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A widespread risk of severe thunderstorms returns to Saskatchewan today with the arrival of a low pressure system that will track through the region. A warm front that will extend from the low is expected to trigger severe thunderstorms beginning this afternoon and continuing into overnight. The greatest risk for severe storms stretches from parts of Central Alberta through a large swatch of Central and Southern Saskatchewan, but there is also a chance for thunderstorms developing in the Foothills, which could become severe.

Thunderstorm development in the Foothills is expected to begin shortly after the lunch hour as isolated cells with further development possible throughout the afternoon and into the late evening. These isolated storms could have the potential to strengthen into severe supercell thunderstorms as they travel east-northeastward. The QE2 corridor between Red Deer and Calgary, in particular, could end up seeing some severe thunderstorms throughout the afternoon and evening, with the possibility of toonie-sized hail and wind gusts up to 90km/h.

***Simulated Radar from the HRRR model showing 6pm CST, Courtesy of Weatherbell.***

The thunderstorms further east, on the other hand, have a much greater chance of becoming severe, along with greater overall threats. As the warm front moves through the region, it is anticipated to trigger the development of severe thunderstorms along its entire length. This could begin as early as around noon, with storms continuing straight through into the overnight hours as the front tracks northeastward across Saskatchewan. The thunderstorms are expected to weaken later in the evening in the eastern half of the province, but there is the chance that the odd storm could maintain severe strength overnight.

One specific area that we will be monitoring will be along the Alberta border north to the Lloydminster and North Battleford area and from there, southeast to Regina. This is where the strongest of the storms will likely occur, which could possibly develop hail as large as golf balls, wind gusts in excess of 100km/h and potentially a tornado or two.