March 19, 2026

Winter Crashes the First Day of Spring, Snow and Ice to Disrupt Friday Commute in Southern Ontario

March 19, 2026/ Brennen Perry

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***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE***

With the official start of astronomical spring arriving on Friday, Southern Ontario is set to enter a weather roller coaster. It begins with a heavy burst of messy, mixed precipitation that could impact the Friday morning commute. At the same time, parts of Southwestern Ontario will welcome the first day of spring with double-digit temperatures, with some areas potentially flirting with the 20°C mark.

As temperatures begin to rise on Friday, a fast moving system will push across Southern Ontario ahead of the warmer air. With surface temperatures still below freezing early in the day, some of the precipitation will fall as snow, ice pellets, and even freezing rain.

While the heaviest precipitation will only last for a few hours, the timing could not be worse. It is expected to peak across Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe during the mid to late morning hours. This will likely create slippery road conditions right in the middle of the morning commute.

There is still some uncertainty when it comes to exact precipitation types, as temperatures will gradually rise through the day. In many areas, it will likely begin as snow, then transition to ice pellets, followed by a period of freezing rain, before eventually changing over to regular rain. South of Lake Simcoe, the main transition will be from ice pellets to freezing rain.

In higher elevations such as the Dundalk Highlands and the Oak Ridges Moraine, slightly cooler temperatures may allow freezing rain to last longer and become more impactful, with greater potential for ice accretion.

Across Central and Eastern Ontario, heavy snow from the late morning into the early afternoon is expected to lead to quick accumulation. Many areas could pick up around 10 cm, give or take 5 cm depending on how much mixing occurs, especially closer to Lake Simcoe and Lake Ontario. This snow is likely to fall rapidly within a 2 to 3 hour window, with snowfall rates exceeding 5 cm per hour at times. Expect brief whiteout conditions and fast accumulation while it is falling.

Precipitation is expected to move into Southwestern Ontario around sunrise, then gradually spread eastward into the Golden Horseshoe and Central Ontario by the late morning, roughly between 8 and 10 am. As it arrives, it will encounter a layer of cold air near the surface that will be slow to move out. This will help set up a swath of winter weather, with snow stretching from Muskoka into Eastern Ontario, and a mix of ice pellets and freezing rain developing around Lake Simcoe and into Peterborough.

More persistent freezing rain is likely across higher elevations northwest and north of the Greater Toronto Area. For areas closer to Lake Ontario and outside of the higher terrain, freezing rain will be more limited, generally lasting an hour or two during the mid to late morning before temperatures rise.

**HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE (CM)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The snow band moving through Muskoka, Peterborough, and into Eastern Ontario could be quite intense at times. Snowfall rates may briefly reach 3 to 6 cm per hour late in the morning into the early afternoon. Some of this precipitation may fall as ice pellets, which could reduce overall snow totals slightly.

As temperatures continue to rise, areas around the Greater Toronto Area should transition to regular rain by around midday. However, a corridor of freezing rain may develop from Barrie through Peterborough and into Kingston. This, combined with slushy snow, could result in very poor road conditions with icy patches.

Precipitation will gradually taper off through the afternoon, with Eastern Ontario likely being the last region to see it come to an end.

Temperatures will vary significantly across the region on Friday afternoon. Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Leamington, and Chatham, could surge well into the double digits and approach 20°C. Meanwhile, Central and Eastern Ontario may struggle to climb above the freezing mark.

The good news is that most areas expecting any notable ice accretion should see temperatures rise above freezing by the afternoon. This will help reduce the overall impact on tree branches and power lines, and also improve road conditions as the day goes on.

Overall impacts will vary quite a bit depending on location. Across Central and Eastern Ontario, the main story will be heavy snow. Accumulations are expected to range from 5 to 10 cm, with some areas potentially approaching 15 cm. This includes regions north of a line from Gravenhurst to Brockville, including Muskoka, Haliburton, Bancroft, Pembroke, Renfrew, Smiths Falls, Ottawa, and Cornwall.

South of this line, a narrow corridor from Simcoe County through Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough, and into Kingston will likely see a mix of everything. This includes a period of snow, followed by ice pellets, and finishing with some freezing rain. Total accumulation in this zone will range from 2 to 10 cm, with higher amounts toward the northern edge.

The most persistent freezing rain is expected across higher elevations, including areas such as Flesherton, Shelburne, Arthur, Fergus, Guelph, Orangeville, Vaughan, and Newmarket. These areas could see between 2 and 6 mm of ice accretion.

Closer to Lake Simcoe, including northern York Region into Durham Region, around 2 to 4 mm of icing is possible, along with some ice pellets.

Near the Lake Ontario shoreline, including the Greater Toronto Area into Hamilton, Kitchener, Perth, and Grey Bruce, freezing rain is expected to be brief. Most areas will see less than 2 mm of ice, and impacts should be limited as temperatures rise above freezing relatively quickly.

For areas along the Lake Huron and Lake Erie shorelines into Deep Southwestern Ontario, this system will stay primarily on the rain side, with little to no winter precipitation expected.

March 16, 2026

Winter Roars Back Across Southern Ontario Tuesday With Up to 30 cm of Snow and -20°C Wind Chills

March 16, 2026/ Brennen Perry

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It sure may have felt like winter was behind us for the first half of March, but the second half of the month will serve as a snowy and chilly reminder of what Mother Nature is still capable of across Ontario.

We certainly saw that over the past 24 hours in Northern Ontario, where some communities were buried under more than 50 cm of snow from a late-season winter storm. And over the next 24 hours, Southern Ontario will join them in sharing some of that snowy misery.

The system that brought the heavy snow to Northern Ontario has now begun to move out over Quebec. As it exits the region, it is set to usher in a blast of cold air late Monday evening into the overnight hours. That includes the return of a familiar word, snow squalls.

Moisture from a separate system tracking along the northeastern United States is expected to push into Eastern Ontario and areas around Lake Ontario starting Monday evening. With temperatures dropping quickly behind the departing system, that precipitation is likely to fall in the form of heavy snow.

That snow could become quite intense at times across Central and Eastern Ontario, with snowfall rates of 3 to 5 cm per hour in the heaviest pockets. While it should taper off by the early morning hours on Tuesday, just a few hours of that intensity could be enough to bring 10 to 20 cm by Tuesday morning in some communities.

Further west, plunging temperatures will combine with the now partially ice-free waters of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay to bring a brief resurgence of snow squall activity. While it will not last all day, these squalls could bring locally up to 20 to 30 cm of snow before they wrap up by late Tuesday afternoon. Wind gusts peaking Tuesday morning up to 50 to 70 km/h are likely to combine with the snow squall activity to produce blowing snow and potentially disruptive travel in the snowbelt areas.

Aside from the snow, Tuesday will start off on a very chilly note with wind chills dropping below -20°C in some areas during the morning hours.

**Hourly snowfall rates (cm)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Precipitation has already begun to spread into Eastern Ontario as of early Monday evening and is expected to continue increasing in intensity over the next several hours. The worst conditions are likely to occur around midnight, when snowfall rates could approach 3 to 5 cm per hour, especially between Peterborough and Kingston.

While this will only last for a few hours, that kind of snowfall in such a short timeframe is likely to make travel difficult during the overnight hours as road crews struggle to keep up. The snowfall intensity appears lighter further east around Cornwall and Ottawa, where totals will be more limited.

Lake effect activity is also expected to begin organizing, starting with Lake Huron. There is still some uncertainty around the Georgian Bay component. The system affecting Eastern Ontario could track far enough west to influence wind direction off Georgian Bay, which may delay or even limit the onset of snow squalls in that region.

By the early morning hours of Tuesday, Eastern Ontario will see the steady snowfall taper off as it shifts into Quebec.

Instead, the focus will turn to strengthening lake effect activity off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Again, there is some disagreement on how intense the Georgian Bay squall will become. If it does develop properly, it appears most likely to focus somewhere along the Midland to Orillia corridor.

The Lake Huron activity will initially target Bruce and Grey counties, at times extending into northern Huron and Perth counties, along with portions of Wellington and Dufferin counties.

Another major concern is that this lake effect activity will be accompanied by gusts approaching 50 to 70 km/h at times, especially near the shoreline and in flat, exposed areas. That can lead to significant reductions in visibility due to blowing snow and may even briefly meet blizzard criteria in some areas east of Lake Huron.

It is very likely that the usual roads vulnerable to blowing snow across Grey Bruce, Huron and Perth counties may need to be shut down for a period of time on Tuesday. Expect significant delays and consider avoiding travel if possible, especially during the morning and early afternoon.

Heading into Tuesday afternoon, the winds fueling the lake effect activity are expected to gradually diminish, starting with Georgian Bay. That will likely allow any activity off Georgian Bay to slowly fizzle out by early afternoon.

For Lake Huron, the activity is likely to drift south of Grey Bruce and focus more on portions of Huron and Perth counties. It may persist for several hours through the afternoon before weakening closer to the dinner hour.

If the snowfall is not enough to set the winter mood, it will certainly feel like it as a surge of Arctic air settles over Southern Ontario overnight into Tuesday.

Many areas are expected to drop below -10°C by Tuesday morning. With the wind chill, it could feel closer to -25°C in some locations, especially east of Lake Huron into Central Ontario and parts of Northeastern Ontario.

As is usually the case with lake effect snow, it can be very difficult to pinpoint the hardest hit regions. These snow bands can be narrow and highly localized, meaning one community could see significant accumulation while another just down the road sees very little.

With that in mind, the heaviest snowfall totals are most likely somewhere in the Port Elgin, Hanover, Minto, Mildmay, Kincardine, Point Clark and Wingham zones. We are forecasting 20 to 30 cm in this corridor, but there is a chance that localized areas could see as much as 35 to 40 cm if a band locks in place for several hours.

Surrounding areas, including Goderich, Clinton, Exeter, Mitchell, Stratford, Listowel, Arthur, Flesherton, Meaford, Chatsworth, Owen Sound, Wiarton and Lion’s Head could see around 10 to 20 cm. Some of these communities may fall short of that depending on how far inland the lake effect bands extend and how long they persist.

For the Georgian Bay squall, we are forecasting 10 to 20 cm for Midland, Orillia and Washago. Barrie sits right on the line and could go either way. If 10 cm or more falls in Barrie, it would most likely be in the north end, with lesser amounts toward the south. Should the Georgian Bay activity exceed expectations and organize more than current guidance suggests, localized pockets of 25 to 30 cm cannot be completely ruled out. However, it could just as easily struggle to reach 10 cm.

In Eastern Ontario, the system is expected to deliver a general 10 to 15 cm in locations including Peterborough, Belleville, Kingston, Bancroft, Deep River, Renfrew and Pembroke. Some areas, especially north of Lake Ontario between Peterborough and Kingston, may pick up closer to 20 cm where the heaviest snowfall rates set up overnight.

Less than 10 cm is expected for Ottawa, Cornwall and Brockville as these areas are likely to see lighter and less intense snowfall from this system. The same applies to Muskoka and Parry Sound, where 5 to 10 cm is possible.

Lower amounts are expected in the Greater Toronto Area, extending into Hamilton and the Niagara region. Around 2 to 5 cm of snow is expected, mainly during the evening on Monday.

Less than 2 cm is expected for Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham and Sarnia, where this system will have very limited impact.

March 14, 2026

Up to 100 cm of Snow Possible as Blockbuster Winter Storm Targets Northern Ontario Starting Sunday With Blizzard Conditions and Ice Storm Risk

March 14, 2026/ Brennen Perry

A powerful and complex storm system is set to impact Ontario beginning Sunday and continuing into early next week. While Southern Ontario will mainly deal with a messy mix of precipitation and rain for much of the event, the situation will be far more serious across parts of Northeastern Ontario, where extremely heavy snowfall, strong winds, and freezing rain could create dangerous travel conditions.

The system will evolve in several phases as it tracks through the region. Snow will initially spread into Northeastern Ontario on Sunday before an influx of warm air begins pushing northward and creating a zone of freezing rain. As the storm gradually moves out of the region on Monday, attention will then turn to the potential for lake effect snow developing late Monday into Tuesday.

Snow will begin spreading into Northeastern Ontario from the southwest during the morning and early afternoon hours on Sunday. At first, the snow may be somewhat light and patchy as the leading edge of the system arrives, but conditions will steadily deteriorate through the afternoon as more intense bands move into the region.

These bands will become particularly strong late Sunday afternoon and evening as the storm reaches peak intensity. Within the heaviest bands, snowfall rates could exceed 5 cm per hour. These intense bursts of snow will quickly overwhelm roads and dramatically reduce visibility.

Strong winds will also play a major role in this storm. Wind gusts of 60 to 90 km/h are expected to develop Sunday afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. When combined with the intense snowfall, these winds will lead to widespread blowing snow and periods of blizzard conditions.

Travel could quickly become extremely hazardous across parts of Northeastern Ontario. Visibility may frequently drop to near zero in the heaviest snow bands and blowing snow. There is a strong likelihood that highways could become impassable at times, and widespread highway closures are possible in the hardest hit regions.

Looking at the snowfall totals, the highest accumulations are expected across parts of central Northeastern Ontario. Areas stretching from Sault Ste. Marie, through Chapleau, Timmins and Kirkland Lake could see between 60 and 100 cm of snow.

Totals will gradually drop off to the north as the core of the system remains farther south. This means communities such as Wawa, Kapuskasing and Cochrane could see between 40 and 60 cm of snow by the time the storm begins to wind down.

Farther south, the story becomes more complicated as ice pellets and freezing rain begin mixing in and reducing snowfall totals. A narrow corridor from Elliot Lake to Temiskaming Shores is currently expected to see between 40 and 60 cm of snow before the changeover occurs.

For areas from Espanola through Sudbury, snowfall totals will likely be closer to 25 to 40 cm. North Bay is expected to see around 10 to 15 cm of snow, most of which will fall during the afternoon on Sunday, before precipitation transitions over to ice pellets and freezing rain.

While snowfall will gradually lighten during the day on Monday across Northeastern Ontario, conditions may still remain difficult in many areas due to deep snow on the ground and lingering blowing snow.

While heavy snow dominates the northern portion of the storm, the next major concern will be the development of freezing rain as warmer air begins pushing northward Sunday evening.

The leading edge of the system will first sweep across Southern Ontario early Sunday, bringing a light mix of wet snow, freezing rain and ice pellets. This initial wave is not expected to produce significant accumulation, but it could still create slippery road conditions during the morning and afternoon as it moves through.

Behind this initial batch of precipitation, much warmer air will surge northward into Southern Ontario through Sunday afternoon and evening. This will transition most areas over to plain rain while the storm continues to produce heavy snow farther north.

As this warm air pushes into the colder air mass across Northeastern Ontario, it will create a corridor favourable for freezing rain. By Sunday evening, a swath of freezing rain is expected to develop, extending from Manitoulin Island through the North Bay region.

Through the late evening and overnight hours, this freezing rain zone is expected to gradually spread northward. Communities, including Elliot Lake and Sudbury, could transition from heavy snow to freezing rain by late Sunday evening.

Within this corridor, freezing rain could become quite significant in some areas, with ice accretion totals potentially reaching 10 to 20 mm. That may lead to power outages and tree damage, especially with the strong wind gusts.

Freezing rain may continue through much of the overnight period and into the morning hours on Monday before temperatures gradually begin to rise.

Across Southern Ontario, the story will shift again on Monday as milder air remains in place for much of the day.

Scattered rain showers and even a few thunderstorms are possible across parts of the region on Monday. However, temperatures may begin to cool later in the day, which could allow precipitation to transition back to snow in some areas.

Exactly how much snow may develop during this transition remains uncertain. A separate detailed forecast will be issued for Southern Ontario once forecast models provide better clarity on how persistent this snow could be and whether meaningful accumulation is likely.

One additional feature we will be watching closely is the potential for lake effect snow developing late Monday into Tuesday.

As colder air moves back into the region behind the storm system, lake effect snow bands could begin forming off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. These bands may bring an additional 10 to 20 cm of snow to parts of the traditional snowbelt regions, depending on how long they persist.

March 12, 2026

Winter Makes a Comeback Friday with Up to 15cm of Snow Possible Across Southern Ontario

March 12, 2026/ Brennen Perry

While we started off the week with a taste of spring-like weather across Southern Ontario, with widespread double-digit temperatures and even readings soaring near 20°C in some areas, the end of the week will bring us back to reality. And that reality is that winter is far from finished!

An Alberta Clipper is set to slide across the region starting Friday morning and persist throughout much of the day. This system is expected to bring a few hours of heavier snowfall with hourly rates approaching 2 to 3cm through parts of Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe.

That rapid accumulation is expected to occur during the late morning and early afternoon hours, which unfortunately lines up with a very busy time of day. This will set up messy conditions just in time for the afternoon commute, especially on untreated roads and highways.

Drivers should be prepared for rapidly changing conditions with snow quickly covering roads in areas that experience the heavier bursts.

This heavy snow will also be accompanied by strengthening winds with gusts approaching 50 to 70 km/h across many areas. Even stronger gusts are expected around Lake Huron, where some locations could see gusts approaching 80 km/h.

Those strong winds combined with the falling snow will likely create near zero visibility at times on the roads due to blowing snow. In some exposed rural areas, there could even be localized blizzard conditions developing for a time, particularly where open farmland allows the wind to easily pick up and blow the snow around.

Once the system wraps up late Friday into early Saturday morning, most of Southern Ontario will be looking at around 10 to 15cm of fresh snow. That will bring back a familiar winter landscape that was wiped out in many areas thanks to the warm temperatures earlier this week.

The first bands of snow are expected to begin working their way into Southwestern Ontario from the west just after sunrise on Friday morning.

That means locations around Lake Huron will likely be the first to experience the steady snowfall. The snow should start out fairly light early in the morning before gradually increasing in intensity.

For Deep Southwestern Ontario around the Windsor and Chatham area, it looks like they will be sitting right near the freezing mark. These areas could start off with some flurries during the pre-dawn hours, but little accumulation is expected.

As temperatures rise above freezing through the morning hours, precipitation will likely switch over to rain by the late morning, which will limit any snowfall accumulation in this region.

That swath of snow will pick up intensity through the late morning with it spreading eastward into the Greater Toronto Area and regions around Lake Simcoe by around the noon hour. As this occurs, snowfall rates are expected to increase across parts of the region.

It appears that an area of elevated snowfall rates approaching 2 to 3cm per hour could briefly set up in regions east of Lake Huron and into the Golden Horseshoe. Even though this intense snowfall would only last for a few hours, it could still lead to some rapid accumulation in a short period of time.

That burst of heavier snow could lead to some quickly deteriorating road conditions leading up to the afternoon commute and make for some slushy and snow covered roads.

It should be mentioned that temperatures in many of these areas will be sitting very close to the freezing mark. Because of that, it is possible that accumulation may not be as efficient as it would be during colder snowfall events.

Some of the snow may melt as it falls or shortly after reaching the ground, especially on roadways that were warmed by the recent mild weather.

We may even see some mixing along the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shoreline, especially toward the mid to late afternoon hours when temperatures may briefly creep above freezing.

**wind gusts (km/h)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Another big factor that will enhance the impact of what would normally be considered a fairly uneventful snowfall event is the wind.

Earlier forecast data suggested much stronger and more widespread wind gusts, but recent model runs have toned those values down somewhat.

Even with that reduction, winds are still expected to be quite gusty with gusts near 50 to 70 km/h across Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe. Closer to Lake Huron those gusts could approach 80 km/h at times.

Given the heavier snowfall rates of 2 to 3cm per hour at times, these gusts will likely lead to near zero visibility in some areas with widespread blowing and drifting snow developing.

There could even be some localized blizzard conditions east of Lake Huron, which is particularly vulnerable due to its exposed rural roads and open terrain. In these areas, snow can easily be picked up by the wind and blown across roadways, quickly reducing visibility and creating hazardous driving conditions.

Road closures cannot be ruled out in some of the more exposed locations, especially if blowing snow becomes intense during the peak of the storm.

Heading into the late afternoon hours, the snow will have spread into Central and Eastern Ontario, where it is expected to persist into the evening. Some of the areas further east may not see the snow fully taper off until early Saturday morning as the system gradually exits the region.

It appears that the overall intensity of the snow will slowly decrease by the evening hours, with snowfall rates closer to 1 to 2cm per hour in many areas.

The heaviest pockets during the evening appear to be focused on areas north of Lake Ontario such as York Region, Durham Region, Kawartha Lakes and Peterborough before eventually moving into parts of Eastern Ontario after the dinner hour. Hourly snowfall rates in these areas could still briefly exceed 2cm at times through the evening before gradually easing overnight.

For Southwestern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area along the Lake Ontario shoreline, rising temperatures near the shoreline will likely lead to a switch from snow to rain by the late afternoon and early evening. This changeover will help limit snowfall totals closer to the lakes.

Another wave of light snow may move in from the west late in the evening and into the overnight hours as colder air flows in behind the departing system. However, this additional snow is not expected to produce significant accumulation.

We are also watching the evening hours closely for Deep Southwestern Ontario, where stronger wind gusts may develop just before midnight.

There is the potential for gusts reaching 80 to 90 km/h for areas such as Windsor, Chatham and Sarnia.

It is even possible that a few isolated severe wind gusts exceeding 90 km/h could occur in localized areas if the strongest winds are able to mix down to the surface.

Overall, we are looking at general snowfall amounts of 10 to 15cm across much of Southern Ontario by Saturday morning.

A few pockets, especially in higher elevation areas like northwest of the Greater Toronto Area and the Dundalk Highlands, could see localized totals approaching 20cm thanks to slightly colder temperatures that will allow snow to accumulate more efficiently.

The 10 to 15cm zone includes Goderich, Kincardine, Owen Sound, Wiarton, Tobermory, Hanover, Orangeville, Kitchener, Guelph, Newmarket, Barrie, Collingwood, Midland, Orillia, Bracebridge, Parry Sound, Huntsville, Peterborough, Bancroft, Pembroke, Renfrew, Smiths Falls and Ottawa.

Slightly lower totals of 5 to 10cm are expected from London into the Niagara region and around the Greater Toronto Area near the Lake Ontario shoreline, continuing east into Kingston and up along the St. Lawrence River.

Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing in this corridor, especially during the afternoon hours, which could reduce the ability for snow to accumulate and even allow some rain to mix in at times.

That includes Grand Bend, London, St. Thomas, Tillsonburg, Niagara Falls, Hamilton, Mississauga, Toronto, Oshawa, Belleville, Picton, Kingston, Brockville and Cornwall.

To the north, lower snowfall totals of 5 to 10cm are also expected in locations such as Algonquin Park, Deep River, North Bay, Sudbury and Elliot Lake. This is mainly because the heavier precipitation bands are expected to stay south of these regions.

Around 2 to 5cm is expected for Sarnia and Chatham as they see rain for much of the event, with less than 2cm likely for the Windsor and Leamington area, where temperatures remain warm enough for precipitation to fall primarily as rain.

March 10, 2026

Major Ice Storm Targeting Ottawa Area Wednesday, Up to 25mm of Freezing Rain Threatens Power Outages Across Central and Eastern Ontario

March 10, 2026/ Brennen Perry

A complex weather story is set to unfold across Southern Ontario over the next 24 hours as cold and warm air clash across the region while a moisture-laden system moves through.

The biggest impact will come in the form of a concerning prolonged ice storm event across parts of Central and Eastern Ontario. In some areas, this freezing rain could be nearly non-stop for much of Wednesday, leading to up to 24 hours of persistent icing. The worst of the freezing rain is expected to begin overnight Tuesday and continue into Wednesday morning, with a second round arriving later in the day.

The Ottawa Valley and northern sections of Eastern and Central Ontario appear likely to take the brunt of the ice storm, with up to 15-25mm of ice accretion possible. That amount of ice is more than enough to cause substantial damage to infrastructure, raising the threat of widespread and potentially prolonged power outages that may last for days or even weeks.

To make matters worse, some of those hardest hit areas may remain below freezing for the entire duration of the event before temperatures plunge even further late Wednesday as colder air floods in behind the system. This would lock in the ice accretion and allow it to continue weighing down trees and power lines for the foreseeable future. Stronger winds gusting in excess of 50 km/h early Thursday could add additional strain and prompt even more power outages.

For other parts of Southern Ontario, the story will be some noisy nocturnal thunderstorms moving in early Wednesday morning from Michigan. While these storms should remain sub-severe for the most part, they could still produce strong wind gusts that may briefly reach marginally severe levels in a few pockets. Another concern is that this rain could further exacerbate the ongoing spring flooding that is already leading to higher water levels in many watersheds, with widespread 15–30mm of additional rainfall on tap.

After this system moves out, we are set to enter a cooler and more active pattern beginning with a potential snowy system on Friday. Confidence remains fairly low in the exact setup, and some mixing could reduce snowfall totals, especially near the shorelines of Lake Ontario and Lake Huron. However, it could still deliver a widespread 5-15cm of snow, bringing back a snowy landscape that has been melted away in many areas over the past few days.

Current indications suggest the leading edge of the system will begin to move into Southwestern Ontario around or just after midnight. That will arrive in the form of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms stretching across Lake Huron. These storms are actually part of a larger line that merged from earlier severe activity over Illinois and Indiana, where a severe weather outbreak is underway Tuesday evening.

However, by the time these storms reach our region, and especially given that they will need to travel over the cold waters of Lake Huron, we expect they will have weakened considerably by landfall.

There is still an outside chance that a few embedded cells could remain strong enough to produce a marginal wind threat, particularly around Windsor and Sarnia, but that scenario remains very questionable.

Regardless of their strength, these storms will likely wake many residents up overnight thanks to frequent lightning and very heavy downpours.

Further north, the system will encounter a pocket of below-freezing temperatures over the Bruce Peninsula. With warm air in place above the surface, this will allow a swath of freezing rain to develop starting over the Northern Bruce Peninsula and spreading eastward into areas east of Georgian Bay during the pre-dawn hours.

This icing could be quite heavy at times and may even feature some embedded lightning. Across the Sudbury and North Bay areas, precipitation should initially remain on the snow side with some ice pellets mixed in.

In advance of the system, we may also see some scattered freezing drizzle develop late Tuesday evening and continue into the overnight hours across parts of Central and Eastern Ontario.

That swath of freezing rain will continue to progress eastward, with the freezing line roughly located from Bracebridge to Brockville.

Locations just to the south of this line, such as Midland, Orillia, Lindsay and Peterborough, may begin with some freezing rain, but precipitation should quickly transition over to rain as the warmer air advances northward through the mid-morning hours.

This setup will allow the most intense icing to occur from Parry Sound through Huntsville and into Bancroft just before sunrise. It should be noted that some northern sections, such as Algonquin Park, Pembroke and Sundridge, could remain just cold enough to keep some precipitation falling as ice pellets before reaching the ground. This would delay the onset of icing somewhat and reduce overall ice accretion in those locations.

Meanwhile, the line of thunderstorms will continue tracking through Southwestern Ontario, slowly weakening as it approaches the Golden Horseshoe while still producing lightning and heavy rain. This rainfall could be quite intense at times and may lead to rapid accumulation, putting further strain on already saturated watersheds due to ongoing spring runoff. That could trigger additional flooding in some low-lying areas.

By mid-morning, the heavy freezing rain is expected to move into the Ottawa Valley, where it may persist through the late morning hours, bringing rapid ice accretion. Travel could quickly become treacherous for the morning commute in the Ottawa area, and within a few hours, the accumulating ice will likely begin taking a toll on the power grid.

We may also see the freezing rain line nudge northward into North Bay and Sudbury as warmer air aloft continues to expand northward despite the colder air at the surface remaining stubborn.

For the southern parts of Central Ontario, such as Bracebridge, Haliburton and Kawartha Lakes, it appears the warm air will eventually be able to overcome the cold air near the surface. This would allow these areas to escape the worst impacts, although they remain right on the line. If the cold air proves more stubborn than expected, it could keep these areas in freezing rain for several additional hours.

That will likely not be the case farther north across Central and Eastern Ontario, including much of the Ottawa Valley, where models suggest the freezing line will stall to the south.

There remains some disagreement among the models regarding exactly how far north the warmer air will be able to advance. The best chance for temperatures to rise above freezing appears to be along the St. Lawrence River and southeast of Ottawa.

While precipitation should briefly lighten to drizzle by early afternoon as the first round moves into Quebec, additional steady precipitation will begin advancing from the southwest. This second round appears less intense than the first and will likely be light to moderate rather than a continuous downpour of freezing rain.

That precipitation should reach the Ottawa Valley by late Wednesday afternoon, with persistent freezing rain potentially continuing through the evening and into the early morning hours of Thursday. However, the precipitation should become more scattered after midnight, gradually tapering off to drizzle.

Some parts of the Ottawa Valley may briefly rise above freezing, particularly near the southern edge of the ice storm risk around Bancroft, Smiths Falls and Cornwall. If that occurs, it would reduce the overall impact in these areas, although the temperature gradient will be extremely tight.

The hardest hit regions for freezing rain are expected to encompass a large portion of Eastern Ontario along the Quebec border and into the Ottawa Valley. In these areas, total ice accretion is likely to range from 15 to 25mm with localized amounts approaching 30mm.

That includes Ottawa, Hawkesbury, Alexandria, Carleton Place, Perth, Arnprior, Renfrew, Cloyne, Bancroft, Haliburton, Barry’s Bay and Pembroke.

However, keep in mind that actual surface accretion may end up somewhat lower since a large portion of the precipitation will fall during a short timeframe. Some of it may drip off surfaces before it has time to fully freeze when it arrives in heavy bursts.

Another major factor will be whether any areas are able to briefly climb above the freezing mark during the afternoon before the arrival of the second wave of precipitation. If that occurs, some of the earlier ice could melt away and make the second round far less efficient when it comes to additional ice accretion.

That is why this event could easily end up being far less damaging than currently forecast if temperatures trend just slightly warmer. There is often very little middle ground when it comes to ice storms, which is why there is such a tight gradient in our forecast ice totals.

Current projections suggest around 10-15mm of ice for northern sections of Central Ontario, including Parry Sound, Burk’s Falls, Huntsville, Algonquin Park and Deep River. This also extends into the Northern Bruce Peninsula. The slightly lower ice totals are due to temperatures potentially rising near Georgian Bay before the arrival of the second round of precipitation, along with the possibility of ice pellets mixing in farther north.

A similar situation may occur just south of the core ice storm zone, including Apsley, Kaladar, Smiths Falls, Kemptville and Cornwall. We expect the freezing line to eventually reach these areas by the afternoon, shutting off the freezing rain threat and substantially limiting the overall impact compared to locations farther north.

Further south, we are expecting around 5-10mm of ice from Bracebridge through Havelock, Tweed and into Morrisburg. Again, these areas should eventually rise above freezing, which will limit the impact mainly to the morning hours when icing is most persistent.

Across the Midland and Gravenhurst to Fenelon Falls corridor extending eastward toward Brockville, freezing rain should be more brief, primarily during the morning hours, leading to roughly 2-5mm of icing at most. We may also see around 2mm of icing in the higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands, including Orangeville and Shelburne and extending into the Blue Mountains, although it remains uncertain if temperatures will be cold enough here for significant icing.

Very little icing is expected once you reach Lake Simcoe and areas stretching toward Kingston along the Lake Ontario shoreline. This includes Orillia, Lindsay, Peterborough and Belleville. There may be a brief one to two-hour window of freezing rain early in the morning, but temperatures should quickly rise above freezing. Less than 2mm of ice accretion is expected.

**max wind gusts (km/h)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

While the freezing rain should taper off overnight Wednesday, the impacts may continue into Thursday in areas where earlier ice accretion remains locked in place as temperatures drop once again overnight. Ice-covered trees and power lines will remain vulnerable to wind due to the additional weight from the ice.

Unfortunately, stronger wind gusts could develop early Thursday morning with gusts potentially reaching 60-80 km/h in parts of Eastern Ontario. If significant ice remains in place, that would be a recipe for substantial damage to the power grid.

It also does not appear that the ice will be melting anytime soon. The pattern into next week looks to feature mostly below freezing temperatures across Eastern Ontario with wind chills dropping into the negative teens. That could make for dangerous conditions if widespread power outages occur and many homes are left without heat.

**rainfall totals (mm)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As for rainfall totals, we are expecting generally around 15-30mm across Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe. Localized pockets could see up to 50mm thanks to persistent thunderstorm activity, particularly along the Lake Erie shoreline.

Looking ahead to Friday, we are also monitoring a potential widespread snowfall event across much of Southern Ontario.

There is still considerable uncertainty regarding who may see the heaviest snowfall due to the potential for rain mixing in depending on the exact track of the system. However, current indications suggest the heaviest snow could fall across Central and Eastern Ontario, where up to 5-15cm may accumulate throughout the day on Friday.

With Eastern Ontario likely still recovering from the ice storm, that snowfall could add even more weight to already weakened trees and infrastructure. This may lead to another round of falling branches and potentially additional power outages.

More details on Friday’s system will be provided in a separate forecast later this week.

March 09, 2026

Damaging Ice Storm Risk for Ottawa, Eastern and Central Ontario Tuesday Night Into Wednesday

March 09, 2026/ Brennen Perry

Over the past few days, Southern Ontario has been treated to an early taste of spring-like weather. Temperatures soared well into the double digits across many areas, and some locations even managed to hit the 20°C mark for the first time this season.

After experiencing such a dramatic warm-up, it’s hard to imagine how quickly we could be plunging right back into the grip of winter. But it’s important to remember that we are only in early March. This time of year is well known for dramatic swings in the weather, and that reality will become very apparent across Central and Eastern Ontario over the next couple of days.

A moisture-packed system is set to slide through Southern Ontario beginning late Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday. This system will bring a wide variety of weather conditions depending on where you are located, ranging from heavy rain and thunderstorms in the south to a prolonged freezing rain threat further north and east.

Those in Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe will continue to enjoy the milder temperatures in the double digits on Tuesday and Wednesday. With temperatures remaining well above freezing in these areas, the main focus will be on periods of heavy rain along with the potential for some thunderstorm activity.

With snowmelt already well underway or even complete following the recent warmth, this additional rainfall could further exacerbate ongoing flooding concerns in some areas. Localized flooding in low-lying areas and near rivers and creeks will remain something to watch closely through midweek.

Further north, this system is likely to encounter some colder air that will become entrenched across Central and Eastern Ontario. This will create a very sharp temperature divide across the province, with areas to the south seeing spring-like conditions while areas further north sit much closer to the freezing mark or even slightly below.

These below-freezing surface temperatures combined with warm air aloft will provide the perfect setup for freezing rain. Multiple waves of precipitation are expected to move through the region, creating the potential for a prolonged freezing rain event.

This pocket of cold air appears like it may become quite entrenched, particularly across Eastern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley. As a result, some areas could be dealing with freezing rain for 12-24 hours or even longer if the cold air proves stubborn enough to hold on.

If this scenario plays out, it could lead to ice accretion totals of at least 10mm with localized pockets potentially exceeding 25mm. Amounts like this would be more than enough to result in crippling impacts across parts of Eastern Ontario, including tree damage, widespread power outages and extremely hazardous driving conditions.

The worst icing currently appears likely to arrive in two waves. The first wave is expected to impact Central and Eastern Ontario overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

Later in the day on Wednesday, a second round of precipitation will move through during the late afternoon and evening hours. By this point, areas across Central Ontario and the southern portions of Eastern Ontario may have risen above the freezing mark, which would limit their impacts mostly to the morning hours.

There remains some uncertainty regarding whether the warmer air will be able to overcome the cold air at the surface during the afternoon on Wednesday. If temperatures manage to climb even slightly above freezing for a few hours in the Ottawa Valley, it could make a huge difference.

Even a brief period of above-freezing temperatures would allow some of the ice from the first wave to begin melting before the second round arrives. That could significantly reduce the risk of this becoming a truly destructive ice storm.

This detail will be particularly important because temperatures are expected to plunge again later Wednesday and could remain below freezing for at least the next few days. If no melting occurs beforehand, all of that accumulated ice would remain locked in place and could lead to prolonged impacts on trees and the power grid.

Before the main system arrives, some scattered showers and drizzle may begin developing on Tuesday afternoon across parts of Southern Ontario. Most areas should remain above freezing, but a small pocket along the northern edge of Central Ontario, including Huntsville, Algonquin Park and Pembroke, could be sitting very close to the freezing mark.

If that happens, some of the drizzle could freeze on contact with surfaces during the afternoon and evening hours ahead of the main system. While any ice accumulation should remain fairly minimal, it could still create some slick road conditions and add a thin layer of ice before the heavier precipitation arrives overnight.

The first wave of heavier precipitation is expected to slide into Southern Ontario from the west just after midnight Tuesday night. It will then continue spreading eastward through the overnight hours and into early Wednesday morning.

For Southwestern Ontario, it could end up being a rather noisy night. Some nocturnal thunderstorms may move through, especially closer to the Lake Huron and Lake Erie shorelines.

Despite the thunderstorms, temperatures in this region will remain well above freezing, so there are no concerns for freezing rain here.

Further north and east, however, colder air closer to the freezing mark will likely be found along the higher elevations near the Golden Horseshoe, including the Dundalk Highlands. This colder air will extend into Central and Eastern Ontario from around Lake Simcoe through Peterborough and into Kingston.

Models are still disagreeing on just how extensive this below-freezing pocket will be. Some guidance keeps it fairly localized to the Dundalk Highlands, including areas like Orangeville and Shelburne.

Other models suggest a few hours of freezing rain could extend across a much larger area, including parts of the northern GTA, Simcoe County, Peterborough and Kingston.

Regardless of how far south the freezing rain extends, it is expected to be fairly short-lived in these areas as temperatures should rise above freezing by the late morning hours on Wednesday, switching precipitation over to plain rain.

The primary problem area continues to look like a corridor stretching from the Bruce Peninsula through Muskoka, Haliburton, Bancroft and into the Ottawa Valley.

Current indications suggest the cold air will hold on much longer in this region, and in the case of the Ottawa Valley, temperatures may struggle to rise above freezing at all throughout the day on Wednesday.

As a heavy pocket of freezing rain moves through, starting across Central Ontario during the mid-morning hours and reaching the Ottawa Valley by late morning, substantial ice accretion could begin to build quickly.

Precipitation rates may become quite heavy at times, which adds another layer of uncertainty when it comes to ice accumulation. During intense bursts of freezing rain, some of the liquid can drip off surfaces before it has time to freeze.

Even so, conditions are expected to become treacherous through the morning and into the early afternoon across parts of Central and Eastern Ontario. Ice will rapidly build up on tree branches, power lines and other exposed surfaces.

**ESTIMATED TEMP** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

One of the biggest challenges with forecasting freezing rain events is that the setup requires a very specific temperature profile. If models are off by even a single degree, it can dramatically change the outcome.

Just a small temperature difference can mean the difference between a crippling ice storm and a much less impactful rainfall event.

This system is no exception. There are some subtle but important differences between the model solutions that could significantly alter the final outcome.

Most models show above freezing temperatures gradually pushing northward into Central and Eastern Ontario beginning late Wednesday morning and into the early afternoon. The key question is how far north the warmer air will be able to penetrate.

The American model is the most aggressive with the warm air, pushing the freezing line as far north as Bancroft and even Ottawa. If that scenario occurs, locations including Muskoka, Haliburton, Smiths Falls, Brockville, Cornwall and parts of Ottawa could briefly rise above freezing and bring an end to the freezing rain threat by early afternoon.

The Canadian model, on the other hand, keeps the cold air much more entrenched across the Ottawa Valley. In that scenario, temperatures remain below freezing through the afternoon, which would allow freezing rain to continue and prevent any earlier ice accumulation from melting away.

Even if some areas do briefly rise above freezing during the afternoon, that warm-up will likely be short-lived.

Colder air is expected to wrap back into the system as a second round of precipitation moves through Central and Eastern Ontario during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Current indications suggest the mixing line may set up somewhere around Muskoka, extending eastward through Bancroft and into the Brockville area.

This would allow another swath of heavy freezing rain to develop across the Ottawa Valley, which could add even more ice accumulation and further amplify impacts during the evening hours. This should taper off around midnight, switching to light snow overnight into Thursday morning.

For Southwestern Ontario, there is also the possibility of some freezing rain or snow mixing in toward the later part of Wednesday as colder air wraps in behind the departing system. At this point, however, any wintry precipitation in the southwest is not expected to be significant.

When it comes to the hardest hit areas, we are currently looking at ice storm level impacts potentially developing across much of Eastern Ontario. This includes communities such as Ottawa, Hawkesbury, Alexandria, Cornwall, Kemptville, Carleton Place, Smiths Falls, Perth, Arnprior, Renfrew, Bancroft, Pembroke, Barry’s Bay, Haliburton and Minden.

General ice accretion across this region could range from 10 to 25mm with localized pockets, especially east of Ottawa, closer to the Quebec border, potentially exceeding 25mm.

As mentioned earlier, locations along the southern edge of this zone, including Perth, Smiths Falls, Kemptville and Cornwall, could see somewhat lower ice totals if temperatures briefly rise above freezing during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Outside of the ice storm zone, prolonged freezing rain is still expected across much of Central and Eastern Ontario, roughly north of a line from Orillia to Brockville.

This includes areas such as Brockville, Westport, Kaladar, Havelock, Fenelon Falls, Gravenhurst, Bracebridge, Huntsville, Parry Sound, Burk’s Falls and Sundridge.

Ice accretion in these areas will likely range from 5 to 15mm, with most of the accumulation occurring during the morning hours on Wednesday before temperatures rise above freezing later in the day.

Exactly how quickly this switchover to rain occurs will determine the final ice totals. A faster transition to rain would likely keep totals closer to 5mm, while a slower warm-up could allow some areas to approach 15mm.

Some brief freezing rain during the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday is also possible for locations including Midland, Orillia, Lindsay and Kingston. However, it should remain very minor as temperatures are expected to rise above freezing fairly quickly, switching precipitation over to rain after an hour or two.

The higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands may be able to hold onto below-freezing temperatures for a few additional hours. Areas such as Orangeville and Shelburne could see around 2 to 6mm of freezing rain accumulation, mostly during the morning hours.

Once temperatures climb above freezing, though, impacts in these areas should quickly improve.

In locations that remain mostly rain, we are generally expecting between 20 and 40mm of rainfall across Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe.

Localized heavier pockets of 50 to 75mm are possible closer to the Lake Erie shoreline, especially in areas that see thunderstorm activity develop within the system.

Keep in mind that this remains a preliminary forecast, and details may still shift before the system arrives. We will have a much more refined forecast on Tuesday with updated timing and precipitation totals as we get closer to the event.

March 06, 2026

Southern Ontario Could Soar Near 20°C This Weekend as ‘March Melt’ Triggers Rapid Snowmelt, Flooding Risk and Thunderstorms

March 06, 2026/ Brennen Perry

After what felt like a winter that would never end across Southern Ontario, our first widespread taste of spring-like weather is finally on the horizon just in time for the weekend.

While parts of Southwestern Ontario have already seen brief stretches of double-digit temperatures this year, those warmer readings have been fairly localized. That is about to change on Saturday as temperatures are expected to soar well into the double digits across most of Southern Ontario. There is even a chance that Deep Southwestern Ontario could see the first 20°C day of the year.

Unfortunately, this warm-up will come at a cost. The milder temperatures will arrive alongside heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorm activity beginning Friday evening and continuing through much of Saturday.

As the warmer air moves in, it will also bring a more unstable atmosphere. Because of this, there is a conditional risk for marginally severe storms in parts of Southwestern Ontario extending toward the Niagara region. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty with this threat, as storms will have to contend with the very cold waters of Lake Huron and Lake Erie, which can act as a natural storm shield for Southern Ontario.

Another concern with this system is the flooding potential. The combination of double-digit temperatures and heavy rainfall over an area that still has a fairly significant snowpack, especially across Central Ontario, could lead to rapid snowmelt and rising water levels.

Current model guidance suggests that this brief warm spell could trigger rapid melting of the snowpack. This would introduce a large amount of additional water into local rivers and watersheds on top of the 25 to 50 mm of rainfall that is expected from this system.

Those in areas that are prone to spring flooding should begin preparing for the possibility of rising water levels over the next several days into early next week. As the snowpack melts and rain continues to fall, that water will gradually work its way through the watershed. Additional rainfall toward the middle of next week, combined with another round of double-digit temperatures, could further worsen the situation.

**SIMULATED RADAR** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The first round of heavier rainfall is expected to develop late Friday and continue into the overnight hours. This area of rain may also contain embedded non-severe thunderstorms, particularly around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, extending eastward into parts of Eastern Ontario.

These pockets of storms may produce locally heavier rainfall totals along with small hail and frequent lightning strikes.

By mid-morning on Saturday, areas from Southwestern Ontario into the Greater Toronto Area should see a brief break from the heavier rainfall. Periods of drizzle may continue through the rest of the morning while the focus for heavier rain and thunderstorms shifts toward Eastern Ontario before gradually moving out by around the lunch hour.

Another cluster of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms is expected to develop and move into Southwestern Ontario sometime during the late morning or early afternoon hours. There remains some disagreement among forecast models regarding the exact intensity of this line as it crosses Southern Ontario.

It cannot be ruled out that a marginally severe storm could develop within this cluster. The main threats would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. This risk appears to be slightly higher around the Niagara region, where storms could move into an environment that becomes more favourable for severe weather through the early to mid-afternoon hours.

After this cluster moves through, there is also the possibility of additional isolated storms developing over Michigan and Lake Huron. These storms could then track into Southwestern Ontario by the late afternoon or early evening hours.

This time period may present the greatest severe weather potential of the day. However, there is still uncertainty related to the timing of the earlier cluster of storms. If that earlier activity clears out quickly enough, it would allow the atmosphere time to recover and become unstable again by late afternoon, creating a more supportive environment for additional storm development.

Another important factor is the time of year. This would be our first thunderstorm risk of the season, and the lakes remain extremely cold. When storms move over these cold waters, they often weaken, which can limit their ability to become severe. This is one reason why early-season storm risks across Southern Ontario often underperform expectations.

Because of this uncertainty, we are currently forecasting a level 1 out of 5 severe weather risk, also known as a marginal risk. This represents the potential for storms capable of producing wind gusts up to around 90 km/h, hail up to quarter size and brief heavy rainfall. While the tornado risk appears to be fairly low, it can never be completely ruled out when dealing with severe thunderstorms.

Locations within the marginal risk area include Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia, London, Grand Bend, Goderich, Kincardine, Owen Sound, Hanover, Brantford, Hamilton and Niagara Falls.

Across the rest of Southern Ontario, including the Greater Toronto Area, Central Ontario and Eastern Ontario, there will still be a chance for thunderstorms. However, most of these storms are expected to remain below severe limits and will likely occur during the overnight hours into Saturday morning and early afternoon.

Aside from the thunderstorm threat, heavy rainfall will be a major story with this system. Widespread rainfall totals of 25 to 50 mm are expected across many areas by the end of Saturday.

The heaviest rain is expected to stretch from the Lake Huron shoreline northeastward through Central Ontario and into portions of Eastern Ontario. Most areas within this corridor will likely see around 25 to 40 mm of rainfall, although localized thunderstorms could push totals closer to 50 mm or even as high as 65 mm in isolated locations where storms repeatedly track over the same area.

Deep Southwestern Ontario and parts of the Golden Horseshoe are expected to receive around 10 to 25 mm of rain. However, rainfall totals will be highly variable depending on thunderstorm activity. Some locations could easily exceed 25 mm if stronger storms develop.

**ESTIMATED SNOW DEPTH (CM)** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Even without the snowpack, this amount of rainfall would already be somewhat concerning for early March. In some areas, the ground remains partially frozen, which limits its ability to absorb rainfall efficiently and increases the likelihood of runoff.

The additional concern comes from the amount of snow still on the ground in parts of Southern Ontario. Snow depth remains quite significant across many areas, especially in Central Ontario.

Model estimates indicate that the deepest snowpack is currently located across Muskoka and into Algonquin Park. However, this is only an estimate. Given the amount of lake effect snow that some of these regions received this winter, the true depth may not be fully captured in the model data.

Current estimates suggest snow depths of roughly 50 to 100 cm in the deepest locations. That represents a large amount of stored water that will eventually enter local rivers and streams as melting begins.

With temperatures climbing well into the double digits on Saturday across much of Southern Ontario, including parts of Central and Eastern Ontario, the snowpack is expected to begin melting rapidly. When combined with 25 to 50 mm of rainfall, this could lead to a fairly rapid influx of water into the watershed.

Forecast models disagree somewhat on how quickly the snowpack will melt. The European model is slightly less aggressive with melting, while the American model shows a much more dramatic reduction in snow depth over the weekend.

According to the American model scenario, most of the snowpack across Southern Ontario could largely disappear by the end of Sunday. The only remaining snow would likely be confined to a small pocket around Muskoka with roughly 5 to 20 cm still on the ground.

If this scenario verifies, it would mean that a large portion of Southern Ontario’s snowpack could melt and enter the watershed within about 48 hours. That would represent a significant amount of water moving through the system in a relatively short period of time.

Residents in flood-prone areas, particularly those located near rivers and streams that commonly experience spring flooding, should be prepared for the possibility of rising water levels over the coming week. This concern is especially relevant across Central and Eastern Ontario, where much of the deeper snowpack is located.

In terms of temperatures, the warmest air is expected to arrive on Saturday. Daytime highs will climb well into the double digits by late morning and afternoon across most of Southern Ontario. For many locations, this will likely be the warmest day experienced so far in 2026.

The warmest conditions will likely occur across Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Sarnia and Chatham. Current data support temperatures reaching the upper teens and possibly even approaching the 20°C mark for the first time this year. It is still somewhat uncertain whether temperatures will reach that milestone, but if it happens, the Windsor area would be the most likely location.

Across the rest of Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe, daytime highs are expected to reach the mid to upper teens. Areas closer to the shorelines of the Great Lakes, along with higher elevations northwest of the Greater Toronto Area, may end up slightly cooler with highs closer to 12 to 15°C.

Double-digit temperatures should also extend into Central and Eastern Ontario. Highs around 12 to 15°C are expected from Lake Simcoe through Peterborough and into Brockville.

Areas directly along the Lake Ontario shoreline from Oshawa to Kingston will likely remain slightly cooler with daytime highs around 9 to 12°C due to the influence of the cold lake waters.

Across the rest of Central Ontario and Eastern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley, temperatures are expected to reach the high single digits or low teens, with most areas topping out around 9 to 12°C.

A brief cooldown will arrive late Saturday night as colder air moves back into the region. Overnight lows will fall back near the freezing mark or into the low single digits. Daytime highs on Sunday will struggle to climb out of the single digits for many locations.

However, this cooldown will be short-lived. Double-digit temperatures are expected to return again on Monday, Tuesday and possibly Wednesday as the active weather pattern continues.

February 24, 2026

Poorly Timed Alberta Clipper to Bring Up to 10-20cm of Snow to Southern Ontario Ahead of Wednesday Morning Commute

February 24, 2026/ Brennen Perry

As we enter the final days of February, it appears the month is set to go out like a lion across Southern Ontario. A poorly timed Alberta clipper is expected to sweep through the region overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing a widespread snowfall and a return to more wintry conditions just as many were starting to get used to some slightly milder weather.

While total accumulation with this system is not expected to be overly significant by late February standards, with general widespread amounts of 5 to 10 cm and some localized pockets closer to 15 cm, what makes this event potentially impactful is the timing and how it lines up with the Wednesday morning commute.

The bulk of this snow is forecast to fall during the overnight hours, lasting into early Wednesday morning. That means many roads will be snow-covered with very little time for crews to fully clear and treat surfaces before traffic begins to build.

Even though snowfall rates are not expected to be extreme, the steady nature of the snow will allow it to accumulate on untreated roads, potentially resulting in slow travel, slippery conditions and even some school bus cancellations in areas where backroads remain snow-covered.

Wind gusts approaching 40 to 60 km/h throughout the morning hours could further reduce visibility due to blowing snow, especially in more exposed areas such as regions east of Lake Huron and around Georgian Bay. Even if the snowfall itself is light to moderate, the added wind will make it feel more intense at times and could create brief periods of near whiteout conditions in open stretches of highway and rural roads.

The system snow is expected to wrap up by the late morning hours as the clipper exits our region to the east. However, that will not necessarily mark the end of the story. Behind the system, a surge of colder Arctic air is forecast to move in, briefly reawakening Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Ice coverage on both lakes has decreased somewhat over the past few weeks, thanks to temperatures running above seasonal norms, and that open water may allow for renewed lake effect snow development.

As the colder air flows over the relatively milder lake waters, some localized pockets of heavier lake effect snow could develop throughout the day on Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact intensity of this activity, particularly given the remaining ice coverage, which can limit how much moisture the bands are able to tap into. In addition, wind direction is expected to shift throughout the day, making it difficult for any one band to lock in over a single community for an extended period of time.

If the lake effect does organize, it could bring an additional 5 to 10 cm of snow on top of the 5 to 10 cm from the clipper system. That means some areas east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay could be looking at a combined total of 10 to 20 cm by the end of the day Wednesday, especially in communities that see multiple rounds of heavier bursts.

Current indications suggest the initial bands of heavier snow associated with the clipper should move into regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay sometime during the mid to late evening hours on Tuesday. It looks to be heaviest around Grey and Bruce counties at first, before slowly expanding eastward through the rest of the evening and into Central Ontario.

Wind gusts will also be increasing through the evening, leading to blowing snow and reduced visibility overnight. Travel could become fairly difficult, particularly in rural areas and on secondary highways, as the heavier snow moves through during the late evening and overnight hours.

By around midnight, most of Southwestern and Central Ontario should be seeing widespread steady snowfall, with the snow stretching into the Greater Toronto Area as well. The GTA is not expected to see the heaviest bands, but steady snow through the overnight hours will still be enough to create snow-covered roads by daybreak.

This snow will not be particularly intense, with hourly snowfall rates generally near or slightly below 1 cm per hour. However, when that steady snowfall persists for several hours overnight, those hourly amounts can add up quickly. A consistent light to moderate snowfall over a 4 to 6-hour window is more than enough to create slick travel conditions by morning.

Once the snow begins in any given area, it should last for roughly 4 to 6 hours before tapering off. In Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe, snowfall should come to an end by the mid-morning hours on Wednesday, while areas farther east will see snow lingering a bit longer.

This is also when the snow will begin to push into Eastern Ontario, setting up for ongoing snowfall right at the height of the morning commute in that region. That timing could lead to more noticeable impacts for communities along the St Lawrence River and into the Ottawa Valley, where snow may still be falling steadily as people head to work and school.

Aside from Eastern Ontario, the snow should be mostly done by sunrise across much of Southern Ontario. However, even if flakes are no longer falling, road conditions may still be less than ideal. With snow ending around 3 to 5 AM in many areas, that leaves a narrow window for cleanup operations, especially in regions with extensive rural road networks and less traffic to help pack down and melt the snow.

The exact impacts will vary depending on location. In more urban areas such as the Greater Toronto Area, cleanup on major highways and primary roads should occur relatively quickly, meaning the morning commute will likely be slower than usual but still manageable. In more rural communities, continued blowing snow combined with existing overnight accumulation could be enough to lead to significant travel delays and the possibility of school bus cancellations.

Another factor we will be closely watching is the development of scattered lake effect snow bands by the late morning hours on Wednesday, continuing into the afternoon and evening. These bands appear most likely to focus on areas east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, but shifting winds could occasionally push bursts of heavier snow into neighbouring regions.

Because both Lake Huron and Georgian Bay remain partially ice-covered, the available moisture for lake effect development is somewhat limited. That should help prevent the bands from becoming extremely intense or long-lasting. Changing wind direction throughout Wednesday will also reduce the likelihood of a single band sitting over one community for many hours.

That said, wherever a lake effect band does set up, conditions can deteriorate quickly. Heavy snowfall rates and sharply reduced visibility are possible in these localized areas.

There are some indications that northern portions of Grey and Bruce counties could see more persistent lake effect activity later Wednesday and into the early overnight hours. If that scenario materializes, slightly higher totals would be possible in those areas, particularly along the Bruce Peninsula.

Looking strictly at the snowfall totals from the clipper itself, most of Southern Ontario is expected to see around 5 to 10 cm by the time it tapers off Wednesday morning. A few localized spots could approach 15 cm if they happen to sit under a heavier band for a longer period, but those higher totals will be the exception rather than the rule.

Adding in the lake effect component, another 5 to 10 cm is possible through the day on Wednesday for areas east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. That would bring combined totals into the 10 to 20 cm range for communities such as Goderich, Kincardine, Hanover, Owen Sound, Wiarton, Tobermory, Midland, Orillia, Bracebridge and Parry Sound.

Lower snowfall totals under 5 cm are expected for Deep Southwestern Ontario, parts of the Niagara region and along the St Lawrence River in Eastern Ontario. The latest data suggests the system will carry less moisture into these areas, and some locations may briefly sit in a dry slot, resulting in lighter and more intermittent snowfall. Even so, localized amounts closer to 8 cm cannot be ruled out where steadier snow manages to develop for a few hours.

Overall, while this Alberta clipper is not shaping up to be a blockbuster winter storm, its overnight timing, steady snowfall and gusty winds will likely be enough to cause headaches for the Wednesday morning commute across parts of Southern Ontario.

February 20, 2026

Up to 20cm of Heavy Snow to Slam Ottawa, Central and Eastern Ontario Friday as Evening Commute Faces Travel Headaches

February 20, 2026/ Brennen Perry

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Our second messy winter storm of the week is lining up for parts of Southern Ontario, and this one looks timed almost perfectly to cause headaches for the Friday evening commute with a burst of heavy snow in some areas and a messy mix in others.

After many communities dealt with significant impacts earlier in the week, there is very little breathing room before this next system arrives. While Wednesday’s storm largely spared much of Central and Eastern Ontario from the worst of it, this next round is expected to target many of those same regions that missed out last time, shifting the focus farther north and east.

This system comes with its own set of challenges. Temperatures will be hovering very close to the freezing mark for a large portion of the day on Friday, and that makes the forecast particularly sensitive. A difference of just a degree or two will determine whether you see cold rain, freezing rain, ice pellets, or heavy wet snow. That small shift in temperature could dramatically change road conditions and overall impacts in a short amount of time.

Some forecast models continue to show a slightly colder solution, which would support more mixing through the late morning and early afternoon hours. That includes a risk of freezing rain and ice pellets, especially across the higher elevations northwest of the Greater Toronto Area and east of Lake Simcoe.

Other models are holding onto slightly warmer air at the surface, which would keep precipitation mainly as rain through that same window and significantly limit any icing threat. This is the fine line we are watching very closely.

What does appear more certain is that colder air will remain firmly in place across northern sections of Central and Eastern Ontario throughout the day. That means once precipitation begins early Friday afternoon in those areas, it should fall predominantly as snow.

With colder air already established, there will be fewer questions about precipitation type and more focus on how heavy the snow becomes and how quickly it accumulates.

Although this storm is not expected to be a long-duration event, its short and intense nature may actually increase the impact. Several hours of heavy snowfall are likely through the late afternoon and evening, particularly across Eastern Ontario.

Snowfall rates could approach 5 cm per hour in the most intense bands, especially around the Ottawa Valley. When snow falls that hard, accumulation can happen rapidly, and visibility can drop off very quickly, creating hazardous travel conditions in a matter of minutes.

Across Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe, the story will look a little different. Precipitation is expected to arrive overnight in the southwest first, spreading northeast through the morning hours.

With temperatures rising slightly overnight and into the morning, much of the area southeast of Lake Simcoe should see mainly rain through the early to mid-morning hours. For many, the first half of Friday may feel more like a cold and damp day rather than a winter storm.

The tricky zone will set up somewhere across southern Central and Eastern Ontario, where that milder air meets the colder air to the north. In this transition zone, we could see a brief period of freezing rain, changing to ice pellets, and then eventually to snow as colder air deepens. That could allow for some localized icing through parts of Simcoe County, Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough and Kingston during the late morning hours, roughly between 9 and 11 AM.

A pocket of near or slightly below freezing temperatures may also develop along the higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands around Orangeville.

Not all guidance supports this icing scenario. Some models keep temperatures just above freezing long enough to prevent freezing rain from developing, limiting the risk to plain rain before a changeover to snow later in the day.

Others lean more toward an ice pellet mix rather than significant freezing rain, as colder air aloft begins to erode the warm layer needed to sustain icing. This is where small temperature differences will make a big impact on the ground.

By around midday, the leading edge of steadier precipitation should be pushing deeper into Central and Eastern Ontario. As it runs into that stubborn pocket of cold air across northern sections and into the Ottawa Valley, a swath of heavy wet snow is expected to develop. This band is likely to stretch from Muskoka through Peterborough and into Kingston, gradually intensifying through the afternoon.

There may be some initial mixing with ice pellets that limits accumulation during the first couple of hours, but as colder air continues to settle in, snowfall rates are expected to increase.

Conditions will begin to deteriorate more rapidly later in the afternoon as heavier bands organize. Snowfall rates of 2 to 4 cm per hour appear likely through much of Central and Eastern Ontario, with the heaviest corridor from Lake Simcoe through Peterborough and into Kingston. Snow will also expand into the Ottawa Valley, starting lighter at first before ramping up closer to the dinner hour.

The mixing line is forecast to gradually sink south and east through the afternoon, allowing areas such as Barrie, Grey Bruce and Belleville to transition over to heavier snow as well.

Meanwhile, across Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe, colder air will begin to undercut the departing rain. While much of the steadier precipitation may fall as rain before temperatures drop, any lingering precipitation is expected to change over to wet snow late in the afternoon and early evening.

That changeover timing is not ideal. Even a few hours of steady wet snow during the evening commute can create slick roads, especially as temperatures dip below freezing. Gusty winds approaching 50 to 60 km per hour in some areas may also lead to areas of blowing snow where accumulation occurs, reducing visibility and adding to the travel challenges.

Because this system is moving fairly quickly, the window for the worst conditions will likely be concentrated into just a few hours during the late afternoon and early evening. That is when snowfall rates will be at their peak and when road crews will have the hardest time keeping up. Sudden bursts of heavy snow could overwhelm plows and lead to rapidly deteriorating conditions.

The most intense band is expected to sweep through Eastern Ontario during the late afternoon and early evening, likely reaching the Ottawa Valley between roughly 6 and 8 PM. Snowfall rates approaching or even exceeding 5 cm per hour are possible within this band. Commuters should be prepared for sudden drops in visibility and rapidly accumulating snow on untreated surfaces.

Across Southwestern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area, snowfall amounts are expected to be much lighter. Most locations in these areas will see rain primarily, followed by a brief period of snow late in the day. While totals are expected to remain under 2 cm in many spots, that small amount combined with falling temperatures could still lead to icy patches Friday evening.

Snow is expected to taper off from west to east through the late evening hours, with most areas seeing precipitation end by around midnight. Some scattered flurries may linger into the overnight hours and into early Saturday morning, but the main storm impacts should be over by then.

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In terms of snowfall totals, Eastern Ontario is expected to see the highest amounts. We are forecasting 10 to 20 cm for communities including Ottawa, Cornwall, Brockville, Smiths Falls, Renfrew, Bancroft, Tweed and Huntsville. Locally higher totals up to 25 cm are possible where the most intense snow bands set up for a few hours.

Amounts are expected to taper off to the south and east, where mixing plays a larger role, and overall precipitation amounts are slightly lower. Locations such as Kingston, Belleville, Peterborough, Orillia, Midland, Tobermory, Bracebridge, Parry Sound, Sundridge, North Bay and Sudbury can generally expect 5 to 10 cm. However, with temperatures hovering near freezing at times, there is a chance some of that snow may partially melt or compact, which could reduce final totals.

Owen Sound, Collingwood and Barrie are forecast to see around 2 to 5 cm. These communities sit very close to the mixing line, so a small shift colder could allow them to overperform and reach closer to 5 to 10 cm in localized areas.

Less than 2 cm is expected across much of Southwestern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area, with most of that falling after the rain transitions to snow late in the day.

February 17, 2026

Ice Storm Threat for Hamilton and Kitchener as Toronto and Barrie Face Snow and Icy Blast on Wednesday

February 17, 2026/ Brennen Perry

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A significant and potentially high-impact winter storm is set to take aim at Southern Ontario throughout the day on Wednesday, bringing a messy and complicated mix of freezing rain, ice pellets and heavy snow.

This is shaping up to be a true multi-hazard event, and depending on your exact location, the impacts could look very different. Some communities will be dealing with hours of relentless freezing rain and dangerous ice buildup, while others will see bursts of heavy snow mixed with ice pellets.

While the specific precipitation type will vary substantially from region to region, the one thing that is nearly universal is the timing. This storm is expected to peak during the height of both the morning and afternoon commutes. That alone will be enough to create widespread travel headaches across highways, city streets and rural roads alike.

The main story with this system will likely be the corridor of significant freezing rain focused south and west of the Greater Toronto Area. This includes Hamilton through Kitchener and Guelph, along with Perth, Wellington, Dufferin, Grey and Bruce counties. These areas are in the prime zone for prolonged icing.

Six to twelve hours of freezing rain beginning in the early morning and continuing into the late afternoon will allow ice to quickly accumulate on untreated roads, sidewalks, driveways, trees and power lines. In some communities, total ice accretion could approach 10 to 15 mm. That is more than enough to create dangerous travel conditions and begin causing infrastructure issues.

To make matters worse, wind gusts are expected to range from 40 to 60 km/h, with some areas potentially seeing localized gusts of 70 to 80 km/h through the morning and afternoon. When you combine strong winds with heavy ice accumulation, the risk of power outages increases significantly. Ice weighing down tree branches and power lines does not need much additional force to snap, and scattered to potentially widespread outages are possible in the hardest hit areas.

Unlike some freezing rain events where temperatures eventually rise above zero and help melt some of the ice, this system is not expected to feature a meaningful warmup. Cold air at the surface is likely to remain locked in place until at least Thursday, and possibly even into Friday. That means once surfaces are coated in ice, they may stay that way for an extended period of time. This could prolong power outages and keep travel conditions poor well beyond Wednesday.

Freezing drizzle may also linger through the later part of Wednesday and into early Thursday across parts of Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe. Even light drizzle can add a fresh glaze on top of existing ice, further worsening conditions and increasing the risk of slips, falls and vehicle collisions.

Further north and east, from around Lake Simcoe through Toronto, Peterborough and into Kingston, the focus shifts more toward a messy mix of ice pellets (sleet) and snow. While snowfall totals are not expected to be extreme, generally in the 5 to 15 cm range, the presence of ice pellets and occasional freezing rain will still make for slick and hazardous conditions.

Based on the latest model guidance, the first band of precipitation will arrive in Deep Southwestern Ontario during the early morning hours. Areas like Windsor, Sarnia and Chatham will be well above freezing, so precipitation here will fall mainly as rain.

As that precipitation spreads northeast through the morning, it will encounter below-freezing temperatures at the surface. That is where the transition to freezing rain will occur, with rain freezing on contact with cold surfaces. This swath of freezing rain is expected to expand as additional bands of precipitation move in through the mid-morning hours.

Conditions are likely to deteriorate quickly around Hamilton, Kitchener, Hanover and Owen Sound during the mid to late morning as steady freezing rain sets in. Roads may become icy in a short period of time, especially on untreated surfaces and elevated roadways such as bridges and overpasses.

By late morning, the freezing rain may edge into portions of Peel and York Region, along with Toronto. However, there remains some uncertainty with the temperature profile in these areas. It may begin as freezing rain but could quickly mix with or change to ice pellets and snow as colder air near Lake Simcoe resists the push of warmer air aloft. Even a few hours of freezing rain in the GTA during rush hour would be enough to cause significant delays and collisions.

By around noon, snow and ice pellets are expected to reach Barrie, with that messy mix extending into Toronto. Meanwhile, freezing rain will likely remain steady and relentless from Hamilton through Kitchener and Hanover, continuing to build ice on trees and power lines.

One key factor we will be watching closely is the potential for temperatures to actually drop slightly through the morning in some areas. If that happens, communities around Niagara and into London could briefly dip below freezing and transition from rain to freezing rain, increasing the icing risk in those areas.

Through the early afternoon, the corridor of freezing rain is expected to remain largely locked in place. By this time, ice accretion on many surfaces could be reaching significant or even crippling levels in the hardest hit communities.

Additional bursts of moderate to heavy precipitation during the afternoon could further add weight to already stressed trees and power lines. If damage is going to occur, it is most likely to ramp up during this period.

There is some good news as precipitation should begin to clear out of Southwestern Ontario by mid-afternoon. Areas that experience the worst of the freezing rain should see it taper off by late afternoon, although the impacts will linger.

By mid-afternoon, the leading edge of the heavier snow is expected to reach Orillia and Peterborough. There remains some uncertainty on how far north and east the steadier snow will extend before weakening. Some model guidance pushes it as far as Muskoka and Kingston, while others keep the bulk of it closer to Lake Simcoe.

Heavy snow and ice pellets with localized blowing snow will continue through the afternoon in these areas. Closer to Toronto, warmer air aloft may briefly push back in, potentially causing a switch back to freezing rain late in the event. Unfortunately, this could line up closely with the afternoon commute, leading to significant travel disruptions.

If possible, it would be wise to delay travel during both the morning and afternoon peak periods. Icy roads, reduced visibility and the potential for downed branches or power lines could make conditions dangerous in a hurry.

As the system weakens and begins to break apart over Central Ontario during the early evening, we may still see pockets of patchy freezing drizzle develop around the Golden Horseshoe and into Southwestern Ontario.

This includes many of the same areas hardest hit by earlier freezing rain. Even light drizzle could add additional ice and prolong impacts into Thursday morning, increasing the risk of school bus cancellations for a second consecutive day.

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When it comes to snowfall totals, there is some uncertainty due to the mixing with ice pellets. The heaviest swath of snow is most likely to extend from the northern tip of the Bruce Peninsula through Simcoe County and Southern Muskoka into the eastern GTA, Peterborough and Belleville area.

We are forecasting a general 5 to 15 cm for Barrie, Orillia, Gravenhurst, Lindsay, Port Perry, Peterborough, Cobourg, Belleville and Picton, with localized totals up to 20 cm possible if the system overperforms.

A similar 5 to 15 cm is forecast for Collingwood, Angus, Vaughan, Bradford, Newmarket, Toronto, Pickering and Oshawa. However, more mixing with ice pellets is expected in this zone, so totals may trend closer to the lower end of that range in many communities.

For Parry Sound, Huntsville, Haliburton, Tweed and Kingston, snowfall totals are expected to range from 2 to 5 cm. There is also a chance that some of these areas see very little accumulation if the storm weakens faster than currently projected.

Less than 2 cm of snow is expected across much of Eastern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley.

To the west, snowfall totals will decrease as ice pellets and freezing rain become the more dominant precipitation types. We are forecasting 2 to 5 cm for Wiarton, Shelburne, Orangeville and Oakville, with less than 2 cm further southwest.

Turning back to the freezing rain threat, the worst impacts are expected west of the Golden Horseshoe along the Hamilton through Kitchener to Owen Sound corridor.

Highest ice accretion is likely in Hamilton, Burlington, Cambridge, Kitchener, Listowel, Minto, Wingham, Mildmay, Port Elgin and Hanover. Ice storm conditions are possible here with 6 to 12 mm of icing, and localized pockets of 15 mm cannot be ruled out.

A zone including Owen Sound, Chatsworth, Arthur, Fergus and Guelph is also at risk for 6 to 12 mm of freezing rain accretion. There is some uncertainty here due to the potential mixing with ice pellets at times, especially late morning into early afternoon, which could limit totals somewhat.

Lower amounts of freezing rain are expected both to the southwest and northeast for different reasons.

To the southwest, more rain will mix in, limiting the duration of icing. Niagara on the Lake, St. Catharines, Woodstock, Clinton and Kincardine could see 2 to 6 mm of freezing rain, mainly during the latter part of the event as temperatures gradually slip below freezing.

Southern Niagara through Simcoe, Tillsonburg, London, Lucan and Goderich can expect less than 2 mm of freezing rain, with precipitation falling mainly as rain.

To the northeast, mixing with ice pellets will limit freezing rain totals. That includes Wiarton, Meaford, Orangeville, Brampton, Oakville, Mississauga and Toronto, where around 2 to 6 mm of freezing rain accretion is expected.

Less than 2 mm of icing is forecast for York Region and into Simcoe County, where snow and ice pellets should be the main precipitation types.

This is a complex and high-impact storm with significant variation over relatively short distances. We will continue to fine-tune these details as new data comes in, but now is the time to prepare for difficult travel, possible power outages and extended icy conditions across parts of Southern Ontario.

February 09, 2026

Snowy Blast Could Bring 10-20cm of Fresh Snow to a Wide Swath of Southern Ontario on Tuesday

February 09, 2026/ Brennen Perry

The month of February has certainly been a lot quieter on the snow front across Southern Ontario compared to what many experienced during January. That stretch featured relentless lake effect squalls and several high-impact winter storms that seemed to roll through one after another. In contrast, February has so far offered more breaks between systems, even though we’ve still spent plenty of time locked in the deep freeze.

While temperatures have slipped well below seasonal levels again, the good news is that this cold snap is not expected to last. A gradual warming trend is forecast to take hold as we head into the middle of this week, with temperatures slowly climbing back toward seasonal norms as early as Tuesday.

However, that return to more seasonable temperatures comes with a trade-off. As we moderate, Southern Ontario will once again find itself squarely within the active storm track. And that pattern shift looks set to make itself known very quickly, as we continue to monitor a potentially widespread snow maker expected to impact the region on Tuesday.

A developing system is forecast to slide across Southern Ontario beginning overnight Monday and continuing through much of the day on Tuesday. Current guidance suggests this system has the potential to produce a broad swath of accumulating snow, particularly across Central and Eastern Ontario.

At this point, the highest confidence area for significant snowfall lies across Central and Eastern Ontario, where widespread accumulations of 10 to 20cm appear increasingly likely. While details are still being refined, confidence is growing that this will be a high-impact event for travel.

Given the timing, this system is expected to cause issues during both the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Snow is likely to be ongoing during the morning rush, with roads becoming increasingly snow covered as the day progresses. Conditions may briefly improve in some western areas by late afternoon, but parts of Eastern Ontario could be dealing with their worst conditions right as the evening commute begins.

In addition to snow, there is also a concern for mixed precipitation in parts of Southwestern Ontario and the western GTA. Some guidance continues to show a risk for freezing drizzle or freezing rain developing late Tuesday morning into the early afternoon, particularly along the London, Kitchener, Guelph and Hamilton corridor.

The system itself is expected to begin spreading into Southern Ontario from the northwest shortly after midnight Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The first areas to see snow will likely be Grey Bruce, Parry Sound, Simcoe County and Muskoka, with coverage expanding steadily southeastward through the pre-dawn hours.

By early Tuesday morning, snow should be fairly widespread across Central Ontario, with conditions continuing to deteriorate as snowfall rates increase.

As we move into the mid-morning hours, snow is expected to expand into the Highway 401 corridor east of Toronto, stretching toward Belleville, Kingston and beyond.

The heaviest pocket of snow during the morning hours is expected across parts of Central Ontario and areas surrounding Lake Simcoe. In these regions, snowfall rates could reach 2 to 3cm per hour at times. Combined with gusty winds, blowing snow and localized whiteout conditions are possible, which could make travel extremely difficult.

With those conditions developing during the morning hours, school bus cancellations are a strong possibility across parts of Central Ontario, particularly where the heaviest snow bands set up.

By the late morning hours, steady snow is expected to overspread much of Eastern Ontario, including Kingston and extending northward into the Ottawa Valley. Snowfall rates are expected to gradually increase through the afternoon as the system strengthens while pushing east.

At the same time, we continue to monitor the risk of mixed precipitation further west. Some models are indicating a narrow zone where warmer air aloft could allow freezing rain, freezing drizzle or even ice pellets to briefly mix in with the snow. The highest risk for this appears to be from London through Kitchener, Guelph and Hamilton, though it may extend north toward Barrie and east into York Region and parts of Toronto.

Confidence remains low on how much icing will occur and for how long. Most indications suggest this risk would be brief and taper off by early afternoon as the system continues east. Even so, any freezing rain could lead to icy road conditions, especially on untreated rural roads and side streets.

As we move into the afternoon, snow is expected to taper off from west to east across much of Southern Ontario. However, conditions may actually worsen further east as the system intensifies while moving into Eastern Ontario.

Some model data shows the potential for rapid intensification of snow bands across Eastern Ontario during the mid to late afternoon. In these scenarios, snowfall rates could briefly approach 4 to 5cm per hour for an hour or two. If that materializes, snow could pile up very quickly and lead to snow-covered roads just as the evening commute gets underway.

This raises concern for a particularly difficult evening commute through Kingston, Brockville and much of the Ottawa Valley, where travel conditions could deteriorate rapidly in a short period of time.

When it comes to snowfall totals, this is shaping up to be one of those systems where there is fairly strong agreement across the models.

Most of Central and Eastern Ontario, extending into Northeastern Ontario, can expect general snowfall totals in the 10 to 15cm range by the time snow winds down Tuesday evening. This includes areas such as Ottawa, Cornwall, Brockville, Smiths Falls, Renfrew, Bancroft, Bracebridge, Huntsville, Algonquin Park, Parry Sound, North Bay, Sudbury and Elliot Lake.

We have opted to use a slightly broader forecast range of 10 to 20cm to account for the potential that the system overperforms in some areas. A few models continue to suggest totals creeping above 15cm in parts of Eastern Ontario, which would push localized amounts closer to the upper end of that range.

There is also a low but non-zero risk that isolated pockets could approach 25cm, particularly if intense snowfall rates linger over the same area for an extended period of time in Eastern Ontario. At this stage, totals above 20cm remain questionable and are not the most likely outcome.

Further south, snowfall totals are expected to be lower. These areas will likely sit south of the strongest precipitation bands, and temperatures closer to the freezing mark will also work against higher accumulations.

A zone stretching from the Bruce Peninsula through Owen Sound, Collingwood, Midland, Barrie, Orillia, Peterborough, Oshawa, Belleville and Kingston is expected to see around 5 to 10cm of new snow. There is a chance that the northern edge of this zone, particularly near Orillia and Peterborough, could see localized totals closer to 15cm if heavier bands shift slightly south.

Southern Grey Bruce, Kitchener, Guelph and parts of the western GTA are expected to see less than 5cm of snow overall. However, these areas carry the highest risk for freezing rain, with up to 2mm of ice accretion possible during the late morning period.

Deep Southwestern Ontario, including London and extending into the Niagara region, is expected to see little to no snow from this system. Temperatures here may briefly rise above the freezing mark on Tuesday, making regular rain the most likely precipitation type for much of the event.

We will continue to refine the forecast as higher resolution guidance comes into range, especially with regards to the freezing rain risk and the potential for intense snowfall rates in Eastern Ontario. Stay tuned for updates as we get closer to Tuesday.

January 24, 2026

25-40cm of Snow Possible Around Toronto on Sunday as Widespread Snowstorm Threatens Travel Across Southern Ontario

January 24, 2026/ Brennen Perry

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An expansive and high-impact winter storm is currently bearing down on a large portion of the United States this weekend, bringing widespread heavy snowfall and areas of crippling freezing rain to parts of the Southeast and the Northeastern US. This is a powerful and dynamic system that is already causing significant concern south of the border, with dangerous travel conditions, power outage risks and major disruptions expected in many states.

Southern Ontario will not be spared entirely from this storm. While we will avoid the worst of the freezing rain and blizzard conditions seen farther south, we are firmly in line to be clipped by the northwestern edge of this system on Sunday. That will be enough to deliver a widespread and impactful snowstorm across much of the region.

The axis of heaviest snowfall is expected to stretch from near the Lake Erie shoreline, through the Golden Horseshoe, and eastward into Eastern Ontario. Travel impacts are likely to be significant, especially as the most intense snowfall rates arrive during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday, a time when roads are typically busiest. Although thankfully on the weekend, which should help keep traffic volumes lower compared to a workday.

For many areas, general snowfall totals are expected to range between 15 and 25cm. This includes a broad zone covering Windsor, London, Kitchener, Kingston, Peterborough and Ottawa. However, snowfall amounts will not be uniform, and some regions will see considerably higher totals due to lake enhancement and mesoscale banding features.

The greatest concern continues to focus on the Golden Horseshoe and the Lake Ontario shoreline, where lake enhancement is expected to play a major role. In these areas, snowfall totals are likely to exceed 25cm, with some locations pushing well beyond that threshold by the time the snow tapers off late Sunday night.

There is growing confidence in the development of a persistent and narrow band of lake effect snow becoming embedded within the broader system snowfall. This feature is expected to impact parts of the Greater Toronto Area and the northwestern and western shoreline of Lake Ontario. When lake effect bands become embedded within a large-scale storm like this, snowfall rates can intensify dramatically over a very small area.

This creates an unusual and high-risk setup where the most impressive snowfall totals of the entire event may end up falling over the most densely populated portion of Southern Ontario. In some neighbourhoods, it cannot be ruled out that total snowfall may approach or even exceed 40cm.

If that scenario materializes, it would place this event among the more significant snowfall events Toronto has seen in recent memory. At the same time, it is important to stress that totals will vary sharply over short distances depending on where this narrow band ultimately sets up.

Snow falling at this intensity, especially over a relatively short 12 to 16-hour window, is likely to cause major issues across the urban core of the Greater Toronto Area. Rapid accumulation during the afternoon and evening could overwhelm road crews, making it difficult to keep up with clearing operations.

It is very possible that some major routes could see closures if conditions deteriorate quickly, including portions of the DVP, the Gardiner Expressway and sections of the 400 series highways.

Although the snow is expected to gradually wind down overnight into Monday morning, impacts will linger well beyond the end of the snowfall. The Monday morning commute is likely to be heavily affected, with many roads still uncleared or partially cleared. This increases the likelihood of school bus cancellations and even potential school closures across the hardest hit regions.

The timeline for this storm begins during the overnight hours into early Sunday morning. Initial bands of light to moderate snow are expected to move into Deep Southwestern Ontario first.

Areas like Windsor and Chatham should see snow begin around 2 to 4 AM, with coverage and intensity increasing steadily through the morning hours.

As the morning progresses, the snow shield will expand northeastward, reaching London, Hamilton, Kitchener and the Niagara region by late morning. Snow may start off relatively light in these areas, but conditions will deteriorate as snowfall rates increase heading into the afternoon.

At the same time, a notable lake-driven feature is expected to develop over Lake Ontario. This feature may look like a “snow snake,” a narrow but intense band of lake effect snow that forms when cold Arctic air interacts with an unusual southeasterly wind flow. This is not a common setup, as southeasterly flows are typically associated with warmer air rather than when cold air is pushed in from the north or west.

This band is expected to first impact the northwestern shoreline of Lake Ontario, including portions of the Highway 401 corridor between Cobourg and Oshawa. Heavy snowfall rates are possible within this band even before the broader system snow arrives. In a short period of time, this could lay down 10 to 20cm of snow before noon in some areas.

By early afternoon, snowfall will ramp up significantly across much of Southern Ontario. More widespread, steady and heavy snow will overspread the Lake Erie shoreline and the Golden Horseshoe. The outer edge of the precipitation shield should reach areas from Barrie through Peterborough and into Kingston between roughly 11 AM and 1 PM.

One of the most critical elements of this forecast is how the system snow interacts with the lake effect band. As the main storm moves in, it is expected to absorb this lake effect band, but the band does not disappear. Instead, it continues as an embedded zone of enhanced snowfall, focused primarily on the eastern GTA, including Oshawa, Ajax and Whitby during the early afternoon. These areas will benefit from an added moisture source, resulting in higher snowfall rates than surrounding regions.

Snow will continue spreading northeast through the afternoon, eventually reaching Central Ontario and the Ottawa Valley by the mid to late afternoon. Similar to elsewhere, snow may begin on the lighter side but is expected to intensify into the evening hours for Eastern Ontario.

High-resolution model guidance continues to highlight an area of particularly intense snowfall rates across the Golden Horseshoe, driven by lake enhancement from Lake Ontario. Snowfall rates of 2 to 3cm per hour appear likely, with localized pockets potentially exceeding that where the embedded band becomes stationary.

The most intense part of this band may slowly drift westward into the Toronto area and linger for several hours during the late afternoon and early evening.

This is the window when snowfall could accumulate extremely quickly, potentially reaching 5cm per hour or more at times. Because this band will be very narrow, snowfall totals will vary dramatically from one neighborhood to the next. It is entirely possible for one part of the GTA to receive double the snowfall of another area only a few kilometres away.

Wind will also play a role, with gusts occasionally reaching 40 to 60 km/h. This will lead to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility. While widespread blizzard conditions are not currently expected, localized blizzard-like conditions with near zero visibility cannot be ruled out under the heaviest snowfall bands.

As the storm system pushes east into New England and Atlantic Canada, snowfall will begin to taper off across Southwestern Ontario during the evening hours. However, Eastern Ontario will just be reaching its peak snowfall during this time, with steady snow continuing through the evening from Kingston to Ottawa.

Across the Golden Horseshoe, conditions may actually worsen heading into Sunday evening as winds shift from easterly to northeasterly. This wind shift is expected to further intensify the lake effect band, allowing it to slide westward from Toronto into Mississauga, Oakville and eventually Burlington through the evening. Travel between Toronto and Hamilton during this period could be extremely difficult, and non-essential travel should be avoided if possible.

As Sunday night turns into early Monday morning, the bulk of the snowfall will become focused over Eastern Ontario as it winds down across most other parts of Southern Ontario.

The main exception will be the persistent lake effect band off Lake Ontario, which will now be free from the larger system. This band is expected to drift southward into Hamilton and potentially the northern Niagara region, including areas like Grimsby and St. Catharines, and could linger into the mid-morning hours on Monday.

For Eastern Ontario, snowfall should come to an end by around sunrise on Monday. However, the impacts will be far from over, as the amount of snow on the ground will almost certainly bring the Monday morning commute to a crawl.

When all is said and done, snowfall totals by Monday morning will be highly variable, especially in areas affected by lake enhancement. A widespread zone along the Lake Ontario shoreline through the Golden Horseshoe is expected to see 25 to 40cm of snow.

This includes Picton, Brighton, Cobourg, Oshawa, Pickering, Toronto, Vaughan, Brampton, Mississauga, Oakville, Burlington, Hamilton, St. Catharines and Niagara Falls. Within this zone, the highest totals near 35 to 40cm will be very localized where the most intense lake enhancement persists, while many areas will fall closer to the 25 to 30cm range.

A smaller and more targeted corridor, including Oshawa, Pickering, Toronto, Vaughan, Mississauga and Oakville, has the potential to exceed 40cm if the lake effect band becomes particularly intense or remains stationary for several hours. This will lead to dramatic differences in snowfall even between nearby neighbourhoods.

A broader area stretching from Windsor through London, Peterborough and into the Ottawa Valley can expect snowfall in the 15 to 25cm range. Some localized areas, particularly along the St. Lawrence River in Eastern Ontario, could see amounts closer to 30cm.

Snowfall totals will drop off farther northwest across Southern Ontario. Areas such as Sarnia, Goderich, Collingwood, Barrie, Orillia, Bancroft and Renfrew are currently forecast to receive 10 to 15cm. This zone remains highly sensitive to the exact northern edge of the precipitation shield, meaning totals could end up lower if the storm trends south, or higher if snowfall becomes more widespread than expected.

Finally, less than 10cm of snow is expected across Grey Bruce, Muskoka and Algonquin Park. For these regions, this will be a welcome break after enduring near continuous snow squall activity over the past week.

We know the real question on everyone’s mind is not how much snow is coming, but how many bags of storm chips are required to survive it. We’ve got you covered with our very non-scientific ‘storm chips’ forecast!

The heaviest snow is expected to focus along the western shoreline of Lake Ontario and extend into parts of the Greater Toronto Area, including Oshawa, Vaughan, Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, Oakville and Burlington.

With widespread totals expected in the 20-40cm range, this is the kind of snowfall that doesn’t disappear overnight. Dense urban areas tend to grind to a halt during storms like this, and snow removal can take several days before things feel remotely normal again.

For that reason, we’ve officially dusted off the pink crayons. If you’re in this zone, we recommend a strong 4-5 bags of storm chips and about 15-20 cups of your favourite storm beverages to get you through the digging out phase.

Elsewhere along the Lake Ontario shoreline, from Kingston through Peterborough and around the Golden Horseshoe into Kitchener, Hamilton and the Niagara Region, impacts should still be solid. This zone is looking at a respectable 3-4 bags of storm chips and roughly 10-15 cups of storm drinks to ride out the storm in comfort.

Across the rest of Eastern Ontario into Deep Southwestern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley, Barrie, and stretching down toward Windsor and London, snowfall totals in the 10-20cm range are expected.

While not extreme, this amount of snow will still make travel messy on Sunday and likely keep you home for the day. A sensible 2-3 bags of storm chips and 5-10 cups of storm drinks should do the trick here.

Further north into Central Ontario and Grey-Bruce, snowfall amounts look lighter, generally under 10cm. Considering what these areas have already endured from relentless snow squalls over the past week, this is almost a break. Still, it never hurts to be prepared, so we suggest 1-2 bags of storm chips and 2-5 storm drinks, just in case.

January 24, 2026

Another Major Snowstorm Targets the GTA and Parts of Southern Ontario on Sunday With Up to 20-40cm of Snow

January 24, 2026/ Brennen Perry

It has been just over a week since a high-impact snowstorm swept across Southern Ontario last Thursday, bringing widespread disruption and heavy snowfall to many communities. The hardest hit areas were centred on the Greater Toronto Area, where some neighbourhoods picked up more than 30 cm of snow in a relatively short period of time. That storm caused major travel issues, school disruptions, and a lengthy cleanup that is still fresh in many people’s minds.

That’s why the forecast for this upcoming weekend may sound eerily familiar. Another snowstorm is increasingly likely to impact many of the same areas that were hit last week. While this system will not be identical, there is once again the potential for significant snowfall, especially across the Golden Horseshoe. Some parts of the region could be digging out from over 20 cm of snow by Monday morning, with localized higher amounts still very much on the table.

A large and powerful winter storm that is expected to have a widespread impact across much of the Central and Eastern United States will begin pushing northward toward Southern Ontario on Sunday. This is a major system that will be producing destructive ice storm conditions in some areas and blizzard conditions in others south of the border. Thankfully, we will not see the worst of this storm locally.

Instead, Southern Ontario is expected to be brushed by the northeastern fringe of this expansive system. While that may sound like a glancing blow, it is more than enough to cause problems here. When combined with lake enhancement off Lake Ontario, this setup has the potential to produce a disruptive and high-impact snowstorm for the Golden Horseshoe and parts of Eastern Ontario.

One of the biggest challenges with this forecast continues to be how far northwest the main bands of precipitation are able to push. Weather models are still not fully aligned on the exact placement of the heaviest snow, and that will make a big difference in who sees the highest totals. Central and Southwestern Ontario currently sit right on the edge of the storm’s reach.

If the system tracks a bit further east, some of these areas could see very little snow at all. On the other hand, a slightly more western track would bring accumulating snow much deeper into Southern Ontario and significantly expand the impact zone.

Confidence is much higher for areas closer to and east of the Lake Ontario shoreline. Regardless of the exact track, these regions are expected to see accumulating snow.

What remains uncertain is just how high the totals will climb. In a lower impact scenario, snowfall amounts would generally range from 20 to 25 cm around the GTA, with 10 to 20 cm extending eastward along the Lake Ontario shoreline into Eastern Ontario.

In a higher-end or overperforming scenario, localized pockets could approach 40 cm of snow, especially in and around the Toronto area. In that case, totals over 20 cm could extend across much of Eastern Ontario, parts of Central Ontario, and even into portions of Deep Southwestern Ontario. At this point, both outcomes remain plausible depending on how the system evolves.

Regardless of the final totals, this storm is expected to produce hazardous travel conditions, especially as snowfall intensity ramps up Sunday afternoon and evening. Roads are likely to become snow-covered and slippery, with visibility reduced at times during heavier bursts of snow. Conditions should slowly begin to improve overnight into Monday morning, but the impacts will not end there.

Given the amount of snow that is likely to fall, there is a high probability of significant impacts to the Monday morning commute. This includes the strong potential for school bus cancellations and school closures across parts of Southern and Eastern Ontario. Even if snowfall tapers off before daybreak, cleanup operations will still be ongoing during the morning hours.

While we will have a more detailed look at timing in our final forecast late Saturday, current data suggests snowfall will begin to spread over parts of Southern Ontario late Sunday morning. Steady snow is expected to reach Deep Southwestern Ontario around 8 to 9 AM, gradually expanding northeastward through the day.

At the same time, there are growing signals that a lake effect snow band may develop over Lake Ontario and extend into areas north and northwest of the lake. This band could stretch from Belleville along the Highway 401 corridor, through Toronto, and westward toward Hamilton. This is an important detail, as lake enhancement could significantly boost snowfall totals in a narrow corridor.

High-resolution models are just beginning to come into range, but early indications show elevated snowfall totals along this corridor. In some cases, 10 to 20 cm of snow could fall even before the main system snow arrives later Sunday afternoon and evening. This would set the stage for very high totals once the storm fully ramps up.

The steadier, more widespread snow associated with the main system will continue to spread northeastward during the afternoon. Snowfall intensity is expected to increase through the Golden Horseshoe and into Central and Eastern Ontario as the evening progresses, with the heaviest rates focused near Lake Ontario.

Models are also hinting at the possibility of an embedded lake effect streamer developing and narrowly extending into parts of the western GTA. This includes Downtown Toronto and potentially Mississauga. If this band materializes, it would likely develop sometime during the afternoon and intensify into the evening hours.

The exact placement of this feature is highly uncertain and could shift around considerably. Because of that, snowfall totals could vary dramatically over relatively short distances. Where this band sets up, snowfall rates could double or even triple compared to surrounding areas, leading to very rapid accumulation in a short amount of time.

As the system begins to wind down overnight, this pocket of lake enhancement is expected to gradually weaken. Current model guidance suggests it may slowly sink southward through areas like Oakville, Burlington, and Hamilton as winds shift from easterly to northeasterly. This could prolong snowfall in those communities even as conditions improve elsewhere.

Most areas should see the snow taper off by around sunrise on Monday. However, parts of Eastern Ontario may see steadier snow linger through the morning hours before finally ending by the afternoon. Even after the snow stops, cleanup and travel impacts will continue for much of the day.

When it comes to potential snowfall totals, this is shaping up to be a storm with significant variability, even across small areas. The lake enhancement component means there will likely be a narrow corridor somewhere through the GTA where totals approach or even exceed 40 cm, while nearby locations receive much less.

At this time, the highest totals are expected along the northern and western shoreline of Lake Ontario. Snowfall amounts in this zone are forecast to range from 20 to 40 cm. This includes areas such as Picton, Belleville, Brighton, Cobourg, Oshawa, Pickering, Toronto, Vaughan, Mississauga, Oakville, and Burlington.

Somewhere between Oshawa and Oakville, localized pockets near 40 cm appear most likely, which seems to be likely focused on parts of Toronto. Outside of those hotspots, much of this corridor is expected to fall into the 20 to 30 cm range. There is still a chance that totals could exceed 40 cm if the lake enhancement band is stronger or lingers longer than expected, though recent model runs suggest less overperforming potential than earlier data.

The rest of the Golden Horseshoe and much of Eastern Ontario away from the immediate Lake Ontario shoreline can expect generally 15 to 30 cm of snow from this storm. This includes places like Niagara, Brantford, Kitchener, Guelph, Orangeville, Newmarket, Peterborough, Kingston, Brockville, Ottawa, and Cornwall. We expect to tighten this range further once the storm track becomes clearer.

For Southwestern Ontario into parts of Central Ontario, current projections suggest totals in the 10 to 20 cm range. However, there is expected to be a very sharp cutoff on the northwest edge of the precipitation shield. This means snowfall totals could drop off quickly over short distances.

If the system does not extend far enough northwest, areas east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay could end up being mostly clipped by the snow, with minimal accumulation. In contrast, Deep Southwestern Ontario including Windsor, Chatham, and London appears most likely to see at least 10 cm of snow regardless of the final track.

Overall confidence in this forecast is fairly high thanks to strong agreement among most weather models. That said, the storm is still more than 24 hours away. This forecast remains preliminary and could change if there is a last minute shift in the data. While a major surprise is unlikely given the current consistency, it cannot be completely ruled out.

Our final forecast will be published Saturday evening once the latest data is available. At that time, we will provide a more precise snowfall range and a detailed timing breakdown so you have a clearer picture of what to expect throughout the day on Sunday and into Monday.

January 23, 2026

Potentially Coldest Night in Years Ahead for Southern Ontario as Arctic Air Sends Wind Chills Below -30°C

January 23, 2026/ Brennen Perry

An intense blast of Arctic air is set to surge across Ontario late Friday and into Saturday morning, bringing what could be the coldest conditions many areas have experienced in years. While snow squalls continue to dominate the forecast in parts of the province, the extreme cold arriving behind them will quickly become the more dangerous and widespread threat.

According to the latest data, wind chills will plunge sharply on Friday evening. Much of Southern Ontario will see overnight wind chills fall into the -30°C range, with several regions dropping into the -35°C to -40°C range by early Saturday morning. These values are cold enough to cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

The coldest conditions are expected across Central and Northern Ontario, where the core of this Arctic air mass settles in. Wind chills near or below -40°C are likely across much of the north, including areas from Sudbury through North Bay. Some localized spots could briefly dip closer to -45°C.

Across cottage country and central sections of the province, including Muskoka, Parry Sound, Simcoe County, and Peterborough, wind chills between -35°C and -40°C look increasingly likely. This region has already been dealing with persistent snowfall, which will only add to the risk as stranded motorists or anyone caught outdoors for extended periods could be exposed to life-threatening cold very quickly.

The forecast shows much of the Greater Toronto Area, including Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, and Vaughan, dropping into the -30°C to -35°C wind chill range by Saturday morning. This could mark the coldest morning Toronto has seen since 2016.

Across the western GTA, Hamilton, and Niagara, temperatures should hover in the low -20s, though wind chills will still make it feel close to -30˚C. A similar pattern is expected for parts of Bruce and Huron counties closer to Lake Huron, where slightly milder air off the lake may keep temperatures a few degrees warmer.

Saturday daytime temperatures will remain very cold, though not as brutally cold as seen in the morning. Expect temperatures in the teens with the wind chill making it feel below -20°C in many areas. Overnight Saturday, wind chills may return back to near -30°C into Sunday morning.

Northern Ontario will bear the brunt of this event. Air temperatures are expected to drop toward -35°C, with wind chills approaching -45°C across a large portion of the region.

Some model guidance even suggests brief pockets of wind chills near -50°C, though confidence in those extreme values remains lower.

These conditions pose a serious risk to vulnerable individuals, particularly those who are unhoused or lack reliable access to warm shelter. Prolonged exposure to wind chills in the -30°C to -40°C range can become life threatening in a very short period of time. Even brief exposure during overnight hours can lead to frostbite or hypothermia, making this type of cold especially dangerous for people sleeping outdoors or in inadequately heated spaces.

The elderly are also at heightened risk during extreme cold events. Older adults may have reduced circulation, underlying health conditions, or difficulty sensing cold, all of which increase the risk of cold related illness. Those living alone or with limited mobility may struggle to maintain adequate indoor heating or may be unable to seek help quickly if something goes wrong.

Young children are another group that requires extra attention during this kind of cold. Their bodies lose heat more quickly, and they may not recognize early warning signs of frostbite or hypothermia. Even short trips outdoors without proper winter gear can become dangerous when wind chills drop this low.

Community members are encouraged to check in on neighbours, friends, and family, especially seniors or anyone known to be struggling with housing insecurity. Many municipalities and community organizations open warming centres during extreme cold events, and knowing where these resources are located can make a critical difference.

This kind of cold also places additional strain on infrastructure. Water mains are more vulnerable to freezing, older homes may struggle to retain heat, and power outages become more concerning when wind chills are this low. Anyone relying on supplemental heating should ensure proper ventilation, as carbon monoxide risk increases during prolonged cold spells.

Pet safety is another major concern during extreme cold events like this. Animals left outdoors for extended periods are at significant risk of frostbite and hypothermia, even if they are accustomed to winter conditions. Paw pads are especially vulnerable due to prolonged contact with snow and ice, and salt-treated surfaces can cause additional irritation.

January 23, 2026

No End in Sight for Simcoe County and Grey-Bruce as Endless Snow Squalls Bring the Risk of Over 50cm More Snow on Friday

January 23, 2026/ Brennen Perry

Here we go again, say it ain’t snow. It should come as no surprise to residents across the snowbelt east of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay that more snow is on the way to end the week. After a relentless stretch of lake effect activity, snow squalls are set to ramp back up on Friday as activity currently over Muskoka and the Bruce Peninsula drops southward into Simcoe County and Grey-Bruce.

These areas are no strangers to snow squalls at this point, as they have been dealing with them on and off for much of the past week. Simcoe County did manage to sneak in a brief break on Thursday, but that lull will be short lived. Friday is shaping up to be a sharp reminder of just how powerful these lake effect streamers can be, with snowfall totals quickly piling up once again. By Saturday morning, many communities could be digging out from an additional 25-50cm of snow.

In some localized areas, especially portions of southern Bruce County south of Owen Sound, snowfall totals could push even higher. Some model guidance continues to hint at locally over 50cm where bands become most persistent. On top of that, blowing snow will once again be a major concern. Wind gusts approaching 60 km/h will combine with an already deep snowpack to create widespread drifting. As a result, many local roads and highways are likely to remain closed, and that list could grow through the day Friday as conditions deteriorate.

As snow squalls begin to weaken overnight Friday into early Saturday, the focus will quickly shift to the cold. This setup is expected to deliver what could be the coldest night in years across much of Southern Ontario. Wind chills could plunge into the -40s in some areas, with nearly all of Southern Ontario seeing wind chills in the -30 range by Saturday morning.

Overnight, snow squall activity currently affecting Parry Sound and Muskoka is expected to migrate southward and settle somewhere between southern Muskoka and northern Parry Sound by mid-morning Friday. This band could become quite persistent as it drifts south, heavily impacting travel corridors.

Highway 400 between MacTier and Barrie and Highway 11 between Bracebridge and Orillia look especially vulnerable. Rapidly accumulating snowfall and poor visibility could lead to partial or full closures along these stretches as conditions worsen throughout the day.

By the afternoon, strong wind gusts in the 60 to 70 km/h range are expected to develop. This will significantly increase the risk of blowing snow and near zero visibility, making travel extremely hazardous even in areas not seeing the heaviest snowfall rates.

Attention will also turn to Lake Huron, where more organized lake effect activity is expected to develop east of the lake Friday afternoon. Current model guidance suggests the most intense and focused band will set up somewhere between Owen Sound and Kincardine, extending inland toward Hanover.

This band has the potential to lock in for an extended period through much of Friday afternoon and evening. Where it becomes stationary, snowfall totals could become extreme. Under the right conditions, some localized spots could see 50cm or more, with an outside chance of totals approaching 75 to 100cm if everything lines up just right. Hourly snowfall rates could approach 10cm at times, with very cold air helping boost snowfall ratios and intensify accumulations.

Additional lake effect activity is also expected to impact Huron and Perth counties, although this snow looks less intense and more spread out. Even so, gusty winds throughout the afternoon will create treacherous travel conditions, especially in open areas that are particularly prone to blowing and drifting snow.

Expect ongoing and possibly expanding highway closures across Grey-Bruce, Huron, and Perth counties throughout the day on Friday as conditions remain dangerous.

As we head into Friday night, the Georgian Bay snow squall affecting Simcoe County should gradually weaken and retreat back toward the shoreline around midnight. Snowfall rates will ease, but blowing snow may remain an issue for a time.

The Lake Huron snow squall impacting Grey-Bruce is expected to linger overnight, though it should slowly weaken heading into Saturday morning. As winds ease and the fetch shortens, bands will gradually retreat closer to the lake.

As always with lake effect snow, totals can vary dramatically over short distances due to the narrow and highly localized nature of these bands. That said, there is fairly strong model agreement that the hardest hit area will fall somewhere around Port Elgin, Chatsworth, and Hanover. An intense and persistent squall in this corridor could lead to over 50cm of snow by Saturday morning.

Communities such as Owen Sound, Flesherton, Mildmay, and Kincardine, along with Midland, Orillia, Wasaga Beach, and Gravenhurst, can expect widespread snowfall totals in the 25-50cm range. There is still some uncertainty with the exact placement of the Georgian Bay squall, with some models keeping it tighter and others spreading it out more. Because of that uncertainty, the zone for 25cm or more stretches from Gravenhurst south toward just north of Barrie, even though the actual hardest hit area will likely be smaller.

The City of Barrie sits right on the southern edge of the main snow squall zone. At this point, it appears Barrie will narrowly miss the worst of the snow, keeping totals closer to 15-25cm, especially toward the south end of the city. That said, there is still a chance the squall dips farther south than expected. One model does bring heavier snow into Barrie, which means locally higher totals closer to 35cm cannot be ruled out.

Elsewhere across Grey-Bruce and into northern sections of Huron, Perth, Wellington, and Dufferin counties, snowfall totals in the 15-25cm range look likely. Some localized areas could still end up closer to 30 or even 35cm, depending on how individual bands evolve.

Lower snowfall amounts are expected across the Greater Toronto Area. However, the Lake Huron squall could brush parts of the western Golden Horseshoe, bringing a quick few centimetres in spots. Farther east, including Durham Region and the Kawartha Lakes, the Georgian Bay squall could deliver around 5-10cm.

Little to no snow is expected across deep southwestern Ontario and far eastern Ontario, which is why those areas are not highlighted on the snowfall map.

While snow squalls begin to wind down overnight Friday, the cold will only continue to intensify. Saturday is shaping up to be potentially the coldest day many areas have experienced in years. Some locations, including Toronto, could be looking at their coldest Saturday morning since 2016.

Temperatures are expected to drop near -30˚C across central and eastern Ontario, with wind chills making it feel between -35˚C and -40˚C. Areas east of Lake Huron and around parts of the Golden Horseshoe may be slightly less cold, but still dangerously so.

Northern Ontario will be under the core of this polar air mass, with some of the coldest air on Earth spilling south. Temperatures there could dip near or below -35˚C, with wind chills approaching -45˚C across much of the region. Some model guidance even suggests wind chills near -50, though that remains uncertain.

Once the cold settles in, attention will quickly turn to the next potential system. A high-impact snowstorm is showing signs of developing and could bring significant snowfall across a wide swath of Southern Ontario heading into Monday. Current model trends suggest over 30cm of snow is possible in some areas, including parts of the Greater Toronto Area.

A preliminary forecast for that system will be issued on Friday as we continue to monitor trends and fine-tune the details. Stay tuned.

January 21, 2026

Snowy One-Two Punch Targets Southern Ontario Starting Wednesday as Alberta Clipper and Squalls Dump Up to 25 to 50 cm of Snow

January 21, 2026/ Brennen Perry

The story of the week so far across Southern Ontario has been the relentless snow squall activity that has been hammering the region, bringing treacherous travel conditions as a surge of Arctic air continues to sit overhead. These squalls have been anything but minor, producing frequent whiteouts, rapidly deteriorating road conditions, and dangerous travel at times.

The worst of the impacts on Tuesday was when intense snow squalls forced the closure of multiple stretches of Hwy 11 between Bracebridge and Orillia. Whiteout conditions combined with rapidly accumulating snow led to several accidents, leaving many drivers stranded and highlighting just how dangerous these squalls can become when they lock into place.

While the snow squalls are far from finished, the threat zone is expected to shift over the next few days as winds gradually turn more westerly. This change in wind direction will push the most persistent squall activity away from areas that were hit earlier this week and refocus it further west and north.

As a result, locations such as the Bruce Peninsula, Muskoka, Parry Sound, and even areas further inland like Haliburton and Bancroft are expected to see the most significant impacts through the second half of the week.

Snow squall activity will briefly weaken during the day on Wednesday, but this will not be because the atmosphere is calming down. Instead, an Alberta Clipper is expected to move into Southern Ontario beginning Wednesday morning, temporarily disrupting the lake effect setup.

This clipper will spread a shield of steady light to moderate snow across Southwestern Ontario, extending through the Golden Horseshoe and into Eastern Ontario as the day goes on. While this system is not expected to produce extreme snowfall amounts on its own, it will still have notable impacts due to its timing and the already poor road conditions in many areas.

Compared to the storm some locations experienced last week, snowfall totals with this system will be more modest. However, the combination of falling snow, reduced visibility, and slick road surfaces could still make both the morning and evening commute hazardous in spots.

At this point, we are expecting a general 5 to 10 cm from the Alberta Clipper. As is typical with these systems, snowfall will not be uniform. Alberta Clippers are often moisture-starved, which can lead to dry pockets where snowfall totals underperform, while narrow bands of heavier snow can locally boost amounts closer to 15 cm.

Snow squalls that are already developed east of Georgian Bay will continue to impact the Parry Sound and Muskoka region through the overnight hours and into Wednesday morning. Travel conditions in these areas will remain poor early in the day, especially where bands remain persistent.

As the clipper approaches, winds will begin to shift by mid-morning, weakening the squalls and temporarily shutting down the lake effect snow machine. This will offer a short-lived improvement in conditions for areas east of Georgian Bay before the next phase of the pattern kicks in.

The outer bands of snow associated with the Alberta Clipper will begin to move into Deep Southwestern Ontario around sunrise, affecting areas such as Windsor, Sarnia, and Chatham. From there, the snow will steadily expand northeastward through the late morning hours.

By midday, snow will be falling across much of Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe and Central Ontario. Snowfall rates are not expected to be overly intense, generally topping out around 1-2 cm per hour, but wind gusts of 40 to 60 km/h could still lead to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility.

Model guidance is also hinting at the development of a dry slot north of the GTA, particularly around Lake Simcoe. This includes areas such as Collingwood, Barrie, and parts of York Region, where snowfall rates could be noticeably lower.

This is a common issue with Alberta Clippers. While the Great Lakes can often help enhance snowfall by adding moisture, regions around Lake Simcoe may miss out when winds are predominantly southerly. In this setup, they sit outside the direct influence of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario moisture feeds.

On the flip side, the Toronto to Kingston corridor is expected to benefit from Lake Ontario enhancement. This added moisture could push snowfall totals closer to 10 to 15 cm in this zone, slightly higher than surrounding areas.

This enhanced snowfall is also expected to coincide with the evening commute, particularly along Hwy 401 east of Toronto toward Kingston. Drivers should be prepared for rapidly changing conditions, with visibility dropping quickly at times as heavier bursts of snow move through.

Light snow will also spread into the Ottawa Valley by early afternoon. However, snowfall totals will likely taper off the further north you go as the influence of Lake Ontario weakens. Ottawa itself may only pick up a few centimetres by the time the snow winds down Wednesday evening.

Snow from the clipper is expected to gradually taper off from west to east by the late afternoon or early evening as the system exits Eastern Ontario. Unfortunately, this break will be brief for snowbelt regions.

As the system departs, lake effect snow is expected to rapidly redevelop overnight Wednesday as winds settle into a southwesterly direction. This will allow the lake effect machine to roar back to life.

The brunt of the snow squall activity overnight will be focused on the Bruce Peninsula, Parry Sound, and North Muskoka. At times, these squalls could stretch further inland toward areas like Sundridge and even North Bay.

Travel conditions overnight into Thursday are expected to be very poor. Snowfall rates may become intense within the strongest bands, and it is quite possible that sections of Hwy 400 or Hwy 11 could see temporary closures if snow accumulates faster than crews can keep up. Travel in these areas is highly discouraged.

By sunrise Thursday, winds are expected to gradually turn more westerly. This shift will cause the main squall to sink southward into Muskoka, targeting locations such as Bracebridge, Port Carling, Baysville, Port Sydney, Rosseau, and MacTier.

Some model guidance suggests this squall could become nearly stationary through much of the day Thursday. If this scenario verifies, snowfall totals could quickly climb, with some areas potentially exceeding 50 cm by the end of Thursday.

Other models suggest a more oscillating band that shifts north and south throughout the day. While this would limit extreme totals in one single location, it would spread significant snowfall across a broader portion of Muskoka and Parry Sound.

As we head into Thursday afternoon, the impacts of the Georgian Bay squall may extend beyond the typical snowbelt. Strengthening winds could allow the band to push further inland, potentially reaching parts of Eastern Ontario and even the Ottawa Valley.

Locations such as Bancroft, Smiths Falls, Renfrew, and Ottawa could see several hours of heavy snow, leading to sudden whiteout conditions right during the evening commute. These whiteouts can occur with very little warning, making it critical for drivers to remain alert and be ready to adjust their driving immediately.

It could also bring a quick 5-10cm to the Ottawa Valley, which, combined with the Alberta Clipper, puts them in the 5-15cm range despite missing the worst of the clipper.

Additional lake effect snow is also possible east of Lake Huron during the day on Thursday, affecting Grey Bruce, along with parts of Huron and Perth Counties. While models are not showing a well-organized band at this time, wind gusts near 60 km/h could still lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility.

Snow squall activity is likely to persist into Thursday night and possibly into Friday morning. This forecast cuts off at the end of Thursday, with a separate update planned to cover Friday and beyond.

In terms of snowfall totals, most areas away from the lake effect are expected to see around 5 to 10 cm from the Alberta Clipper alone. Some pockets will fall short of that, while others may exceed it slightly, depending on lake enhancement.

That is why regions not expecting lake effect snow are generally placed in the 5 to 15 cm range. This includes much of Eastern Ontario, parts of the eastern GTA, and most of Southwestern Ontario.

Exceptions include areas northwest of the GTA, such as Barrie, Keswick, Bradford, Orangeville, and Angus, as well as Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Leamington, and Chatham. These locations are expected to see less moisture and may remain below 5 cm. The same applies to the western GTA and Hamilton.

Once lake effect snow is factored in, totals increase quickly east of Georgian Bay. This includes snowfall from early Wednesday before the clipper arrives and the more intense squalls that follow on Thursday.

Snowfall totals of 25 to 50 cm are expected for the Bruce Peninsula, including Wiarton, Lions Head, and Tobermory, as well as areas east of Georgian Bay such as Bracebridge, Huntsville, and Parry Sound. Muskoka in particular has the potential to exceed 50 cm if the squall becomes stationary on Thursday.

Further south and east, areas such as Midland, Gravenhurst, Minden, Haliburton, and Bancroft can expect around 5 to 10 cm from the system, with an additional 10 to 15 cm from lake effect snow. This puts totals in the 15 to 25 cm range, with locally higher amounts possible.

Southern Grey-Bruce, extending into portions of Huron and Perth Counties, including Owen Sound, Meaford, Hanover, and Listowel, is also expected to end up in the 15 to 25 cm range by the time all is said and done.

January 19, 2026

Southern Ontario Plunges Into the Deep Freeze With Dangerous Blizzard Conditions on Monday

January 19, 2026/ Brennen Perry

That January thaw is now firmly in the rearview mirror across Southern Ontario after a major winter storm last week reminded us that we are still very much in the heart of winter. That storm brought widespread snowfall to the region, with many areas picking up significant accumulations and some seeing totals in the 30 to 50 cm range by the time it wrapped up on Thursday.

While we are not expecting another large, widespread system-related snowstorm of that magnitude in the immediate future, the pattern is far from quiet. In fact, the bigger story going forward will be a prolonged stretch of much colder weather as we head deeper into January. A true deep freeze is set to take hold beginning early this upcoming week and is expected to persist for much of the remainder of the month.

With temperatures plunging and the Great Lakes still largely ice-free, the setup becomes ideal for an active period of lake effect snow. Cold polar air moving over relatively warm lake waters is the perfect fuel source for snow squalls, and that lake effect snow machine is about to kick into high gear.

Ironically, this could end up being one of the last notable lake effect events of the season, as colder temperatures later this month will eventually lead to increasing ice coverage. Once the lakes begin to freeze over, the moisture supply is cut off, and snow squalls shut down. For now, though, the lakes are open and very capable of producing heavy snow.

That lake effect machine is expected to come roaring to life starting on Monday. By the time activity winds down late Tuesday, some communities could be digging out from substantial snowfall. Totals of 25 to 50 cm are possible in parts of Grey Bruce, Simcoe County and areas north of Parry Sound, although, as always with lake effect snow, not everyone will see those kinds of amounts.

Snow squall activity is expected to begin organizing overnight into Monday morning along the eastern Lake Huron shoreline. This activity will expand throughout the morning, affecting Grey Bruce, the Bruce Peninsula, and regions northeast of Georgian Bay. Additional lake effect bands are also expected to develop off Lakes Erie and Ontario, impacting parts of the Niagara region and Prince Edward County as early as Monday morning.

Conditions will deteriorate quickly on Monday afternoon as strong winds develop across much of Southern Ontario. Wind gusts of 60 to 90 km per hour are expected, and when combined with ongoing snow squalls, this could lead to dangerous blizzard conditions, particularly east of Lake Huron and in Prince Edward County.

The worst conditions are expected during the afternoon and early evening hours, with blowing snow and near zero visibility at times. There is also some concern that blowing snow could briefly impact parts of the Golden Horseshoe around the evening commute.

Through Monday night and into Tuesday morning, attention shifts toward a potentially intense and long-lasting snow squall. This band may set up across the Bruce Peninsula, extend across Georgian Bay, and come ashore into Simcoe County and possibly the Kawartha Lakes.

Some models suggest this squall could lock into place for 6 to 12 hours before finally lifting northward by Tuesday afternoon. Where it becomes stationary, snowfall rates could be intense, and accumulations could climb rapidly in a short period of time.

Adding to the concern will be the arrival of bitterly cold air late Monday. Temperatures will fall sharply, and by Tuesday morning, wind chills could make it feel like minus 20 degrees or colder across much of Southern Ontario. In some areas, wind chills could dip even lower.

When combined with heavy snow and strong winds, conditions could quickly become life-threatening for anyone who becomes stranded. Travel is strongly discouraged in the hardest hit regions beginning late Monday morning and continuing through Tuesday.

Lake effect snow will continue to organize overnight into Monday morning along Lake Huron, particularly around Grey Bruce. Bands will extend across the Bruce Peninsula and into areas northeast of Georgian Bay, including Parry Sound and even as far inland as North Bay at times.

While there is still some disagreement in the models regarding exact intensity, confidence is high enough to expect very poor driving conditions due to blowing snow and rapidly changing visibility, especially northeast of Georgian Bay, where the strongest bands are most likely.

There is also a more uncertain, but still concerning, snow squall signal for the Niagara region and the northeastern shoreline of Lake Ontario. The Canadian model shows a well-organized band coming off Lake Erie, moving across the Niagara region, then redeveloping over Lake Ontario and making landfall again across Prince Edward County and into the Kingston area. Other models are less aggressive with this scenario, particularly with the Lake Erie component, but there is better agreement that the Lake Ontario squalls will develop.

If this scenario plays out, it could lead to poor conditions and brief whiteouts during the Monday morning commute in parts of Niagara, as well as along portions of the Highway 401 corridor between Oshawa and Kingston.

By Monday afternoon, lake effect activity is expected to persist across Grey Bruce and areas northeast of Georgian Bay, although shifting winds may cause bands to weaken and reorganize at times. In the Niagara region, any squall activity should gradually sink south and east into upstate New York, with Niagara Falls and Fort Erie likely among the last locations to see conditions improve.

As winds shift, there is also a risk that a narrow but intense squall could sweep through Eastern Ontario during the afternoon, affecting areas such as Kingston, Brockville and Cornwall with sudden bursts of heavy snow and near zero visibility.

For many areas on Monday, the main impact may not be total snowfall amounts, but rather the combination of strong winds and blowing snow. Wind gusts of 60 to 90 km per hour across Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe will make travel extremely difficult in open areas. East of Lake Huron, widespread road closures are very likely through the afternoon and early evening hours as conditions become too dangerous for travel.

Prince Edward County is also at risk of blizzard conditions if snow squalls persist there through the afternoon. Even modest snowfall rates can create severe conditions when combined with strong winds and exposed roadways.

Winds are expected to ease slightly on Monday evening, but blowing snow may continue overnight wherever squalls remain active.

As wind direction becomes better aligned during the evening, lake effect snow off Lake Huron may push further inland. This could allow poor visibility and blowing snow to extend into areas such as Kitchener, Barrie, Muskoka and the northern GTA around the dinner hour.

Confidence continues to increase for a more prolific snow squall to set up overnight Monday into Tuesday. This band may stretch across the Bruce Peninsula and move ashore from Georgian Bay into areas such as Midland, Barrie and Orillia. At times, it could reach far inland, potentially impacting the Kawartha Lakes and even the Peterborough area.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact placement. Some models focus the heaviest snowfall over northern Simcoe County, including Midland and Orillia, while others bring the core of the squall closer to Barrie. Regardless of exact placement, this squall could persist through Tuesday morning, remaining nearly stationary for several hours. Snowfall rates in the heaviest pockets could approach 10 cm per hour, which would lead to significant accumulations in a short amount of time.

What makes this setup particularly dangerous is what it will be accompanied by at the same time. This intense snow squall is expected to coincide with bitterly cold temperatures. Wind chills will drop into the minus 20s and even minus 30s in some areas starting Monday evening and continuing overnight into Tuesday morning. In these conditions, frostbite and hypothermia can develop very quickly, sometimes in just minutes.

If someone becomes stranded during one of these squalls, the situation can become life-threatening rapidly. Emergency services may struggle to reach those in need due to road closures and near-zero visibility, and snowplows simply cannot keep up with snowfall rates of 5 to 10 cm per hour. This is why staying off the roads in affected regions is strongly advised.

By Tuesday afternoon, the most persistent squall should lift north of Simcoe County and move into Muskoka and Parry Sound. The band may briefly reorganize Tuesday night ahead of another potential system arriving on Wednesday.

That system on Wednesday could bring a more widespread snowfall of around 5 to 15 cm across much of Southern Ontario. More details on that will be shared in a separate forecast closer to midweek.

When it comes to snowfall totals from this lake effect event, it is important to remember how localized these squalls can be. Accumulations can vary dramatically over short distances depending on where bands set up, how long they persist, and whether they wobble or remain stationary.

Our forecast highlights areas most at risk for higher totals, but not everyone within those zones will see the same amounts, and some locations could overperform if a band shifts unexpectedly.

The highest snowfall totals are most likely across Grey Bruce, particularly the Bruce Peninsula, where 25 to 50 cm of snow is possible. Areas on the peninsula are more likely to reach the upper end of that range, while locations farther south, such as Hanover and Flesherton, may be closer to 25 cm or could even fall short if bands stay to the north.

A similar 25 to 50 cm potential exists southeast of Georgian Bay, including Midland, Wasaga Beach, Barrie, Orillia, Washago and Beaverton. Areas northeast of Georgian Bay, north of Parry Sound, including Pointe au Baril and Britt, are also within this higher snowfall zone.

Amounts of 15 to 25 cm are expected for places such as Goderich, Point Clark, Wingham, Listowel, Minto, Shelburne, Lindsay, Fenelon Falls, Coboconk, Gravenhurst and Parry Sound.

Along the Lake Ontario shoreline, areas northeast of the lake, including Brighton, Belleville, Picton, Napanee and Kingston could also see 15 to 25 cm, with locally higher totals possible in spots like Picton if a band locks in.

The Niagara region, including Fort Erie, Niagara Falls, Niagara on the Lake, St. Catharines and Welland, is looking at generally 5 to 15 cm. Most locations will likely be closer to the lower end of that range, with Niagara Falls and Fort Erie having the best chance of seeing higher totals if a squall sets up nearby.

Elsewhere, including Woodstock, Kitchener, Fergus, Guelph, Orangeville, Keswick, Port Perry, Peterborough, Bracebridge, Huntsville, Haliburton, Cobourg and Brockville, totals of 5 to 15 cm are possible. Many of these areas will end up closer to 5 cm, but isolated locations could see higher amounts depending on how lake effect bands evolve.

For the GTA, London, deep Southwestern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley, snowfall amounts are expected to remain under 5 cm, although gusty winds and blowing snow may still impact travel at times.

January 14, 2026

High-Impact Snowstorm to Disrupt Thursday Morning Commute for Toronto, London, Ottawa and Eastern Ontario With Up to 20-40cm of Snow

January 14, 2026/ Brennen Perry

After a brief break from winter that allowed much of Southern Ontario to enjoy a bit of a so-called “January thaw”, it is becoming very clear that winter is far from finished. A sharp and notable cool down is now underway across the province, and by Thursday morning, temperatures will plunge well below seasonal levels.

Many areas across Southern Ontario will see air temperatures drop to near or below -15°C, and when the wind is factored in, it could feel closer to -20°C to -30°C in some communities.

While the bitter cold will certainly be noticeable, it will not be the main story over the next 24 to 36 hours. Attention now turns to a developing winter storm that forecast models have struggled to resolve right up until the last minute. This system is expected to spread a broad swath of steady snowfall across much of Southern Ontario, with the potential for significant impacts in highly populated and heavily travelled regions.

Earlier forecasts suggested this would be a fairly routine winter event, with snowfall amounts in the 5 to 15 centimetre range for the hardest hit areas. That type of snowfall is very common this time of year and would have resulted in some slow travel, but nothing overly disruptive. However, the latest model runs have dramatically shifted, showing a much stronger and more organized storm system taking shape.

Over the past several model cycles, guidance has intensified considerably. We are now tracking what could become the most widespread and impactful snowfall event of the season so far for parts of Southern Ontario. Some areas may see snowfall totals that rival or exceed anything experienced so far this winter.

Based on the latest data, we are now forecasting widespread snowfall totals in the 20 to 40 centimetre range across a large corridor stretching from Southwestern Ontario through the Golden Horseshoe and into Eastern Ontario.

Snow has already begun in some areas and is expected to continue intensifying through Wednesday evening, persisting through much of the day on Thursday before finally tapering off later in the afternoon or early evening.

This higher impact zone covers a very large portion of the province, including some of the most densely populated regions. This alone raises concerns about travel disruptions, school and business impacts, and the potential for extended cleanup times once the snow finally ends.

In addition to the steady system snowfall, there is also the potential for snow squalls to become embedded within the system. These are most likely to develop south of Lake Huron, particularly overnight into Thursday morning. Areas between Sarnia and London, including Lambton County and parts of Chatham-Kent, could see enhanced snowfall rates as lake enhancement adds extra moisture to the system.

The worst travel conditions are expected to occur overnight and into Thursday morning. By the time many people wake up, there will already be a substantial amount of snow on the ground, with steady snowfall ongoing. This sets the stage for a very difficult Thursday morning commute across much of Southern Ontario.

If travel can be avoided in the hardest hit areas, especially during the morning and early afternoon hours on Thursday, it would be strongly advised. For those who must travel, expect significant delays, poor visibility at times, and rapidly deteriorating road conditions, particularly in urban areas that have not yet seen a snowfall of this magnitude this season.

While there is growing agreement among models that a major snowfall event is likely, confidence is still not especially high when it comes to the exact placement of the heaviest bands. The forecast remains volatile, with some models continuing to shift the storm track slightly north or south. This has created a very sharp snowfall gradient, meaning small changes in the storm’s position could result in big differences in totals over short distances.

In some cases, communities could see over 20 centimetres of snow, while locations just 30 or 40 kilometres away may see less than half of that. This makes pinpointing exact totals extremely challenging and increases the risk of some areas either underperforming or significantly exceeding the forecast.

Snow has already begun across Deep Southwestern Ontario and will continue spreading northeastward through the evening. By around midnight, snowfall should be widespread across much of Southwestern Ontario and expanding into the Golden Horseshoe, including the Niagara region and western GTA.

For many locations, snowfall will begin as steady and moderate, gradually increasing in intensity through the overnight hours. Snowfall rates will generally sit around 1 to 2 centimetres per hour initially, which on its own may not seem overly concerning. The issue is the duration of the event, as these rates will persist for 12 hours or more in some areas, allowing snow to pile up over time.

The heaviest snowfall overnight is expected to be focused between Sarnia and London, where lake enhancement off Lake Huron may briefly boost snowfall rates higher. These heavier bursts could make travel especially difficult overnight and into the early morning hours.

Wind will also become a factor as the storm progresses. Gusts will increase to between 40 and 60 kilometres per hour in some areas overnight. When combined with falling snow, this will lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility, particularly in open and rural areas.

Conditions are expected to continue deteriorating into Thursday morning as snowfall intensity increases across much of the Golden Horseshoe. Areas from London through Hamilton and into the Greater Toronto Area could see periods of heavier snow during the morning hours. In the most intense bands, snowfall rates may briefly reach 2 to 4 centimetres per hour, which will make it very difficult for road crews to keep up.

Unfortunately, this lines up almost perfectly with the Thursday morning rush hour. Travel across the GTA and surrounding regions will be extremely slow, and in some cases nearly impossible, especially on secondary roads. If you can delay travel or work from home, Thursday morning would be an ideal time to do so.

Snow will also spread into Eastern Ontario overnight and early Thursday morning. The Ottawa area is expected to see snow arrive around or just before the morning commute, with conditions worsening through the late morning and early afternoon hours.

One of the most important details we are still watching closely is the northern cutoff of the heaviest snow. As shown on the forecast map, there is a sharp transition zone near areas such as Barrie and Peterborough. The American HRRR model suggests that locations just north of this line may see very little snow, while those south of it could see totals exceeding 20 centimetres.

Other model solutions shift this cutoff further south, which would place parts of the GTA closer to the lower snowfall edge. Meanwhile, some guidance shifts it further north, allowing areas like Barrie and Peterborough to see much higher totals. This uncertainty is why confidence drops significantly near this transition zone.

Another key factor enhancing snowfall totals is the colder air moving in behind the system. By Thursday morning, many parts of Southern Ontario will feel like -20°C or colder once you factor in the wind chill.

As temperatures drop, the snow becomes lighter and fluffier. Colder air allows snowflakes to be less dense, which means the same amount of moisture can produce more snow on the ground. This is known as a higher snow-to-liquid ratio, and it is one reason totals may end up higher than initially expected.

Through the late morning hours on Thursday, heavy snow is expected to continue across the Golden Horseshoe while spreading further east into Eastern Ontario.

In the west, areas near Lake Huron and Deep Southwestern Ontario should begin to see snowfall gradually taper off toward the end of the morning.

By around noon, steady snow should still be falling from the Golden Horseshoe eastward into Eastern Ontario. The Niagara region and eastern portions of the GTA may remain under heavier snowfall for the first part of the afternoon before intensity slowly begins to decrease.

Eastern Ontario may end up seeing the worst conditions during the early to mid-afternoon hours. Snowfall rates here are expected to range between 1 and 3 centimetres per hour and could linger for several hours before tapering off later in the day.

Snow should finally begin to move out of most areas by late afternoon or early evening, though a few lingering flurries may persist into the evening across Eastern Ontario.

The most challenging aspect of this storm remains the tight snowfall gradient. Small shifts in storm track will make a big difference in totals, and models continue to disagree on exactly where that cutoff will set up. This means forecast amounts could change with little notice.

After reviewing all available guidance, we have put together a snowfall forecast that reflects the most likely scenario based on the majority of model data. However, this is one of those events where nearly every model offers a slightly different outcome, and it would not take much for totals to shift in either direction.

The highest snowfall totals appear most likely in a corridor stretching from Sarnia through London, across the entire Golden Horseshoe, and into Eastern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley. These areas can expect widespread totals of 20 to 40 centimetres, with isolated pockets possibly approaching or exceeding 50 centimetres.

This includes communities such as Sarnia, Chatham, London, Woodstock, Tillsonburg, Brantford, Niagara Falls, Hamilton, Kitchener, Guelph, Mississauga, Toronto, Oshawa, Belleville, Tweed, Kingston, Smiths Falls, Renfrew, Ottawa, Brockville and Cornwall.

Slightly lower totals in the 10 to 20 centimetre range are expected for areas like Windsor, Leamington, Grand Bend, Goderich, Hanover, Orangeville, Newmarket, Peterborough and Bancroft. This is also the zone with the lowest confidence, as some of these locations could end up with significantly more or less snow depending on where the cutoff ultimately sets up.

Further north and west, snowfall amounts drop off quickly. Areas such as Owen Sound, Barrie and Pembroke are expected to see less than 10 centimetres of accumulation, with little to no snowfall expected north of Orillia.

These totals remain subject to change, and adjustments are likely as the storm unfolds. We will be closely monitoring conditions throughout Thursday and will provide real-time updates as we see how the storm is evolving on radar and through observations.

January 06, 2026

Southern Ontario Faces Ice Threat Then Snow as Fast Moving Winter System Disrupts Tuesday Travel

January 06, 2026/ Brennen Perry

A fast changing winter system is expected to sweep through much of Southern Ontario during the day on Tuesday, bringing a messy mix of precipitation types and rapidly changing conditions. While this is not expected to be a blockbuster storm on its own, the combination of freezing rain followed by snow could still create localized impacts, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

The first part of this system will arrive Tuesday morning and early afternoon, with freezing rain becoming the dominant concern for several regions. Widespread freezing rain is expected to develop across the higher elevations northwest of the GTA, extending into areas north of Lake Simcoe and along the Lake Ontario shoreline from Peterborough eastward toward Kingston. These elevated regions tend to hang onto colder air longer, making them more vulnerable to icing during marginal setups like this one.

Freezing rain is expected to begin developing across parts of Southwestern Ontario east of Lake Huron, including the Kitchener area and the Dundalk Highlands, by the late morning hours on Tuesday. From there, the freezing rain shield is forecast to spread north and eastward through the afternoon, reaching areas around Lake Simcoe such as Barrie, along with York Region, Durham Region, Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough and eventually Kingston.

In some locations, the precipitation may initially fall as ice pellets during the early afternoon before transitioning over to freezing rain for a few hours. This could help slightly limit ice accretion at first, but any freezing rain will still make untreated roads, sidewalks and elevated surfaces quite slick as temperatures remain near or below freezing.

For the GTA, the freezing rain threat looks more limited, but it cannot be ruled out entirely. There could be an hour or two of freezing rain during the afternoon, especially in the northern parts of the region, before precipitation transitions over to light snow by the evening. Meanwhile, areas in Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Niagara region are expected to remain mostly on the rain side of this system, with temperatures hovering in the low single digits above freezing for much of the event.

One of the more unusual aspects of this system is what happens after the freezing rain ends. While ice accretion amounts are expected to generally remain manageable, in the range of 2 to 5 millimetres for areas northwest of the GTA into Simcoe County and eastward through Peterborough and Kingston, there will not be a quick or clean warm-up. Instead, colder air is expected to surge back in, overpowering the warm layer aloft.

As this colder air deepens, precipitation is forecast to transition back to snow by the early evening and continue into the overnight hours across Central and Eastern Ontario, as well as the higher elevations northwest of the GTA. This changeover could happen fairly quickly once it begins, leading to periods of steady snowfall through Tuesday night.

Snowfall totals from this second phase of the system are expected to range from 5 to 10 centimetres across many of the same areas that experienced freezing rain earlier in the day. This includes parts of Simcoe County, Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough and areas toward Kingston, as well as elevated terrain northwest of the GTA.

While neither the ice accretion nor the snowfall amounts are particularly extreme on their own, the combined impact could be more significant. Even light ice accretion can weaken tree branches and add extra weight to power lines, and when followed by several centimetres of heavy, wet snow, the risk of isolated power outages and downed branches increases.

Elsewhere, including the GTA, regions east of Lake Huron and parts of northern Central and Eastern Ontario, snowfall totals are expected to be lighter, generally in the 2 to 5 centimetre range. This should still be enough to create slick travel conditions Tuesday evening and overnight, especially as temperatures drop back below freezing.

For the Ottawa region, this system looks less impressive overall. Precipitation amounts appear limited, and snowfall totals may struggle to reach the 2 centimetre mark by the time everything wraps up.

As always with systems like this, small changes in temperature can make a big difference in precipitation type and impacts. Drivers should be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions throughout the day on Tuesday, especially in areas that see freezing rain followed by accumulating snow.

January 04, 2026

Quick Blast of Heavy Snow May Impact the Morning Commute in Southern Ontario With Up to 15cm of Snow on Monday

January 04, 2026/ Brennen Perry

It has certainly been a busy start to 2026 across parts of Southern Ontario, especially in the snowbelt regions. Relentless snow squalls over the past week have brought widespread travel disruptions along with staggering snowfall totals, with some areas picking up an incredible 50 to 100cm of snow in a relatively short period of time.

While we managed to catch a bit of a break through the weekend, that quieter stretch will be short-lived. The first full week of the new year is shaping up to be an active one, with several rounds of messy winter weather expected to move through Southern Ontario over the next few days.

The next system arrives early Monday in the form of a fast-moving Alberta clipper. Unfortunately, the timing could not be much worse. With many people heading back to work and school after the holiday break, this system is expected to sweep through during the heart of the Monday morning commute.

Snow is expected to break out across Southwestern Ontario and quickly expand northeastward into Central Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe. While this will not be a major snowfall event by snowbelt standards, the intensity and timing of the snow could still cause notable travel issues.

Snowfall totals are not expected to be extreme, especially compared to what areas east of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay have been dealing with recently.

However, widespread amounts of 8 to 15cm are possible in the hardest hit regions. The key factor here is that much of this snow is expected to fall within just a few hours, which significantly increases its impact compared to a longer duration, lighter snowfall.

This clipper system is expected to move through fairly quickly, with conditions gradually improving by Monday afternoon or early evening. However, the active pattern will not take long to reload.

A second system is already lining up to arrive beginning Tuesday afternoon and continuing into Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty surrounding the exact track of this system, which will ultimately determine who sees snow, ice, or rain.

At this point, areas closer to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario appear most at risk for a period of freezing rain, potentially followed by heavy rain as warmer air pushes northward. Further north into Central and Eastern Ontario, colder air may hold on longer, leading to another round of accumulating snow with totals in the 5 to 15cm range possible.

Looking even further ahead, we are also monitoring two additional systems that could impact Southern Ontario toward the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Early indications suggest much of Southern Ontario may start out on the rain side of the system on Friday. However, colder air could work its way south by Saturday, allowing rain to transition back to snow.

It is far too early to pin down exact impacts, but this system will have access to a large amount of moisture. If colder air arrives sooner or proves more stubborn than currently expected, the risk for significant snowfall or even prolonged freezing rain would increase.

Turning back to Monday’s clipper, the first bands of snow are expected to enter Southern Ontario from the west overnight into the early morning hours. Snow should develop along the Lake Huron and Georgian Bay shoreline by mid-morning, becoming steady and occasionally heavy.

By late morning, snow will spread eastward into Central Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe. With this occurring during peak commuting hours, expect slower travel and reduced visibility, especially for those who may be easing back into winter driving after the holidays.

Blowing and drifting snow may further reduce visibility, particularly in areas east of Lake Huron where deep snowbanks are already in place. Even moderate winds will be enough to cause drifting in open areas and along rural roadways.

Conditions are expected to deteriorate the most by the late morning hours around Lake Simcoe and into parts of the Greater Toronto Area. During this time, hourly snowfall rates could briefly reach 2 to 3cm, which would qualify as heavy snow. This can quickly overwhelm road crews and lead to rapidly deteriorating road conditions.

As the system continues east, light snow will begin reaching Eastern Ontario while snowfall starts to taper off closer to Lake Huron. Areas along the Lake Erie shoreline and into Deep Southwestern Ontario will largely be spared from the worst of the snow, with the bulk of the moisture tracking north of these regions.

Snowfall intensity will gradually decrease through the early afternoon as the system moves away. Steadier snow will linger across Central and Eastern Ontario, while areas such as Kitchener and the GTA see snow slowly taper off as the system lifts north of Lake Simcoe.

Some lingering light snow could persist into the early evening hours for parts of Eastern Ontario, including areas near Kingston and Brockville, before finally coming to an end.

There is fairly strong agreement among forecast models when it comes to overall snowfall placement. Most guidance supports a swath of 10 to 15cm stretching from Grey-Bruce through Central Ontario, into the northern GTA, Peterborough, and extending eastward toward Kingston. This zone may also extend into parts of southern Northeastern Ontario.

For our forecast map, we have opted to lower the top range slightly to 8 to 15cm rather than a more aggressive 10 to 15cm. This accounts for the possibility of some underperformance near the southern edge of the snow band, especially through parts of Toronto. Clippers are notorious for sharp gradients and occasional dry slots, which could keep totals lower in some locations.

Across the Goderich to Kitchener and Hamilton corridor, snowfall amounts of 5 to 8cm look reasonable. That said, if the system ends up being drier than expected, some locations may struggle to reach the 5cm mark.

Further south into Sarnia, London, and the Niagara Region, amounts should generally stay below 5cm. Windsor and Leamington may see little more than a trace, if any snow at all.

In the Ottawa Valley, northern sections closer to the Quebec border, including Pembroke, Ottawa, and Cornwall, are expected to see around 2 to 5cm. Areas further south, such as Bancroft, Smiths Falls, and Brockville, could pick up closer to 5 to 8cm.

Some recent model runs have hinted at heavier snow pushing a bit further north in Eastern Ontario, so the potential for localized overperformance cannot be ruled out.

Once snow winds down Monday evening, conditions will briefly improve before the next system approaches. Current guidance suggests a messy and complex setup developing Tuesday afternoon and lasting into Wednesday.

Unlike the clipper, this system will involve a stronger battle between warm and cold air. This raises the risk for a band of freezing rain to set up somewhere across Southern Ontario, at least for a few hours.

At this point, it looks like a lower-impact freezing rain scenario where areas transition from freezing rain to plain rain as warmer air moves northward. However, higher resolution models are only just coming into range, and it is possible that the cold air proves more stubborn than currently expected.

As the system exits overnight into Wednesday, a broader area of heavier snow could develop across Northeastern, Central, and Eastern Ontario. Where this snow band ultimately sets up remains uncertain, but snowfall amounts in the 5 to 15cm range are possible.

We will have a much clearer picture of that system once Monday’s clipper moves through and we can assess how the atmosphere responds.

Beyond that, yet another round of unsettled weather is possible toward the end of the week and into the weekend. While heavy rain currently looks like the main concern, colder air arriving sooner could flip the script toward heavy snow. This remains highly preliminary, but it reinforces the message that winter is not easing up anytime soon.

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