Early October Windstorm Will Blow Across the Prairies This Weekend

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The first weekend of October is shaping up to feel like true fall across the Prairies, with a strong low-pressure system bringing powerful wind gusts of 70-100 km/h. These winds are set to begin later this afternoon and continue throughout the day on Saturday. The prolonged high winds will likely strip many trees of their remaining leaves and could pose a serious hazard to traffic, especially for transport trucks and trailers


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The windstorm will kick off in the Alberta Foothills this afternoon, quickly spreading across Southern Alberta as the evening progresses. Expect pockets of gusts exceeding 90 km/h along the QE2 corridor south of Calgary and near the American border. These intense gusts won’t last long in Alberta, though, as the winds are expected to ease overnight.

The storm will move eastward into Saskatchewan through the evening and overnight hours. By morning, the low-pressure centre will stall and the winds will intensify, leading to widespread gusts approaching, and in some areas surpassing, 100 km/h across much of Southern Saskatchewan. These fierce winds will persist into the late afternoon and early evening.

The system will push into Manitoba by late Saturday morning, with strong winds continuing throughout the day before gradually subsiding. The strongest gusts, reaching over 90 km/h, are expected in the southwest corner of the province, but many parts of Southern Manitoba will still experience significant gusts.

Temperatures will cool down a bit following this windstorm, serving as just a taste of the fall storms we can expect as the season progresses.

‘Strong’ Geomagnetic Storm Takes Aim at Earth; Northern Lights May Dazzle the Skies Across Canada on Thursday & Friday

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One of the most powerful solar flares in recent years erupted from the sun on Tuesday evening, classified as an X7.1 flare. Initially, it was unclear whether this flare had produced a coronal mass ejection (CME), which is a large expulsion of plasma and magnetic field from the sun’s corona.


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However, data that came in later confirmed that a CME was indeed produced and, more importantly, appears to be Earth-directed. This means that the CME is expected to impact our planet, setting off the possibility of a ‘strong’ geomagnetic storm and potentially bringing the northern lights much farther south than usual across Canada to close out the week.

The exact timing of the CME's arrival, however, remains somewhat uncertain. Forecast models suggest it could arrive anywhere between late Thursday and early Saturday. The CME might even come in multiple waves, according to the latest data.

If this happens, we could be in for two consecutive nights of auroras lighting up the skies—if the conditions align perfectly! While the Northern Lights are never guaranteed, the next couple of nights offer a decent chance to catch a breathtaking display, depending on where you are located.


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The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a Geomagnetic Storm Watch, with the CME expected to reach Earth between Thursday and Saturday. Based on the latest observations, this CME could trigger G1 (minor) to G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm conditions.

The SWPC’s latest forecast predicts that a 'strong' (G3) geomagnetic storm may unfold late Thursday evening into the early overnight hours, followed by a potentially more prolonged geomagnetic storm ranging from ‘moderate’ (G2) to ‘strong’ (G3) on Friday night into Saturday morning.


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A G2 to G3 storm is strong enough to make the northern lights visible across much of Canada, especially if conditions are just right. In the past, storms of this magnitude have allowed the auroras to be seen as far south as Southern Ontario, and in some cases, even into the northern United States. In fact, the SWPC notes the possibility of the auroras being visible as far south as parts of the lower Midwest and Oregon in the U.S.

That said, space weather forecasting comes with some inherent uncertainty. The exact timing of a CME’s arrival can vary, and its intensity is often unknown until a few hours before it strikes Earth. There is usually a 12- to 24-hour window for the CME’s arrival, which means that although the current forecast favours North American viewing on Thursday and Friday nights, the event could just as easily occur during daylight hours, rendering it invisible to viewers in North America and giving those in Europe a better chance at catching the show instead.


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Aside from timing, cloud cover will also be a crucial factor in determining whether you'll have a good view of the northern lights. As of now, fairly clear skies are expected across much of southern Canada on Thursday night. Specifically, areas of Atlantic Canada, Southern Quebec, and Southern Ontario are forecasted to have little to no cloud cover during the overnight hours, which is ideal for aurora viewing.

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Further north, however, there could be widespread cloud cover that might obstruct the view around James Bay in Northern Ontario and Quebec. Similarly, Northwestern Ontario could see some cloudiness, with the exception of a pocket near the International border around Thunder Bay.

In Southern Manitoba, skies look clear south of the Interlake region, though clouds will likely impact Northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan.


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For Western Canada, Southern Saskatchewan and Southeastern Alberta are expected to have the clearest conditions. Meanwhile, much of British Columbia, along with central and northern Alberta, could see cloud cover that may limit visibility.

Check out our free app, Instant Weather for a more in-depth cloud coverage forecast specific to your exact location.

If you’re planning to watch for the auroras, another factor working in your favour this time around is the moon phase. Unlike last month’s aurora event, the moon is currently near 0% full, as we’ve just had a new moon on Tuesday night. This means that there won’t be any moonlight competing with the northern lights, making it easier to spot even faint auroras.


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When it comes to where the northern lights might be visible, it all depends on the strength of the geomagnetic storm and how it interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. Historically, during a 'strong' (G3) storm, auroras are most visible across northern Canada, including Northern Quebec, Far Northern Ontario, the Prairies, and parts of British Columbia. In these regions, the northern lights could be visible overhead and bright enough to see with the naked eye.

In southern regions, including Northeastern Ontario (Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, and North Bay), as well as parts of Quebec, there’s a chance of seeing the auroras overhead or just above the horizon.

This could extend into northern parts of Southern Ontario, including Muskoka, Algonquin Park, and the Ottawa Valley. However, depending on the storm's strength, auroras may only be visible along the northern horizon, and you might need a camera to capture them, as they may not be strong enough for the naked eye.


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For the rest of Southern Ontario and into Atlantic Canada, if the auroras appear, they will likely be on the northern horizon. Here, too, you may need a camera or smartphone to capture the lights, as they may be too faint to see without assistance.

Remember, light pollution can greatly impact your ability to see the northern lights, especially in urban areas. For the best viewing experience, it’s essential to get away from city lights. A resource like DarkSiteFinder can help you locate areas with low light pollution for optimal aurora viewing.


Northern Lights Timing

Many are accustomed to the precise scheduling of weather events, from thunderstorms and winter weather to solar eclipses, where timing is crucial. It’s understandable, then, that there’s a desire for a similar pinpoint timing for the best viewing of the aurora. However, the reality of predicting the best time to view the northern lights is not so straightforward.

Here’s the deal: Unlike weather events driven by terrestrial conditions, the aurora is influenced by solar activity, which is far less predictable. We can estimate that the northern lights are best viewed from just after sunset to just before sunrise, provided the skies are dark and clear. Beyond that, precise timing for peak aurora activity is challenging to forecast with current technology.


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Space weather forecasting doesn't yet allow us to predict exactly when solar energy will impact Earth. We know it's coming, but how and when it interacts with our planet's magnetic field can vary. Often, we only have a few hours' notice before the solar energy is detected by satellites.

Furthermore, the intensity of the northern lights can fluctuate significantly over short periods. You might have noticed this variance if you've observed the lights before—periods of dim activity suddenly bursting into vibrant colors. This is due to the variable concentration of solar particles interacting with our atmosphere.

While we can inform you a few hours ahead when conditions are likely to be good, predicting the exact peak of aurora activity is akin to forecasting the peak of a meteor shower; we know the best night but not the best hour.


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Late Season Storms Bring a Slight Severe Risk for Southern Saskatchewan Tuesday Evening and Through Wednesday Morning

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As we continue later into September, it seems that summer is still hanging on, with some active weather this morning and into the afternoon and additional stronger severe storms beginning later this evening that will continue into Wednesday morning. The combined wind, hail, and tornado threat from the impending storms has resulted in a Slight Risk for a large portion of Southern Saskatchewan.


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The storms will start to develop as individual cells along the border in the early to mid-evening in Southwest Saskatchewan. This will be followed by a line of storms from south of the border that will make their way northward into the province later in the evening and into the overnight hours. A final round of storms is expected to arrive a few hours later, spreading much further north into Central Saskatchewan and weakening later into the morning. Due to the positioning of the low pressure that these storms will the centred around, areas closer to the Alberta border could see steady moderate rainfall lasting throughout Wednesday afternoon and evening.


These storms are expected to produce hail that could be larger than a toonie, along with damaging wind gusts upwards of 100km/h, and the possibility of one or two tornadoes. There is also the concern of localized flooding, particularly further west, where the storms and the subsequent extended period of rainfall could bring up to 100mm of rain.

Eyes to the Sky! Northern Lights Could Make an Appearance Across Canada on Monday

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A powerful solar flare, reaching an impressive X4.5 rating, erupted on Saturday, sending an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. This CME is expected to impact our planet, sparking geomagnetic storm conditions that could bring the northern lights much farther south than usual across Canada on Monday.

As with most space weather events, there is some uncertainty regarding the exact timing of the CME's arrival. According to the latest data, the strongest storm conditions are anticipated during the mid to late morning hours on Monday, gradually weakening throughout the day. This suggests the best viewing opportunity for the auroras may occur in the pre-dawn hours, particularly in Western Canada.


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However, this isn’t set in stone. Space weather forecasting can be tricky, and the CME might arrive later than expected, which would actually be the ideal outcome for North American skywatchers. A delayed arrival could mean a spectacular display of the northern lights over large portions of the country on Monday night.

The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) is forecasting a "strong" geomagnetic storm (G3 on a scale of 5) to develop sometime on Monday. A G3 storm is potent enough to make the northern lights visible across much of Canada, provided the conditions align just right.

Historically, storms of this strength have allowed auroras to be seen as far south as Southern Ontario, and sometimes even into northern parts of the United States. In fact, the SWPC mentions the possibility of auroras being visible as far south as Pennsylvania and Iowa.


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Based on the SWPC’s latest forecast, the geomagnetic storm is expected to peak between 5 AM and 11 AM EDT (2 AM to 8 AM PDT). A moderate (G2) storm is projected to continue through the day, potentially lasting until 11 PM EDT (8 PM PDT).

If this timing holds, the best chances to witness the northern lights would be in Western Canada during the early morning hours on Monday, when the storm is at its peak. Unfortunately, for those in Ontario and Quebec, the storm may hit after sunrise, reducing the likelihood of a good aurora display.

That said, if the CME arrives later in the day, it could extend the storm into Monday night, offering a better chance for Eastern Canada to catch the auroras, assuming clear skies.


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Speaking of skies, Monday night’s cloud forecast looks promising for much of Canada. The latest model shows most areas should have a good view, with only Southeastern Manitoba, Northwestern Ontario, and Northern Quebec facing potential cloud cover that might obscure the show.

Southern Saskatchewan and Northern Alberta may see patchy clouds but could have breaks offering decent aurora visibility. For Southern Ontario, Quebec, and most of Western Canada, skies are expected to remain clear.

Check out our free app, Instant Weather for a more in-depth cloud coverage forecast specific to your exact location.

Another potential issue will be the full moon leading to the possibility of the northern lights appearing more dim and harder to spot. However, if the storm is as strong as forecasted, there still should be some chance to capture the show despite the bright moon.


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Northern regions of Canada, especially Northern Quebec, the Prairies and British Columbia, are almost guaranteed to see the northern lights, except for areas in Southwestern BC near Vancouver where visibility is less certain.

Zooming into more southern regions, the likelihood of seeing auroras becomes more variable. Northeastern Ontario, including Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, and North Bay, along with Western and Northern Quebec, have a strong chance of aurora sightings.

In Central Ontario, places like Muskoka, Algonquin Park, Bancroft, and the Ottawa Valley also have a moderate chance, as do areas around Montreal. However, the timing of the storm’s arrival remains a key factor—if it’s delayed and peaks closer to sunset, a G3 storm would likely provide an opportunity for these regions to witness the lights.

In Southwestern Ontario, the Golden Horseshoe, and southern Quebec near the American border, the probability becomes more uncertain. There’s a low to slight chance of auroras being visible here, depending on whether the storm overperforms or peaks later in the night.


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It’s important to keep in mind that light pollution can drastically affect your ability to see the northern lights. Urban areas, in particular, can drown out the skies, so you’ll need to find a dark spot away from city lights for the best chance to see the show. A resource like DarkSiteFinder can help you locate areas with low light pollution for optimal aurora viewing.


Northern Lights Timing

Many are accustomed to the precise scheduling of weather events, from thunderstorms and winter weather to solar eclipses, where timing is crucial. It’s understandable, then, that there’s a desire for a similar pinpoint timing for the best viewing of the aurora. However, the reality of predicting the best time to view the northern lights is not so straightforward.

Here’s the deal: Unlike weather events driven by terrestrial conditions, the aurora is influenced by solar activity, which is far less predictable. We can estimate that the northern lights are best viewed from just after sunset to just before sunrise, provided the skies are dark and clear. Beyond that, precise timing for peak aurora activity is challenging to forecast with current technology.


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Space weather forecasting doesn't yet allow us to predict exactly when solar energy will impact Earth. We know it's coming, but how and when it interacts with our planet's magnetic field can vary. Often, we only have a few hours' notice before the solar energy is detected by satellites.

Furthermore, the intensity of the northern lights can fluctuate significantly over short periods. You might have noticed this variance if you've observed the lights before—periods of dim activity suddenly bursting into vibrant colors. This is due to the variable concentration of solar particles interacting with our atmosphere.

While we can inform you a few hours ahead when conditions are likely to be good, predicting the exact peak of aurora activity is akin to forecasting the peak of a meteor shower; we know the best night but not the best hour.


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Strong Risk for Severe Thunderstorms in Southeast Saskatchewan This Evening and Through Sunday Morning

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Southeastern Saskatchewan is in the crosshairs for severe weather once again, with some storms firing up along the American border later this evening followed by another round of strong storms early Sunday morning. The hail, wind, and tornado risk between the evening and morning storms makes this a Strong Risk along the southern border and a Slight Risk stretching through Southeast Saskatchewan and into East Central Saskatchewan.


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The activity will begin this evening with the development of supercell storms along the Montana border that will push northeastward through the late evening. These storms could be quite strong and will be followed by even more development from south of the border after midnight. This second round is expected to be more organized and bringing more widespread impacts as they follow the northeastward trend across Southeastern Saskatchewan through the morning.


These storms could be quite impactful with very large hail that will likely be golf ball-sized, possibly even larger, and widespread damaging wind gusts upwards of 120km/h, as well as one or two tornadoes. There is also the concern of localized flooding with heavy downpours that could bring up to 100mm of rain.

UPDATE: Isolated Strong Risk for Severe Storms in Southern Saskatchewan Beginning Wednesday Evening

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It will be another stormy day in Southern Saskatchewan on Wednesday, with active weather beginning later in the day and continuing through to Thursday morning. A combination of very large hail, damaging wind gusts and the possibility of tornadoes has led to us upgrading this forecast to a Strong risk, surrounded by a Slight Risk in the Southeastern region of the province.


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The storms are anticipated to start in the early evening Wednesday in the southwest as some isolated cells. These individual storms will quickly merge and become large clusters of storms that will move northeastward across Southern Saskatchewan throughout the rest of the evening and into the early morning hours of Thursday. The storms will become more organized as they move across the province, as well as becoming more intense, thus increasing the threat from Marginal, Slight and in an isolated area that includes Regina, a Strong risk.


The main threat from these storms will be the hail, with toonie to timbit size with isolated hail up to golf ball size, as well as damaging wind gusts that could exceed 100km/h. Heavy downpours will be associated with these storms and some areas, particularly in Southeast Saskatchewan, could see over 50mm of rainfall. There is also the risk of these storms producing one or two tornadoes so be sure to keep an eye out for watches and warning being issued by Environment Canada later in the day.

Slight Risk for Severe Storms in Southern Saskatchewan for Tuesday into Wednesday

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In a repeat of Monday, storms will be likely in Saskatchewan again Tuesday and continuing into early Wednesday. This time, however, the threat has increased to a slight risk across a large swath of Southern Saskatchewan which could see as much as 100mm of rain, the occasional wind gust exceeding 90km/h, up to toonie-size hail and the possibility of an isolated tornado.


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The initial storm activity is anticipated to start mid-afternoon Tuesday in the west with some isolated cells, but things will begin to ramp up as we approach the evening hours. This is when we expect these individual storm cells to begin to merge, creating clusters of storms that will push eastward across the southern half of the province throughout the evening and overnight and into the early morning hours of Wednesday.


The main threat from these storms will be the hail, with up to toonie-size likely, as well as wind gusts that could reach 100km/h. There is also the possibility of training thunderstorms, multiple storms that follow the same track, so flooding will be a concern as some areas could see up to 100mm of rain in only a few hours. It seems unlikely based on the data, but an isolated tornado can not be completely ruled out.