Damaging Wind Storm Sweeps Into Ontario With Gusts Over 90 km/h and Blizzard Conditions on Monday
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The final week of January is shaping up to start with turbulent weather across Southern Ontario, as a damaging windstorm is set to impact the region on Monday.
Wind gusts are forecasted to reach 80 to 90 km/h across much of Southern Ontario during the day on Monday, with some localized pockets potentially seeing gusts exceeding 100 km/h.
Power outages are a significant concern for the hardest-hit regions, along with other types of wind-related damage, such as fallen tree branches and unsecured objects being blown around. In addition, the strong winds may create another hazard along the Great Lakes shoreline, where ice could be pushed ashore, causing damage to property along the lakes.
Adding to the danger, a sharp cold front is expected to sweep through Ontario over the next 24 hours, bringing a blast of wintry weather, including an intense frontal snow squall. Combined with the strong winds, some areas could experience blizzard-like conditions starting late Monday afternoon and lasting into the evening.
While this event isn’t expected to bring significant snowfall totals to Southern Ontario, accumulations could range from 5 to 15 cm, depending on the location.
However, areas east of Lake Superior in Northern Ontario may see higher amounts, with localized totals reaching 20 to 30 cm, while a broader area of Northeastern Ontario is expected to receive 10 to 20 cm.
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The windstorm is expected to begin early Monday morning across Southern Ontario, with wind speeds gradually increasing through mid-morning.
Southwestern Ontario, particularly areas along the Lake Huron shoreline, will experience the strongest winds first, around sunrise. These conditions will then spread east and north by early afternoon.
The strongest winds are anticipated during the early to mid-afternoon hours, with widespread gusts ranging from 70 to 90 km/h across the region.
Areas such as the Dundalk Highlands, Niagara region, Northern Lake Erie shoreline, and Prince Edward County could see slightly higher wind gusts due to their exposure to the lakes and elevated terrain. Gusts in these areas may exceed 100 km/h, possibly reaching 105 to 110 km/h near Collingwood along the Georgian Bay shoreline.
Other locations, including Goderich, Kincardine, Owen Sound, Wiarton, Tobermory, Guelph, Kitchener, Hamilton, Brantford, Britt, Parry Sound, Belleville, Kingston, and Brockville, could experience wind gusts between 90 and 100 km/h. This range represents the greatest potential for wind damage, including localized power outages.
The remainder of Southern Ontario—excluding Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley—can expect gusts between 80 and 90 km/h, with occasional stronger gusts. Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley are likely to see slightly weaker winds, with maximum gusts of 70 to 80 km/h.
For those with properties along the Great Lakes, particularly Lake Erie, the risk of ‘ice shoves’—where winds push broken ice onto shore—is a concern. This phenomenon can cause significant damage and flooding along the shoreline. Residents in affected areas should prepare for this potential over the next 24 hours.
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Wind speeds are expected to diminish somewhat later in the afternoon and into Monday evening, though they will remain strong, ranging from 60 to 90 km/h. This coincides with the arrival of a pocket of moderate to heavy snow in Central Ontario during the late afternoon.
The snowfall is expected to begin affecting the Parry Sound and Muskoka regions between 2:00 and 4:00 PM, leading to blowing snow and possible blizzard conditions lasting several hours into the evening.
Travel during this time will likely be hazardous, with significantly reduced visibility and potentially closed roads. While snowfall rates won’t be overwhelming, at a few centimetres per hour, the strong winds will make conditions dangerous.
Travel should be avoided unless absolutely necessary. Fortunately, conditions are expected to improve within a few hours.
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By dinnertime, widespread snowfall is likely across most of Central Ontario, portions of Eastern Ontario, and areas east of the Lake Huron shoreline.
The worst conditions are expected early in the event, as the snow begins and winds are strongest, with gradual improvement into the later evening hours.
The greatest risk of blizzard conditions will be across Grey-Bruce, the Georgian Bay shoreline, Muskoka, and Parry Sound, where the heaviest snow and strongest winds are forecasted to overlap.
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An intense, narrow band of snow is also expected to develop along the cold front as it moves through Southern Ontario in the evening.
This frontal snow squall could bring a sudden burst of heavy snow almost everywhere in Southern Ontario, lasting less than an hour.
The squall is expected to reach Central and Eastern Ontario by mid to late evening, while the Greater Toronto Area and Niagara region may not experience it until closer to midnight.
This squall is not expected to produce significant snowfall totals, as it will pass through quickly. However, it could bring 2 to 5 cm of snow within 15 to 30 minutes, along with brief but intense blowing snow.
Although conditions may feel like a blizzard during this time, they likely won’t meet the official criteria, which require blizzard conditions to last at least four hours. That criteria is more likely to be met around the Lake Huron and Georgian Bay shoreline as the snow starts earlier in the day.
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By the end of Monday, the highest snowfall totals are expected in the higher elevations of Central Ontario, including Huntsville, Sundridge, Algonquin Park, and North Bay, where accumulations of 10 to 20 cm are likely, though closer to the lower end of that range.
For the rest of Central Ontario and areas east of Lake Huron, including Hanover, Orangeville, and Collingwood, this event is expected to bring 5 to 10 cm of fresh snowfall.
Eastern Ontario and the Lake Huron shoreline should see 2 to 5 cm, primarily from the passing snow squall.
The Golden Horseshoe and Deep Southwestern Ontario are likely to receive less than 2 cm of snow.
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In Northern Ontario, snow will begin late Sunday night and continue through much of Monday.
The heaviest accumulations will occur east of Lake Superior, where lake enhancement and embedded snow squalls could push totals to 20 to 30 cm in areas like Wawa and Sault Ste. Marie.
Blizzard conditions are possible during the morning and afternoon in these regions, with wind gusts reaching 70 to 90 km/h near the shoreline.
The rest of Northeastern Ontario, stretching from North Bay to Cochrane along the Quebec border, is expected to receive 10 to 20 cm of snow by the end of Monday.
Sudbury, which may find itself in a dry pocket, is forecasted to see 5 to 10 cm, closer to the lower end of that range, while Elliot Lake should receive less than 5 cm.
