‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Localized School Bus Cancellations Likely on Thursday in Parts of Southern Ontario

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Snow squalls are expected to redevelop this evening across the Bruce Peninsula and then push east of Georgian Bay overnight. These squalls have the potential to be quite intense, bringing periods of near-zero visibility and rapid snowfall accumulation. The greatest impacts are expected across the Parry Sound and Muskoka regions, where totals could approach 25 to 50 cm by the end of Thursday.

With treacherous road conditions likely already in place by the morning commute and snow squall activity expected to persist into the afternoon, it is almost certain that the hardest hit regions will see another day of school bus cancellations on Thursday.

Our highest confidence for a snow day is focused on the Parry Sound region within the Near North District School Board and North Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board. These two areas are expected to be directly under the most persistent snow squall activity overnight, leaving little doubt that conditions will be unsafe for buses to operate. As a result, we have assigned both regions a 90 percent chance of a snow day.

We also have strong confidence that East Parry Sound, under the Near North District School Board and South Muskoka within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, will see bus cancellations on Thursday. That said, there is slightly more uncertainty with these zones. In East Parry Sound, it remains unclear how far inland the strongest squalls will reach. For South Muskoka, guidance suggests the most intense activity may remain just to the north during the morning before sagging southward later in the day.

While a strongly worded Environment Canada snow squall warning is in effect and would typically be enough to justify cancellations based on expected afternoon conditions, recent decisions show that TLDSB may be willing to roll the dice if a region is not directly under a squall during the morning bus run. Because of this, we have assigned South Muskoka a slightly lower, but still strong, 75 percent chance.

Farther north and east, additional regions that could see a snow day due to Georgian Bay activity include North Bay under the Near North District School Board and Haliburton within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board. These areas may see occasional bursts of snow squall activity on Thursday, but it remains uncertain whether impacts will be persistent enough to reach cancellation thresholds. Because of that uncertainty, we have gone with a 50 percent chance, as it could genuinely go either way.

Across the remainder of Central and Eastern Ontario, the chance of cancellations drops off quickly. Snowfall is expected to be limited in most of these areas on Thursday, and any lingering impacts would mainly be tied to cleanup from the Alberta Clipper rather than active weather. We have maintained a low chance for some rural school boards simply to account for the outside possibility that backroads are still not fully cleared by morning, but this scenario remains very questionable.

UPDATE (8 PM): Following the issuance of a snow squall watch by Environment Canada after this forecast was published, we have made a few adjustments to the probabilities for the Bluewater District School Board and the Avon Maitland District School Board.

For Bluewater, the Bruce Peninsula has been increased to a 90 percent chance. Southampton, Owen Sound and Meaford have been bumped up into the 75 percent category, while Kincardine and Hanover have been raised to a 50 percent chance.

For Avon Maitland, northern Huron and northern Perth counties have also been moved into the 50 percent zone.

All other regions and probabilities in the forecast remain unchanged.

In Southwestern Ontario, the main area of concern continues to be the Bruce Peninsula under the Bluewater District School Board. Ongoing snow squall activity here supports a strong 75 percent chance of bus cancellations, with conditions expected to remain hazardous through much of the day.

Just south of that core snowbelt zone, probabilities begin to taper off. We have assigned a 50 percent chance to Southampton, Owen Sound and Meaford within the Bluewater District School Board, where squalls may clip the area at times.

A 25 percent chance has been assigned to Kincardine and Hanover under Bluewater, along with all regions of the Avon Maitland District School Board. In these areas, snowfall amounts are expected to be lighter, but gusty winds combined with patchy lake effect snow could still lead to localized travel concerns.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, school bus cancellations are not expected on Thursday. Conditions should be manageable in most regions, particularly outside of the snowbelt. We have kept a very low chance for a few rural boards in Southwestern Ontario to account for blowing snow and some light snow moving through during the morning, but confidence in cancellations outside the main snow squall zones remains quite low.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: School Bus Cancellations Are Likely in Parts of Southern Ontario on Wednesday With Continued Squalls Followed by an Alberta Clipper

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A shift in wind direction has caused snow squalls off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay to lift northward, pushing into the Bruce Peninsula and expanding into the Parry Sound and Muskoka regions.

This lake effect snow is expected to persist overnight and into Wednesday morning, with locally significant snowfall totals possible. In the most intense and persistent bands, some communities could see an additional 30 to 50 cm of snow by the time this activity winds down.

With snowfall of this magnitude falling over a relatively short period of time, travel conditions will deteriorate rapidly. Whiteout conditions, drifting snow and snow-covered rural routes will almost certainly keep school buses off the roads in the hardest hit areas on Wednesday.

At the same time, attention will also be on a separate system moving in from the west. An Alberta Clipper is expected to slide through Southern Ontario beginning Wednesday morning and continue throughout much of the day. While this system is not expected to produce widespread heavy snowfall, most areas should still pick up several centimetres.

In some locations, lake enhancement could boost totals closer to 10 to 15 cm. With snow falling during the school day rather than overnight, this raises the possibility of scattered bus cancellations outside of the core snow squall zones.

The highest confidence for a snow day remains in the areas directly impacted by the most intense lake effect activity. We have assigned a 90 percent chance to all regions of the Trillium Lakelands District School Board within Muskoka, the Parry Sound region under the Near North District School Board, and the Bruce Peninsula within the Bluewater District School Board.

In these areas, snow squalls are expected to remain relentless through Wednesday morning, making travel extremely hazardous. Impacts will be very localized, and once you move outside of these zones, probabilities drop quickly.

Immediately surrounding the core squall region, we have a 50 percent chance for East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board. Conditions here will be highly dependent on how far north and east the strongest squalls extend overnight.

We have also assigned a 25 percent chance to the remainder of the Simcoe County District School Board, the rest of the Trillium Lakelands District School Board and North Bay under the Near North District School Board.

In these areas, cancellations are questionable but cannot be ruled out if lake effect snow pushes farther inland than expected.

For impacts tied to the Alberta Clipper, our highest confidence is focused on Southwestern Ontario. Snow will arrive earlier in the day here, increasing the likelihood of cancellations when snowfall is actively occurring rather than forecasted for later when the decision is made in the morning.

Confidence is also higher across parts of Eastern Ontario along the Lake Ontario shoreline, where snowfall warnings are already in effect, and these school boards tend to be more proactive when poor afternoon conditions are expected.

A strong likelihood zone, with a 75 percent chance of a snow day, includes the remainder of the Bluewater District School Board outside the Bruce Peninsula, all regions covered by the Avon Maitland District School Board, Northumberland County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Belleville, Prince Edward County, South Lennox and Addington, South Frontenac and Kingston within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. In these regions, we expect many boards to opt for cancellations as conditions deteriorate through the day.

Across Deep Southwestern Ontario, we have assigned a 50 percent chance to all regions of the Lambton Kent District School Board and the Greater Essex County District School Board. Snow is expected to be falling during the decision-making window on Wednesday morning, and even without active warnings, snowfall combined with gusty winds could be enough to prompt cancellations.

This 50 percent zone also extends into Middlesex and Oxford counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, as well as Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board, where snowfall warnings are in effect and could justify proactive cancellations even if snow begins later in the morning.

In Eastern Ontario, we have also assigned a 50 percent chance to Central Hastings, Central Lennox and Addington, and North and Central Frontenac within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, along with Clarington under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board. Here, outcomes will depend heavily on snowfall rates and timing, with some areas potentially seeing enough accumulation during the day to warrant cancellations.

Once you move into more urban school boards across Southwestern Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe, confidence drops further. We have given a 25 percent chance to London and Elgin County under the Thames Valley District School Board, the Grand Erie District School Board, the Waterloo Region District School Board, Guelph within the Upper Grand District School Board, Georgina under the York Region District School Board and Durham Region.

While some of these areas are included in snowfall warnings, the forecasted amounts may fall just short of the higher thresholds typically required for cancellations. Elgin County, while not urban, is not currently under a snowfall warning, which is why it is lumped into the 25% chance.

Farther east, a 25 percent chance has also been assigned to Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, North Frontenac within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, and the Madawaska region under the Renfrew County District School Board. These areas are not currently under active warnings, and snow is expected to arrive later in the morning. However, if school boards opt for system-wide cancellations rather than region-specific decisions, a few surprises remain possible.

For the more urban school boards across the Greater Toronto Area, the chance of a snow day remains low to very low. Snowfall amounts are not expected to reach the high threshold these regions typically require for cancellations.

In the Ottawa Valley, snowfall is expected to be limited and delayed until the middle of the afternoon. Because of this timing and lower expected totals, school bus cancellations are not anticipated in this region on Wednesday.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Ongoing Snow Squall Activity in Southern Ontario Likely to Cancel School Buses on Tuesday in Some Areas

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As expected, snow squall activity has been hammering the traditional snowbelt regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay throughout the day on Monday. This has already led to widespread school bus cancellations and even a handful of school closures in the hardest hit areas. With this lake effect activity expected to persist into Tuesday, it is becoming increasingly clear that some students will be waking up to their second snow day of the week.

Overnight, attention will turn to a particularly intense snow squall that is forecast to stretch across the Bruce Peninsula and then push southeast of Georgian Bay. This includes parts of Simcoe County, southern Muskoka, the Kawartha Lakes region and potentially as far east as Peterborough. At the same time, additional lake effect activity off Lake Huron is expected to continue impacting Huron and Perth counties, keeping snowfall rates elevated through the night and into Tuesday morning.

In addition to the snow, very cold Arctic air will remain firmly in place. Wind chills overnight into Tuesday morning are expected to drop sharply, with parts of Northern and Central Ontario potentially seeing wind chills as low as minus 35 to minus 40. In a few of the more northern and rural school boards, this may be cold enough to raise concerns about cold-related cancellations on top of the ongoing snow squall impacts.

The strongest confidence for a snow day on Tuesday lies across all regions covered by the Bluewater District School Board, the Simcoe West and Simcoe North weather zones under the Simcoe County District School Board, and the northern Kawartha Lakes region within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board.

These areas sit directly within the core of the most persistent snow squall activity and are very likely to see dangerous travel conditions during the morning bus run. As a result, we have assigned these regions a 90 percent chance of a snow day, with school closures even being a possibility in some communities.

A second tier of regions carries a strong likelihood, with a 75 percent chance of bus cancellations. This includes northern portions of Huron and Perth counties under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Dufferin County within the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe Central weather zone, South Kawartha Lakes and South Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and the Parry Sound region within the Near North District School Board. In these areas, we are leaning toward cancellations, but confidence is slightly lower than in the core snowbelt due to some uncertainty in squall placement and intensity.

In the toss-up category, where outcomes could genuinely go either way, we have included southern Huron and southern Perth counties under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Wellington County for the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe South weather zone, Georgina within the York Region District School Board, the northern portion of the Durham District School Board, North Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, East Parry Sound within the Near North District School Board, Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Prince Edward County within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. These areas are either positioned just outside the most intense squall bands or are covered by school boards that typically maintain a higher threshold for cancellations.

A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to a number of additional regions. This includes the Waterloo Region District School Board, Guelph within the Upper Grand District School Board, the southern York Region District School Board weather zone, Haliburton under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Northumberland County within the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Belleville, South Lennox and Addington, and Kingston under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services.

We have also included a slight chance for North Bay within the Near North District School Board and areas covered by the Rainbow District School Board. In these northern regions, the concern shifts more toward extreme cold, though confidence is lower on whether temperatures will reach the threshold required for cold-related cancellations.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the risk of a snow day on Tuesday drops to low or very low. This includes most urban school boards across the Golden Horseshoe, the London area, Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley. These regions are not expected to see significant impacts from the lake effect snow, and travel conditions should remain manageable enough for buses to operate as normal.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Monday’s Blizzard Risk Expected to Result in Widespread School Bus Cancellations in Southern Ontario

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Intense snow squall activity, combined with bitterly cold wind chills and strong, gusty winds, is expected to create dangerous blizzard conditions across snowbelt regions near Lake Huron, Georgian Bay, Lake Ontario and Lake Erie on Monday.

Environment Canada has issued a range of winter weather alerts in response to this setup, including a strongly worded orange-level blizzard warning for areas east of Lake Huron as well as Prince Edward County. In these regions, wind gusts of 70 to 90 km/h combined with snowfall totals of 20 to 40 cm are expected to lead to near-zero visibility and extremely hazardous travel conditions.

With warnings of this severity in place, it is difficult to see how school buses could operate safely in the hardest hit areas. Blizzard conditions of this nature pose a significant safety risk for anyone on the roads, particularly during the afternoon hours when conditions are expected to be at their worst.

Because of this, we have near certainty of a snow day in several regions. A 90 percent chance of school bus cancellations has been assigned to all areas covered by the Bluewater District School Board and the Avon Maitland District School Board, along with Wellington County under the Upper Grand District School Board and Prince Edward County within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. These regions sit directly within the blizzard warning area, where travel is expected to be extremely dangerous.

While not under the blizzard warning itself, we have also assigned a 90 percent chance to the Parry Sound region within the Near North District School Board, as well as Belleville and South Lennox and Addington under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. These areas remain under snow squall warnings, which on their own are typically more than enough to prompt cancellations. Given the expected intensity and duration of the squalls, cancellations here appear highly likely.

A strong likelihood zone, with a 75 percent chance of a snow day, includes Kingston under Tri-Board, Northumberland County within the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, the southern Niagara Region under the District School Board of Niagara, Dufferin County within the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe West weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board, North Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, East Parry Sound within the Near North District School Board, and all areas covered by the Rainbow District School Board. We are leaning toward cancellations in most of these regions, although some fall within boards that tend to be stricter with snow day decisions or sit just outside the most intense squall bands.

The probability drops off fairly quickly once you move outside the core snow squall risk zone, as lake effect impacts will be highly localized. In the toss-up category, where there is a 50 percent chance of a snow day, we have included the northern Niagara Region under the District School Board of Niagara, the Grand Erie District School Board, the Waterloo Region District School Board, Guelph within the Upper Grand District School Board, Clarington under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, the Simcoe Central and Simcoe North weather zones, South Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and North Bay within the Near North District School Board.

A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to Middlesex and Oxford counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, northern Peel Region, the Simcoe South weather zone, Haliburton and North Kawartha Lakes within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Central Hastings, Central Lennox and Addington, and South Frontenac under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. These regions are not currently under active warnings but remain close enough to the snow squall zones that a surprise cancellation cannot be ruled out if Environment Canada expands alert areas by Monday morning.

For the remainder of Southern Ontario, including Deep Southwestern Ontario, much of the Greater Toronto Area and the Ottawa Valley, the chance of a snow day remains low to very low. These regions are not expected to see significant impacts from lake effect snow, and travel conditions should remain manageable enough for school buses to operate as normal.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Snowstorm Aftermath May Cancel School Buses for a Second Day on Friday in Parts of Southern Ontario

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For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/16/bus-cancellations

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Many school buses were cancelled and even some schools were closed across Southern Ontario on Thursday as a high-impact snowstorm delivered widespread snowfall totals of 20 to 40 cm in some areas.

While the storm has begun to wind down heading into the evening, cleanup efforts are only just getting underway. With this amount of snow on the ground, it often takes more than a single night to fully dig out, especially on rural roads and backroads where plowing and treatment can take longer.

Because of this, we are expecting some lingering impacts for the Friday morning commute. The greatest concern lies across Eastern Ontario, where snowfall is only tapering off this evening. These areas will have significantly less time overnight to clear roads ahead of the morning bus run, increasing the likelihood of localized travel issues.

As a result, there is a chance that some school boards may opt for a second straight day of school bus cancellations on Friday. That said, this will be highly dependent on local road conditions and how effective overnight cleanup efforts are in each individual region.

Our highest confidence for additional cancellations is focused on the more rural zones within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. This includes Central Hastings, North and Central Lennox and Addington, and North and Central Frontenac.

These areas rely heavily on rural bus routes that can remain snow-covered for longer periods following major storms. Because of this, we have assigned these regions a 75 percent chance of school bus cancellations on Friday.

Surrounding school boards with a heavy dependence on rural transportation are placed in the 50 percent category, where conditions could genuinely go either way. This includes areas covered by the Upper Canada District School Board, the Renfrew County District School Board, including the Renfrew and Madawaska regions, the remaining zones within Tri-Board, and Peterborough and Northumberland counties under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board. In these regions, the final decision will likely come down to how quickly secondary roads can be cleared overnight.

For the Ottawa region, we have assigned a 25 percent chance. While Ottawa is more urban in nature and primary roads are expected to be in good shape by morning, the sheer volume of snow that fell may still present challenges on residential streets and bus routes. Whether that leads to cancellations remains uncertain.

A 25 percent chance has also been assigned to the Kawartha Lakes and Haliburton regions within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Clarington under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and the northern portion of the Durham District School Board. These areas either lean more rural or did not see the most extreme snowfall totals from this storm. At this time, we are leaning toward buses running, but a few localized cancellations cannot be ruled out.

As you move farther west and north, confidence increases that roads will be in better shape by Friday morning. Snow tapered off earlier in the day in these areas, giving crews more time to clear routes. This includes a large portion of Southwestern Ontario as well as communities surrounding the Golden Horseshoe.

For these regions, we have gone with a widespread low to very low chance of school bus cancellations. No specific school board stands out as being particularly vulnerable, as outcomes will depend almost entirely on local road conditions. Boards covering more rural territory have been assigned closer to a 10 percent chance, while the more urban school boards across the Greater Toronto Area sit closer to 5 percent.

Across northern portions of Central Ontario, including areas covered by the Near North District School Board, the Rainbow District School Board and the Algoma District School Board, we have assigned a low 10 percent chance. Temperatures are expected to be very cold, but not cold enough to typically prompt cancellations on their own. Still, conditions are close enough to that threshold that a few isolated decisions cannot be completely ruled out.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Major Snowstorm Almost Certain to Cancel School Buses in Much of Southern Ontario on Thursday

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For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/15/bus-cancellations

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A last-minute shift in forecast models has placed much of Southern Ontario in the crosshairs of a prolonged snowstorm expected to begin Wednesday evening and continue through much of Thursday. This system has the potential to be impactful, with snowfall totals exceeding 20 cm in some areas by the time it winds down late Thursday.

Environment Canada has responded by issuing widespread snowfall warnings stretching from parts of Eastern and Central Ontario through the Golden Horseshoe. At the same time, snow squall warnings have been issued for areas south of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, adding another layer of complexity to this already active setup.

In addition to the snow, very cold Arctic air is expected to surge into Southern Ontario overnight into Thursday morning. Wind chills could approach minus 30 degrees in some areas, especially during the early morning hours.

This combination of heavy snow, blowing snow and dangerous cold is almost certain to disrupt travel and will very likely lead to widespread school bus cancellations. In some regions, school closures may also need to be considered.

The highest confidence for a snow day is found across the more rural school boards that are typically the most sensitive to adverse winter weather. With active snowfall warnings in place and significant accumulation expected, thresholds will almost certainly be met.

We have assigned a 90 percent chance to all areas covered by Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, all of Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, the South Kawartha Lakes region under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board.

A much broader area falls into the strong likelihood category, with a 75 percent chance of a snow day. This includes the Upper Canada District School Board and the Renfrew County District School Board, Haliburton County and North Kawartha Lakes under TLDSB, North Durham within the Durham District School Board, York Region District School Board, the Simcoe Central, Simcoe South and Simcoe West zones under the Simcoe County District School Board, northern Peel Region, northern Halton, Hamilton-Wentworth, Niagara Region, Guelph within the Upper Grand District School Board, Waterloo Region, Oxford County and Middlesex County under the Thames Valley District School Board, Lambton County within the Lambton Kent District School Board, Perth County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, and the Hanover, Meaford, Owen Sound and Bruce Peninsula areas within the Bluewater District School Board.

While we expect most of these school boards to cancel buses, there remains a small chance that a few could attempt to operate if snowfall rates are lighter than expected early Thursday morning. That said, confidence remains high that cancellations will be widespread within this zone.

For more urban school boards, confidence becomes less certain. Areas including Ottawa under the Ottawa Student Transportation Authority, southern Durham Region within the Durham District School Board, Toronto District School Board, southern Peel Region, southern Halton, and the Grand Erie District School Board have been assigned a 50 percent chance. The snowfall amounts currently mentioned in Environment Canada alerts sit right on the threshold that typically prompts cancellations for these boards. Some forecast guidance suggests totals could exceed what is currently advertised, and if that materializes, cancellations would become more likely in these areas.

Other regions sitting firmly in the toss-up category include Simcoe North, South Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Southampton and Kincardine within the Bluewater District School Board, Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, London and Elgin County for the Thames Valley District School Board, and Chatham-Kent and Sarnia within the Lambton Kent District School Board. These areas sit closer to the edge of the heaviest snowfall, and it remains questionable whether enough accumulation will occur to prompt cancellations.

A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to Essex County within the Greater Essex County District School Board. At this time, no weather alerts are in place for this region, but if snowfall amounts trend higher than expected overnight, a limited number of cancellations could occur.

We have also assigned a 25 percent chance to North Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, along with Parry Sound and East Parry Sound within the Near North District School Board. These regions are expected to remain largely outside the core of the storm, but if the system tracks farther north than currently forecast, cancellations could become more likely, particularly given Near North’s tendency to respond proactively to winter weather.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Flash Freeze Risk Brings Slight Chance of School Bus Cancellations in Parts of Southern Ontario on Wednesday

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Rapidly plunging temperatures followed by the development of snow squall activity are expected across Southern Ontario throughout the day on Wednesday, creating a potentially tricky setup when it comes to school transportation.

As a strong cold front sweeps across the region beginning Wednesday morning, temperatures are expected to fall sharply in a short period of time. In some areas, readings could drop from a few degrees above freezing to well below minus 10 degrees within just a few hours. This raises the risk of a flash freeze, particularly on untreated roads, sidewalks and rural routes.

Because of this flash freeze potential, there is a possibility that some school boards may choose to cancel buses, especially in rural areas that are more sensitive to icy conditions. These boards rely heavily on extensive backroad routes, where surfaces can quickly become dangerous once temperatures drop below freezing.

One of the complicating factors with this setup is timing. In many parts of Southern Ontario, temperatures are not expected to begin falling sharply until the late morning or early afternoon. That means any cancellations would need to be made proactively, based on expected conditions later in the day, rather than what is occurring at the time of the morning bus run. Historically, this type of proactive decision-making can vary significantly from one school board to another.

If Environment Canada issues a flash freeze warning by early Wednesday morning, the probability of cancellations would increase fairly rapidly. Flash freeze warnings tend to carry more weight with school boards, as they highlight a rapid deterioration in road conditions that can catch drivers off guard.

At this time, the highest chance for bus cancellations includes all regions covered by the Bluewater District School Board and the Near North District School Board. We have assigned these areas a slight chance, around 25 percent. These boards are expected to be among the first to experience the temperature drop as the cold front pushes in from the northwest.

Current indications suggest the front could arrive as early as 4 to 6 AM in these areas, which increases the likelihood that icy conditions could already be developing during the morning commute. In addition, Environment Canada snow squall watches mentioning squalls developing later in the day may give the Bluewater District School Board additional reason to consider cancellations.

Across the rest of Southwestern, Central and Eastern Ontario, we have gone with a widespread low to very low chance of school bus cancellations, generally in the 5 to 10 percent range. The slightly higher end of that range is focused on regions under snow squall watches or rural school boards that historically respond more cautiously to flash freeze situations.

At this point, we do not believe the snow squall watches alone will be enough to prompt cancellations on Wednesday, as the bulk of the squall activity is expected to begin after the school day has ended. However, this setup does raise concerns heading into Thursday, when snow squalls are expected to ramp up late Wednesday and continue into the following day.

For the remainder of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations remains under 5 percent. Weather conditions in these areas are not expected to reach the threshold that typically leads to cancellations, and most school boards should be able to operate normally on Wednesday.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Tuesday, January 13, 2026

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Aside from some light flurries east of Georgian Bay extending into parts of Eastern Ontario, which are expected to taper off through the evening, no impactful winter weather is anticipated overnight and during the school day on Tuesday.

Because of this, we are not expecting any school bus cancellations, and all regions across Southern Ontario have been assigned less than a 5 percent chance.

There remains a very small chance of isolated cancellations in parts of Central and Eastern Ontario, particularly within rural school boards, if backroads become icy as temperatures hover near the freezing mark.

However, this would come down to highly localized road conditions rather than active weather. Since this type of scenario is not directly driven by forecasted weather impacts, it is not factored into our snow day forecast.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Monday, January 12, 2026

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No major winter weather is expected across Southern Ontario on Monday, which means school bus cancellations are very unlikely in most areas.

A weak system, being enhanced by Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, may bring a few centimetres of snowfall during the morning and early afternoon. This could briefly reduce visibility in some localized areas, particularly closer to the lakes.

That said, snowfall amounts are not expected to reach the threshold that typically prompts cancellations. If any decisions are made, they would most likely be in parts of Grey-Bruce, the Parry Sound area or Muskoka. For that reason, we have assigned these regions a low to very low chance, but the overall expectation is that buses will run as normal.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of a snow day remains under 5 percent on Monday.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Friday, January 9, 2026

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Milder weather is expected across Southern Ontario throughout Friday, with temperatures remaining well above the freezing mark.

Any precipitation that develops on Friday will fall as plain rain and is not expected to create any travel issues or hazardous road conditions.

Because of this, all of Southern Ontario carries less than a 5 percent chance of a snow day on Friday.

It looks like homework is in the forecast for tonight!

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow/Fog Day’ Forecast for Thursday, January 8, 2026

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While no major winter weather conditions are expected to impact travel across Southern Ontario on Thursday morning, weather conditions may still be less than ideal in some areas. Patchy fog is expected to develop overnight and could linger into the early morning hours, particularly in rural regions.

If fog becomes dense enough, it could significantly reduce visibility on roadways. This raises the possibility of a few scattered school bus cancellations, mainly in parts of Southwestern, Central and Eastern Ontario. These regions tend to be more sensitive to fog-related impacts, especially where rural routes, open fields and low-lying areas allow visibility to drop quickly.

That said, confidence remains fairly low when it comes to pinpointing exactly where cancellations may occur. Fog events can be highly localized, and small shifts in wind or temperature overnight can make the difference between clear conditions and dense fog by morning. Because of that uncertainty, this is not a high-confidence forecast for any one region.

To account for this, we have assigned a widespread 25 percent chance for what could be considered a “fog day” on Thursday in areas where school boards have historically shown a willingness to cancel when visibility becomes an issue. This includes Lambton and Chatham-Kent under the Lambton Kent District School Board, Middlesex, Elgin and Oxford counties within the Thames Valley District School Board, and all regions covered by the Avon Maitland District School Board.

This 25 percent zone also includes Wellington and Dufferin counties under the Upper Grand District School Board, most of the Bluewater District School Board, excluding in-city routes in Owen Sound, Parry Sound and East Parry Sound within the Near North District School Board, and North and Central Hastings, along with North and Central Lennox and Addington under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. While most of these regions will likely see buses running as normal, a few localized cancellations are possible depending on where fog is most persistent.

Outside of these areas, the rest of Southern Ontario carries a low to very low chance of school bus cancellations. A surprise decision cannot be completely ruled out, but confidence is low that fog will become dense enough or widespread enough to justify cancellations in these regions.

Urban school boards across the Golden Horseshoe and the Ottawa area are especially unlikely to see any disruptions. Fog rarely leads to cancellations in highly urbanized regions, where road networks are better lit, more heavily travelled and less dependent on long rural bus routes.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Some Parts of Southern Ontario May See a Third Day of Bus Cancellations on Wednesday

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For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/7/bus-cancellations

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A messy system has been delivering a whiplash of winter weather across Southern Ontario throughout the day on Tuesday. Precipitation has ranged from freezing rain to ice pellets, with conditions expected to transition over to heavier snow in some areas through the evening.

While the core of this system is forecast to wind down later this evening and into the early overnight hours, its impacts are expected to linger into Wednesday morning. For regions that have dealt with prolonged periods of freezing rain, there is little indication of a meaningful warmup overnight. This means any ice that has formed on untreated surfaces is unlikely to melt, leaving roads, sidewalks and driveways slippery heading into the morning commute.

Because of this, we have fairly high confidence that some school bus cancellations will occur on Wednesday, particularly in rural areas with extensive backroad networks. These routes can remain icy well after precipitation ends, especially when temperatures stay below freezing. In addition to icing concerns, thick fog is expected to develop in parts of Southwestern Ontario overnight, which could further reduce visibility and contribute to cancellations or delays.

The highest chance for a snow or ice day includes Kingston, South Frontenac, South and Central Lennox and Addington, and Belleville under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, along with Peterborough and Northumberland counties within the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board.

These regions tend to be among the most sensitive to poor backroad conditions due to their large rural coverage. They are also expected to see freezing rain linger the longest, leaving less time for road crews to fully clear conditions before the morning bus run. As a result, we have assigned these areas a 75 percent chance of bus cancellations.

Much of the remaining rural portion of Central Ontario into Southwestern Ontario falls into the toss-up category. We expect several school boards in this zone to keep buses off the roads, but decisions will likely come down to highly localized road conditions and how much additional icing occurs overnight.

This includes the remainder of Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, the Madawaska region within the Renfrew County District School Board, most of the Trillium Lakelands District School Board excluding North Muskoka, and the Simcoe North weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board.

Rural school boards across Southwestern Ontario may also be impacted by the development of thick fog overnight, combined with lingering icy conditions in higher elevation areas that saw freezing rain earlier Tuesday.

Because of this, we have also assigned a 50 percent chance to several boards in this region, although confidence here is slightly lower. Outcomes will depend on how dense and widespread the fog becomes by morning.

This group includes Dufferin and Wellington counties within the Upper Grand District School Board, Grey County under the Bluewater District School Board, Perth County for the Avon Maitland District School Board, and Middlesex and Oxford counties within the Thames Valley District School Board.

A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to the rural portions of the Ottawa Valley, including areas covered by the Upper Canada District School Board and the Renfrew County District School Board. Icing here has been more limited, making cancellations questionable, but a few isolated decisions cannot be ruled out if conditions deteriorate overnight.

We have also assigned a 25 percent chance to the remainder of Simcoe County, along with Georgina under the York Region District School Board. These areas are more urban and typically maintain a higher threshold for cancellations, so decisions will depend on whether road conditions are poor enough early Wednesday morning to justify keeping buses off the roads.

In Southwestern Ontario, a 25 percent chance has been given to the Waterloo Region District School Board, Guelph within the Upper Grand District School Board, Elgin County under the Thames Valley District School Board, Lambton County for the Lambton Kent District School Board, Huron County within the Avon Maitland District School Board, and southern Bruce County under the Bluewater District School Board.

Patchy fog is possible in these regions, but confidence in its extent is lower, and several of these boards are less likely to cancel based on fog or marginal backroad issues alone.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, including Ottawa and the more urban school boards throughout the Golden Horseshoe and into Deep Southwestern Ontario, the chance of bus cancellations remains low.

That said, if there are any surprises, they may come from parts of Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Sarnia and Chatham. Some forecast guidance suggests fog could extend into these areas overnight, which may prompt a small number of unexpected cancellations if visibility becomes an issue.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow (Ice) Day’ Forecast: Risk of Freezing Rain on Tuesday Could Cancel School Buses in Parts of Southern Ontario

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For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/6/bus-cancellations

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A messy and potentially disruptive system is expected to move through Southern Ontario on Tuesday, bringing with it the risk of several hours of freezing rain developing from the late morning into the afternoon.

Environment Canada has issued widespread freezing rain warnings and special weather statements ahead of this system, highlighting the threat of icing beginning Tuesday morning and continuing through much of the day. With freezing rain notoriously difficult to deal with on untreated surfaces, there is growing concern that some school boards may opt to cancel buses, particularly across rural areas northwest of the Greater Toronto Area and into portions of Central and Eastern Ontario.

What makes this event especially tricky from a school transportation perspective is the timing. The bulk of the freezing rain is not expected to begin until after the morning bus run has already wrapped up. That means any cancellations would need to be made proactively, based largely on Environment Canada alerts and the expectation of deteriorating conditions during the afternoon dismissal. Historically, that level of proactiveness can vary quite a bit from one school board to another.

Because of that uncertainty, we have capped the highest probability at 50 percent, reflecting the fact that this could truly go either way. This 50 percent zone includes Middlesex and Oxford counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, Perth County within the Avon Maitland District School Board, Wellington and Dufferin counties for the Upper Grand District School Board, and the Kincardine, Hanover and Meaford regions under the Bluewater District School Board. These areas are more rural in nature, tend to respond more cautiously to freezing rain threats, and are currently covered by freezing rain warnings. While no single region stands out as a sure thing for cancellations, we do have fairly strong confidence that at least a few boards will declare an “ice day” on Tuesday.

We have also included Peterborough and Northumberland counties under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, along with the southern portions of Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, in the 50 percent category. These areas are currently under special weather statements rather than full warnings, but these school boards have a history of being particularly proactive when freezing rain is involved. In some cases, even a special weather statement can be enough to prompt cancellations.

A broader area has been assigned a 25 percent chance, covering much of Southwestern Ontario and extending into parts of Central and Eastern Ontario. This includes the Greater Essex County District School Board, the Lambton Kent District School Board, London and Elgin County within the Thames Valley District School Board, Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Owen Sound, Southampton and the Bruce Peninsula for the Bluewater District School Board, Waterloo Region, Guelph under the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe County District School Board, North and South Kawartha Lakes under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and the remaining portions of Tri-Board. In these areas, freezing rain is either expected to be patchy or brief, but given the timing and potential for slick roads, a few surprise cancellations cannot be ruled out.

Outside of this zone, including the more urban school boards across the Golden Horseshoe, the Ottawa Valley and Northeastern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations drops to low or very low. In some cases, these regions are simply too far removed from the core freezing rain threat, as is the case for parts of Northeastern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley. In other cases, the boards are highly urbanized and typically require more widespread or severe icing before cancellations are considered.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Heavy Snow May Delay Return From Holiday Break for Some Students in Southern Ontario on Monday

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For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/5/bus-cancellations

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After a two-week break from school across Southern Ontario, it’s understandable that many students and parents are ready for a return to normal with the first official school day of 2026. Unfortunately, the timing is far from ideal. An approaching Alberta Clipper is expected to sweep across the region overnight Sunday into Monday, delivering a burst of heavy snow right during the height of the morning commute.

Environment Canada has already begun issuing widespread snowfall warnings ahead of this system, highlighting the potential for 10 to 15 cm of snow by Monday, along with periods of reduced visibility. With snow falling at a steady rate through the early morning hours, it’s quite possible that winter break may be extended by at least one more day in some parts of Southern Ontario.

The highest confidence for a snow day sits squarely within the Bluewater District School Board. This entire region is expected to see the most snowfall from the Alberta Clipper, on top of already significant snowpack left behind by persistent lake effect snow over the past week. Wind gusts approaching 40 to 50 km/h may also lead to areas of blowing snow, especially in open and rural locations.

With heavy snow beginning overnight and continuing into Monday morning, conditions are likely to deteriorate quickly. Because of this, we are leaning strongly toward school bus cancellations across the entire Bluewater region.

Surrounding school boards fall into a more uncertain category. Northern portions of Huron and Perth counties under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board, and the Simcoe West, Central and South weather zones under the Simcoe County District School Board have all been assigned a 50 percent chance of a snow day.

These boards tend to operate with a higher threshold for cancellations, and while 10 to 15 cm of snow is impactful, it sits close to that decision line. Confidence here will depend heavily on snowfall rates during the morning commute and how quickly conditions deteriorate.

Farther south and east, the heavy snow threat will extend into portions of the Greater Toronto Area, including Peel Region, York Region, the City of Toronto and Durham Region. While these areas are expected to see accumulating snow, the more urban nature of these boards typically results in fewer cancellations unless snowfall becomes extreme. As a result, these regions carry a very low to low chance of school bus cancellations on Monday.

To the north and east of the core snow zone, we have assigned a 25 percent chance for several school boards that cover large rural areas and are more sensitive to winter travel conditions.

This includes Parry Sound and East Parry Sound within the Near North District School Board, Simcoe North under the Simcoe County District School Board, South Muskoka along with North and South Kawartha Lakes under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Peterborough and Northumberland counties within the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Central Hastings, Belleville and Central and South Lennox and Addington under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services.

While we are leaning toward a normal school day for most of these regions, uncertainty remains given the potential impact on untreated rural roads during the morning commute.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley, Deep Southwestern Ontario and areas along the Lake Erie shoreline, the chance of a snow day appears fairly unlikely. In the Ottawa Valley, snow is expected to arrive later in the day, after the morning bus run. For regions closer to Lake Erie, snowfall amounts should remain minimal as the system tracks farther north, limiting impacts.

As always with Alberta Clippers, small shifts in timing or intensity could make a noticeable difference Monday morning. We’ll continue to monitor conditions closely and provide updates as needed, but for now, the return to school may be delayed for some, while others should prepare for a snowy start to the week.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Icy Conditions Could Give Some Students an Early Start to Holiday Break Across Southern Ontario on Friday

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For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2025/12/19/bus-cancellations

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A messy roller coaster of weather is expected across Southern Ontario throughout the day on Friday. It will begin with rain overnight, switching over to heavy snow right around the height of the morning commute. Temperatures will then plunge quickly, leading to the development of icy conditions.

To make things even more complicated, lake effect snow is expected to redevelop east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay later in the day, with locally 10 to 20 cm of snow possible by Friday evening.

With the rain changing to snow, lining up with the morning commute and temperatures dropping through the freezing mark, there is potential for school bus cancellations, especially in rural areas.

The temperature drop is expected to be fairly gradual, which makes it uncertain whether Environment Canada will issue flash freeze warnings. That uncertainty also makes it harder to determine whether conditions will reach the threshold needed for widespread cancellations.

Our highest confidence lies in two regions that tend to be more sensitive to winter weather due to the large number of rural routes they serve. These include the North Hastings zone under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services and the Parry Sound and East Parry Sound regions within the Near North District School Board.

We have assigned these areas a 75 percent chance of bus cancellations. At this point, we are leaning toward cancellations, but not strongly enough to support a higher probability.

Across the broader rural portions of Central, Eastern and Southwestern Ontario, we have assigned a 50 percent chance of school bus cancellations, as conditions could easily go either way. We do expect several cancellations within this widespread zone.

This includes areas covered by the Avon Maitland District School Board, the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, North Bay under the Near North District School Board, Peterborough County within the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and much of Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. Kingston and Prince Edward County under Tri-Board sit lower at 25 percent. This zone also includes the Madawaska region within the Renfrew County District School Board.

Outside of these areas, there is still a slight chance of cancellations, although we are leaning toward buses running in most cases. As such, we have assigned a 25 percent chance to Lambton and Chatham-Kent within the Lambton Kent District School Board, Middlesex and Oxford counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, Dufferin and Wellington counties within the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe West and Simcoe North weather zones, as well as the remaining portions of the Renfrew County District School Board and the Upper Canada District School Board.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, which is largely covered by more urban school boards, cancellations are unlikely. This includes Windsor under the Greater Essex County District School Board, London and Waterloo under the Thames Valley District School Board and Waterloo Region District School Board, the Greater Toronto Area including Toronto, Peel, York, Durham and Halton, the Simcoe Central and Simcoe South zones, and the Ottawa region.

Conditions in these areas are not expected to meet typical cancellation thresholds. Still, we have assigned a small 5 to 10 percent chance to account for the possibility of a few surprise decisions if icy conditions become more impactful than currently expected.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow/Ice Day’ Forecast for Thursday, December 18, 2025

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No major winter weather is expected across Southern Ontario on Thursday, and because of this, widespread school bus cancellations are unlikely.

That said, many areas have seen temperatures climb above freezing during the day on Wednesday, followed by an expected drop back below freezing later tonight and into early Thursday morning. This setup could allow for some localized icy conditions to develop, especially on rural roads.

Because of this possibility, we have assigned a widespread low to very low chance for an “ice day” across parts of Central and Eastern Ontario, as well as higher elevation areas of Southwestern Ontario.

We are not expecting cancellations, but if back roads become icy enough in a few localized spots, a surprise decision cannot be completely ruled out.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow/Ice Day’ Forecast for Wednesday, December 17, 2025

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Patchy freezing drizzle or light freezing rain is expected to develop across portions of Southwestern, Central and Eastern Ontario overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

While this freezing rain risk is not expected to be particularly impactful or widespread, it could still lead to a thin glaze of ice forming on untreated surfaces. This includes rural roads, sidewalks and vehicles, especially in areas where temperatures hover near the freezing mark through the night.

At this time, conditions are not expected to reach the threshold that would normally prompt widespread school bus cancellations. However, we cannot completely rule it out, especially if Environment Canada issues advisories overnight or if the freezing rain ends up being more widespread than currently forecast.

The most likely region to see an “ice day” is the North Hastings zone within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. This area has a long history of being particularly cautious, largely due to its extensive network of rural routes where back road conditions can deteriorate quickly, even during relatively minor icing events. We have assigned this region a 25 percent chance to reflect that slightly elevated risk, though the overall lean remains toward buses running without major issues.

Elsewhere across the rural portions of Eastern, Central and Southwestern Ontario, we have assigned a low 5 to 10 percent chance of cancellations. Most school boards are expected to operate normally on Wednesday, but a few localized decisions cannot be ruled out depending on overnight road conditions.

This includes areas covered by Tri-Board, the Renfrew County District School Board, the Upper Canada District School Board, the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, the Near North District School Board, the Simcoe County District School Board, the northern portion of the Durham District School Board, the Upper Grand District School Board, the Bluewater District School Board and the Avon Maitland District School Board.

Outside of these regions, no weather-related school bus cancellations are expected on Wednesday. So for now, it looks like homework remains on the schedule.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Tuesday, December 16, 2025

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We are expecting a fairly quiet day weather-wise on Tuesday across Southern Ontario, with no major weather in place to cause widespread travel issues.

Because of this, there is nothing in the forecast that would suggest a strong likelihood of school bus cancellations.

The only area with any notable chance is the Parry Sound region under the Near North District School Board, where a snow squall warning remains in effect. That activity is expected to weaken overnight, making it questionable whether it will have any meaningful impact on the morning commute.

Even so, given this school board’s history of being particularly sensitive to weather conditions, we cannot completely rule out a surprise decision. As a result, we have assigned Parry Sound a 10 percent chance.

Outside of the Parry Sound area, no weather-related school bus cancellations are expected on Tuesday.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Monday, December 15, 2025

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After an active weekend that featured periods of snow squall activity across portions of Southern Ontario’s snowbelt, conditions are expected to steadily improve later Sunday evening as the lake effect weakens and winds begin to ease.

Because of this, there are no major weather concerns expected overnight that would normally keep school buses off the roads on Monday. Most regions should see calmer conditions by the time the morning bus run begins.

That said, we cannot completely rule out a few isolated cancellations tied to lingering blowing snow and rural roads that may remain snow covered following Sunday’s squalls. Any issues would be highly localized and mainly confined to areas that saw the most persistent snowfall.

If cancellations do occur, they would most likely be found in Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Middlesex County within the Thames Valley District School Board, and Lambton County for the Lambton Kent District School Board.

We have assigned these regions a 25 percent chance of a snow day on Monday to account for the potential for rural route issues. Widespread cancellations are not expected.

Elsewhere across the snowbelt, we have maintained a low to very low chance simply to account for the outside possibility of a surprise decision.

If a surprise cancellation does occur outside of the regions mentioned above, the most likely candidate would be the Near North District School Board. Some light snow and lake effect activity may redevelop there later in the day, and this board has a history of being proactive when Environment Canada issues alerts. If any alerts are in place by early Monday morning, some cancellations are possible.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, no school bus cancellations are expected on Monday. So for now, it looks like homework is back on the menu.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Friday, December 12, 2025

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Snow squalls that remained locked in place east of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay brought a second straight snow day to many students across the snowbelt, with school buses cancelled both Wednesday and Thursday. But for anyone hoping to turn this into a rare three-day streak and stretch the weekend a little further, the chances are not looking nearly as promising.

Through Thursday evening, the squalls have already begun to weaken, with intensity dropping off compared to earlier in the day. That downward trend is expected to continue overnight as winds ease and the lake effect snow machine gradually winds down. By morning, conditions should look much calmer, at least in terms of new snowfall.

However, despite the improvement in weather, many communities have spent the past 12 to 24 hours getting buried in persistent snow squalls. Road crews will be working hard overnight, but in the hardest-hit areas, it is unlikely that every rural route will be fully cleared by the time the morning bus run begins. Even without active squalls on Friday morning, the snow already on the ground may be enough for some school boards to consider keeping buses off the road for a third day.

Confidence in widespread cancellations is not particularly high, so we have capped the maximum at a 50 percent chance. This zone includes Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, southern Bruce County within the Bluewater District School Board, and the Simcoe West zone under the Simcoe County District School Board. These regions experienced the most persistent squall activity today, and their large number of rural routes increases the likelihood that cleanup may not be fully completed by morning.

Outside this core area, a slight chance (25 percent) has been assigned to several surrounding regions. This includes Middlesex and Oxford counties within the Thames Valley District School Board, Perth County for AMDSB, the remainder of Bluewater, including northern Bruce County and all of Grey County, as well as Simcoe Central and Simcoe South. While buses should be able to run in most of these locations, the final decision will depend heavily on how effective overnight cleanup efforts are. Simcoe’s Central and South zones are also more urban, and historically, these areas require more severe conditions before cancellations are considered.

For the remainder of Southern Ontario, a snow day on Friday appears unlikely. Most regions fall into the very low to low category, with no significant weather expected overnight or Friday morning that would normally prompt cancellations. Unless there are unexpected localized issues left behind from today’s squalls, most students should plan for a regular school day.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.