Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Thursday, February 12, 2026

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Scattered lake effect snow east of Lake Huron has continued to impact portions of Grey, Bruce, Huron and Perth counties throughout the day on Wednesday. While snowfall rates have not been particularly intense, localized blowing snow has created pockets of reduced visibility, especially on exposed rural routes.

This activity is expected to persist overnight and into Thursday morning. However, significant additional accumulation is not anticipated, with most areas seeing only light to moderate snowfall.

Even without heavy new snowfall, the combination of existing snow on the ground and gusty winds could still create locally treacherous travel conditions in parts of the Lake Huron snowbelt. Because of this, there remains a chance that a few school boards may opt to cancel buses on Thursday morning.

The strongest probability is focused on southern Bruce County within the Bluewater District School Board and northern Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board. These areas are most exposed to Lake Huron and are more susceptible to blowing and drifting snow. We have assigned these regions a 50 percent chance of school bus cancellations. With no major accumulation expected, the final decision will likely hinge on how intense the blowing snow is during the early morning hours. Current forecasts suggest winds may begin to ease overnight, which keeps this scenario uncertain.

The remainder of the Avon Maitland District School Board, along with central Bruce County and southern Grey County within the Bluewater District School Board, has been assigned a slight 25 percent chance. While some localized blowing snow may occur, confidence is higher that buses will be able to operate normally in these regions, given that they are outside the most intense snowfall bands tonight.

Outside of the Lake Huron shoreline and adjacent snowbelt areas, no impactful winter weather is expected on Thursday. As a result, school bus cancellations are unlikely across the rest of Southern Ontario.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Localized School Bus Cancellations Possible on Wednesday in Parts of Southern Ontario

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

While the heavier snow that impacted parts of Eastern Ontario earlier on Tuesday has begun to wind down, lingering impacts may still be felt into Wednesday morning. This will be especially true in rural areas, where secondary roads and backroads may remain snow-covered or poorly cleared by the time buses are scheduled to be on the road.

Behind this departing system, attention turns back to the lakes. Some scattered lake effect snow is expected to redevelop east of Lake Huron overnight and continue into Wednesday morning. Gusty winds, at times reaching 50 to 60 km/h, may combine with this snow to produce areas of blowing and drifting snow. This setup could lead to locally reduced visibility and difficult travel conditions through portions of Grey Bruce and extending into Huron and Perth counties.

Because of this, the strongest chance for school bus cancellations on Wednesday is focused on southern Bruce County within the Bluewater District School Board. This region is most directly exposed to Lake Huron and typically sees stronger wind gusts when lake effect activity is present. Even lighter snowfall amounts can quickly become problematic here due to blowing snow on rural routes.

That said, there is still some uncertainty with this setup. Ice coverage on Lake Huron has increased substantially, which can limit how organized and intense the lake effect snow becomes. We have seen several recent events underperform, likely due to forecast models overestimating the available moisture from a partially frozen lake. Because of this uncertainty, and with no active Environment Canada alerts currently in place, we have capped the probability at 50 percent for southern Bruce County, as it could genuinely go either way.

A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to the remainder of the Bluewater District School Board, as well as northern sections of Huron and Perth counties, under the Avon Maitland District School Board. In these areas, significant new snowfall is not expected. However, strong winds could still lead to localized blowing and drifting snow, which may be enough to prompt a few cancellations, particularly on exposed rural routes.

We have also extended a 25 percent chance into parts of rural Eastern Ontario. This includes areas covered by the Upper Canada District School Board, North and Central Frontenac, North Lennox and Addington, and North Hastings under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, as well as the Madawaska region under the Renfrew County District School Board.

While active snowfall should be over by Wednesday morning in these regions, experience has shown that backroads can take longer to fully clear when snow tapers off the evening before. That lingering cleanup concern keeps a few of these boards in play for isolated cancellations.

Outside of these areas, the probability drops off quickly. A widespread low to very low chance has been assigned across adjacent school boards through Central Ontario and into the rest of Eastern Ontario.

While the odd surprise cancellation cannot be completely ruled out based on local road conditions, we are not expecting any widespread issues, and most school boards should see a normal return to classes on Wednesday.

Across Deep Southwestern Ontario, along the Lake Erie shoreline and throughout the Golden Horseshoe, school bus cancellations are not expected. Conditions in these regions should remain manageable, with no significant snowfall or blowing snow anticipated overnight or into the morning.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations and Closures for Tuesday, February 10, 2026

/

**Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update**

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

  • Green = No Cancellations

  • Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)

  • Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

  • Near North Public & Nipissing-Parry Sound CathoIic: School bussing is cancelled in the West Nipissing, West Parry Sound, and East Parry Sound South Weather Zones.

  • Ottawa CarIeton Public & Ottawa Catholic: All school bus/van transportation is cancelled.

  • Rainbow Public & Sudbury Catholic: Morning and afternoon transportation cancelled in Espanola, Massey, and Sudbury Districts. Morning transportation cancelled on Manitoulin Island - transportation will resume this afternoon only on the Island.

  • Renfrew County Public & Renfrew County Catholic: Transportation services are CANCELLED for ALL AREAS.

  • Tri-Board: Transportation is cancelled in North Hastings, Centre Hastings, North & Central Lennox & Addington, North & Central and South Frontenac weather zones.

  • Upper Canada Public & Eastern Ontario CathoIic: All transportation is cancelled.

French Schools

  • Conseil des écoles publiques de l’Est de l’Ontario (CEPEO): All busses are cancelled.

  • Conseil scolaire de district catholique de l'Est Ontarien (CSDCEO): All busses are cancelled.

  • Conseil des écoles catholiques de langue française du Centre-Est: All busses are cancelled.

  • Conseil scolaire public du Grand Nord de l’Ontario (CSPGNO): Morning and afternoon transportation cancelled in Espanola, Massey, and Sudbury Districts. Morning transportation cancelled on Manitoulin Island - transportation will resume this afternoon only on the Island.

  • Le Conseil scolaire public du Nord-Est de l’Ontario (CSPNE) & Conseil scolaire catholique Franco-Nord: School bussing is cancelled in the West Nipissing, West Parry Sound, and East Parry Sound South Weather Zones.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Up to 10-20cm of Snow on Tuesday Could Bring Widespread Bus Cancellations to Parts of Southern Ontario

/

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/2/10/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Widespread snow is expected to spread across much of Central and Eastern Ontario overnight and continue into Tuesday morning. This system will bring a steady period of snowfall that is likely to create hazardous travel conditions through the morning and into the early afternoon, with reduced visibility and snow-covered roads becoming an issue during the busiest travel periods of the day.

While snowfall totals are not expected to be extreme, most areas will see general accumulations in the 10 to 15 cm range, with localized totals approaching 20 cm where snowfall rates remain steadier. The bigger concern with this event is not the total amount of snow, but rather the timing, as the worst conditions are expected to coincide with the morning commute and linger well into the afternoon.

Because of this, there is a meaningful chance that some school boards will opt to cancel buses on Tuesday, particularly in regions where snow is actively falling at the time decisions are made early in the morning.

At this time, Environment Canada has opted to issue a special weather statement rather than a snowfall warning, citing slightly lower totals than what some models are suggesting. This adds an extra layer of uncertainty, as many school boards are less likely to act proactively without a formal warning in place. Should this be upgraded to a snowfall warning by Tuesday morning, confidence in bus cancellations would increase quickly.

Our highest confidence for school bus cancellations is focused on areas where snow is expected to be ongoing during the decision window. This includes Parry Sound and East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board. With steady snowfall expected through the early morning hours and limited time for cleanup, we have given these regions a 75% chance of bus cancellations on Tuesday.

In the next tier, we have a broad toss-up zone with a 50% chance, where outcomes could genuinely go either way. This includes Muskoka and Haliburton under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, North Bay within the Near North District School Board, North Hastings, North Lennox and Addington, and North and Central Frontenac under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, along with the Madawaska region under the Renfrew County District School Board.

Confidence is lower in these areas for a few reasons. In the case of TLDSB, this school board has been particularly strict with bus cancellations this season and may decide that this event does not meet their threshold without a snowfall warning. In Eastern Ontario, snowfall may not begin until later in the morning, meaning boards would need to be proactive based on forecast conditions rather than what is occurring at decision time. Regions that historically tend to act more cautiously have been placed into this 50% category.

A wider group of regions has been assigned a slight chance, around 25%. This includes the Bruce Peninsula under the Bluewater District School Board, the Simcoe North weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board, North Kawartha Lakes under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, the remaining Tri-Board regions, the Upper Canada District School Board, and the remainder of the Renfrew County District School Board. These areas sit just outside the zone of heaviest snowfall during the school day, making it questionable whether conditions will deteriorate enough to prompt cancellations.

For Ottawa, we have gone with a 10 percent chance. While some snow is expected, this system is not currently forecast to be intense enough to meet the higher threshold typically required for cancellations in a large urban school board. We have also extended a very low to low chance into parts of the Golden Horseshoe, particularly rural sections that could see a brief risk of freezing rain during the afternoon. If Environment Canada issues an alert for freezing rain by Tuesday morning, probabilities would increase, but confidence is not high enough at this point to go beyond a low chance.

No school bus cancellations are expected across Deep Southwestern Ontario or the urban school boards of the Greater Toronto Area. Snowfall in these regions will be minimal, and some areas may even climb above the freezing mark during the day on Tuesday, further reducing the likelihood of travel disruptions.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Snowy Blast Could Bring 10-20cm of Fresh Snow to a Wide Swath of Southern Ontario on Tuesday

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

The month of February has certainly been a lot quieter on the snow front across Southern Ontario compared to what many experienced during January. That stretch featured relentless lake effect squalls and several high-impact winter storms that seemed to roll through one after another. In contrast, February has so far offered more breaks between systems, even though we’ve still spent plenty of time locked in the deep freeze.

While temperatures have slipped well below seasonal levels again, the good news is that this cold snap is not expected to last. A gradual warming trend is forecast to take hold as we head into the middle of this week, with temperatures slowly climbing back toward seasonal norms as early as Tuesday.

However, that return to more seasonable temperatures comes with a trade-off. As we moderate, Southern Ontario will once again find itself squarely within the active storm track. And that pattern shift looks set to make itself known very quickly, as we continue to monitor a potentially widespread snow maker expected to impact the region on Tuesday.

A developing system is forecast to slide across Southern Ontario beginning overnight Monday and continuing through much of the day on Tuesday. Current guidance suggests this system has the potential to produce a broad swath of accumulating snow, particularly across Central and Eastern Ontario.

At this point, the highest confidence area for significant snowfall lies across Central and Eastern Ontario, where widespread accumulations of 10 to 20cm appear increasingly likely. While details are still being refined, confidence is growing that this will be a high-impact event for travel.

Given the timing, this system is expected to cause issues during both the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Snow is likely to be ongoing during the morning rush, with roads becoming increasingly snow covered as the day progresses. Conditions may briefly improve in some western areas by late afternoon, but parts of Eastern Ontario could be dealing with their worst conditions right as the evening commute begins.

In addition to snow, there is also a concern for mixed precipitation in parts of Southwestern Ontario and the western GTA. Some guidance continues to show a risk for freezing drizzle or freezing rain developing late Tuesday morning into the early afternoon, particularly along the London, Kitchener, Guelph and Hamilton corridor.

PRECIP TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The system itself is expected to begin spreading into Southern Ontario from the northwest shortly after midnight Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The first areas to see snow will likely be Grey Bruce, Parry Sound, Simcoe County and Muskoka, with coverage expanding steadily southeastward through the pre-dawn hours.

By early Tuesday morning, snow should be fairly widespread across Central Ontario, with conditions continuing to deteriorate as snowfall rates increase.

Hourly snowfall rates (cm) - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As we move into the mid-morning hours, snow is expected to expand into the Highway 401 corridor east of Toronto, stretching toward Belleville, Kingston and beyond.

The heaviest pocket of snow during the morning hours is expected across parts of Central Ontario and areas surrounding Lake Simcoe. In these regions, snowfall rates could reach 2 to 3cm per hour at times. Combined with gusty winds, blowing snow and localized whiteout conditions are possible, which could make travel extremely difficult.

With those conditions developing during the morning hours, school bus cancellations are a strong possibility across parts of Central Ontario, particularly where the heaviest snow bands set up.

PRECIP TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

By the late morning hours, steady snow is expected to overspread much of Eastern Ontario, including Kingston and extending northward into the Ottawa Valley. Snowfall rates are expected to gradually increase through the afternoon as the system strengthens while pushing east.

At the same time, we continue to monitor the risk of mixed precipitation further west. Some models are indicating a narrow zone where warmer air aloft could allow freezing rain, freezing drizzle or even ice pellets to briefly mix in with the snow. The highest risk for this appears to be from London through Kitchener, Guelph and Hamilton, though it may extend north toward Barrie and east into York Region and parts of Toronto.

Confidence remains low on how much icing will occur and for how long. Most indications suggest this risk would be brief and taper off by early afternoon as the system continues east. Even so, any freezing rain could lead to icy road conditions, especially on untreated rural roads and side streets.

Hourly snowfall rates (cm) - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As we move into the afternoon, snow is expected to taper off from west to east across much of Southern Ontario. However, conditions may actually worsen further east as the system intensifies while moving into Eastern Ontario.

Some model data shows the potential for rapid intensification of snow bands across Eastern Ontario during the mid to late afternoon. In these scenarios, snowfall rates could briefly approach 4 to 5cm per hour for an hour or two. If that materializes, snow could pile up very quickly and lead to snow-covered roads just as the evening commute gets underway.

This raises concern for a particularly difficult evening commute through Kingston, Brockville and much of the Ottawa Valley, where travel conditions could deteriorate rapidly in a short period of time.

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

When it comes to snowfall totals, this is shaping up to be one of those systems where there is fairly strong agreement across the models.

Most of Central and Eastern Ontario, extending into Northeastern Ontario, can expect general snowfall totals in the 10 to 15cm range by the time snow winds down Tuesday evening. This includes areas such as Ottawa, Cornwall, Brockville, Smiths Falls, Renfrew, Bancroft, Bracebridge, Huntsville, Algonquin Park, Parry Sound, North Bay, Sudbury and Elliot Lake.

We have opted to use a slightly broader forecast range of 10 to 20cm to account for the potential that the system overperforms in some areas. A few models continue to suggest totals creeping above 15cm in parts of Eastern Ontario, which would push localized amounts closer to the upper end of that range.

There is also a low but non-zero risk that isolated pockets could approach 25cm, particularly if intense snowfall rates linger over the same area for an extended period of time in Eastern Ontario. At this stage, totals above 20cm remain questionable and are not the most likely outcome.

Further south, snowfall totals are expected to be lower. These areas will likely sit south of the strongest precipitation bands, and temperatures closer to the freezing mark will also work against higher accumulations.

A zone stretching from the Bruce Peninsula through Owen Sound, Collingwood, Midland, Barrie, Orillia, Peterborough, Oshawa, Belleville and Kingston is expected to see around 5 to 10cm of new snow. There is a chance that the northern edge of this zone, particularly near Orillia and Peterborough, could see localized totals closer to 15cm if heavier bands shift slightly south.

Southern Grey Bruce, Kitchener, Guelph and parts of the western GTA are expected to see less than 5cm of snow overall. However, these areas carry the highest risk for freezing rain, with up to 2mm of ice accretion possible during the late morning period.

Deep Southwestern Ontario, including London and extending into the Niagara region, is expected to see little to no snow from this system. Temperatures here may briefly rise above the freezing mark on Tuesday, making regular rain the most likely precipitation type for much of the event.

We will continue to refine the forecast as higher resolution guidance comes into range, especially with regards to the freezing rain risk and the potential for intense snowfall rates in Eastern Ontario. Stay tuned for updates as we get closer to Tuesday.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow/Cold Day’ Forecast for Monday, February 9, 2026

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

While no precipitation is expected across Southern Ontario on Monday, there is still a slight chance of school bus cancellations tied to extreme cold in some parts of the region.

The coldest conditions are expected to be found across portions of Central and Eastern Ontario, where overnight lows combined with wind chills could make it feel near -40°C. Actual air temperatures in these areas may dip into the -25 to -30°C range by Monday morning. This places temperatures very close to the threshold that typically prompts cold-related bus cancellations.

That said, confidence is not particularly high. Some forecast guidance keeps temperatures just warm enough to stay below that cancellation threshold, while other models suggest a slightly colder outcome. With cold events like this, even a difference of a couple of degrees can make a big difference when it comes to school board decisions.

Because of this uncertainty, we have assigned a 25 percent chance of cold-related bus cancellations to Muskoka and Haliburton under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Parry Sound and East Parry Sound within the Near North District School Board, North Hastings, North Lennox and Addington, and North and Central Frontenac under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, as well as the Madawaska region within the Renfrew County District School Board. If any cold day cancellations are announced on Monday, they are most likely to occur within this group of school boards.

Outside of these areas, the probability drops off quickly. We have extended a low to very low chance into parts of rural Southwestern Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe. While temperatures here are not expected to reach cold-day thresholds, it cannot be completely ruled out if overnight lows end up a few degrees colder than forecast, particularly in more exposed rural areas.

For the remainder of Southern Ontario, school bus cancellations are not expected on Monday. Conditions elsewhere should remain cold but manageable, staying below the level that would typically lead to widespread cold-related disruptions.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations and Closures for Friday, February 6, 2026

/

**Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update**

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

  • Green = No Cancellations

  • Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)

  • Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

  • Avon MaitIand Public & Huron-Perth CathoIic: There are several closures/cancellations, please visit this link for more details: https://hpsts.mybusplanner.ca/Alerts

  • BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: All busses are cancelled.

  • Lambton Kent Public & St. CIair Catholic: Busses in all zones are cancelled.

  • Renfrew County Public & Renfrew County Catholic: Busses are cancelled for Zone 4 Madawaska.

  • Thames Valley Public & London CathoIic: School purpose vehicles are cancelled in Middlesex, Oxford, Elgin Counties, and Red Zone.

French Schools

  • Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: Busses are cancelled in Oxford, Middlesex, Lambton, and Chatham-Kent.

  • Conseil scolaire Viamonde: Busses are cancelled in Oxford, Middlesex, Lambton, and Chatham-Kent.

Blowing Snow and Near-Blizzard Conditions Could Threaten Friday Evening Commute Across Southern Ontario

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

This week has mostly offered a much-needed reprieve from what felt like an endless onslaught of snow that dominated much of January. For many across Southern Ontario, it finally felt like winter eased up a little. Aside from an Alberta Clipper earlier this week, snowfall became lighter and more scattered, and we even managed to climb out of the deep freeze over the past few days, with temperatures returning closer to seasonal norms for early February.

That quieter stretch is now coming to an end as we head into the weekend. A fast-moving but potent weather system is set to cross the region on Friday, bringing a quick blast of heavy snow, strong winds, and sharply falling temperatures. While this will not be a long-duration storm, its timing and intensity could still cause significant disruption.

The main feature to watch will be a cold front sweeping across Ontario on Friday afternoon and evening. Along the leading edge of this front, a frontal squall is expected to develop. This type of setup is known for producing intense snowfall over a very short period of time, often accompanied by rapidly worsening visibility.

As this squall moves through, whiteout conditions are likely to develop with little warning. Snowfall rates could become very heavy for one to two hours in many areas, which is more than enough time for roads to become snow-covered and slippery before plows are able to respond.

Wind will be another major factor with this system. In the wake of the cold front, wind gusts are expected to ramp up quickly. Many areas could see gusts exceeding 70 km/h, with even stronger gusts possible in some locations. This combination of fresh snow and strong winds will lead to widespread blowing snow and significantly reduced visibility.

Unfortunately, the worst of these conditions is expected to line up with the afternoon and early evening commute across much of Southwestern and Central Ontario. Travel conditions could deteriorate rapidly during this window, especially on highways and open rural roads where blowing snow tends to be more severe.

Snowfall totals from this system are not expected to be extreme by winter standards. Most areas are generally looking at around 5 to 10 cm of snow, with locally higher amounts possible. Areas near Lake Huron could see totals exceed 10 cm due to minor lake enhancement adding to the frontal snow.

The bigger concern is not how much snow falls, but how quickly it falls. With most of the accumulation occurring in a narrow one to two-hour window, roads can become snow-covered very quickly. This rapid accumulation often leads to poor driving conditions even when overall totals are modest.

Hourly snowfall rates (cm) - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Snow is expected to begin spreading into Southwestern and Central Ontario during the mid-morning hours on Friday. At this point, winds should still be relatively light. Snowfall rates during the morning should generally remain below 1 cm per hour, which means conditions should stay manageable for the early part of the day.

This initial area of light snow will gradually expand eastward through the late morning and early afternoon, reaching Eastern Ontario as the day goes on. Travel impacts during this phase are expected to be limited, though roads may start to become slick in spots.

PRECIP TYPE - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

By mid to late afternoon, attention turns to the arrival of the sharp cold front. This front will have three main impacts on the region, with the first being the intense frontal squall along its leading edge.

The squall is expected to begin moving into parts of Northern Ontario and the Lake Huron region sometime between 2 and 4 PM. From there, it will push steadily southeastward through the afternoon.

The Muskoka to London corridor is likely to see the squall move through between roughly 4 and 6 PM. During this time, snowfall rates could become very heavy, and visibility may drop to near zero for brief periods.

As the squall continues southeast, it is expected to reach the Greater Toronto Area around the dinner hour. While it may weaken somewhat by this point, a burst of heavy snow and gusty winds is still possible.

By the early evening, the squall should be pushing into Eastern Ontario, reaching areas such as Kingston and Ottawa sometime around 9 to 10 PM. Even though it will be later in the day, conditions could still become hazardous for a time as it moves through.

Whiteout conditions may occur with little warning wherever the squall passes. These conditions could last for an hour or two in any given location, making travel very difficult during that brief window.

WIND GUST - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The second major concern with this system will be the strong winds developing behind the cold front. Wind gusts are expected to be strongest near Lake Huron, where some models are indicating gusts approaching 80 km/h from Goderich through Grand Bend and into London.

In this area, localized blizzard conditions are possible from the late afternoon into the evening hours. Environment Canada has mentioned that a blizzard warning may be required for parts of this region, though there remains some uncertainty regarding how long the strongest winds will last.

Even outside of the Lake Huron shoreline, many areas could see wind gusts between 50 and 70 km/h. These winds will be more than enough to cause blowing snow, especially with freshly fallen snow being easily lofted off the ground.

Blowing snow is likely to continue into the evening even after snowfall tapers off, prolonging travel impacts and keeping visibility reduced for several hours.

WIND GUST - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Another aspect being closely monitored is the potential for very strong wind gusts along higher elevations north of the Greater Toronto Area. Some models suggest a corridor of stronger winds following the Oak Ridges Moraine, extending from Durham Region through York Region and into parts of Peel Region.

In these areas, wind gusts could approach or even exceed 90 km/h. If this scenario materializes, there could be an increased risk of power outages and localized damage, especially in exposed areas.

Hourly snowfall rates (cm) - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Behind the cold front, lake effect snow is expected to develop along the Lake Huron shoreline Friday evening and continue overnight. The exact intensity of this lake effect snow remains somewhat uncertain.

A significant portion of Lake Huron is currently covered in ice, which can limit how much moisture the lake can supply. This may prevent the lake effect from becoming as intense as it otherwise could be.

However, the very strong winds will play a major role in impacts regardless of snowfall intensity. Wind gusts exceeding 70 km/h will likely lead to near blizzard conditions along the shoreline, with blowing snow continuing through the evening and into the overnight hours.

WIND CHILL - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The third and perhaps most noticeable impact of this cold front will be the sudden return to bitterly cold temperatures. This drop in temperature will be sharp and abrupt, not gradual.

By Saturday morning, widespread wind chills are expected to make it feel well into the -30s across much of Southern Ontario. Some areas could even approach wind chills near -40°C.

Actual air temperatures are expected to range from -25°C to -30°C across most regions. Deep Southwestern Ontario, including areas closer to Lake Erie, may stay a bit milder, closer to -20°C.

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

As mentioned, snowfall totals from this event are not expected to be overly impressive on their own and would be considered fairly typical for this time of year. The real story will be the wind, the rapid snowfall rates, and the extreme cold that follows.

The highest snowfall totals are expected along the Lake Huron shoreline from Kincardine down through Grand Bend. In these areas, 5 to 10 cm from the frontal squall combined with locally 10 to 15 cm from lake effect snow could result in overall totals between 10 and 20 cm.

Elsewhere across Southwestern Ontario, excluding Deep Southwestern Ontario, as well as Central and Eastern Ontario, a general 5 to 10 cm of snow is expected. Localized pockets could approach 15 cm if the squall slows down or briefly stalls over an area.

For Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Sarnia and Windsor, along with the western portions of the GTA and the Niagara region, snowfall totals are expected to be lower. Around 2 to 5 cm is likely in these areas as the frontal squall weakens and becomes less organized.

Even in areas with lower snowfall totals, conditions could still become hazardous for a time due to strong winds, blowing snow, and rapidly falling temperatures as winter reminds us it is far from finished.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Blast of Heavy Snow on Friday Afternoon May Lead to School Bus Cancellations in Parts of Southern Ontario

/

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/2/6/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

A messy weather setup is expected across Southern Ontario on Friday, as a burst of heavy snow moves into the region later in the day. Strong winds combined with falling snow are expected to create areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility, particularly through the afternoon and early evening hours. This has prompted Environment Canada to issue a widespread blowing snow advisory across much of Southwestern Ontario.

When it comes to impacts on school transportation, however, the situation is less straightforward. The worst conditions are expected to develop after the school day is already underway, with the most hazardous travel lining up closer to the afternoon commute rather than the morning bus run.

There may be some light snow around during the morning hours, but at this point, it does not appear to be enough on its own to meet the threshold that typically leads to school bus cancellations. Because of this timing, school boards would need to be proactive and factor in rapidly deteriorating conditions later in the day, rather than what is occurring at decision time in the early morning.

Given the blowing snow advisory from Environment Canada and the potential for travel conditions to worsen quickly while buses are on the roads in the afternoon, we have gone with a 50 percent chance for school bus cancellations for regions covered by the Bluewater District School Board, the Avon Maitland District School Board, and Middlesex County under the Thames Valley District School Board. This is very much a borderline scenario and could genuinely go either way. If this system were arriving a few hours earlier, confidence in cancellations would be much higher.

A second tier of regions carries a slight chance, around 25 percent, for a snow day on Friday. This includes areas covered by the Greater Essex County District School Board, the Lambton Kent District School Board, Elgin and Oxford counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board, the Near North District School Board, and the Rainbow District School Board. These areas are more rural in nature and are likely to see snow begin during or just ahead of the afternoon bus run. While most of these regions are expected to operate normally, a few localized decisions to cancel buses cannot be ruled out.

Outside of these zones, probabilities drop off further. We have assigned a widespread low to very low chance across rural school boards around the Golden Horseshoe and extending into parts of Central and Eastern Ontario. In these areas, the bulk of the snow is expected to arrive closer to the dinner hour, which greatly reduces the likelihood of school boards cancelling buses earlier in the day.

That said, if Environment Canada expands blowing snow advisories farther east or begins highlighting particularly poor travel conditions during the afternoon commute, some of the more weather-sensitive school boards could opt to cancel buses as a precaution.

For the more urban school boards, including those across the Greater Toronto Area and the Ottawa region, we are not expecting any school bus cancellations on Friday. Conditions in these areas are not forecast to come anywhere near the threshold that typically prompts cancellations, and travel should remain manageable through the school day.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Thursday, February 5, 2026

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

No impactful winter weather is expected across Southern Ontario throughout the day on Thursday.

As a result, all regions have a less than 5 percent chance of school bus cancellations.

It’s shaping up to be a quiet and routine school day, so… do your homework!

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Wednesday, February 4, 2026

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

No impactful winter weather is expected across Southern Ontario throughout the day on Wednesday.

As a result, all regions have a less than 5 percent chance of school bus cancellations.

It’s shaping up to be a quiet and routine school day, so… do your homework!

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Tuesday, February 3, 2026

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Periods of light snow are expected tonight into Tuesday across Southern Ontario.

Snowfall amounts are expected to remain fairly minor, with most areas picking up less than 5 cm by the time the snow tapers off late Tuesday. Because of this, conditions are not expected to deteriorate enough to reach the threshold that typically leads to school bus cancellations.

That said, there is a very small window for isolated impacts in a few regions near the lakes. We have assigned a very low chance to areas covered by the Bluewater District School Board, the Avon Maitland District School Board and the Near North District School Board. In these regions, snow is expected to be heaviest close to the time when school boards are making their morning decisions.

In addition, slightly stronger winds near the Lake Huron and Georgian Bay shorelines could lead to some localized blowing snow, briefly reducing visibility on exposed rural routes. Even so, snowfall rates and overall accumulation should remain limited, making cancellations unlikely.

Because of these marginal factors, we have gone with a 5 percent chance for these regions. This is very much a “don’t count on it” scenario, and the expectation remains that buses will run as normal.

Everywhere else across Southern Ontario is not expected to see any chance of a snow day on Tuesday. Snowfall should be light, roads should remain manageable, and no significant travel disruptions are anticipated.

So despite a bit of light snow in the forecast, Tuesday is shaping up to be a routine school day across the province. In other words, homework is still on the schedule!

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Monday, February 2, 2026

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

No major winter weather is expected throughout Monday that could disrupt school buses across Southern Ontario.

While there are cold temperatures expected in some areas, it’s unlikely to reach the threshold for cancellations.

All areas should do their homework tonight!

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow/Cold Day’ Forecast: Wind Chills Near -40°C Could Cancel Some School Buses Across Southern Ontario on Friday

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

While snow squall activity around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay has underperformed so far on Thursday, allowing for fewer school bus cancellations than initially expected, the snow squall threat is not over just yet. Additional lake effect activity is expected to persist overnight and into Friday morning, keeping the door open for further disruptions.

On top of that, a surge of Arctic air will settle across Southern Ontario overnight. Temperatures in some areas are expected to fall toward -30°C, with wind chills making it feel closer to -40°C by Friday morning. That combination of lingering snow squalls and extreme cold could be enough to prompt at least some school boards to keep buses off the roads on Friday.

It’s also worth noting that many school boards have a PA Day scheduled for Friday. If that applies to your region, consider it a guaranteed cold day and enjoy sleeping through the worst of the wind chills. However, for the purpose of this forecast, we are treating Friday as a normal school day across all boards, as PA Day schedules vary and not every board follows the same calendar.

For school boards that are operating, our strongest confidence for bus cancellations is focused along the Lake Huron snowbelt. This includes Kincardine and Meaford within the Bluewater District School Board, along with northern Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board.

These areas are most likely to see renewed snow squall activity overnight if the bands are able to organize. However, given the inconsistent model performance with this lake effect setup, confidence is not high enough to place these regions in the highest category. As a result, we have kept them below the 90 percent threshold.

For the remainder of the Bluewater District School Board, excluding the Bruce Peninsula, as well as the rest of the Avon Maitland District School Board and the Simcoe West weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board, we have assigned a 50 percent chance. In these areas, the risk comes from a combination of scattered snow squall impacts and the potential for extreme cold near cancellation thresholds.

A broad swath of Central and Eastern Ontario has also been placed in the 50 percent category due primarily to the cold. Typically, air temperatures near minus 30 degrees or wind chills approaching minus 40 are required before most school boards consider cancelling buses due to cold alone.

Current forecasts suggest many areas may come within just a few degrees of those thresholds, but could fall just short. Because of that uncertainty and the tendency for models to occasionally underestimate cold air outbreaks, we’ve gone with a 50 percent chance that could swing either way.

This 50 percent zone includes all regions covered by the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Parry Sound and East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board, Peterborough and Northumberland counties under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, the northern sections of Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, and the Madawaska region under the Renfrew County District School Board. This also extends into higher elevation areas of Southwestern Ontario, including Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board.

For a slight chance of bus cancellations, we have included the remainder of the Renfrew County District School Board, the Upper Canada District School Board, the southern sections of Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, Clarington under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, northern Durham Region, the remaining Simcoe County District School Board weather zones, Guelph under the Upper Grand District School Board, the Waterloo Region District School Board, and Oxford and Middlesex counties under the Thames Valley District School Board.

These areas are either more urban in nature or are expected to see slightly warmer temperatures, which should keep them below cold day thresholds. However, if temperatures end up just a few degrees colder than forecast, a handful of surprise cancellations would not be out of the question.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, including the more urban school boards across the Golden Horseshoe and into Deep Southwestern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations remains low. While it will be cold, temperatures and wind chills are not expected to reach the levels typically required for widespread cold-related cancellations in these areas.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations and Closures for Thursday, January 29, 2026

/

**Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update**

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

  • Green = No Cancellations

  • Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)

  • Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

  • Avon MaitIand Public & Huron-Perth CathoIic: There are multiple cancellations, please visit this link for more details: https://hpsts.mybusplanner.ca/Alerts

French Schools

  • Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: Busses are cancelled in Middlesex (Huron)

  • Conseil scolaire Viamonde: Busses are cancelled in Middlesex (Huron)

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Some Students in Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt Could See Another Day of Bus Cancellations on Thursday

/

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/29/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

The story of the past few weeks across Southern Ontario has been relentless snow squall activity, leaving some communities with only a handful of actual school days during that stretch. Unfortunately for those hoping for a break, that pattern shows no real signs of ending just yet. Additional snow squall activity is expected to linger into Thursday, raising the likelihood of yet another snow day for parts of the region.

While this round of snow squalls is not expected to be as widespread as what we have seen over the last few days, regions east of Lake Huron will continue to deal with difficult travel conditions. Persistent bursts of snow, blowing snow, and reduced visibility are expected to remain an issue, particularly in areas that have already been repeatedly impacted and are still struggling to fully dig out.

Our highest confidence for school bus cancellations on Thursday is centred on Bruce County within the Bluewater District School Board. This includes Kincardine, Southampton and the Bruce Peninsula. These areas sit squarely within the core snowbelt and are expected to continue seeing treacherous conditions into Thursday. With many rural routes still snow-covered and additional squalls possible, we have given this region a 90 percent chance of a snow day.

Surrounding areas also carry a strong likelihood of cancellations, though confidence is slightly lower than in the core snowbelt. North Huron County, under the Avon Maitland District School Board, along with Owen Sound and Meaford within the Bluewater District School Board, have been assigned a 75 percent chance. Conditions in these areas are likely to be poor enough to justify cancellations, but there is more uncertainty given that the most persistent squall activity may remain closer to the Lake Huron shoreline north of Kincardine.

In our toss-up category, where conditions could genuinely go either way, we have included southern Huron County and northern Perth County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Hanover within the Bluewater District School Board, and the Simcoe West weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board. These regions have been given a 50 percent chance, as outcomes will depend heavily on how far inland and how far south the snow squall bands are able to stretch during the morning and early afternoon.

Farther away from the core snowbelt, probabilities drop off further. We have assigned a 25 percent chance to southern Perth County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board, and the Simcoe Central and Simcoe North weather zones. Snow squalls may occasionally brush these areas through Thursday, with Simcoe County being the most likely to see brief impacts. However, given the Simcoe County District School Board’s track record of maintaining a high threshold for cancellations and often running buses despite active alerts, we are leaning toward buses operating in most of these areas.

We have also assigned a 25 percent chance to Prince Edward County under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. This region has seen substantial snowfall over the past several days from repeated snow squall activity. While the squalls themselves are expected to taper off by Thursday morning, backroads may still be in rough shape, which keeps the door open for potential cancellations.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, the chance of a snow day on Thursday remains low. Most regions outside of the Lake Huron snowbelt are not expected to see significant impacts from this round of squalls, and conditions should be manageable enough for school buses to operate as normal.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations and Closures for Wednesday, January 28, 2026

/

**Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update**

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

  • Green = No Cancellations

  • Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)

  • Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

  • BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: All busses are cancelled EXCEPT for Zone 7 (Teeswater, Lucknow, Ripley)

  • Near North Public & Nipissing-Parry Sound CathoIic: All School busses in West Parry Sound ( Britt/Nobel - Mcdougall/Whitestone/Ahmic Harbour - Town of Parry Sound - Mactier/Humphrey/Rosseau) are cancelled

  • Simcoe County Public & Simcoe Catholic: Busses are cancelled in the North Zone.

  • Tri-Board: Transportation is cancelled in the Prince Edward County weather zone.

French Schools

  • Conseil catholique MonAvenir: Busses are cancelled for some schools in Simcoe

  • Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: Busses are cancelled in Simcoe North and Bruce-Grey

  • Conseil scolaire Viamonde: Busses are cancelled in Simcoe North and Bruce-Grey

  • Le Conseil scolaire public du Nord-Est de l’Ontario (CSPNE) & Conseil scolaire catholique Franco-Nord: All School busses in West Parry Sound ( Britt/Nobel - Mcdougall/Whitestone/Ahmic Harbour - Town of Parry Sound - Mactier/Humphrey/Rosseau) are cancelled

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Another Likely Day of School Bus Cancellations in Parts of Southern Ontario on Wednesday

/

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/28/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Widespread snow squall activity has developed off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay through the day on Tuesday and shows no signs of letting up as we head into the overnight hours and into Wednesday. These squalls are producing bursts of heavy snow, significantly reduced visibility and areas of blowing snow, creating very hazardous travel conditions in the snowbelt.

Localized snowfall totals of up to 20 to 30 cm are possible in the most persistent bands by Wednesday. With snow continuing to fall and winds remaining gusty, it is almost certain that school buses will be unable to operate safely in the hardest hit regions on Wednesday.

Our highest confidence for a snow day remains focused on areas east of Lake Huron, where the most intense and long-lasting squalls are expected. This includes all regions covered by the Bluewater District School Board, along with Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board. These areas sit directly within the core of the snowbelt and feature a high number of rural routes that are especially vulnerable to drifting and whiteout conditions. As a result, we have assigned these regions a 90 percent chance of school bus cancellations on Wednesday.

A strong likelihood tier follows closely behind, with a 75 percent chance of cancellations for Perth County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Dufferin County within the Upper Grand District School Board, and the Simcoe West and Simcoe North weather zones under the Simcoe County District School Board. While these areas are expected to see snow squall impacts, they sit slightly farther from the most intense activity. In the case of Simcoe County, the school board has shown a higher threshold for cancellations this season and has run buses in similar conditions before, which keeps confidence slightly lower despite the expectation of poor travel conditions.

In the toss-up category, where outcomes could genuinely go either way, we have included the Simcoe Central weather zone, Wellington County under the Upper Grand District School Board, and South Muskoka within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board. These regions are currently under snow squall warnings, but confidence is lower on how severe conditions will be during the morning bus run. Depending on how quickly squalls weaken or shift overnight, some of these areas may attempt to run buses despite the active alerts.

We have also placed Prince Edward County under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services in the 50 percent category. This region has been impacted by snow squalls earlier today, and while snowfall has tapered off, road conditions may remain questionable into Wednesday morning, especially on secondary and rural routes.

Outside of the core snowbelt, probabilities drop off more quickly. A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to Middlesex and Oxford counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, the Simcoe South weather zone, Georgina within the York Region District School Board, North Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, the Parry Sound region under the Near North District School Board, and Belleville along with South Lennox and Addington under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. Most of these areas are not expected to see significant snowfall, but localized blowing snow or lingering poor road conditions could still allow for a few surprise cancellations.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, including the Golden Horseshoe, Deep Southwestern Ontario and much of Eastern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Wednesday remains low. These regions are expected to see minimal impacts from the lake effect activity, with conditions remaining manageable enough for buses to operate as normal.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations and Closures for Tuesday, January 27, 2026

/

**Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update**

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

  • Green = No Cancellations

  • Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)

  • Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

  • Avon MaitIand Public & Huron-Perth CathoIic: There are several closures/cancellations, please visit this link for more details: https://hpsts.mybusplanner.ca/Alerts

  • BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: All busses are cancelled.

  • Grand Erie Public & Brant HaIdimand Norfolk Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.

  • Dufferin-PeeI Catholic: Buses to St. Andrew, St. Peter, St. Benedict, and Robert F. Hall C.S.S. are cancelled

  • Greater Essex Public & Windsor Essex CathoIic: All Board Provided Transportation is Cancelled for the County of Essex

  • Near North Public & Nipissing-Parry Sound CathoIic: School Bussing is cancelled in the Weather Zones of West Parry Sound and East Parry Sound South

  • Thames Valley Public & London CathoIic: Busses are cancelled in Middlesex, Oxford, and Elgin Counties and Red Zone.

  • Tri-Board: Transportation is cancelled in the Prince Edward County weather zone

  • Upper Grand Public & Wellington CathoIic: All school taxis and buses in Division 3 (North Wellington) and Division 4 (Dufferin County) will not be operating

French Schools

  • Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: Busses are cancelled in Essex, Oxford, Middlesex, and Bruce-Grey

  • Conseil scolaire Viamonde: Busses are cancelled in Oxford, Middlesex, and Bruce-Grey

  • Le Conseil scolaire public du Nord-Est de l’Ontario (CSPNE) & Conseil scolaire catholique Franco-Nord: School Bussing is cancelled in the Weather Zones of West Parry Sound and East Parry Sound South

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Chance of School Bus Cancellations Return to Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt on Tuesday With Snow Squall Risk

/

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/27/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

After a disruptive snowstorm delivered Toronto’s largest single-day snowfall on record on Sunday, students across much of the Golden Horseshoe and Eastern Ontario saw widespread school bus cancellations and even school closures on Monday. But for communities closer to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, it marked a return to normal, with students finally heading back to school after being off for much of the previous week in some areas.

Now that the main storm system has moved out of the region, attention turns back to lake effect snow. Snow squall activity is expected to redevelop across Southern Ontario’s snowbelt, bringing with it the renewed potential for school bus cancellations on Tuesday.

Localized snow squalls are forecast to develop tonight across the Bruce Peninsula and then extend northeast of Georgian Bay into the Parry Sound region through Tuesday morning. As the day progresses, these squalls are expected to gradually shift south of the region, but not before producing periods of heavy snow and poor visibility during the morning hours.

With snow squall warnings in place from Environment Canada, highlighting the risk of significant snowfall and reduced visibility, there is a strong chance that some of the hardest hit regions will experience another snow day on Tuesday.

Our highest confidence is in the Parry Sound region under the Near North District School Board. This area is expected to see the most intense and persistent snow squall activity through the morning, making bus travel unsafe. As a result, we have assigned Parry Sound a 90 percent chance of school bus cancellations.

A strong likelihood follows closely behind, with a 75 percent chance assigned to the Bruce Peninsula within the Bluewater District School Board and East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board. While the Bruce Peninsula is expected to see treacherous conditions, Bluewater has already experienced a high number of cancellations this season. Because of that, there remains a slight chance they may attempt to run buses if conditions are marginal early in the morning, keeping this region just below the highest tier.

Along the Lake Huron shoreline, including the remainder of Bruce County and extending into North Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, we have assigned a 50 percent chance. Snowfall totals here are not expected to be extreme, but strong wind gusts of 50 to 60 km/h could lead to areas of blowing snow and rapidly changing visibility. These conditions could go either way depending on how exposed routes are early Tuesday morning.

Farther inland, confidence drops off. Perth County, under the Avon Maitland District School Board, and all of Grey County within the Bluewater District School Board have been given a 25 percent chance. Winds are expected to weaken farther from the lakes, and snowfall intensity should be lower, making cancellations less likely but not impossible.

East of Georgian Bay, North Muskoka, under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, has been placed in the 50 percent category, as it currently sits under a snow squall warning. That said, TLDSB has a history of holding off on cancellations unless conditions are actively poor during the morning bus run, even when warnings are in effect. Because of that, confidence remains split. South Muskoka under TLDSB and North Bay within the Near North District School Board have been assigned a lower 25 percent chance.

Farther east, lake effect activity may also impact Northumberland County into the Belleville and Picton area. Environment Canada has issued a snow squall watch for this region from Tuesday morning into the evening. Because of that, we have given Belleville and Prince Edward County under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services a 50 percent chance of bus cancellations.

A 25 percent chance has also been assigned to Northumberland County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, as well as Central Hastings, Central Lennox and Addington, and South Frontenac under Tri-Board. While it remains questionable whether conditions will be severe enough to prompt cancellations in these areas, these school boards tend to be more proactive when Environment Canada alerts are in place, which keeps the door open for possible decisions.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, the chance of a snow day on Tuesday is low to very low. Some regions that were hit hard by Sunday’s historic snowfall could still see lingering cleanup issues, but widespread cancellations for that reason appear unlikely.

In fact, the Toronto District School Board has already confirmed that schools will be open on Tuesday, despite Toronto being the hardest hit area from Sunday’s storm. With that in mind, it becomes increasingly questionable that other regions would cancel solely due to cleanup concerns if Toronto is able to reopen.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.