January 04, 2026

Quick Blast of Heavy Snow May Impact the Morning Commute in Southern Ontario With Up to 15cm of Snow on Monday

January 04, 2026/ Brennen Perry

***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE***

It has certainly been a busy start to 2026 across parts of Southern Ontario, especially in the snowbelt regions. Relentless snow squalls over the past week have brought widespread travel disruptions along with staggering snowfall totals, with some areas picking up an incredible 50 to 100cm of snow in a relatively short period of time.

While we managed to catch a bit of a break through the weekend, that quieter stretch will be short-lived. The first full week of the new year is shaping up to be an active one, with several rounds of messy winter weather expected to move through Southern Ontario over the next few days.

The next system arrives early Monday in the form of a fast-moving Alberta clipper. Unfortunately, the timing could not be much worse. With many people heading back to work and school after the holiday break, this system is expected to sweep through during the heart of the Monday morning commute.

Snow is expected to break out across Southwestern Ontario and quickly expand northeastward into Central Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe. While this will not be a major snowfall event by snowbelt standards, the intensity and timing of the snow could still cause notable travel issues.

Snowfall totals are not expected to be extreme, especially compared to what areas east of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay have been dealing with recently.

However, widespread amounts of 8 to 15cm are possible in the hardest hit regions. The key factor here is that much of this snow is expected to fall within just a few hours, which significantly increases its impact compared to a longer duration, lighter snowfall.

This clipper system is expected to move through fairly quickly, with conditions gradually improving by Monday afternoon or early evening. However, the active pattern will not take long to reload.

A second system is already lining up to arrive beginning Tuesday afternoon and continuing into Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty surrounding the exact track of this system, which will ultimately determine who sees snow, ice, or rain.

At this point, areas closer to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario appear most at risk for a period of freezing rain, potentially followed by heavy rain as warmer air pushes northward. Further north into Central and Eastern Ontario, colder air may hold on longer, leading to another round of accumulating snow with totals in the 5 to 15cm range possible.

Looking even further ahead, we are also monitoring two additional systems that could impact Southern Ontario toward the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Early indications suggest much of Southern Ontario may start out on the rain side of the system on Friday. However, colder air could work its way south by Saturday, allowing rain to transition back to snow.

It is far too early to pin down exact impacts, but this system will have access to a large amount of moisture. If colder air arrives sooner or proves more stubborn than currently expected, the risk for significant snowfall or even prolonged freezing rain would increase.

**Hourly snowfall rates (cm)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Turning back to Monday’s clipper, the first bands of snow are expected to enter Southern Ontario from the west overnight into the early morning hours. Snow should develop along the Lake Huron and Georgian Bay shoreline by mid-morning, becoming steady and occasionally heavy.

By late morning, snow will spread eastward into Central Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe. With this occurring during peak commuting hours, expect slower travel and reduced visibility, especially for those who may be easing back into winter driving after the holidays.

Blowing and drifting snow may further reduce visibility, particularly in areas east of Lake Huron where deep snowbanks are already in place. Even moderate winds will be enough to cause drifting in open areas and along rural roadways.

Conditions are expected to deteriorate the most by the late morning hours around Lake Simcoe and into parts of the Greater Toronto Area. During this time, hourly snowfall rates could briefly reach 2 to 3cm, which would qualify as heavy snow. This can quickly overwhelm road crews and lead to rapidly deteriorating road conditions.

As the system continues east, light snow will begin reaching Eastern Ontario while snowfall starts to taper off closer to Lake Huron. Areas along the Lake Erie shoreline and into Deep Southwestern Ontario will largely be spared from the worst of the snow, with the bulk of the moisture tracking north of these regions.

Snowfall intensity will gradually decrease through the early afternoon as the system moves away. Steadier snow will linger across Central and Eastern Ontario, while areas such as Kitchener and the GTA see snow slowly taper off as the system lifts north of Lake Simcoe.

Some lingering light snow could persist into the early evening hours for parts of Eastern Ontario, including areas near Kingston and Brockville, before finally coming to an end.

There is fairly strong agreement among forecast models when it comes to overall snowfall placement. Most guidance supports a swath of 10 to 15cm stretching from Grey-Bruce through Central Ontario, into the northern GTA, Peterborough, and extending eastward toward Kingston. This zone may also extend into parts of southern Northeastern Ontario.

For our forecast map, we have opted to lower the top range slightly to 8 to 15cm rather than a more aggressive 10 to 15cm. This accounts for the possibility of some underperformance near the southern edge of the snow band, especially through parts of Toronto. Clippers are notorious for sharp gradients and occasional dry slots, which could keep totals lower in some locations.

Across the Goderich to Kitchener and Hamilton corridor, snowfall amounts of 5 to 8cm look reasonable. That said, if the system ends up being drier than expected, some locations may struggle to reach the 5cm mark.

Further south into Sarnia, London, and the Niagara Region, amounts should generally stay below 5cm. Windsor and Leamington may see little more than a trace, if any snow at all.

In the Ottawa Valley, northern sections closer to the Quebec border, including Pembroke, Ottawa, and Cornwall, are expected to see around 2 to 5cm. Areas further south, such as Bancroft, Smiths Falls, and Brockville, could pick up closer to 5 to 8cm.

Some recent model runs have hinted at heavier snow pushing a bit further north in Eastern Ontario, so the potential for localized overperformance cannot be ruled out.

Once snow winds down Monday evening, conditions will briefly improve before the next system approaches. Current guidance suggests a messy and complex setup developing Tuesday afternoon and lasting into Wednesday.

Unlike the clipper, this system will involve a stronger battle between warm and cold air. This raises the risk for a band of freezing rain to set up somewhere across Southern Ontario, at least for a few hours.

At this point, it looks like a lower-impact freezing rain scenario where areas transition from freezing rain to plain rain as warmer air moves northward. However, higher resolution models are only just coming into range, and it is possible that the cold air proves more stubborn than currently expected.

As the system exits overnight into Wednesday, a broader area of heavier snow could develop across Northeastern, Central, and Eastern Ontario. Where this snow band ultimately sets up remains uncertain, but snowfall amounts in the 5 to 15cm range are possible.

We will have a much clearer picture of that system once Monday’s clipper moves through and we can assess how the atmosphere responds.

Beyond that, yet another round of unsettled weather is possible toward the end of the week and into the weekend. While heavy rain currently looks like the main concern, colder air arriving sooner could flip the script toward heavy snow. This remains highly preliminary, but it reinforces the message that winter is not easing up anytime soon.

December 31, 2025

Parts of Southern Ontario To Ring In the New Year Buried in Up to 100cm of Additional Snow by Thursday

December 31, 2025/ Brennen Perry

The weather story this week has been dominated by intense snow squalls that have practically paralyzed areas east of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay, and this prolonged event is far from finished.

As of Tuesday evening, many roads across Huron, Perth, Grey, Bruce and Simcoe Counties have been closed due to dangerous whiteout conditions and rapidly accumulating snow. Springwater Township has even issued an emergency alert asking residents to stay off the roads entirely, citing the inability for emergency services to safely respond.

Unfortunately, the situation is expected to continue into the New Year as snow squall activity remains locked in across the region. Additional road closures are possible as squalls continue to drift and redevelop through Grey and Bruce Counties on Wednesday. Blowing snow will remain a major concern, even during brief lulls in snowfall, keeping travel extremely hazardous.

With snow squalls persisting and slowly shifting over the next 48 hours, widespread snowfall totals east of Lake Huron are expected to range from 30 to 60cm by the end of Thursday. We continue to highlight a few high-impact pockets between Owen Sound and Goderich, including areas near Chatsworth, Wingham and Point Clark, where total snowfall could approach or even reach 100cm if the most intense bands remain locked in place.

Simcoe County will also continue to be affected on and off through Wednesday and Thursday. A narrow but intense zone that includes hard-hit Springwater Township, along with Wasaga Beach, Barrie and Angus, could pick up an additional 30 to 60cm of snow. Confidence is slightly lower here compared to Lake Huron, and some locations may underperform if the bands wobble, but significant impacts remain likely.

Late Wednesday into early Thursday morning, attention will also turn to Lake Ontario. A snow squall currently targeting upstate New York may drift northward into portions of Prince Edward County, including Picton. If this materializes, snowfall rates could quickly ramp up, leading to a fast 15 to 30cm of accumulation in just a few hours.

Snow squall activity is expected to continue into Friday, though the pattern begins to evolve. A more westerly flow later Thursday and Friday would favour the Bruce Peninsula, northern Simcoe County and Muskoka for continued lake effect snowfall.

Overnight, snow squall activity is expected to consolidate into two primary bands between Owen Sound and Goderich. Meanwhile, activity off Georgian Bay may briefly weaken overnight, although confidence in that outcome remains low. Radar trends continue to show a very robust squall set up between Orillia and Barrie, and even if it temporarily diminishes, it is expected to redevelop by mid-morning Wednesday.

The southern Lake Huron squall may also stretch farther inland at times, potentially reaching areas like Kitchener and parts of the western GTA, bringing brief but intense bursts of snow and rapidly changing road conditions.

These squalls are expected to persist through Wednesday morning and afternoon. By Wednesday evening, a weak Alberta clipper will move through Southern Ontario, briefly shifting winds and causing lake effect snow to become more scattered for a time.

That same clipper will also cause a wind shift over Lake Ontario, which could push an organized snow squall northward into Belleville, Picton and possibly Kingston. Snowfall rates in this band could reach 4 to 8cm per hour, with total accumulations of 15 to 30cm possible before the squall exits around midnight.

Snow squall activity should reorganize overnight into Thursday morning for regions east of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay as colder air deepens once again.

Based on the latest guidance, the strongest Lake Huron squall on Thursday looks most likely to set up somewhere near Kincardine, Wingham and Listowel, though this position could still shift. At the same time, the Georgian Bay squall is expected to continue hammering the Springwater and Barrie area.

By Thursday afternoon, the focus may shift northward as a multi-lake squall develops, stretching across the Bruce Peninsula, over Georgian Bay and into Midland and Orillia. Additional weaker bands may linger farther south across Huron and Perth Counties, including areas like Goderich and Stratford.

Looking ahead to Thursday night into Friday morning, the Georgian Bay squall may intensify further as winds become more westerly. This would allow the band to push northward into southern Muskoka, where it could lock in for much of the day Friday. A separate forecast focusing on Friday and the weekend will be issued closer to that time.

Before getting into final snowfall totals, it is important to remember that lake effect snow squalls are extremely localized. These narrow bands can produce massive snowfall in one community while areas just a few kilometres away receive very little. Forecast zones are intentionally broad to account for shifting winds and band placement, meaning not everyone within a zone will reach the listed totals.

With that in mind, there is strong model agreement on two primary zones with the highest snowfall potential ranging from 60 to 100cm, with localized amounts possibly exceeding 100cm if the most aggressive solutions verify.

The northern high-impact zone includes Owen Sound and Chatsworth, while the southern high-impact zone includes Point Clark and Wingham.

For the remainder of the eastern Lake Huron shoreline, snowfall totals of 30 to 60cm are expected, though isolated pockets could approach 75cm. Similar totals are possible from Wasaga Beach through Barrie, though totals there are more likely to remain on the lower end of the range.

Farther inland, areas including London, Woodstock, Kitchener, Fergus, Orillia, Innisfil, Keswick and Bradford could see 15 to 30cm. This is more conditional and depends on squalls stretching far enough inland in the right position.

That same 15 to 30cm potential also applies to parts of Prince Edward County, including Picton, where much of that snow could fall in a very short window Wednesday evening.

Surrounding regions extending southeast of London toward the Lake Erie shoreline, into Guelph, the north and eastern GTA, and along the Lake Ontario shoreline into Eastern Ontario could see 5 to 15cm by the end of Thursday. Most areas will likely stay closer to the lower end, though isolated pockets could approach 15cm due to intermittent lake effect bands.

The remainder of Southern Ontario, outside of northern Central and Eastern Ontario, can expect a general 2 to 5cm, mainly associated with the weak clipper system on Wednesday. Farther north, including the Ottawa Valley, less than 2cm is expected.

December 28, 2025

Powerful Wind Storm on Monday to Fuel Blizzard Conditions in Southern Ontario With Up to 25-50 cm of Snow Possible by Tuesday

December 28, 2025/ Brennen Perry

The major winter storm we have been focused on over the past few days has now arrived, bringing hazardous ice storm conditions to parts of Southern Ontario while Northern Ontario continues to deal with heavy snowfall. This system is already creating widespread travel issues and power concerns, and the worst impacts are still unfolding as we head into Monday.

Freezing rain will gradually come to an end by late morning or early afternoon on Monday for most areas as temperatures briefly climb above the freezing mark. While that may offer a short-lived improvement in conditions, it will be followed quickly by another round of dangerous weather as colder Arctic air surges back into the region from the west.

As this colder air pushes in, precipitation will rapidly transition from rain or freezing rain over to snow. This snow will become increasingly enhanced by Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, setting the stage for a prolonged and high-impact snow squall event across much of Southwestern and Central Ontario.

At the same time, a rapidly strengthening low-pressure system will track directly along the lower Great Lakes through early Monday. This setup will drive very strong winds across Southern and Northeastern Ontario, especially near the lakes, with widespread gusts exceeding 90 km/h and locally approaching or exceeding 100 km/h along exposed shorelines.

These powerful winds, when combined with heavy snowfall, will lead to blizzard conditions developing east of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay. Snow squalls will also intensify as the system pulls away, resulting in widespread snowfall totals of 25 to 50 cm across Grey-Bruce, Huron, Perth and Simcoe counties by the end of Tuesday.

The threat of blowing snow and sharply reduced visibility will not be limited to the traditional snowbelt regions. Localized blizzard conditions may extend across much of Southwestern and Central Ontario, including portions of the GTA. Even areas that do not receive significant snowfall could see near-zero visibility at times due to wind gusts in the 70 to 90 km/h range.

Given these conditions, road and highway closures are very likely in the hardest hit areas, especially across the snowbelt. Travel will be extremely hazardous and potentially impossible at times. Non-essential travel should be avoided through Monday and into Tuesday where possible.

Although winds are expected to gradually ease by early Tuesday, snow will continue to pile up east of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay. With very cold temperatures lingering through the remainder of the week, the snow squall risk could persist in some form for several additional days, depending on wind direction.

In the Ottawa Valley, freezing rain should come to an end by late morning on Monday as temperatures briefly rise above freezing. Meanwhile, colder air will already be invading areas closer to Lake Huron, with rain changing over to snow as early as mid-morning.

This transition will allow bands of heavy snow to develop through Southern and Central Ontario. There is also the potential for a frontal snow squall to form along the advancing cold front, producing a narrow but intense burst of snow that could rapidly deteriorate travel conditions.

**MAX WIND GUST (KM/H)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Adding to the severity of this setup will be the strong winds developing by mid-morning on Monday and continuing through the afternoon. Wind gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are possible near the shores of Lake Huron, Georgian Bay, Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, while areas farther inland could still see gusts reaching 70 to 90 km/h.

When these winds combine with intense snow squalls moving through late Monday morning, blizzard criteria will likely be met in several regions. This is especially true east of Lake Huron, including Huron, Perth, Grey and Bruce counties, as well as areas southeast of Georgian Bay near Lake Simcoe, where winds are expected to be strongest.

As the main system exits by Monday afternoon, snowfall will become increasingly driven by moisture from the lakes. This will concentrate the heaviest and most persistent snowfall within the snowbelt, particularly east of Lake Huron and around Lake Simcoe, where steady light to moderate lake effect snow will continue.

While snowfall rates during this phase may not be extreme, the combination of ongoing snow and strong winds will continue to produce near-zero visibility at times. Blizzard conditions may persist into the evening hours in the hardest hit regions despite somewhat lighter snowfall rates.

Winds will slowly begin to ease overnight into Tuesday morning, but blowing snow will remain a major issue. Gusts of 70 to 80 km/h may still occur east of Lake Huron early Tuesday, keeping travel conditions hazardous even as the most intense blizzard conditions begin to fade.

The peak period for blizzard conditions is expected from Monday morning through Monday afternoon. During this time, gusts near or above 90 km/h will combine with steady lake effect snow.

Blizzard criteria is most likely to be met around Lake Huron, including areas such as Tobermory, Wiarton, Owen Sound, Kincardine, Hanover, Goderich and Grand Bend, as well as across Simcoe County and parts of northern York and Durham regions.

What is a blizzard?

In Canada, blizzard conditions are officially defined as a combination of strong winds and blowing snow that severely reduces visibility.

Environment Canada considers blizzard criteria to be met when sustained winds or frequent gusts of at least 40 km/h combine with falling or blowing snow to reduce visibility to 400 metres or less. These conditions must persist for at least four consecutive hours to be classified as a blizzard.

It is important to note that blizzard conditions are based on visibility and wind, not snowfall amounts, meaning they can occur even with relatively light snowfall if winds are strong enough to cause widespread blowing and drifting snow.

Surrounding areas may also see periods of blizzard conditions, including London, Tillsonburg, Woodstock, Kitchener, Newmarket, Oshawa and Orillia. Confidence is slightly lower in these locations due to their distance from the core lake effect bands, but brief or localized blizzard conditions remain fairly likely.

Across Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham and Sarnia, localized blizzard conditions are possible for a few hours Monday morning as heavier system snow moves through. Similar brief conditions could develop in the Niagara region and the outer Golden Horseshoe, where strong winds overlap with bursts of snow.

Overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, persistent snow squalls are expected to become established. One squall off Lake Huron may stretch through parts of Huron and Perth counties and at times reach into Woodstock and Brantford.

The Georgian Bay snow squall is expected to focus on the Collingwood to Barrie corridor and may occasionally extend into portions of York and Durham Region. These squalls may remain relatively locked in place through the night and morning hours, allowing snow to accumulate quickly as temperatures fall and accumulation efficiency increases.

By Tuesday afternoon, a shift in wind direction is expected to weaken the Georgian Bay squall. The Lake Huron squall will likely become dominant and gradually drift northward, stretching from Hanover through Kitchener and into the western GTA.

This northward drift is expected to continue into Tuesday evening, while a new squall may redevelop farther south, again focusing on Huron and Perth counties and extending toward Kitchener and Hamilton Tuesday night.

Although this forecast period ends Tuesday evening, snow squalls are expected to persist into Wednesday, with activity becoming more focused on Grey-Bruce. A separate forecast will be issued to cover conditions beyond Tuesday.

Given the meandering nature of the snow squalls east of Lake Huron, no single location is expected to dramatically outpace others in snowfall. Instead, widespread totals will be spread across communities such as Port Elgin, Chatsworth, Hanover, Flesherton, Kincardine, Mildmay, Minto, Point Clark, Wingham, Goderich, Listowel, Mitchell, Clinton, Exeter and Woodstock.

Snowfall totals in these areas are generally expected to range from 25 to 50 cm by the end of Tuesday. Similar totals of 25 to 50 cm are also likely for locations southeast of Georgian Bay, including Collingwood, Wasaga Beach, Barrie, Angus, Innisfil and Keswick.

Areas just outside the core lake effect zones, such as Grand Bend, London, Fergus, Arthur, Meaford, Owen Sound, Wiarton, Lion’s Head, Tobermory, Bradford and Orillia, are expected to see lower totals. These areas are generally looking at 15 to 25 cm of snow, though small shifts in wind direction could easily bring heavier snowfall into these communities.

For the remainder of Southwestern and Central Ontario, snowfall totals are expected to range from 5 to 15 cm. Most of this snow will fall early Monday with the system itself, followed by occasional lake effect snow through Tuesday.

Deep Southwestern Ontario, much of the GTA, the Niagara region and Eastern Ontario are expected to see less than 5 cm of snow overall. Despite lower accumulations, strong winds and brief bursts of snow could still lead to poor travel conditions at times.

December 27, 2025

End-of-Year Major Winter Storm to Bring Dangerous Ice Storm and Blizzard Conditions Across Southern and Northeastern Ontario Starting Sunday

December 27, 2025/ Brennen Perry

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As we close out 2025, the final few days are shaping up to be very messy and potentially dangerous. A complex and powerful winter storm is expected to impact Ontario between Sunday and Monday, bringing ice storm conditions to a wide swath of Central, Eastern and Northeastern Ontario.

With significant and prolonged freezing rain expected, widespread and long-lasting power outages are likely in the hardest hit areas. Ice accretion of up to 20mm is possible, and unfortunately, the regions most at risk include many of the same areas that were hit hard by last March’s major ice storm. In some locations, the power grid remains fragile, which raises additional concern.

Further north, the story will shift to heavy snow across much of Northeastern Ontario. Long-lasting blizzard conditions are possible here, with snowfall totals potentially exceeding 50cm by the time the storm finally winds down on Tuesday.

This system will also bring the risk of severe wind gusts across both Southern and Northern Ontario on Monday. Areas closest to the shorelines of the Great Lakes will be at the greatest risk, with damaging wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h possible. There may even be some isolated pockets, mainly in the Niagara region, that approach 100 km/h.

Southwestern Ontario will be largely unaffected by the first phase of the storm. Temperatures here will rise steadily on Sunday, peaking in the double digits by late afternoon or evening. Rain will fall steadily through Sunday and into early Monday. However, conditions will change rapidly as temperatures plunge Monday morning, creating a potential flash freeze as all that rainfall quickly freezes on roads and other surfaces.

Later on Monday, strong wind gusts will combine with steady, moderate snowfall around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Blizzard conditions could develop during the afternoon and evening as visibility drops and blowing snow becomes intense.

The storm will begin to take shape late Sunday morning as the first bands of precipitation spread into Northeastern Ontario and parts of Southwestern Ontario. This will initially include some light freezing rain extending from London through Kitchener and Barrie.

Sunday afternoon will be heavily dependent on the position of the freezing line, which is expected to slowly expand northeastward. Areas to the southwest will gradually climb above freezing and escape the worst of the icing, while regions farther northeast remain locked below zero.

By around midday, most of Central and Eastern Ontario is expected to remain well below freezing. Higher elevation areas northwest of the GTA will hover close to the freezing mark, including Hamilton, Kitchener, Guelph and Orangeville. How long the cold air remains trapped at the surface will play a major role in how impactful the icing becomes in places like the Kitchener area.

Meanwhile, Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, will already be sitting in the mid single digits. Heavy rain will be ongoing here, but there will be no winter storm impacts during the day on Sunday.

As Sunday afternoon progresses, the freezing rain shield will expand northward into the North Bay area and the Ottawa Valley. The heaviest icing during this time is expected to focus around Lake Simcoe.

Locations such as Bracebridge, Lindsay, Orillia, Peterborough, Barrie, York Region, Kitchener and Orangeville appear likely to see the worst icing on Sunday afternoon. Precipitation rates will be quite heavy, allowing ice to accumulate rapidly on roads, trees and power lines.

At the same time, Southwestern Ontario, including the Niagara region, will see heavy rain, with some embedded non-severe thunderstorms possible. Rainfall totals could be significant, with some localized areas exceeding 50mm by Monday morning.

Flooding could be a concern as frozen ground has a lower ability to absorb the rain.

As we move into Sunday evening, the freezing rain zone will become very expansive as the system rapidly intensifies. Intense icing is expected from Sault Ste. Marie through Sudbury and North Bay and into Central and Eastern Ontario.

Meanwhile, colder and more entrenched air across Northeastern Ontario will allow precipitation to switch over to heavy snow. Areas from Wawa to Kapuskasing will see snowfall rates increase significantly.

By late Sunday evening, uncertainty will increase across southern portions of Central and Eastern Ontario as temperatures hover very close to the freezing mark. This includes Barrie, Orillia, Muskoka, the Kawarthas, Peterborough and Kingston. If cold air proves even slightly more resilient than currently expected, these regions could remain below freezing overnight and continue to experience ice storm conditions.

In Deep Southwestern Ontario, it will feel almost surreal for late December, with temperatures climbing into the double digits even around midnight.

Overnight Sunday into early Monday, heavy snowfall will expand farther south across Northeastern Ontario as colder air continues to advance. Areas including Sault Ste. Marie, Timmins and the Cochrane corridor are expected to transition from freezing rain to heavy snow.

This transition is especially concerning for the power grid, as heavy snow may accumulate on top of ice-coated trees and power lines. That combination could lead to significant damage, particularly in more remote and heavily forested areas.

For the Sudbury to Ottawa Valley corridor, freezing rain is expected to continue through the overnight hours with ice accumulation steadily increasing. This region is likely to see some of the worst overall impacts due to the length of time spent under freezing rain.

By late Monday morning, the next phase of the storm will unfold in the form of a flash freeze across Deep Southwestern Ontario. Rapidly falling temperatures will cause any remaining moisture to freeze quickly on untreated surfaces, creating extremely hazardous travel conditions.

As freezing rain ends across Central and Eastern Ontario and temperatures drop by Monday afternoon, the true extent of the damage will become clear. Current data suggests the hardest hit areas may include Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough, Haliburton, Bancroft, Tweed, Kaladar, Renfrew, Perth and Ottawa. Ice accretion in these regions may range from 15 to 20mm, with localized pockets potentially approaching 25mm.

In the Ottawa Valley, temperatures may not rise above freezing at all before the flash freeze arrives. This would lock ice in place for an extended period, worsening impacts. Farther south, a brief window above freezing may help slightly reduce overall damage.

A broader area of Central and Eastern Ontario, along with higher elevations northwest of the GTA and parts of Northeastern Ontario, can expect between 10 and 15mm of ice. This includes Brockville, Kitchener, Guelph, Newmarket, Barrie, Muskoka, Parry Sound, North Bay, Sudbury and Sault Ste. Marie.

Ice amounts will decrease closer to Lake Ontario and away from higher terrain. Between 5 and 10mm is possible from Kingston through the northern GTA and higher elevations around Hamilton and Grimsby. Less than 5mm is expected for Oshawa, Mississauga, Hamilton and Meaford. Little to no icing is expected near Lake Huron and Lake Ontario, where temperatures remain above freezing for most of the event.

While freezing rain will end, hazardous conditions will continue. By late Monday morning, rain will change to heavy snow around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Strengthening winds of 70 to 90 km/h will create dangerous travel conditions and likely meet blizzard criteria.

Combined with the flash freeze, widespread road closures are likely east of Lake Huron and into Northeastern Ontario. Travel should be avoided in these regions.

The strongest wind gusts are expected during the morning and afternoon on Monday before slowly easing in the evening. Areas exposed to the lakes will see the worst winds, with gusts of 95 to 110 km/h possible across the Niagara region and into Prince Edward County.

Near damaging gusts of 85 to 95 km/h are possible along the Lake Ontario shoreline from Kingston through the GTA and Hamilton, as well as along the Lake Erie and Lake Huron shorelines and southeast of Georgian Bay into Simcoe County and Orangeville.

Elsewhere across Southwestern Ontario and southern portions of Central and Eastern Ontario, peak gusts of 75 to 85 km/h are expected. Farther north, including the Ottawa Valley, gusts will generally range from 65 to 75 km/h. While lower, these winds may cause greater damage due to occurring after significant ice accumulation.

Conditions will remain treacherous through Monday afternoon with strong winds and persistent snowfall, especially near the lakes, where blizzard conditions continue.

Snowfall totals associated with the main system will wrap up by Tuesday morning. Central Ontario and parts of Southwestern Ontario east of Lake Huron can expect 5 to 15cm of snow, with localized totals exceeding 15cm near Kincardine, Hanover and Owen Sound due to lake enhancement.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, snowfall amounts will generally range from 2 to 5cm.

In Northern Ontario, snowfall totals will be far more significant. The highest amounts are expected in Cochrane, Timmins, Chapleau and Kirkland Lake, where totals of 50 to 75cm are possible between Sunday evening and Tuesday morning.

A broader swath of Northeastern Ontario, including Wawa and Temiskaming Shores, may see 30 to 50cm. Areas such as Elliot Lake, Sault Ste. Marie and Kapuskasing could receive 20 to 30cm, while North Bay, Sudbury and Manitoulin Island are expected to pick up between 10 and 20cm.

December 26, 2025

Boxing Day Winter Storm Poised to Deliver Ice Storm Risk and Heavy Snow to Southern Ontario on Friday

December 26, 2025/ Brennen Perry

With Christmas now behind us, the focus turns to the final stretch of 2025 as we approach New Year’s next Thursday. And it’s looking like the last seven days of the year will be anything but quiet when it comes to the weather across Southern Ontario.

That active pattern becomes clear very quickly with a looming Boxing Day winter storm expected to bring a messy mix of precipitation. Some areas will see periods of heavy snowfall, while others could be dealing with a potentially damaging ice storm with prolonged freezing rain through much of the day.

For much of Central Ontario, along with parts of the Golden Horseshoe and into portions of Southeastern Ontario, the primary concern will be snowfall. Widespread totals in the 10 to 20 cm range are possible by the end of Friday. The Ottawa Valley is expected to remain on the lower end, generally staying under the 10 cm mark.

The forecast becomes more complicated through Southwestern Ontario, extending through Hamilton and into the Niagara Region. Here, a mix of snow and ice pellets is expected, which will limit snowfall totals but still create hazardous travel conditions.

The freezing rain risk has shifted slightly northward in the latest model guidance, as warmer air aloft is now expected to push deeper into Southern Ontario than earlier projections suggested. This places the Sarnia to London corridor in the bullseye for the highest ice accretion. Freezing rain totals of 10 to 15 mm are possible, which could result in significant power outages and very icy road conditions.

Beyond Friday, attention is already turning to another slow-moving system expected to arrive Sunday and linger into Monday. This system appears to have access to much more moisture compared to Friday’s storm, raising the concern for a prolonged period of freezing rain that could last anywhere from 12 to 24 hours.

What adds to the concern is that current model guidance is focusing this next threat over parts of Central and Eastern Ontario, the same areas that were hardest hit by last winter’s major ice storm. There is still uncertainty with the exact track, and it could shift north or south, but it is something we are watching very closely.

Before we get ahead of ourselves, the immediate focus remains on Friday’s storm. Precipitation is expected to begin during the early to mid-morning hours as bands move in from the west. Light to moderate snow will spread into Grey-Bruce, Simcoe County, Muskoka and the GTA during this time.

For Windsor, Chatham and Sarnia, light freezing rain is expected to begin by mid-morning. Precipitation may be somewhat scattered at first but will steadily increase in coverage and intensity as the morning progresses.

By late morning, the worst conditions should be underway, with heavy icing ongoing around Chatham, Sarnia and London. Travel conditions in these areas are expected to deteriorate quickly.

Further north and east, heavy snow will be the main concern across Muskoka, Simcoe County, Peterborough and the eastern GTA, including the City of Toronto.

Between the freezing rain to the southwest and the heavy snow to the north and east, a corridor of ice pellets is expected to develop from the Lake Huron shoreline through Kitchener and into Hamilton.

Poor conditions will persist into Friday afternoon, with steady snowfall continuing across Central Ontario into Kingston. Wind gusts approaching 40 km/h may lead to localized blowing snow, further reducing visibility at times.

The ice pellet zone may also push further into the GTA, with Toronto potentially switching over to ice pellets for a time. This would limit snowfall totals and keep them closer to the 10 cm range.

Sarnia and London are expected to remain locked into freezing rain through much of the afternoon. There may be some hope for the Chatham area, where temperatures could briefly rise just above freezing and allow a changeover to rain by mid-afternoon. However, this is right on the line and could still go either way. Windsor and Leamington are expected to remain solidly in the rain zone.

The system is expected to gradually wind down later Friday afternoon and into the early evening. Precipitation will taper off first across western areas, then slowly come to an end across the Golden Horseshoe and Eastern Ontario by late evening.

Based on the latest data, the highest ice storm concern has been focused on the Sarnia, Lambton, Middlesex and London corridor. While there is still some disagreement on exact intensity, the potential exists for ice accretion exceeding 10 mm, with localized amounts approaching 15 mm.

Communities included in this higher risk zone include Wallaceburg, Sarnia, Petrolia, Thamesville, Lambton Shores, Grand Bend, St. Thomas and London.

Across Essex County, the highest ice accretion is expected in the northern portions of the county, including Windsor and Tilbury. These areas could see 5 to 10 mm of ice before a changeover to rain. Closer to the Lake Erie shoreline, including Leamington, icing should be minimal, generally under 2 mm, as temperatures rise above freezing more quickly.

Further north, freezing rain amounts will be reduced as ice pellets dominate initially, with freezing rain gradually mixing in later. Locations such as Lucan, Exeter, Woodstock, Tillsonburg, Simcoe, Port Colborne and Fort Erie could see a faster transition to freezing rain, with 5 to 10 mm of ice possible following a few hours of ice pellets.

For Huron and Perth counties, including Kitchener, Brantford and Niagara Falls, ice pellets are expected to linger longer. This will limit freezing rain to only a few hours near the end of the storm, with ice accretion generally in the 2 to 5 mm range. Less than 2 mm of icing is expected for Hamilton, Guelph and southern Grey-Bruce.

On the snowfall side of the storm, the highest totals are expected to range from 10 to 20 cm across Northeastern Ontario, down into Central Ontario and parts of Eastern Ontario.

This includes areas such as Sudbury, North Bay, Parry Sound, Muskoka, Simcoe County, York Region, Toronto, Durham Region, the Kawarthas, Peterborough and Kingston.

Lower snowfall totals are expected in the Ottawa Valley, where amounts of 2 to 5 cm are forecast for Ottawa and 5 to 10 cm from Bancroft into Brockville. This is due to the core of the system’s moisture remaining further south.

South of the heaviest snow band, totals will decrease as ice pellets mix in later in the storm. Grey-Bruce, Orangeville, Guelph and the western GTA are currently expected to see 5 to 10 cm, though some model solutions suggest even less if mixing becomes more dominant.

Even lower snowfall totals are expected east of Lake Huron into Hamilton and Niagara, where less than 5 cm is forecast as ice pellets and freezing rain become the primary precipitation types.

Once this system exits Friday night, Saturday should bring a brief period of calmer weather. However, that break will be short-lived, as another potentially high-impact winter storm is expected to approach as early as Sunday, possibly arriving in multiple waves.

The overall setup supports the potential for a prolonged area of freezing rain that could remain locked in place into Monday. This raises concern for a significant ice storm event, potentially similar in nature to last winter’s devastating storm across Central and Eastern Ontario.

Those same regions are once again in the early bullseye. While there is still time for this forecast to change, this is the type of setup where residents should begin thinking ahead and preparing for the possibility of extended power outages if the scenario does not improve.

We will continue to monitor this closely and will have a more detailed update once we get through Friday’s storm.

December 24, 2025

Potential Boxing Day Winter Storm Targets Southern Ontario With Significant Freezing Rain Risk and Up to 15-20cm of Snow

December 24, 2025/ Brennen Perry

While winter weather has mostly taken a breather across Southern Ontario over the past week, things are about to turn active again as we head into the final days of 2025.

That change begins on Boxing Day with a messy winter system expected to slide through Southern Ontario. This system will bring a wide range of hazards, including the threat of significant freezing rain in Deep Southwestern Ontario and more widespread snowfall across much of the rest of the region.

There are still some question marks surrounding this storm, particularly when it comes to how strong it ultimately becomes. Some lower-resolution models show a fairly robust system with plenty of moisture to work with. At the same time, higher resolution guidance that is now coming into range is hinting at some drier pockets, which could cause this system to underperform in spots.

Complicating matters further is the fact that this system has the characteristics of an Alberta Clipper. Clippers are notorious for being difficult to forecast since they often lack a deep source of moisture, and small changes can make a big difference in precipitation type and totals.

What we do know at this point is that impacts will vary significantly across Southern Ontario. The highest risk area continues to be Deep Southwestern Ontario, especially the Windsor, Chatham and Sarnia region, which currently sits in the bullseye for prolonged freezing rain.

In these areas, sustained freezing rain could lead to substantial ice accretion on roads, trees and power lines. This would result in dangerous travel conditions and an increased risk of power outages. With over 10mm of icing possible, there is also concern for widespread tree damage as branches struggle under the weight of the ice.

Further north, from areas east of Lake Huron through the Greater Toronto Area and into Central and Eastern Ontario, the primary precipitation type is expected to be snow. Snow will fall steadily through much of the day on Friday with general accumulations of 5 to 15cm by the end of the day. Locally higher amounts approaching 20cm are possible west of Lake Ontario around the Toronto area due to lake enhancement.

The first bands of precipitation are expected to arrive early to mid-morning on Friday, spreading across Lake Huron into Southwestern Ontario. As the system moves in, it will encounter a stubborn layer of cold air near the surface across Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Leamington, Chatham and Sarnia.

At the same time, warmer air will surge in above the surface, creating a classic setup for freezing rain. This warm layer aloft melts the snow into rain, which then freezes on contact with cold surfaces at the ground.

**850MB TEMPS (1.5KM ABOVE GROUND)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The biggest challenge with events like this is determining how far north and how deep that warm layer extends. This is the key factor that decides whether precipitation falls as ice pellets or as freezing rain.

Temperatures roughly 1.5km above the surface vary considerably between models. The Canadian model is more aggressive, pushing the warm layer farther north into Southwestern Ontario and even as far as London.

Overall, model consensus places the freezing line somewhere near a Sarnia to London corridor. Areas south of this line are more likely to see freezing rain, while areas to the north will see a mix of ice pellets and snow.

By the early afternoon, heavier snow will begin spreading into Central Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe as precipitation from Northern Ontario moves southeast across Georgian Bay. At the same time, freezing rain will be ongoing around Windsor, Chatham and Sarnia.

There are indications that temperatures may slowly climb above freezing for southern Essex County, including Leamington and eventually Windsor. There is still disagreement on the exact timing of this changeover, but it appears most likely sometime during the early to mid-afternoon.

If temperatures do rise above freezing, freezing rain would switch to plain rain, and any ice accretion would begin to melt. How quickly this happens will be critical in determining overall impacts. If the warmup is delayed until later in the day or temperatures stubbornly remain below freezing before dropping Friday night again, impacts could be significantly worse.

For areas like Chatham-Kent, Sarnia and St. Thomas, there is growing concern that temperatures may remain below freezing for much of the event. This would allow ice to accumulate for a prolonged period, with over 10mm of accretion possible. Ice amounts of this magnitude are capable of bringing down tree limbs and power lines, potentially leading to power outages that could last for several days.

By mid-afternoon, the heaviest snow will be pushing through the Golden Horseshoe. Some models are showing the potential for lake enhancement along the Lake Ontario shoreline from Niagara through Hamilton and into Toronto. If this develops, snowfall rates could briefly spike to 3 to 5cm per hour compared to the more general 1 to 2cm per hour elsewhere.

It is also important to note that ice pellets may mix in at times, which can limit snowfall totals since ice pellets are denser than snow. This is most likely for areas such as London, Kitchener, Hamilton and Niagara, where conditions are more supportive of mixed precipitation. Areas closer to Toronto and farther north into Central Ontario should see more consistent snow.

Light to moderate snow will also spread into Eastern Ontario by the afternoon and continue into the evening before tapering off around midnight. Confidence in snowfall totals here is lower, but amounts in the 5 to 10cm range appear possible by the end of the day.

While there is decent agreement on the overall track of this system, fluctuations are still very likely. Freezing rain events are among the most difficult to forecast, and even small temperature changes can have major impacts.

At this time, the highest confidence for the worst impacts remains across the Chatham, Windsor and St. Thomas area, where a persistent band of freezing rain is expected to set up for much of the day on Friday. Some models show up to 20mm of liquid precipitation, though not all of that would freeze on surfaces. For now, we are forecasting over 10mm of ice accretion, with the understanding that an overachieving scenario is still on the table.

For southern Essex County, including Leamington and possibly southern Windsor, ice accretion of 5 to 10mm is possible before a changeover to rain. Because of this transition, overall impacts should be lower compared to areas farther north, where freezing rain may last longer.

Farther north, from Sarnia through London and into Norfolk County, precipitation may begin as ice pellets in the morning before transitioning to freezing rain later in the afternoon or early evening. Ice accretion here could range from 3 to 8mm, depending on how quickly this transition occurs.

A corridor stretching from Goderich through Kitchener, Hamilton and into the Niagara region is expected to start with heavier snow Friday afternoon. Mixing with ice pellets later in the day could reduce snowfall totals, with most areas seeing around 5 to 10cm by the end of the event.

Areas that remain predominantly snow from start to finish include Grey-Bruce, much of Central Ontario, Eastern Ontario and the eastern portions of the GTA. Snowfall totals here should generally range from 10 to 15cm, with localized amounts up to 20cm. In Eastern Ontario, especially closer to the Quebec border, totals may struggle to reach 10cm, making 5 to 10cm a more realistic expectation.

We will continue to monitor the latest data closely and will have a more detailed and refined forecast on Thursday night. That update will provide a clearer breakdown of precipitation types and expected amounts. Be sure to check back for the final forecast.

December 21, 2025

White Christmas Locked In for Parts of Southern Ontario, While Others Face the Risk of a Green Christmas for 2025

December 21, 2025/ Brennen Perry

As the big day approaches this Thursday, many across Southern Ontario are starting to ask the big question. Will we wake up to that picture-perfect White Christmas, or will the Grinch sneak in at the last minute and snatch it away from right under our noses (and our carrots)?

In some parts of Southern Ontario, especially the snowbelt regions, it might feel like a White Christmas is already wrapped up and sitting under the tree. These areas were absolutely pummelled by relentless snow squalls earlier this month, leaving behind an impressive snowpack.

But for others, it has been a very different story. Some regions managed to dodge the worst of the snow so far this season, and whatever snow did fall has largely melted away thanks to a recent stretch of milder weather.

That sets the stage for a classic Christmas weather showdown. The Grinch, helped along by a few Heat Miser inspired temperature spikes, will try to erase what little snow remains. Jack Frost, however, is waiting in the wings and is expected to take over closer to Christmas. This makes a weak system expected Tuesday into Wednesday the key player, potentially delivering a last minute chance at a White Christmas for some areas.

**CURRENT SNOWFALL DEPTH (cm)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

We begin by looking at the existing snowpack, which is often the biggest clue in determining where a White Christmas is all but guaranteed. The most impressive snowpack is found east of Georgian Bay through Simcoe County and into Muskoka, Haliburton and Bancroft.

Model estimates suggest a solid 10 to 25cm of snow on the ground here. These models are fairly low resolution and likely underestimate reality, especially since much of this snow fell during intense lake effect events.

There is also a respectable snowpack of around 5 to 15cm in the higher elevations of Southwestern Ontario, particularly northeast of London. These areas have taken the brunt of snow squall activity several times already this month. Meanwhile, snowpack east of Lake Huron has been noticeably reduced by the recent mild spell.

Outside of those regions, there really is not much snowpack left that can meaningfully contribute to a White Christmas. This includes Deep Southwestern Ontario, the Niagara Region, much of the Golden Horseshoe and into Eastern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley.

**estimated max temp on tuesday** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The first challenge arrives early this week as temperatures steadily rise above freezing for more than 24 hours. The warmest day looks to be Tuesday, with daytime highs climbing above freezing across much of Southern Ontario, with the main exception being parts of the Ottawa Valley.

Some areas could even push into the mid to upper single digits, especially in Deep Southwestern Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe. That is more than enough warmth to put a serious dent in any remaining snow.

Rain may also enter the picture early Tuesday in some areas. Combined with above-freezing temperatures, this will further erode minor snowpack. At that point, the only snow that is truly expected to survive is east of Georgian Bay. For many other areas, including east of Lake Huron, the final outcome will depend heavily on the last 36 hours leading up to Christmas morning.

**NEW SNOWFALL BY CHRISTMAS MORNING (cm)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The system moving through on Tuesday is expected to bring light snowfall across Eastern Ontario. With temperatures expected to remain below freezing afterward, this snowfall should help lock in a White Christmas for the Ottawa area, even though there is currently very little snow on the ground. A general 5 to 10cm by Wednesday should be more than enough to tip the scales.

In Southwestern Ontario, however, the outlook is not as festive. Much of the snowfall associated with this system is expected to fall before temperatures rise and precipitation transitions to rain. Any snow that does fall will likely melt away quickly.

The one exception may be the higher elevations east of Lake Huron, where temperatures could hover near freezing just long enough for the snowpack to cling on until Christmas morning. Even there, it will be very close.

**estimated temp on CHRISTMAS MORNING** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

By Christmas morning itself, current indications suggest many across Southern Ontario will wake up to below freezing temperatures. That will help preserve whatever snow remains on the ground. This includes much of Central and Eastern Ontario, as well as higher elevations northwest of the GTA, such as Orangeville and Kitchener.

In Deep Southwestern Ontario and areas along the Lake Erie shoreline into parts of the GTA, temperatures are expected to be slightly above freezing. With very little existing snowpack to work with, those milder conditions are likely to melt away any lingering hope of a White Christmas.

Putting all of this together, we have created our preliminary White Christmas forecast. This is not the final word and adjustments are possible as we get closer to Christmas morning. Several of the uncertainties mentioned above will resolve themselves over the next couple of days, giving us a clearer picture than the models can provide right now.

Our highest confidence area, where we can almost guarantee a White Christmas with a 90 percent chance, covers a wide swath of Central Ontario, including Muskoka, Bancroft and northern and western Simcoe County. These regions have a deep, well-established snowpack. East of Lake Huron, we also assign a 90 percent chance for Hanover and much of Huron and Perth Counties, where repeated lake effect snow has buried the landscape.

Outside of that core region, we currently have a 75 percent chance for much of Eastern Ontario, along with areas such as Peterborough, Barrie and Kitchener. Confidence is fairly strong here, thanks to the existing snow southeast of Georgian Bay and the expected system snowfall in Eastern Ontario on Tuesday.

That said, melting remains a concern for Barrie and Kitchener if temperatures rise a bit more than expected on Tuesday. For Eastern Ontario, confidence also depends on the system delivering as forecast, so we want to see that snow on the ground before bumping probabilities any higher.

Closer to Lake Ontario, the dream of a winter wonderland starts to fade. From Kingston through the north GTA corridor and extending into London, we currently place the odds at around 50 percent. Along the immediate Lake Ontario shoreline, including much of the GTA, things become even more questionable with only about a 25 percent chance of a White Christmas.

For those in the Niagara Region and Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham and Sarnia, it may take a true Christmas miracle. Unless a last-minute snowmaker slides through just before Christmas morning, it looks like the Grinch may win this one.

We will continue to monitor the forecast closely and provide updates as Christmas morning draws nearer. Keep checking back, because in the weather, especially at Christmas, surprises are always possible.

December 16, 2025

Blizzard Conditions Expected as High Impact Winter Storm Targets the Prairies Wednesday With Up to 30cm of Snow

December 16, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

***NOTE: if you click or tap on this image you can zoom in***

The next Clipper to cross the Prairies, the latest in the seemingly never-ending train of such systems, is setting up to be the most impactful of the season so far. This system will bring 15+cm of snow to all three provincial capitals, along with blizzard conditions to parts of Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba Wednesday and into Thursday. There has been little change in the projected track of the Clipper since we shared our preliminary forecast Monday evening so many of the details remain the same and total snowfall accumulations have become clearer.

Alberta

Snow has fallen throughout the day Tuesday in the Rockies and this will continue into the evening and overnight. Late Tuesday evening, the snow will begin to expand southeastward from Northwestern Alberta as the low pressure center associated with the system starts to make its way into the province. The leading edge of the snow will cross Alberta through the early morning hours, reaching the Saskatchewan border shortly before sunrise.

***The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 5Am MT on Wednesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

The snow will be fairly light to moderate for most of the impacted areas of Alberta. A majority of Southern Alberta can expect less than 5cm since the precipitation will start off as a mixture of rain and freezing rain, possibly for several hours, due to the temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. However, there will be a switch over to snow as the temperatures drop, leading to the freezing of wet surfaces and minimal snow accumulation.

To the north, the lack of warm air and more consistent snowfall will result in greater accumulations. A large swath of Central Alberta and into Northern Alberta can expect 5-15cm of fresh snow, falling at rates of 1-2cm/hr during the late morning and early afternoon. In the Edmonton area and southeastward through Wainwright to the Saskatchewan border, heavier snow is expected to fall, possibly exceeding 3cm/hr, leading to rapid accumulation above 15cm.

In the early afternoon, the snow will begin to taper off from northwest to southeast across Alberta and it will gradually exit the province during the evening.

***The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 12Pm CST on Wednesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

Saskatchewan

As the system makes its way through Saskatchewan, the situation becomes quite a bit messier. The leading edge of the precipitation will start to push through the province during the morning mostly as snow, but with rain, freezing rain, and ice pellets in the mix through the warmer air that will be present in Southern Saskatchewan. The freezing rain could last for several hours, resulting in a few millimetres of ice buildup on untreated surfaces. However, as the low tracks eastward during the afternoon, cold air will wrap around and result in a freezing of wet surfaces and a period of snow that follows.

Meanwhile, across Central Saskatchewan, as the snow moves through the province, it will intensify. Heavy snowfall rates up to 4cm/h during the afternoon and evening will result in the widespread quick accumulation of 15-30cm over an area that includes both Saskatoon and Regina.

***The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 7Pm CT on Wednesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

Manitoba

The snow will finally start to cross into Manitoba in the late morning. There will be a much smaller pocket of warm air that will be isolated to the southwest corner of the province, so while there will be a chance for a brief period of freezing rain in Manitoba, the risk won’t be as prolonged or as widespread as in Saskatchewan.

The area of heavier snowfall will spread from Central Saskatchewan into Central Manitoba through the afternoon and evening, where it will also result in a widespread 15-30cm of fresh snow, including in Winnipeg.

During the evening, the system will begin to shift and start to track more southward as it also loses some intensity. This will bring the main band of snow into Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southern Manitoba overnight and through Thursday morning.

In Saskatchewan, the snow will taper off starting shortly after midnight and exit the province by around sunrise. The snow will continue for a few extra hours in Manitoba, starting to dissipate during the early morning hours and eventually finishing in the southeast corner of the province in the afternoon.

This only covers the snowfall aspect of this storm, but there is one major factor left to consider: the wind. Strong winds are expected to develop Wednesday morning and continue through the afternoon and evening before dying down overnight across the Prairies. We’re looking at widespread wind gusts over 60km/h and likely exceeding 100km/h, particularly in Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. There is even the possibility of damaging wind gusts that approach 130km/h in parts of Southern Alberta!

While the most intense gusts will not coincide with the area where the heaviest snow is expected to fall, gusts above 60km/h will be more than enough for blizzard conditions to develop across Central Saskatchewan and into Central Manitoba starting in the afternoon and lasting into the overnight hours. This will likely result in large stretches of multiple highways being closed due to very poor visibility along with rapid accumulation of snow on the road surfaces.

For the rest of the region, where the wind gusts could be stronger, even a little bit of snowfall could severely impact visibility throughout the day.

Travelling in these conditions can extremely dangerous so please plan ahead, try to limit any travel, and stay safe!

December 15, 2025

First Look at the Major Snowstorm Set to Impact the Prairies This Week

December 15, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

***NOTE: if you click or tap on this image you can zoom it***

After a seemingly constant stretch of back-to-back clippers bringing brief blasts of snow, we’re finally looking at a proper snowstorm across the Prairies this week. While this will be another clipper, it will be much more impactful, bringing periods of heavy snow to Edmonton, Saskatoon, Regina, and Winnipeg. Here’s a preliminary look at roughly what can be expected, but keep in mind that exact timing and snowfall amounts will likely change between now and the start of the event.

The snow is set to begin late Tuesday or very early Wednesday morning in the Rockies and Northern Alberta before gradually spreading eastward with the trajectory of the associated low. The leading edge of the snow will cross into Saskatchewan before sunrise Wednesday and then into Manitoba by the late morning or early afternoon.

The snowfall should be fairly moderate as it tracks across Alberta before it starts to taper off in the evening. To the east, on the other hand, the snow is expected to intensify Wednesday afternoon in Saskatchewan and in the evening in Manitoba, leading to a significant swath of up to 30cm of heavy snowfall by the noon hour on Thursday.

To complicate matters further, strong winds with gusts exceeding 100km/h are expected across the Southern Prairies beginning Wednesday afternoon and continuing overnight. This will very likely lead to white-out conditions, possibly even reaching the threshold to be considered a blizzard, in Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba that will probably result in highway closures.

It’s also worth noting that in the warm sector, along the southern edge of the snow, there will be the possibility of a mixture of rain, freezing rain, and ice pellets which would be followed by snow as the temperatures fall. We will have more information on this risk, along with further details regarding the entire storm in our full forecast that will be posted Tuesday evening.

December 13, 2025

Southern Ontario’s Never-Ending Winter Continues This Weekend as Squalls Threaten to Bring Up to 50cm of More Snow

December 13, 2025/ Brennen Perry

With a steady parade of system after system, along with lake effect snow in between, it’s certainly understandable that some parts of Southern Ontario are getting pretty fed up with all the snow. The snow continues to pile up, especially across the snowbelt regions!

It was only a few days ago that the Barrie area was slammed with intense lake effect snow, with up to 70cm reported in the hardest hit community of Angus. And that doesn’t even include what was already on the ground before this round of squalls moved through.

Regions east of Lake Huron, including Grey, Bruce, Huron and Perth counties, have also seen their fair share of snow so far this winter, with frequent lake effect events adding to an already deep snowpack.

Fortunately for snow lovers, and perhaps unfortunately for everyone else, the squalls are far from finished. The lakes remain wide open, and we are just getting into the heart of colder Arctic air. That combination will continue to provide plenty of fuel for additional rounds of lake effect snow in the coming weeks.

The next round of squalls is just around the corner, with activity expected to ramp up again as early as Saturday morning. The good news for areas that were recently hammered by the Georgian Bay squall, including Barrie and Wasaga Beach, is that you should catch a bit of a break this weekend. The bulk of the activity will focus farther north and west.

Those east of Lake Huron, including Huron, Bruce and Grey counties, are not as lucky. Lake effect snow off Lake Huron is expected to target these areas once again with repeated rounds of snow through the weekend.

This is shaping up to be a multi-day lake effect event, with squalls persisting through the weekend and possibly into Monday. Winds are expected to be somewhat unstable, which means the squalls will tend to drift around rather than remain locked over one specific area. Because of this, it’s unlikely we’ll see extreme localized totals like the 50 to 75cm that fell southwest of Barrie earlier this week.

That said, snowfall totals will still add up. The hardest hit areas, including Parry Sound, Bracebridge, Tobermory, Owen Sound, Hanover, Collingwood, Goderich and Grand Bend, can generally expect 25 to 40cm. Some pockets, particularly across Muskoka, could push closer to the 50cm mark.

The event is expected to get underway early Saturday morning as a brief southwesterly wind develops. A weak system moving through the region will become enhanced by the lakes, producing short bursts of heavy snow.

This could impact areas northeast of Georgian Bay as well as regions northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Places like Parry Sound, North Bay, Niagara and Kingston could see a quick 5 to 10cm early Saturday morning, along with near-zero visibility at times.

As that system exits, winds will become more westerly, shifting the focus back to Georgian Bay and Lake Huron through Saturday afternoon and evening.

Current model guidance shows a fairly potent and narrow band setting up near the northern tip of the Bruce Peninsula, stretching across Georgian Bay and coming inland near Port Carling and Bracebridge. Keep in mind that even small shifts in wind direction could push the heaviest snow several dozen kilometres north or south.

Very poor to hazardous driving conditions are expected along the Highway 400 and Highway 11 corridors in this area. Highway closures are not out of the question, especially given how quickly conditions can deteriorate.

Additionally, somewhat weaker bands are also expected to develop off Lake Huron, impacting the Owen Sound to Goderich corridor. There remains uncertainty regarding exactly where these bands will set up and whether they consolidate into a more dominant squall.

Later Saturday, a subtle wind shift will cause the main Georgian Bay squall affecting Muskoka to briefly drift south into Simcoe County. This could bring a short period of heavy snow overnight Saturday to Midland, Orillia and Barrie. Accumulation here should be limited, generally around 5 to 10cm, as the squall will be moving through fairly quickly.

A similar evolution will occur east of Lake Huron, with the squall drifting from Tobermory down through the Bruce Peninsula and into southern Bruce and Grey counties overnight. This activity will continue as the squall settles farther south and west of London under a more north-northwest flow.

By Sunday morning, the strongest lake effect activity is expected to be found off Lake Huron, affecting the Grand Bend to London corridor. At this point, it appears the core of the squall should remain just west of London, impacting areas like Strathroy, though brief pushes into the city are still possible.

The Georgian Bay squall will temporarily weaken as winds become less favourable for a strong lake fetch. This should restrict activity mainly to shoreline areas near Meaford and Collingwood for a time.

That break will be short-lived. By Sunday evening, increasing winds will allow lake effect snow off Georgian Bay to intensify once again. Some models show moderate to heavy snow developing from Meaford through Collingwood and extending toward the Orangeville region overnight, before the lake effect machine is shut down by an approaching system on Monday morning.

Lake Huron squalls will continue through this time, remaining heavy at times across Huron County, Grand Bend and areas west of London. As with earlier periods, most of the heaviest snow should stay just to the west of the city.

Because the squalls will be shifting around, snowfall will be more evenly distributed across a wider area. We aren’t expecting extremely high localized totals, but many communities will still share in the heavy snowfall. By the end of the weekend, most areas east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay could see totals ranging from 25 to 50cm.

The usual lake effect disclaimer applies. Some locations will inevitably end up just outside the heaviest bands, but the contrast should be less dramatic this time since most snowbelt areas will be impacted at some point.

The main target zones include areas east of Georgian Bay, such as Parry Sound, Rosseau, Port Carling, Bracebridge and Port Sydney, along with much of Bruce, Grey, Huron and Middlesex counties east and southeast of Lake Huron. This includes communities like Tobermory, Wiarton, Lion’s Head, Owen Sound, Meaford, Collingwood, Flesherton, Hanover, Chatsworth, Port Elgin, Kincardine, Mildmay, Point Clark, Wingham, Goderich, Clinton, Exeter, Lucan, Grand Bend and Strathroy.

Snowfall totals will drop off quickly outside of these regions, as lake effect snow remains highly localized. However, as mentioned earlier, a brief 5 to 10cm is still possible Saturday morning for parts of Niagara and the Kingston area due to lake-enhanced snow from the passing system.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, expect around 2 to 5cm from that system on Saturday, with most locations likely closer to the lower end of that range outside of the snowbelt.

December 10, 2025

Barrie Area to Be Buried in Up to 40 to 75 cm of Snow on Thursday as Arctic Air Fuels Dangerous Snow Squalls

December 10, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Snowfall from the Alberta Clipper that slid through Southern Ontario earlier on Wednesday is beginning to taper off. The system has left its mark across the region with a widespread 10 to 20cm of snow in some areas, while others saw a slushy mix.

While the clipper may be done, the snowfall story is not. As the system pulls away, it ushers in a polar blast of cold air overnight on Wednesday. This air, combined with strong northwesterly winds, will kick the lake effect snow machine back into gear off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

Intense snow squalls across Simcoe, Huron and Perth counties throughout Thursday are likely to create dangerous conditions. Frigid wind chills paired with near-zero visibility will make travel extremely difficult and even life-threatening if you become stranded.

The Georgian Bay squall is expected to be particularly intense. A narrow corridor from Wasaga Beach through southwest Barrie, including Angus, Innisfil and into Bradford, may see the band lock in place for more than six hours. Snowfall rates could exceed 5cm per hour.

Localized totals around the Barrie area could approach 50 to 75cm in the hardest hit pocket. Some high resolution models even suggest 100cm is not completely off the table.

East of Lake Huron, activity will be persistent from Thursday morning through the evening. The lake effect here appears more spread out rather than focused on one specific pocket. The heaviest totals are expected across Huron and Perth counties, where up to 50cm is locally possible.

As of Wednesday evening, we are already seeing some activity begin ramping up off the southeast shoreline of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. This will continue to organize after midnight into the early hours of Thursday.

By early morning, we expect the most focused squalls to target the Goderich to London corridor off Lake Huron and the Collingwood to Bradford stretch off Georgian Bay.

Keep in mind, this is a rough idea from the models, and the exact placement can shift if the wind direction changes even slightly.

By the time the morning commute begins around 6 AM, snow squall activity will intensify as the Georgian Bay band becomes extremely narrow and focused. Some model runs have it stretching from Wasaga Beach through Angus and into the Innisfil to the Newmarket area.

There remains uncertainty in how much snow the City of Barrie itself will receive. The gradient between limited snow and a huge dumping will be very tight. The south and west ends are most likely to see major impacts, although it would not take much of a shift for the band to slide directly into the city.

The Lake Huron activity will begin to spread out with moderate snowfall covering much of Huron and Perth counties, including Goderich, Wingham, Stratford and Listowel. Because the band is more diffuse, there will not be one intense pocket as we expect with the Georgian Bay squall.

**ESTIMATED WIND CHILL** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

A major factor with this round of squalls that makes the situation more dangerous is the very cold wind chills. When you wake up Thursday, wind chills will make it feel like the -20s. Combined with squalls at the same time, the risk to anyone stranded on the roads increases significantly.

Aside from the cold creating hazards, it will also boost snowfall rates. Colder air produces drier, fluffier snow, which allows the same amount of moisture to create a larger volume of accumulation.

Little will change heading into the late morning as the Georgian Bay squall remains locked in place near the Barrie area. The band could edge far enough north to put the city core into the bullseye. Keswick may also be brought into the heavy snow as the band wobbles.

For the Lake Huron squall, the band may briefly become more focused as a single strong line cutting through Goderich and into Stratford and Woodstock. Depending on slight track shifts, Kitchener or Hamilton could also be affected at times.

Conditions are expected to deteriorate further into the afternoon. The Georgian Bay squall appears to strengthen with hourly snowfall rates easily exceeding 5cm and possibly pushing 10cm. At this point, the most intense pocket is shown just southwest of Barrie, with Angus being hit hardest.

The Lake Huron squall will also become more organized with an impressive fetch stretching all the way toward Lake Erie and impacting Woodstock and Norfolk.

There is significant concern for the Hwy 400 corridor during the afternoon and evening commute from just south of Barrie to roughly Aurora. This section of highway will likely become snow covered with road crews struggling to keep up with extreme snowfall rates. Combined with whiteout conditions, travel in this zone should be avoided unless absolutely necessary.

As we head into the evening and just past midnight, the squalls will retreat closer to the lakeshores as winds weaken and moisture supply cuts off. This will lead to activity tapering to lake effect flurries overnight into Friday morning.

As always with snow squalls, snowfall forecasts should be taken with a large grain of salt. While models are in good agreement on placement and intensity, nothing is guaranteed as conditions need to align perfectly.

With that being said, we believe the hardest hit zone will be along the southeastern Georgian Bay shoreline from Wasaga Beach through Angus and into northern York Region. Barrie sits right on the edge but could easily end up inside the bullseye. Snowfall totals here are likely to exceed 40cm and may approach 75cm. Around Angus is where models show the strongest signal.

A tight gradient will set up with the north and east sides of Barrie, along with Keswick, Bradford and Collingwood, likely seeing 25 to 40cm of snow.

East of Lake Huron including Kincardine, Minto, Point Clark, Wingham, Listowel, Mitchell, Stratford, Exeter and Goderich, totals of 25 to 40cm are expected. Localized amounts up to 55cm are possible if a squall locks in place for several hours.

Totals of 15 to 25cm are possible for Midland and into central York Region including Newmarket and Aurora as well as Durham Region around Uxbridge. These areas will see occasional bursts of heavy snow near the edge of the main bands.

Southern Bruce and Grey counties along with Wellington County including Arthur and Oxford County may also see 15 to 25cm but totals depend on how far inland the bands extend.

Between 5 and 15cm is possible across the rest of York and Durham Region as well as northern Simcoe County including Orillia, Owen Sound, Shelburne, Fergus, Kitchener, Brantford and London. These locations sit farther from the core activity so most will see closer to 5cm with higher amounts only if a band stretches farther inland.

Less than 5cm is expected outside the snowbelt regions including Eastern Ontario, Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe.

December 09, 2025

Back-to-Back Clippers To Deliver Up to 20cm of Snow Across Southern Ontario by Wednesday

December 09, 2025/ Brennen Perry

It has certainly been feeling a lot like winter over the last few weeks across Southern Ontario as the snow continues to pile up. Several clippers and rounds of lake effect snow have already delivered a healthy start to the season.

That trend shows no signs of slowing down as we enter the second week of December.

An Alberta clipper duo is set to slide through Southern Ontario back-to-back over the coming days. The second clipper arriving on Wednesday is expected to be the stronger of the two. Current indications suggest heavy snow combined with strong wind gusts may heavily impact the Wednesday morning commute.

By the time the second clipper wraps up late Wednesday, combined snowfall totals are expected to range from 10 to 20cm across a wide swath of Central, Eastern and Southwestern Ontario. Localized totals up to 25cm cannot be ruled out, especially if there is some lake enhancement.

Lower totals are expected along the Lake Ontario and Lake Erie shorelines where temperatures may climb just enough for some rain to mix in later Wednesday morning. Around 4 to 8cm is possible for Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe.

In the wake of the clippers, we are also monitoring a potential prolonged snow squall risk beginning Wednesday evening and potentially continuing through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Snowbelt regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay could be dealing with significant snowfall totals. There is still uncertainty regarding the exact placement of these bands.

Things will begin to kick off late Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon as precipitation from our first clipper enters from the west. Widespread light to moderate snow will spread across Southwestern Ontario, the Lake Huron shoreline and into portions of Central Ontario and the GTA.

This snow is not expected to be particularly intense, although locally heavier pockets are possible through the Bruce Peninsula and into Sudbury where lake enhancement may add extra moisture to an otherwise dry system.

Steady snow will continue throughout the afternoon on Tuesday and into the evening. The story with this first clipper will be the steadiness of the snowfall rather than the intensity. Major routes should remain drivable, but expect a slower evening commute with light snow ongoing at the time.

**TOTAL SNOWFALL (CM) FROM CLIPPER #1** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

This clipper will begin to wind down later in the day on Tuesday with final amounts ranging from 2 to 8cm. The heaviest pockets will be east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. For the rest of Southern Ontario, accumulation will fall on the lower end of that range.

However, do not let the lower totals by Tuesday evening lead you to let your guard down. Our next clipper is not far behind and will track toward Southern Ontario from the Midwest by late Tuesday evening.

Ahead of it, we may see a few hours of heavy snow squalls develop northeast of Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario. This could bring brief but heavy snow to areas like Parry Sound, Muskoka and Kingston.

Conditions will really begin to deteriorate with the second clipper as the bulk of the precipitation spreads into Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe right at the height of the Wednesday morning commute.

Some wet snow or even rain may mix in along the Lake Ontario and Erie shorelines which could suppress totals around the GTA and Niagara region.

The key difference with this clipper compared to the one 24 hours earlier is that the snowfall will arrive in a much shorter window instead of being spread throughout the day.

Hourly snowfall rates may reach 2 to 4cm through the London to Kitchener corridor. While the intense snow will not last long, just a few hours of that kind of snowfall can add up fast.

Winds are also expected to gust up to 60 km/h which combined with heavy snowfall could produce blowing snow and significantly reduced visibility. The morning commute is likely to be heavily impacted and school bus cancellations are quite possible on Wednesday.

The heaviest snowfall rates will not last long for Southwestern Ontario and the GTA as the 1+cm per hour rates shift into Central and Eastern Ontario by late morning.

Temperatures will also rise through the late morning and early afternoon which may allow some rain to mix in around the GTA and the Lake Erie shoreline.

And yet, that is only the beginning because as the second clipper exits the region late Wednesday, the lake effect snow machine is expected to fire back up quickly by Wednesday evening.

Current data shows a focus on the London, Huron, Grey-Bruce, Collingwood and Barrie areas Wednesday night. The lake effect risk may carry into Thursday and possibly into the weekend as very cold air settles across Southern Ontario.

It remains unclear whether the wind direction will become stable enough to allow long-lasting snow squalls, but if it does, we could be looking at staggering snowfall totals by next week.

We will have a more precise breakdown of the snow squall risk closer to Thursday once high resolution model data is available to pinpoint where the bands may focus.

Turning back to the combined snowfall totals from the two clippers, we expect a wide zone stretching across much of Central and Eastern Ontario and into Southwestern Ontario east of Lake Huron to end up around 10 to 20cm. There is potential for over-performance as some recent models have trended upward showing widespread 20 to 25cm. As clippers can sometimes struggle with moisture, we have undercut that slightly to better reflect the consensus.

One area where that moisture struggle may occur is southeast of Georgian Bay, including Barrie and York Region. Models show slightly lower totals of 6 to 8cm here, so we have placed those regions in a 5 to 10cm range. This 5 to 10cm zone also extends along the Hwy 401 corridor into Deep Southwestern Ontario and into the Ottawa region.

For regions directly along the Lake Ontario and Erie shorelines like Toronto, Mississauga, Oakville, Burlington, Hamilton and St Catharines, snowfall may struggle to reach 5cm due to mixing potential and above freezing temperatures limiting accumulation.

Keep in mind that these are combined snowfall totals from both systems. Roughly 50-75 percent of the total will likely fall within a 6 hour period on Wednesday which is when conditions will be at their worst.

Additional snowfall is possible later Wednesday into Thursday with snow squall activity. Those amounts are not included in this map. A separate forecast will be issued on Wednesday for that.

December 08, 2025

Nasty Winter Storm Will Bring Mixed Bag of Precipitation, Flash Freeze Risk, and Strong Winds to Alberta Monday & Tuesday

December 08, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

The forecast across Alberta for Monday and Tuesday is certainly complex. We are looking at all precipitation types; rain, snow, freezing rain and ice pellets; to be falling somewhere in the province and some places could see a combination of different kinds of precipitation. There is also a widespread risk of a flash freeze and to top it all off, wind gusts exceeding 100km/h are likely.

Before we get too ahead of ourselves, let’s start with the least complicated aspect of the forecast: the snow in Northern Alberta and through the Rockies.

Northern Alberta & The Rockies

Light snow has been falling in parts of Northern Alberta Monday morning and into the afternoon, trailing the previous round of widespread snowfall across the region. A narrow band of snow will persist through the afternoon and drop 5+cm of accumulating snow by the evening.

***The Hrdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 5Pm MT on Monday, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

In the evening, widespread snow will move into Northern Alberta, including the Northern Rockies, from British Columbia. The snow will spread southeastward across Northern Alberta and into parts of Central Alberta during the evening and overnight hours.

The snowfall will last for up to 8 hours and it will start to taper off along the BC border shortly after midnight. This large band of snow will exit into Saskatchewan before sunrise, but scattered areas of light snow will linger through the morning across Northern Alberta.

The area that is expected to see snow throughout Monday afternoon will end up with the greatest accumulation by Tuesday afternoon. More than 15cm of fresh snow is anticipated over this area, especially in Peace River, on top of what has already fallen from the weekend. Beyond this, the rest of Northern Alberta and into parts of Central Alberta will be in the 5-15cm range and accumulations decrease moving southward. There is a slight caveat to this, which we will touch upon a bit further down.

For the Rockies, the snowfall will spread southward during the evening and overnight. Overall, 5-15cm can be expected throughout this region. The higher elevations will approach 15cm while the valleys will be closer, or possibly even below, 5cm.

Central Alberta

Things start to get messy in parts of Central Alberta as the band of snow travels southeastward into the region.

The arrival of a warm front that crossed through Central and Southern Alberta overnight Sunday has resulted in temperatures climbing to a few degrees above the freezing mark across the region. As the snow from Northern Alberta tracks southeast through the evening and overnight Monday, and encounters this warmer air above the surface, there will be a transition over to ice pellets (sleet) and freezing rain.

This is expected to start to occur to the north of Edmonton, from Whitecourt to St. Paul. Despite the surface temperatures remaining subzero in this area, there will be enough warm air aloft for the transition to ice pellets to happen and this area could see a few centimetres of ice pellets accumulating. The caveat mentioned above is that the map of snowfall totals also includes accumulation of ice pellets in this area.

precipitation types and their corresponding temperature profiles

Moving southward, the amount of warm air aloft increases and the precipitation will change to freezing rain. The area at risk of freezing rain stretches roughly from west of Drayton Valley and Rocky Mountain House to Wainwright and Provost. The northern part of this area will likely see a combination of ice pellets and freezing rain as the thickness of the warm air aloft decreases.

The freezing rain is expected to be light and only last for an hour or two, resulting in up to 1mm of ice accretion. However, this is still enough to cause some issues when travelling on untreated roads.

Timing-wise, the ice pellets and freezing rain will start to fall as early as 7pm Monday evening and continue into the overnight hours as the band of precipitation tracks towards Saskatchewan.

***The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 3am MT on Tuesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

Southern Alberta

In Southern Alberta, as well as in portions of Central Alberta, surface temperatures hovering around zero, and slightly above, will lead to precipitation falling as rain with a bit of wet snow mixed in. The rain will be light and scattered, broken off from the main band of precipitation, throughout the region overnight and into Tuesday morning. Unfortunately, this poses a unique problem for this region.

In the early morning hours of Tuesday, a sharp cold front will start to blast southward through Central and Southern Alberta. Temperatures could plunge by up to 20°C in the span of only a few hours, resulting in a flash freeze of any rain that has fallen, as well as the snow melt from the previous day.

This flash freeze is expected to happen just in time for the morning commute for Calgary and communities to the north, so road conditions could be very poor if they aren’t treated ahead of time and maintained. The cold front will then stall around Calgary through the morning and afternoon before it continues tracking southward during the evening, bringing below freezing temperatures to the rest of Southern Alberta.

If that wasn’t enough, strong winds gusts up to, and possibly exceeding, 100km/h are possible in Southwestern Alberta overnight Monday. Luckily, these strong winds should die down by Tuesday morning.

***The hrdps model showing surface temperature at 1am MT on Tuesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

***The hrdps model showing surface temperature at 0am MT on Tuesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

All in all, this incoming system will impact most of Alberta, with each region expecting to be impacted in different ways. Road conditions will deteriorate across the province at some point over the next 24 hours so make sure to plan accordingly when travelling and stay safe.

December 04, 2025

Short Blast of Snow Behind a Cold Front Will End the Week with 5-15cm of Snow for Parts of Alberta

December 04, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

After some above-freezing temperatures and a mixed bag of precipitation on Thursday, a cold front will sweep through Central and Southern Alberta overnight Thursday. The arrival of cooler air will be accompanied by widespread snow on Friday. Accumulations of 5-10cm are expected across a swath of Northern and Central Alberta, as well as parts of Southern Alberta, by the end of the day Saturday.

Scattered flurries are likely Friday morning and into the early afternoon, but the snow will become more organized in the mid-afternoon. It will begin in the Grande Prairie area and then spread southeast during the late afternoon and evening. Accumulating snow will arrive in Edmonton just in time for the evening commute so the drive home may be slow.

In the late afternoon, snow will also cross into Southern Alberta from the Rockies and spread eastward through the evening. While snow is also expected to impact Calgary during the evening commute, the snow will be lighter and shouldn’t cause too many problems for drivers.

***The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 7Pm MT on Friday, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

Steady snowfall is expected to continue across a large stretch of the province into the overnight hours, but it will start to taper off in the early morning. By sunrise on Saturday, most of the snow will have ended, but there will still be some lingering light snow throughout the remainder of the day.

Overall, 5-15cm of snow can be expected from Grande Prairie through Edmonton and towards the Saskatchewan border. Most of this area will be in the 5-10cm range, but snowfall totals could approach 15cm around the Grande Prairie and High Prairie.

In Southern Alberta, some localized intensification is possible Friday evening and overnight around Lethbridge and Taber, which would lead to accumulation exceeding 5cm. Otherwise, the remainder of Central and Southern Alberta and into Northern Alberta will see 2-5cm of snow, but there is the possibility of snowfall totals exceeding 5cm locally.

Winds should remain fairly light while the snow is falling so blowing snow shouldn’t be too much of a concern.

December 03, 2025

Brief, Intense Snow Squalls Return to Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt on Thursday With Up to 20 to 50cm Expected

December 03, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Intense but brief snow squalls are expected to return to parts of the snowbelt region around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay early Thursday morning with the arrival of a blast of brisk Arctic air. These squalls have the potential to bring heavy snowfall and near-zero visibility in the hardest hit areas.

Conditions are certainly ripe for more extreme, long-lasting squalls; However, the latest model data suggests this round will be cut short as shifting winds prevent the bands from locking in place for any prolonged period of time.

Snow squalls developing off Lake Huron will follow a west-northwest flow with the most intense activity aimed at the northeastern shoreline, which includes much of Grey Bruce. Another band off Georgian Bay will have a less steady flow, making the Lake Huron squall the stronger and more focused of the two.

This band is expected to remain mostly stationary through much of the morning and possibly into the early afternoon before slowly weakening later in the day. Hazardous conditions are expected in this zone with complete whiteouts, blowing snow and rapid snowfall rates of 4 to 6cm per hour.

The hardest hit areas are likely to be around Port Elgin, Kincardine and Owen Sound where a band could set up early and barely move until the afternoon as winds ease and the squall dissipates. The reach of this band may stretch inland into parts of Grey County at times, including Meaford, Chatsworth, Flesherton and Hanover. Some areas could be digging out from significant totals by the end of the day.

Meanwhile, over Georgian Bay, shifting wind directions will make things much less predictable. The squall here will likely spread snowfall over a wider area rather than focusing on one region, mainly due to the flow swinging from westerly to northwesterly throughout the day.

It will likely begin with a westerly flow during the early morning, which would start the band in southern Muskoka, including MacTier, Bala, Bracebridge and Gravenhurst. It may also extend at times into southern Haliburton and northern Kawartha Lakes.

As winds turn more northwesterly, the band will slide down along the Hwy 400 and 11 corridor into northern Simcoe County, affecting Midland, Orillia and Washago. Travel in this region during the morning and early afternoon should be avoided if possible, as conditions will be quite poor.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the intensity of this Georgian Bay band, as shifting winds tend to weaken squalls and make them less organized. If it becomes even briefly stationary, that would likely be the period where snowfall intensifies.

How long the band can hold together before winds lock into a true northwest flow will determine totals for areas such as Barrie and the southern portions of Kawartha Lakes. By the early afternoon, the squall will have sunk into Wasaga, Oro and Barrie, but once the wind shift finalizes, the band will quickly lose its structure and begin to fizzle out.

If the squall lasts only into the mid-afternoon, Barrie may end up closer to 10cm. If it somehow holds into the evening, totals closer to 30cm would be possible.

All snow squall activity is expected to taper off by Thursday evening across Southern Ontario, although some light snow may linger overnight into Friday morning in areas closer to the lakes.

For Northern Ontario, snow squalls off the southeastern shoreline of Lake Superior will develop overnight and persist through much of Thursday. Sault Ste. Marie and the Wawa region may pick up 30 to 50cm by the end of the day. That lake effect activity is expected to weaken Thursday evening as a weak system shifts the wind direction.

Snowfall totals will vary widely due to ongoing uncertainty about the exact placement and duration of the bands. Confidence is highest that the Lake Huron squall will remain more focused compared to the Georgian Bay band.

As a result, the hotspot includes Port Elgin, Owen Sound, Hanover and Chatsworth, where 30 to 50cm is expected, with some models even hinting at localized pockets approaching 60cm.

The rest of Grey and Bruce counties are looking at 15 to 30cm, although totals may vary significantly depending on how far inland the squall extends and whether it drifts south into northern Huron and Perth counties.

Areas farther south and inland, including the rest of Huron and Perth counties, Wellington, Dufferin and Collingwood can expect around 5 to 15cm, but there is still a chance for much lower amounts if the band does not stretch that far.

A large zone along the Hwy 400 and 11 corridor from MacTier and Gravenhurst in the north to Barrie in the south, including Midland, Washago, Orillia and Wasaga, is expected to see the highest totals from the Georgian Bay squall.

At this point, 15 to 30cm appears likely, although localized totals up to 40cm are possible should the squall stall for any period of time. If that occurs, the most probable region for this is somewhere between Midland and Orillia.

The rest of Muskoka, Parry Sound, Haliburton, Kawartha Lakes and northern York and Durham regions can expect between 5 and 15cm, depending heavily on how far inland the Georgian Bay squall is able to stretch.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, less than 5cm is expected by the end of Thursday.

November 29, 2025

Yet More Snow on the Way for Southern Ontario With a Snowy System on Sunday Bringing Up to 10-20cm

November 29, 2025/ Brennen Perry

As many communities in the snowbelt regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay are currently digging out from locally over 50cm of snow from squalls over the past two days, another snow maker is already on the way, just in time for the final days of November.

Instead of very isolated pockets seeing intense snowfall totals as we have seen with the lake effect activity, this system will spread accumulating snow across almost all of Southern Ontario. Widespread totals by the end of the weekend are expected to range from 5 to 15cm, with locally as much as 20cm in the areas that remain colder for longer.

Snowfall is expected to begin moving in from the west by late Saturday evening, starting first across Deep Southwestern Ontario. By the middle of the overnight, steady light to moderate snowfall will extend across almost all of Southern Ontario as the system further progresses into our region.

By late Sunday morning, southwesterly winds flowing across the still warm waters of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario are expected to push temperatures several degrees above freezing along the northern shorelines. This may allow the last remaining few hours of precipitation to switch over to rain for some communities right along the lakeshore.

There could also be a lake effect component to this system as it departs our region to the east. As this happens later in the day on Sunday, we may see locally heavier pockets of lake effect snow develop east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, which also happens to include some of the same areas hit hard by the squalls over the last few days. This could push weekend totals into the 20 to 25cm range, especially if these bands linger longer into Sunday night.

Looking ahead to the start of the week, Monday should be fairly quiet as the lake effect activity tapers off early in the morning and the remaining flurries from the system fizzle out. It will certainly be colder with everyone seeing temperatures plunge below freezing. However, that calm weather may be short-lived.

There are early indications of another potential system sliding south of the Great Lakes region. Depending on the track, this could bring another round of heavy snow throughout the early part of Tuesday, especially for areas further southeast.

The initial bands of snowfall associated with the weekend system will begin to enter Southwestern Ontario from the west sometime just after the dinner hour on Saturday.

For most areas, the snowfall should be fairly light at first, but some models are showing the potential for several hours of heavier snowfall rates approaching 2 to 4cm per hour for Windsor, Leamington and Chatham. This could lead to a quick 5 to 10cm by the end of the night if the heavier bursts materialize.

As we head into the overnight hours, the system is expected to continue spreading eastward across Southern Ontario, with almost all areas seeing steady snowfall by the middle of the overnight.

Snowfall rates are not expected to be overly extreme, with most regions seeing less than 1cm per hour through Sunday morning. Even still, this snowfall is expected to continue for 6 to 12 hours, which will allow the totals to gradually build up.

Because the snow will be more widespread and less intense than recent squall activity, road crews should be able to keep up with the conditions on most major routes. Travel delays are still likely, so if you do need to drive, be sure to leave plenty of extra time and adjust your speed based on the conditions.

Winds are expected to pick up through the later part of Sunday morning, coming out of the southwest, and flowing across Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. This will push warmer air into the northern shorelines, which may allow the snow to switch over to rain directly along the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shorelines.

Due to this transition, slightly lower snowfall totals are expected here, and some areas may struggle to reach the 5cm mark. This includes the Greater Toronto Area near the lakeshore, along with Port Colborne, Norfolk County, Tillsonburg, St. Thomas and Rondeau.

The system is expected to gradually taper off through Sunday afternoon, leaving scattered flurries in its wake into the evening. This leftover precipitation is likely to be enhanced by Lake Huron and Georgian Bay through Sunday evening and into the overnight hours.

Expect an additional 5 to 10cm of snowfall on top of the system totals in the areas that see lake effect enhancement. This could push the end-of-weekend totals to locally as much as 20 to 25cm in the traditional snowbelt regions.

When it comes to the distribution of precipitation, we expect it to fall fairly evenly across the province. However, snowfall totals will vary based on temperature differences, which will influence how efficiently the snow can accumulate.

The higher snowfall totals from this event are expected in the more northern sections of Central Ontario and extending into the Sudbury and North Bay region. This includes Parry Sound, Muskoka, Algonquin Park and Bancroft.

These regions will see more sustained below freezing temperatures throughout the event, along with lake effect enhancement late Sunday. With this, we are looking at around 10 to 20cm, with locally up to 25cm possible in the heavier lake effect pockets.

A similar situation is expected east of Lake Huron and along the higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands and Oak Ridges Moraine, where slightly colder temperatures will help accumulations. Expect 10 to 20cm in these areas as well, with localized totals around 25cm, especially east of Lake Huron.

Everyone else, with the exception of the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shorelines, is looking at a general 5 to 10cm. Some areas could see locally up to 15cm if temperatures end up just a bit cooler than expected. This includes the rest of Southwestern Ontario into Windsor, Chatham and Sarnia, the Lake Simcoe region and parts of the Ottawa Valley.

For communities exposed to the shorelines of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, which includes Toronto, Oshawa, Oakville, Hamilton, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Port Colborne and Rondeau, snowfall totals will likely be closer to the 2 to 5cm range due to the warmer air intrusion and rain mixing during the latter part of the system.

As we look into next week, we are closely watching another potential system that could have an impact on Southern Ontario throughout the day on Tuesday. There is still some uncertainty on the exact track, with the latest model runs shifting it slightly further north, which would increase impacts across a wider portion of the region. However, it could easily shift back south.

At this point, we can say there is a decent chance of 5cm or more across a wide stretch of Southern Ontario, with the highest probability being further southeast, including the Niagara region and communities along the St. Lawrence River. Be prepared for possible impacts to the Tuesday morning commute, including the potential for school bus cancellations if the system trends stronger.

Expect possible impacts to the morning commute on Tuesday, including possible school bus cancellations, should we see a stronger system.

November 27, 2025

BIG CHANGES Coming to Environment Canada’s Alerts Beginning Today

November 27, 2025/ Adam Skinner

Environment Canada is making big changes to the way it issues weather alerts, in an attempt to make them easier to understand at a glance.

Starting today, Wednesday, November 26th, 2025, the new system will use Yellow, Orange or Red colours for all 'Advisories', 'Watches' and 'Warnings'.

'Statements' will remain unchanged (blue or grey), for now.

Environment Canada is making this change to hopefully help you quickly gauge both the severity of a weather event and the level of confidence forecasters have in their predictions.

Shown in the chart above, Environment Canada forecasters will choose the colour of alerts based on an "Impact" level and a "Confidence" level.

Here’s a breakdown of the upcoming changes and what they mean for you.

Headline Changes

Currently, weather alert headlines look like this:

Heat Warning

Under the new system, the headline will include a colour code that signals risk. For example:

Yellow Level Warning – Heat

We at Instant Weather feel that something about "Yellow Level Warning – Heat Issued" looks… strange and extra confusing.

Therefore, when we post Environment Canada alerts to social media, send notifications via our free app, and send out text message alerts, we're going to format it like this:

Heat Warning (Yellow Level) Issued

We believe this will make the transition from the old format to the new format easier for our community members. However, we'd love to hear your feedback on this so please let us know what you think about it!

NEW COLOURS

For the first time, advisories, watches and warnings will come in one of three colour options:

- Yellow = low risk (stay alert)

- Orange = moderate risk (take precautions)

- Red = high risk (serious danger)

Impact Level

The new Impact Level will estimate how much damage or disruption a storm is likely to cause.

Possible values:

- Low

- Moderate

- High

- Extreme

For example, a minor snowfall could be flagged as low impact, while a hurricane might carry an extreme impact designation.

Confidence Level

The new Confidence Level should help clarify how confident the Environment Canada forecaster issuing the alert feels.

Possible values:

- Low

- Moderate

- High

- Very High

For example, a “very high confidence” alert means there's near zero question if the storm poses a threat to the alerted area, while a “low confidence” could suggest that path may shift direction or the storm could dissipate.

Why These Changes Matter

Environment Canada believes these updates make weather alerts more actionable and accessible. Instead of vague warnings, you’ll know:

- The severity of the threat (colour level).

- The expected damage (impact level).

- The certainty of the forecast (confidence level).

For further details on these alert changes, visit Environment Canada’s newly launched website regarding colour-coded alerts:

https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/severeweather/weather-alerts/colour-coded-alerts.html

November 26, 2025

Dangerous Snow Squalls Target Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt Starting Thursday With Up to 75cm of Snow Possible

November 26, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Confidence continues to grow in what is shaping up to be a potentially dangerous snow squall event for regions east of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay as we wrap up the week.

Temperatures are expected to drop sharply overnight Wednesday, which will help kick the lake effect snow machine into gear as early as Thursday morning.

At first, the activity should be fairly limited. Scattered pockets of lake effect snow are expected to develop east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay as a westerly wind pattern holds through the morning. Impacts will be minor at this stage, but this early activity will set the stage for a much more intense setup later in the day.

Rapid changes are expected by late Thursday morning and especially into the afternoon. This is when more organized squalls will begin to form.

The worst conditions are expected to develop late Thursday and last into Friday morning. A brisk northwesterly wind will allow narrow but powerful bands of snow to strengthen off both Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. These bands will be capable of producing snowfall rates near 5 to 10 cm per hour at times, along with near-zero visibility.

Travel will likely become extremely difficult through the hardest hit regions. Strong winds will create blowing snow and possibly even brief blizzard conditions. Road closures are possible, and anyone with non-essential travel plans should consider postponing. School bus cancellations appear likely for Friday, and there is even some potential for cancellations on Thursday, depending on how quickly conditions deteriorate.

The main snow squall activity is expected to taper off throughout the day on Friday, although some scattered bands could linger into Saturday. By the end of the day Friday, some areas east of Lake Huron, such as Goderich, Kincardine and Stratford, may be digging out from more than 40 cm of snow. Other parts of the snowbelt may see anywhere from 10 to 40 cm, depending on how close they are to the core of the activity.

As mentioned earlier, Thursday morning will start with some light to moderate activity east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. This includes Grey Bruce, Parry Sound and Muskoka.

Impacts should be limited at first since the snow will be fairly light, but Environment Canada currently has a snow squall watch in effect for this entire region due to what will likely unfold later in the day.

Conditions will escalate quickly heading into the late morning and afternoon as scattered flurries begin organizing into more defined bands. We expect a fairly long squall to develop over Lake Huron, cross the Bruce Peninsula and come onshore east of Georgian Bay. This could bring a few hours of heavy snow to the Muskoka region.

Additional pockets of lake effect snow may also fire up further south off Lake Huron, affecting areas like Goderich, Hanover, Stratford and Kitchener.

That Georgian Bay squall is expected to gradually sink southward as the wind shifts from westerly to northwesterly. This will cause a swath of intense snow to drift across the Highway 11 and 400 corridor between Bracebridge and MacTier, down toward Barrie.

A few hours of rapid whiteout conditions are possible during the afternoon. Even though temperatures may hover near the freezing mark, which slows accumulation, visibility will still be extremely poor and blowing snow will create dangerous travel conditions.

Conditions will worsen significantly into the evening as the squall drifts far enough south to draw its full moisture supply from Lake Huron instead of Georgian Bay. This new orientation will allow the band to tap into a longer stretch of open water, which increases its intensity.

At this point, several intense bands could stretch inland between Kincardine and Goderich and reach as far east as Kitchener and even the western GTA at times.

There is still some uncertainty in how these bands will align. A slight shift in wind direction can cause a squall to lock in place further north or drift south. This will dramatically affect who sees the heaviest snow. Regardless, conditions will be poor even in areas that are not directly underneath a streamer due to the blowing snow.

Within the core of the squalls, snowfall rates of 5 to 10 cm per hour will be possible. Thundersnow and lightning cannot be ruled out, given the strength of the setup.

Georgian Bay will see a brief lull with lighter pockets of snow affecting the South Muskoka to Simcoe County corridor. This break will be short-lived as winds shift yet again heading into the overnight hours.

The most dangerous conditions are likely overnight Thursday into Friday morning. A very intense squall off Lake Huron is expected to set up somewhere between Goderich and Kincardine and stretch inland toward regions between Kitchener and London.

There is still uncertainty about the exact placement. Even a tiny shift in wind direction could pin this band farther north or push it farther south. At times, it may also extend into Hamilton and the Niagara region with quick bursts of heavy snow and whiteouts.

Southeast of Georgian Bay, more organized bands are likely to develop from Barrie into Kawartha Lakes. Some of this activity may also clip the northern GTA, including York and Durham. The Georgian Bay squall will likely be weaker than the Lake Huron band, but model trends have strengthened it slightly in the latest data. Peak snowfall rates will likely sit around 3 to 6 cm per hour in the strongest areas.

Temperatures will plunge well below freezing overnight which will help snow accumulate far more efficiently.

Most model data suggests that the lake effect bands will remain locked in place through Friday morning, although the intensity may gradually decrease during the afternoon as winds begin to ease. Snow squalls could continue into Saturday, but confidence drops for the weekend pattern since the bands may become more fragmented and less organized.

As always with lake effect snow, exact totals are extremely difficult to predict. These events can produce huge differences over very short distances. One community could pick up 50 cm while another, only a few kilometres away, sees barely any accumulation.

Even with this uncertainty, the most consistent model signal points toward a high-impact zone east of Lake Huron, picking up a general 40 to 75 cm of snow by Friday evening. This includes Goderich, Point Clark, Kincardine, Mildmay, Wingham, Clinton, Mitchell, Listowel and Stratford.

Localized totals near 100 cm cannot be ruled out, although these would be isolated pockets rather than widespread amounts.

A wider zone east of Lake Huron that stretches into the Kitchener area has the potential to see 20 to 40 cm of snowfall accumulation.

For Georgian Bay, the squall should be weaker than the Lake Huron band. We are going with 20 to 40 cm for regions like Collingwood, Wasaga Beach, Midland, Orillia, Barrie, Innisfil, Angus and Keswick. This may end up being a slight overestimate if the squall fails to organize as we saw in the last event, which significantly underperformed.

Muskoka, Parry Sound, Kawartha Lakes and parts of the eastern GTA may see 10 to 20 cm depending on how far the bands push inland.

Less than 10 cm is expected for the rest of Southern Ontario, including Eastern Ontario, the Golden Horseshoe and deep Southwestern Ontario, since they will be far enough removed from the main lake effect activity.

November 23, 2025

Widespread 5–15cm of Fresh Snow to Blanket the Southern Prairies Early This Week

November 23, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

As we get closer to the start of the storm expected to cross the Prairies and weather models have come closer in agreement, we now have more confidence to discuss the potential impacts over the next couple of days. This storm will travel eastward along the international border, which will limit most of the snowfall to southern portions of all three Prairie provinces.

Alberta

The snow will make its way into Southwestern Alberta after midnight, gradually spreading eastward across the province during the early and mid-morning hours. It’s during this time that there is also a risk of freezing rain for communities closer to the border, but it will quickly be replaced by snow. Meanwhile the scattered flurries remaining from Sunday through Calgary to Red Deer are also expected to organize and intensify, joining the snow further to the south.

***The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 7am MT on Monday, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

As we get later in the morning, there will likely be some intensification and increased snowfall rates along the Highway 3 corridor and southward, which will result in greater overall accumulation. By lunchtime, the snow will begin to taper off to the north of Calgary and then from west to east starting in the early afternoon and exiting the province completely in the evening.

A widespread 5-15cm of snow is predicted by the end of Monday across Southern Alberta and areas that experience the heavier snowfall closer to the border could be on the higher end of that range. There could be pockets where accumulation totals could approach 20cm to the south of Highway 3, but this is much more likely to occur east of Highway 36.

***The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 7pm CT on Monday, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

Saskatchewan

The leading edge of the snow will move into Southwest Saskatchewan in the mid-morning and it will spread eastward across the province through the day. There is also the slight risk for some freezing rain along the border to the south of Maple Creek and Shaunavon, but it should be over quickly.

The snowfall across Saskatchewan will be fairly short-lived and by the time the snow reaches the Manitoba border in the evening, it will actually start to taper off back along the Alberta border. Throughout the remainder of the evening, overnight and into Tuesday morning, the snow will gradually end from west to east.

Similarly to in Alberta, much of Southern Saskatchewan can expect at least 5cm of snow by midday Tuesday. There will also be heavier snowfall from Maple Creek to Estevan, mostly along Highway 13 and southward. This particular region will likely see snowfall totals around 20cm and Environment Canada may issue a snowfall warning to reflect this.

***The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 7am CT on Monday, courtesy of WeatherBell.***

Manitoba

By the time the snow makes its way into Manitoba Monday evening, the entire system is expected to shift course and start moving more in a southeast direction as it interacts with another low pressure system from the States. As a result, the steady moderate snowfall will not extend as far east through the province. Regardless, the snow will still make its way across Southern Manitoba overnight and into Tuesday morning. It will slowly start to taper off from west to east around sunrise, gradually ending for border communities in the Eastman Region Tuesday evening.

The system will also start to weaken as it makes its way into Manitoba, so the heavier snowfall expected in both Alberta and Saskatchewan is looking like it won’t be as much of a concern. There will still be a swath of the region that can expect more than 5cm of snow by the end of Tuesday, but it is likely that this won’t exceed 10cm.

It is possible that this change in direction is more subtle than showing on weather models or doesn’t occur at all. We will watch as the system takes shape and makes its way through Alberta and Saskatchewan. If it appears that the track will change from what was initially expected, it’s likely that we will update our forecast for Manitoba.

As it stands, a decent amount of snow is expected to fall across the Southern Prairies. This snow will be heavy in some areas, which will likely make travel a headache, especially on some of the busier highways. Be sure to give yourself plenty of extra time if travelling during these periods of heavy snowfall and stay safe.

November 15, 2025

Snow Squalls Take Aim at London, Barrie and Northern GTA on Sunday With Up to 25-50cm of Snow Possible

November 15, 2025/ Brennen Perry

We enjoyed a brief break from the wintry weather on Saturday as temperatures soared into the double digits across much of Southern Ontario. The exception was Eastern Ontario, where the Ottawa Valley dealt with hours of freezing rain.

But that warm spell is going to be short-lived. Cooler air returns overnight into Sunday, and temperatures will slide back below the freezing mark. Once that happens, the lake effect snow machine will fire up again for the next couple of days.

And no, it isn’t déjà vu. The target zone for this round of squalls will look very similar to last week’s event, but the focus shifts slightly east. That puts areas like London, Barrie and even the Northern GTA, including York Region, in line to be hit hard.

By the time the squalls wind down on Monday, the hardest hit spots could be digging out from more than 25cm, with the potential for very localized pockets of 50cm.

We expect the snow squall activity to begin ramping up late Sunday morning. As temperatures fall, lake effect rain bands will flip over to snow off the southeast shoreline of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

While the changeover happens in the morning, ground temperatures may stay just above freezing for several hours. This means the first few hours of snow could melt on contact. Accumulation will start later in the day once temperatures reach the freezing mark.

Even before the snow begins to stick, visibility will drop quickly. Those in the affected areas should expect sudden whiteouts and dangerous driving conditions.

**Hourly snowfall rate (cm)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

By the dinner hour, the squalls will become much more organized. Snowfall rates from the Lake Huron band could rise to 5cm per hour. This main band is expected to extend from Lake Huron through Goderich and southern Huron County into the London region.

Additional squall activity will form southeast of Georgian Bay, running from the shoreline through Barrie and Angus and into Newmarket and Durham. This band looks weaker than the Lake Huron squall at first, but could still deliver rates of 2 to 4cm per hour.

The worst conditions are likely around midnight. The Lake Huron band is expected to lock onto London, bringing intense snow and rapid accumulation of 6 to 8cm per hour.

The Georgian Bay squall will also strengthen, sliding south of Barrie and focusing on Angus, Bradford and Newmarket. Some signals show it reaching into the Eastern GTA, including Scarborough, Ajax and Oshawa.

These squalls should remain mostly stationary overnight, although minor drifting is possible. As temperatures fall several degrees below freezing, expect snow to pile up quickly.

By mid-morning Monday, the bands will begin to weaken as winds shift more westerly. Some lake effect flurries could linger east of Lake Huron into Grey Bruce, but they are not expected to be very organized. Everything should taper off by late Monday.

Snow squall forecasting always comes with big caveats. The bands are extremely narrow, which means the difference between 50cm and almost nothing can be only a few dozen kilometres.

This is why we provide a broad range. They help capture that uncertainty, but they are not a guarantee. With this event, the bands appear very intense but also very narrow, which means gradients will be sharp.

Based on the latest data, we expect the hardest hit areas from the Lake Huron squall to include Goderich, Clinton, Lucan, Exeter, Mitchell and London. Snowfall totals here could range from 25 to 50cm, with the chance that someone ends up over 50cm in a very localized spot.

Surrounding regions, including Grand Bend, Tillsonburg, Stratford, Wingham, and Point Clark, could see 15 to 25cm.

Further east into Grey Bruce and Dufferin County, we are expecting 5 to 15cm mainly on Monday as the lake effect shifts northward.

The Georgian Bay band looks even narrower than the Lake Huron band. A small corridor stretching from Collingwood through Angus and into Innisfil could see 25 to 35cm, with a chance of 50cm if the band really intensifies.

The City of Barrie is right on the edge. A small shift north or south would bring very different results. For now, the highest totals look likely in the south end of the city with 15 to 30cm. The north end may be closer to 10 to 20cm.

Substantial totals may also extend into the Northern GTA, including Bradford, Newmarket and Aurora. Totals along the Highway 400 and 404 corridor could range from 15 to 30cm.

Across the east end of Toronto and Durham, including Ajax, Pickering and Oshawa, occasional heavy bursts may bring 5 to 10cm.

The rest of Southern Ontario should see less than 5cm of snow by Monday from the lake effect.

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