday is focused on southern Bruce County within the Bluewater District School Board. This region is most directly exposed to Lake Huron and typically sees stronger wind gusts when lake effect activity is present. Even lighter snowfall amounts can quickly become problematic here due to blowing snow on rural routes.

That said, there is still some uncertainty with this setup. Ice coverage on Lake Huron has increased substantially, which can limit how organized and intense the lake effect snow becomes. We have seen several recent events underperform, likely due to forecast models overestimating the available moisture from a partially frozen lake. Because of this uncertainty, and with no active Environment Canada alerts currently in place, we have capped the probability at 50 percent for southern Bruce County, as it could genuinely go either way.

A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to the remainder of the Bluewater District School Board, as well as northern sections of Huron and Perth counties, under the Avon Maitland District School Board. In these areas, significant new snowfall is not expected. However, strong winds could still lead to localized blowing and drifting snow, which may be enough to prompt a few cancellations, particularly on exposed rural routes.

We have also extended a 25 percent chance into parts of rural Eastern Ontario. This includes areas covered by the Upper Canada District School Board, North and Central Frontenac, North Lennox and Addington, and North Hastings under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, as well as the Madawaska region under the Renfrew County District School Board.

While active snowfall should be over by Wednesday morning in these regions, experience has shown that backroads can take longer to fully clear when snow tapers off the evening before. That lingering cleanup concern keeps a few of these boards in play for isolated cancellations.

Outside of these areas, the probability drops off quickly. A widespread low to very low chance has been assigned across adjacent school boards through Central Ontario and into the rest of Eastern Ontario.

While the odd surprise cancellation cannot be completely ruled out based on local road conditions, we are not expecting any widespread issues, and most school boards should see a normal return to classes on Wednesday.

Across Deep Southwestern Ontario, along the Lake Erie shoreline and throughout the Golden Horseshoe, school bus cancellations are not expected. Conditions in these regions should remain manageable, with no significant snowfall or blowing snow anticipated overnight or into the morning.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

February 10, 2026

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations and Closures for Tuesday, February 10, 2026

February 10, 2026/ Alannah Campbell

Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

Green = No Cancellations
Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)
Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

Near North Public & Nipissing-Parry Sound CathoIic: School bussing is cancelled in the West Nipissing, West Parry Sound, and East Parry Sound South Weather Zones.
Ottawa CarIeton Public & Ottawa Catholic: All school bus/van transportation is cancelled.
Rainbow Public & Sudbury Catholic: Morning and afternoon transportation cancelled in Espanola, Massey, and Sudbury Districts. Morning transportation cancelled on Manitoulin Island - transportation will resume this afternoon only on the Island.
Renfrew County Public & Renfrew County Catholic: Transportation services are CANCELLED for ALL AREAS.
Tri-Board: Transportation is cancelled in North Hastings, Centre Hastings, North & Central Lennox & Addington, North & Central and South Frontenac weather zones.
Upper Canada Public & Eastern Ontario CathoIic: All transportation is cancelled.

French Schools

Conseil des écoles publiques de l’Est de l’Ontario (CEPEO): All busses are cancelled.
Conseil scolaire de district catholique de l'Est Ontarien (CSDCEO): All busses are cancelled.
Conseil des écoles catholiques de langue française du Centre-Est: All busses are cancelled.
Conseil scolaire public du Grand Nord de l’Ontario (CSPGNO): Morning and afternoon transportation cancelled in Espanola, Massey, and Sudbury Districts. Morning transportation cancelled on Manitoulin Island - transportation will resume this afternoon only on the Island.
Le Conseil scolaire public du Nord-Est de l’Ontario (CSPNE) & Conseil scolaire catholique Franco-Nord: School bussing is cancelled in the West Nipissing, West Parry Sound, and East Parry Sound South Weather Zones.

February 09, 2026

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Up to 10-20cm of Snow on Tuesday Could Bring Widespread Bus Cancellations to Parts of Southern Ontario

February 09, 2026/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/2/10/bus-cancellations

Widespread snow is expected to spread across much of Central and Eastern Ontario overnight and continue into Tuesday morning. This system will bring a steady period of snowfall that is likely to create hazardous travel conditions through the morning and into the early afternoon, with reduced visibility and snow-covered roads becoming an issue during the busiest travel periods of the day.

While snowfall totals are not expected to be extreme, most areas will see general accumulations in the 10 to 15 cm range, with localized totals approaching 20 cm where snowfall rates remain steadier. The bigger concern with this event is not the total amount of snow, but rather the timing, as the worst conditions are expected to coincide with the morning commute and linger well into the afternoon.

Because of this, there is a meaningful chance that some school boards will opt to cancel buses on Tuesday, particularly in regions where snow is actively falling at the time decisions are made early in the morning.

At this time, Environment Canada has opted to issue a special weather statement rather than a snowfall warning, citing slightly lower totals than what some models are suggesting. This adds an extra layer of uncertainty, as many school boards are less likely to act proactively without a formal warning in place. Should this be upgraded to a snowfall warning by Tuesday morning, confidence in bus cancellations would increase quickly.

Our highest confidence for school bus cancellations is focused on areas where snow is expected to be ongoing during the decision window. This includes Parry Sound and East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board. With steady snowfall expected through the early morning hours and limited time for cleanup, we have given these regions a 75% chance of bus cancellations on Tuesday.

In the next tier, we have a broad toss-up zone with a 50% chance, where outcomes could genuinely go either way. This includes Muskoka and Haliburton under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, North Bay within the Near North District School Board, North Hastings, North Lennox and Addington, and North and Central Frontenac under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, along with the Madawaska region under the Renfrew County District School Board.

Confidence is lower in these areas for a few reasons. In the case of TLDSB, this school board has been particularly strict with bus cancellations this season and may decide that this event does not meet their threshold without a snowfall warning. In Eastern Ontario, snowfall may not begin until later in the morning, meaning boards would need to be proactive based on forecast conditions rather than what is occurring at decision time. Regions that historically tend to act more cautiously have been placed into this 50% category.

A wider group of regions has been assigned a slight chance, around 25%. This includes the Bruce Peninsula under the Bluewater District School Board, the Simcoe North weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board, North Kawartha Lakes under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, the remaining Tri-Board regions, the Upper Canada District School Board, and the remainder of the Renfrew County District School Board. These areas sit just outside the zone of heaviest snowfall during the school day, making it questionable whether conditions will deteriorate enough to prompt cancellations.

For Ottawa, we have gone with a 10 percent chance. While some snow is expected, this system is not currently forecast to be intense enough to meet the higher threshold typically required for cancellations in a large urban school board. We have also extended a very low to low chance into parts of the Golden Horseshoe, particularly rural sections that could see a brief risk of freezing rain during the afternoon. If Environment Canada issues an alert for freezing rain by Tuesday morning, probabilities would increase, but confidence is not high enough at this point to go beyond a low chance.

No school bus cancellations are expected across Deep Southwestern Ontario or the urban school boards of the Greater Toronto Area. Snowfall in these regions will be minimal, and some areas may even climb above the freezing mark during the day on Tuesday, further reducing the likelihood of travel disruptions.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

February 09, 2026

Snowy Blast Could Bring 10-20cm of Fresh Snow to a Wide Swath of Southern Ontario on Tuesday

February 09, 2026/ Brennen Perry

The month of February has certainly been a lot quieter on the snow front across Southern Ontario compared to what many experienced during January. That stretch featured relentless lake effect squalls and several high-impact winter storms that seemed to roll through one after another. In contrast, February has so far offered more breaks between systems, even though we’ve still spent plenty of time locked in the deep freeze.

While temperatures have slipped well below seasonal levels again, the good news is that this cold snap is not expected to last. A gradual warming trend is forecast to take hold as we head into the middle of this week, with temperatures slowly climbing back toward seasonal norms as early as Tuesday.

However, that return to more seasonable temperatures comes with a trade-off. As we moderate, Southern Ontario will once again find itself squarely within the active storm track. And that pattern shift looks set to make itself known very quickly, as we continue to monitor a potentially widespread snow maker expected to impact the region on Tuesday.

A developing system is forecast to slide across Southern Ontario beginning overnight Monday and continuing through much of the day on Tuesday. Current guidance suggests this system has the potential to produce a broad swath of accumulating snow, particularly across Central and Eastern Ontario.

At this point, the highest confidence area for significant snowfall lies across Central and Eastern Ontario, where widespread accumulations of 10 to 20cm appear increasingly likely. While details are still being refined, confidence is growing that this will be a high-impact event for travel.

Given the timing, this system is expected to cause issues during both the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Snow is likely to be ongoing during the morning rush, with roads becoming increasingly snow covered as the day progresses. Conditions may briefly improve in some western areas by late afternoon, but parts of Eastern Ontario could be dealing with their worst conditions right as the evening commute begins.

In addition to snow, there is also a concern for mixed precipitation in parts of Southwestern Ontario and the western GTA. Some guidance continues to show a risk for freezing drizzle or freezing rain developing late Tuesday morning into the early afternoon, particularly along the London, Kitchener, Guelph and Hamilton corridor.

The system itself is expected to begin spreading into Southern Ontario from the northwest shortly after midnight Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The first areas to see snow will likely be Grey Bruce, Parry Sound, Simcoe County and Muskoka, with coverage expanding steadily southeastward through the pre-dawn hours.

By early Tuesday morning, snow should be fairly widespread across Central Ontario, with conditions continuing to deteriorate as snowfall rates increase.

**Hourly snowfall rates (cm)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As we move into the mid-morning hours, snow is expected to expand into the Highway 401 corridor east of Toronto, stretching toward Belleville, Kingston and beyond.

The heaviest pocket of snow during the morning hours is expected across parts of Central Ontario and areas surrounding Lake Simcoe. In these regions, snowfall rates could reach 2 to 3cm per hour at times. Combined with gusty winds, blowing snow and localized whiteout conditions are possible, which could make travel extremely difficult.

With those conditions developing during the morning hours, school bus cancellations are a strong possibility across parts of Central Ontario, particularly where the heaviest snow bands set up.

By the late morning hours, steady snow is expected to overspread much of Eastern Ontario, including Kingston and extending northward into the Ottawa Valley. Snowfall rates are expected to gradually increase through the afternoon as the system strengthens while pushing east.

At the same time, we continue to monitor the risk of mixed precipitation further west. Some models are indicating a narrow zone where warmer air aloft could allow freezing rain, freezing drizzle or even ice pellets to briefly mix in with the snow. The highest risk for this appears to be from London through Kitchener, Guelph and Hamilton, though it may extend north toward Barrie and east into York Region and parts of Toronto.

Confidence remains low on how much icing will occur and for how long. Most indications suggest this risk would be brief and taper off by early afternoon as the system continues east. Even so, any freezing rain could lead to icy road conditions, especially on untreated rural roads and side streets.

As we move into the afternoon, snow is expected to taper off from west to east across much of Southern Ontario. However, conditions may actually worsen further east as the system intensifies while moving into Eastern Ontario.

Some model data shows the potential for rapid intensification of snow bands across Eastern Ontario during the mid to late afternoon. In these scenarios, snowfall rates could briefly approach 4 to 5cm per hour for an hour or two. If that materializes, snow could pile up very quickly and lead to snow-covered roads just as the evening commute gets underway.

This raises concern for a particularly difficult evening commute through Kingston, Brockville and much of the Ottawa Valley, where travel conditions could deteriorate rapidly in a short period of time.

When it comes to snowfall totals, this is shaping up to be one of those systems where there is fairly strong agreement across the models.

Most of Central and Eastern Ontario, extending into Northeastern Ontario, can expect general snowfall totals in the 10 to 15cm range by the time snow winds down Tuesday evening. This includes areas such as Ottawa, Cornwall, Brockville, Smiths Falls, Renfrew, Bancroft, Bracebridge, Huntsville, Algonquin Park, Parry Sound, North Bay, Sudbury and Elliot Lake.

We have opted to use a slightly broader forecast range of 10 to 20cm to account for the potential that the system overperforms in some areas. A few models continue to suggest totals creeping above 15cm in parts of Eastern Ontario, which would push localized amounts closer to the upper end of that range.

There is also a low but non-zero risk that isolated pockets could approach 25cm, particularly if intense snowfall rates linger over the same area for an extended period of time in Eastern Ontario. At this stage, totals above 20cm remain questionable and are not the most likely outcome.

Further south, snowfall totals are expected to be lower. These areas will likely sit south of the strongest precipitation bands, and temperatures closer to the freezing mark will also work against higher accumulations.

A zone stretching from the Bruce Peninsula through Owen Sound, Collingwood, Midland, Barrie, Orillia, Peterborough, Oshawa, Belleville and Kingston is expected to see around 5 to 10cm of new snow. There is a chance that the northern edge of this zone, particularly near Orillia and Peterborough, could see localized totals closer to 15cm if heavier bands shift slightly south.

Southern Grey Bruce, Kitchener, Guelph and parts of the western GTA are expected to see less than 5cm of snow overall. However, these areas carry the highest risk for freezing rain, with up to 2mm of ice accretion possible during the late morning period.

Deep Southwestern Ontario, including London and extending into the Niagara region, is expected to see little to no snow from this system. Temperatures here may briefly rise above the freezing mark on Tuesday, making regular rain the most likely precipitation type for much of the event.

We will continue to refine the forecast as higher resolution guidance comes into range, especially with regards to the freezing rain risk and the potential for intense snowfall rates in Eastern Ontario. Stay tuned for updates as we get closer to Tuesday.

February 08, 2026

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow/Cold Day’ Forecast for Monday, February 9, 2026

February 08, 2026/ Brennen Perry

While no precipitation is expected across Southern Ontario on Monday, there is still a slight chance of school bus cancellations tied to extreme cold in some parts of the region.

The coldest conditions are expected to be found across portions of Central and Eastern Ontario, where overnight lows combined with wind chills could make it feel near -40°C. Actual air temperatures in these areas may dip into the -25 to -30°C range by Monday morning. This places temperatures very close to the threshold that typically prompts cold-related bus cancellations.

That said, confidence is not particularly high. Some forecast guidance keeps temperatures just warm enough to stay below that cancellation threshold, while other models suggest a slightly colder outcome. With cold events like this, even a difference of a couple of degrees can make a big difference when it comes to school board decisions.

Because of this uncertainty, we have assigned a 25 percent chance of cold-related bus cancellations to Muskoka and Haliburton under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Parry Sound and East Parry Sound within the Near North District School Board, North Hastings, North Lennox and Addington, and North and Central Frontenac under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, as well as the Madawaska region within the Renfrew County District School Board. If any cold day cancellations are announced on Monday, they are most likely to occur within this group of school boards.

Outside of these areas, the probability drops off quickly. We have extended a low to very low chance into parts of rural Southwestern Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe. While temperatures here are not expected to reach cold-day thresholds, it cannot be completely ruled out if overnight lows end up a few degrees colder than forecast, particularly in more exposed rural areas.

For the remainder of Southern Ontario, school bus cancellations are not expected on Monday. Conditions elsewhere should remain cold but manageable, staying below the level that would typically lead to widespread cold-related disruptions.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

February 06, 2026

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations and Closures for Friday, February 6, 2026

February 06, 2026/ Alannah Campbell

Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

Green = No Cancellations
Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)
Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

Avon MaitIand Public & Huron-Perth CathoIic: There are several closures/cancellations, please visit this link for more details: https://hpsts.mybusplanner.ca/Alerts
BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: All busses are cancelled.
Lambton Kent Public & St. CIair Catholic: Busses in all zones are cancelled.
Renfrew County Public & Renfrew County Catholic: Busses are cancelled for Zone 4 Madawaska.
Thames Valley Public & London CathoIic: School purpose vehicles are cancelled in Middlesex, Oxford, Elgin Counties, and Red Zone.

French Schools

Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: Busses are cancelled in Oxford, Middlesex, Lambton, and Chatham-Kent.
Conseil scolaire Viamonde: Busses are cancelled in Oxford, Middlesex, Lambton, and Chatham-Kent.

February 05, 2026

Blowing Snow and Near-Blizzard Conditions Could Threaten Friday Evening Commute Across Southern Ontario

February 05, 2026/ Brennen Perry

This week has mostly offered a much-needed reprieve from what felt like an endless onslaught of snow that dominated much of January. For many across Southern Ontario, it finally felt like winter eased up a little. Aside from an Alberta Clipper earlier this week, snowfall became lighter and more scattered, and we even managed to climb out of the deep freeze over the past few days, with temperatures returning closer to seasonal norms for early February.

That quieter stretch is now coming to an end as we head into the weekend. A fast-moving but potent weather system is set to cross the region on Friday, bringing a quick blast of heavy snow, strong winds, and sharply falling temperatures. While this will not be a long-duration storm, its timing and intensity could still cause significant disruption.

The main feature to watch will be a cold front sweeping across Ontario on Friday afternoon and evening. Along the leading edge of this front, a frontal squall is expected to develop. This type of setup is known for producing intense snowfall over a very short period of time, often accompanied by rapidly worsening visibility.

As this squall moves through, whiteout conditions are likely to develop with little warning. Snowfall rates could become very heavy for one to two hours in many areas, which is more than enough time for roads to become snow-covered and slippery before plows are able to respond.

Wind will be another major factor with this system. In the wake of the cold front, wind gusts are expected to ramp up quickly. Many areas could see gusts exceeding 70 km/h, with even stronger gusts possible in some locations. This combination of fresh snow and strong winds will lead to widespread blowing snow and significantly reduced visibility.

Unfortunately, the worst of these conditions is expected to line up with the afternoon and early evening commute across much of Southwestern and Central Ontario. Travel conditions could deteriorate rapidly during this window, especially on highways and open rural roads where blowing snow tends to be more severe.

Snowfall totals from this system are not expected to be extreme by winter standards. Most areas are generally looking at around 5 to 10 cm of snow, with locally higher amounts possible. Areas near Lake Huron could see totals exceed 10 cm due to minor lake enhancement adding to the frontal snow.

The bigger concern is not how much snow falls, but how quickly it falls. With most of the accumulation occurring in a narrow one to two-hour window, roads can become snow-covered very quickly. This rapid accumulation often leads to poor driving conditions even when overall totals are modest.

Snow is expected to begin spreading into Southwestern and Central Ontario during the mid-morning hours on Friday. At this point, winds should still be relatively light. Snowfall rates during the morning should generally remain below 1 cm per hour, which means conditions should stay manageable for the early part of the day.

This initial area of light snow will gradually expand eastward through the late morning and early afternoon, reaching Eastern Ontario as the day goes on. Travel impacts during this phase are expected to be limited, though roads may start to become slick in spots.

By mid to late afternoon, attention turns to the arrival of the sharp cold front. This front will have three main impacts on the region, with the first being the intense frontal squall along its leading edge.

The squall is expected to begin moving into parts of Northern Ontario and the Lake Huron region sometime between 2 and 4 PM. From there, it will push steadily southeastward through the afternoon.

The Muskoka to London corridor is likely to see the squall move through between roughly 4 and 6 PM. During this time, snowfall rates could become very heavy, and visibility may drop to near zero for brief periods.

As the squall continues southeast, it is expected to reach the Greater Toronto Area around the dinner hour. While it may weaken somewhat by this point, a burst of heavy snow and gusty winds is still possible.

By the early evening, the squall should be pushing into Eastern Ontario, reaching areas such as Kingston and Ottawa sometime around 9 to 10 PM. Even though it will be later in the day, conditions could still become hazardous for a time as it moves through.

Whiteout conditions may occur with little warning wherever the squall passes. These conditions could last for an hour or two in any given location, making travel very difficult during that brief window.

The second major concern with this system will be the strong winds developing behind the cold front. Wind gusts are expected to be strongest near Lake Huron, where some models are indicating gusts approaching 80 km/h from Goderich through Grand Bend and into London.

In this area, localized blizzard conditions are possible from the late afternoon into the evening hours. Environment Canada has mentioned that a blizzard warning may be required for parts of this region, though there remains some uncertainty regarding how long the strongest winds will last.

Even outside of the Lake Huron shoreline, many areas could see wind gusts between 50 and 70 km/h. These winds will be more than enough to cause blowing snow, especially with freshly fallen snow being easily lofted off the ground.

Blowing snow is likely to continue into the evening even after snowfall tapers off, prolonging travel impacts and keeping visibility reduced for several hours.

Another aspect being closely monitored is the potential for very strong wind gusts along higher elevations north of the Greater Toronto Area. Some models suggest a corridor of stronger winds following the Oak Ridges Moraine, extending from Durham Region through York Region and into parts of Peel Region.

In these areas, wind gusts could approach or even exceed 90 km/h. If this scenario materializes, there could be an increased risk of power outages and localized damage, especially in exposed areas.

Behind the cold front, lake effect snow is expected to develop along the Lake Huron shoreline Friday evening and continue overnight. The exact intensity of this lake effect snow remains somewhat uncertain.

A significant portion of Lake Huron is currently covered in ice, which can limit how much moisture the lake can supply. This may prevent the lake effect from becoming as intense as it otherwise could be.

However, the very strong winds will play a major role in impacts regardless of snowfall intensity. Wind gusts exceeding 70 km/h will likely lead to near blizzard conditions along the shoreline, with blowing snow continuing through the evening and into the overnight hours.

The third and perhaps most noticeable impact of this cold front will be the sudden return to bitterly cold temperatures. This drop in temperature will be sharp and abrupt, not gradual.

By Saturday morning, widespread wind chills are expected to make it feel well into the -30s across much of Southern Ontario. Some areas could even approach wind chills near -40°C.

Actual air temperatures are expected to range from -25°C to -30°C across most regions. Deep Southwestern Ontario, including areas closer to Lake Erie, may stay a bit milder, closer to -20°C.

As mentioned, snowfall totals from this event are not expected to be overly impressive on their own and would be considered fairly typical for this time of year. The real story will be the wind, the rapid snowfall rates, and the extreme cold that follows.

The highest snowfall totals are expected along the Lake Huron shoreline from Kincardine down through Grand Bend. In these areas, 5 to 10 cm from the frontal squall combined with locally 10 to 15 cm from lake effect snow could result in overall totals between 10 and 20 cm.

Elsewhere across Southwestern Ontario, excluding Deep Southwestern Ontario, as well as Central and Eastern Ontario, a general 5 to 10 cm of snow is expected. Localized pockets could approach 15 cm if the squall slows down or briefly stalls over an area.

For Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Sarnia and Windsor, along with the western portions of the GTA and the Niagara region, snowfall totals are expected to be lower. Around 2 to 5 cm is likely in these areas as the frontal squall weakens and becomes less organized.

Even in areas with lower snowfall totals, conditions could still become hazardous for a time due to strong winds, blowing snow, and rapidly falling temperatures as winter reminds us it is far from finished.

February 05, 2026

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Blast of Heavy Snow on Friday Afternoon May Lead to School Bus Cancellations in Parts of Southern Ontario

February 05, 2026/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/2/6/bus-cancellations

A messy weather setup is expected across Southern Ontario on Friday, as a burst of heavy snow moves into the region later in the day. Strong winds combined with falling snow are expected to create areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility, particularly through the afternoon and early evening hours. This has prompted Environment Canada to issue a widespread blowing snow advisory across much of Southwestern Ontario.

When it comes to impacts on school transportation, however, the situation is less straightforward. The worst conditions are expected to develop after the school day is already underway, with the most hazardous travel lining up closer to the afternoon commute rather than the morning bus run.

There may be some light snow around during the morning hours, but at this point, it does not appear to be enough on its own to meet the threshold that typically leads to school bus cancellations. Because of this timing, school boards would need to be proactive and factor in rapidly deteriorating conditions later in the day, rather than what is occurring at decision time in the early morning.

Given the blowing snow advisory from Environment Canada and the potential for travel conditions to worsen quickly while buses are on the roads in the afternoon, we have gone with a 50 percent chance for school bus cancellations for regions covered by the Bluewater District School Board, the Avon Maitland District School Board, and Middlesex County under the Thames Valley District School Board. This is very much a borderline scenario and could genuinely go either way. If this system were arriving a few hours earlier, confidence in cancellations would be much higher.

A second tier of regions carries a slight chance, around 25 percent, for a snow day on Friday. This includes areas covered by the Greater Essex County District School Board, the Lambton Kent District School Board, Elgin and Oxford counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board, the Near North District School Board, and the Rainbow District School Board. These areas are more rural in nature and are likely to see snow begin during or just ahead of the afternoon bus run. While most of these regions are expected to operate normally, a few localized decisions to cancel buses cannot be ruled out.

Outside of these zones, probabilities drop off further. We have assigned a widespread low to very low chance across rural school boards around the Golden Horseshoe and extending into parts of Central and Eastern Ontario. In these areas, the bulk of the snow is expected to arrive closer to the dinner hour, which greatly reduces the likelihood of school boards cancelling buses earlier in the day.

That said, if Environment Canada expands blowing snow advisories farther east or begins highlighting particularly poor travel conditions during the afternoon commute, some of the more weather-sensitive school boards could opt to cancel buses as a precaution.

For the more urban school boards, including those across the Greater Toronto Area and the Ottawa region, we are not expecting any school bus cancellations on Friday. Conditions in these areas are not forecast to come anywhere near the threshold that typically prompts cancellations, and travel should remain manageable through the school day.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

February 04, 2026

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Thursday, February 5, 2026

February 04, 2026/ Brennen Perry

No impactful winter weather is expected across Southern Ontario throughout the day on Thursday.

As a result, all regions have a less than 5 percent chance of school bus cancellations.

It’s shaping up to be a quiet and routine school day, so… do your homework!

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

February 03, 2026

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Wednesday, February 4, 2026

February 03, 2026/ Brennen Perry

No impactful winter weather is expected across Southern Ontario throughout the day on Wednesday.

As a result, all regions have a less than 5 percent chance of school bus cancellations.

It’s shaping up to be a quiet and routine school day, so… do your homework!

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

February 02, 2026

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Tuesday, February 3, 2026

February 02, 2026/ Brennen Perry

Periods of light snow are expected tonight into Tuesday across Southern Ontario.

Snowfall amounts are expected to remain fairly minor, with most areas picking up less than 5 cm by the time the snow tapers off late Tuesday. Because of this, conditions are not expected to deteriorate enough to reach the threshold that typically leads to school bus cancellations.

That said, there is a very small window for isolated impacts in a few regions near the lakes. We have assigned a very low chance to areas covered by the Bluewater District School Board, the Avon Maitland District School Board and the Near North District School Board. In these regions, snow is expected to be heaviest close to the time when school boards are making their morning decisions.

In addition, slightly stronger winds near the Lake Huron and Georgian Bay shorelines could lead to some localized blowing snow, briefly reducing visibility on exposed rural routes. Even so, snowfall rates and overall accumulation should remain limited, making cancellations unlikely.

Because of these marginal factors, we have gone with a 5 percent chance for these regions. This is very much a “don’t count on it” scenario, and the expectation remains that buses will run as normal.

Everywhere else across Southern Ontario is not expected to see any chance of a snow day on Tuesday. Snowfall should be light, roads should remain manageable, and no significant travel disruptions are anticipated.

So despite a bit of light snow in the forecast, Tuesday is shaping up to be a routine school day across the province. In other words, homework is still on the schedule!

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

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