Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Thursday, February 12, 2026

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Scattered lake effect snow east of Lake Huron has continued to impact portions of Grey, Bruce, Huron and Perth counties throughout the day on Wednesday. While snowfall rates have not been particularly intense, localized blowing snow has created pockets of reduced visibility, especially on exposed rural routes.

This activity is expected to persist overnight and into Thursday morning. However, significant additional accumulation is not anticipated, with most areas seeing only light to moderate snowfall.

Even without heavy new snowfall, the combination of existing snow on the ground and gusty winds could still create locally treacherous travel conditions in parts of the Lake Huron snowbelt. Because of this, there remains a chance that a few school boards may opt to cancel buses on Thursday morning.

The strongest probability is focused on southern Bruce County within the Bluewater District School Board and northern Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board. These areas are most exposed to Lake Huron and are more susceptible to blowing and drifting snow. We have assigned these regions a 50 percent chance of school bus cancellations. With no major accumulation expected, the final decision will likely hinge on how intense the blowing snow is during the early morning hours. Current forecasts suggest winds may begin to ease overnight, which keeps this scenario uncertain.

The remainder of the Avon Maitland District School Board, along with central Bruce County and southern Grey County within the Bluewater District School Board, has been assigned a slight 25 percent chance. While some localized blowing snow may occur, confidence is higher that buses will be able to operate normally in these regions, given that they are outside the most intense snowfall bands tonight.

Outside of the Lake Huron shoreline and adjacent snowbelt areas, no impactful winter weather is expected on Thursday. As a result, school bus cancellations are unlikely across the rest of Southern Ontario.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Localized School Bus Cancellations Possible on Wednesday in Parts of Southern Ontario

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

While the heavier snow that impacted parts of Eastern Ontario earlier on Tuesday has begun to wind down, lingering impacts may still be felt into Wednesday morning. This will be especially true in rural areas, where secondary roads and backroads may remain snow-covered or poorly cleared by the time buses are scheduled to be on the road.

Behind this departing system, attention turns back to the lakes. Some scattered lake effect snow is expected to redevelop east of Lake Huron overnight and continue into Wednesday morning. Gusty winds, at times reaching 50 to 60 km/h, may combine with this snow to produce areas of blowing and drifting snow. This setup could lead to locally reduced visibility and difficult travel conditions through portions of Grey Bruce and extending into Huron and Perth counties.

Because of this, the strongest chance for school bus cancellations on Wednesday is focused on southern Bruce County within the Bluewater District School Board. This region is most directly exposed to Lake Huron and typically sees stronger wind gusts when lake effect activity is present. Even lighter snowfall amounts can quickly become problematic here due to blowing snow on rural routes.

That said, there is still some uncertainty with this setup. Ice coverage on Lake Huron has increased substantially, which can limit how organized and intense the lake effect snow becomes. We have seen several recent events underperform, likely due to forecast models overestimating the available moisture from a partially frozen lake. Because of this uncertainty, and with no active Environment Canada alerts currently in place, we have capped the probability at 50 percent for southern Bruce County, as it could genuinely go either way.

A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to the remainder of the Bluewater District School Board, as well as northern sections of Huron and Perth counties, under the Avon Maitland District School Board. In these areas, significant new snowfall is not expected. However, strong winds could still lead to localized blowing and drifting snow, which may be enough to prompt a few cancellations, particularly on exposed rural routes.

We have also extended a 25 percent chance into parts of rural Eastern Ontario. This includes areas covered by the Upper Canada District School Board, North and Central Frontenac, North Lennox and Addington, and North Hastings under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, as well as the Madawaska region under the Renfrew County District School Board.

While active snowfall should be over by Wednesday morning in these regions, experience has shown that backroads can take longer to fully clear when snow tapers off the evening before. That lingering cleanup concern keeps a few of these boards in play for isolated cancellations.

Outside of these areas, the probability drops off quickly. A widespread low to very low chance has been assigned across adjacent school boards through Central Ontario and into the rest of Eastern Ontario.

While the odd surprise cancellation cannot be completely ruled out based on local road conditions, we are not expecting any widespread issues, and most school boards should see a normal return to classes on Wednesday.

Across Deep Southwestern Ontario, along the Lake Erie shoreline and throughout the Golden Horseshoe, school bus cancellations are not expected. Conditions in these regions should remain manageable, with no significant snowfall or blowing snow anticipated overnight or into the morning.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Up to 10-20cm of Snow on Tuesday Could Bring Widespread Bus Cancellations to Parts of Southern Ontario

/

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/2/10/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Widespread snow is expected to spread across much of Central and Eastern Ontario overnight and continue into Tuesday morning. This system will bring a steady period of snowfall that is likely to create hazardous travel conditions through the morning and into the early afternoon, with reduced visibility and snow-covered roads becoming an issue during the busiest travel periods of the day.

While snowfall totals are not expected to be extreme, most areas will see general accumulations in the 10 to 15 cm range, with localized totals approaching 20 cm where snowfall rates remain steadier. The bigger concern with this event is not the total amount of snow, but rather the timing, as the worst conditions are expected to coincide with the morning commute and linger well into the afternoon.

Because of this, there is a meaningful chance that some school boards will opt to cancel buses on Tuesday, particularly in regions where snow is actively falling at the time decisions are made early in the morning.

At this time, Environment Canada has opted to issue a special weather statement rather than a snowfall warning, citing slightly lower totals than what some models are suggesting. This adds an extra layer of uncertainty, as many school boards are less likely to act proactively without a formal warning in place. Should this be upgraded to a snowfall warning by Tuesday morning, confidence in bus cancellations would increase quickly.

Our highest confidence for school bus cancellations is focused on areas where snow is expected to be ongoing during the decision window. This includes Parry Sound and East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board. With steady snowfall expected through the early morning hours and limited time for cleanup, we have given these regions a 75% chance of bus cancellations on Tuesday.

In the next tier, we have a broad toss-up zone with a 50% chance, where outcomes could genuinely go either way. This includes Muskoka and Haliburton under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, North Bay within the Near North District School Board, North Hastings, North Lennox and Addington, and North and Central Frontenac under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, along with the Madawaska region under the Renfrew County District School Board.

Confidence is lower in these areas for a few reasons. In the case of TLDSB, this school board has been particularly strict with bus cancellations this season and may decide that this event does not meet their threshold without a snowfall warning. In Eastern Ontario, snowfall may not begin until later in the morning, meaning boards would need to be proactive based on forecast conditions rather than what is occurring at decision time. Regions that historically tend to act more cautiously have been placed into this 50% category.

A wider group of regions has been assigned a slight chance, around 25%. This includes the Bruce Peninsula under the Bluewater District School Board, the Simcoe North weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board, North Kawartha Lakes under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, the remaining Tri-Board regions, the Upper Canada District School Board, and the remainder of the Renfrew County District School Board. These areas sit just outside the zone of heaviest snowfall during the school day, making it questionable whether conditions will deteriorate enough to prompt cancellations.

For Ottawa, we have gone with a 10 percent chance. While some snow is expected, this system is not currently forecast to be intense enough to meet the higher threshold typically required for cancellations in a large urban school board. We have also extended a very low to low chance into parts of the Golden Horseshoe, particularly rural sections that could see a brief risk of freezing rain during the afternoon. If Environment Canada issues an alert for freezing rain by Tuesday morning, probabilities would increase, but confidence is not high enough at this point to go beyond a low chance.

No school bus cancellations are expected across Deep Southwestern Ontario or the urban school boards of the Greater Toronto Area. Snowfall in these regions will be minimal, and some areas may even climb above the freezing mark during the day on Tuesday, further reducing the likelihood of travel disruptions.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow/Cold Day’ Forecast for Monday, February 9, 2026

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

While no precipitation is expected across Southern Ontario on Monday, there is still a slight chance of school bus cancellations tied to extreme cold in some parts of the region.

The coldest conditions are expected to be found across portions of Central and Eastern Ontario, where overnight lows combined with wind chills could make it feel near -40°C. Actual air temperatures in these areas may dip into the -25 to -30°C range by Monday morning. This places temperatures very close to the threshold that typically prompts cold-related bus cancellations.

That said, confidence is not particularly high. Some forecast guidance keeps temperatures just warm enough to stay below that cancellation threshold, while other models suggest a slightly colder outcome. With cold events like this, even a difference of a couple of degrees can make a big difference when it comes to school board decisions.

Because of this uncertainty, we have assigned a 25 percent chance of cold-related bus cancellations to Muskoka and Haliburton under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Parry Sound and East Parry Sound within the Near North District School Board, North Hastings, North Lennox and Addington, and North and Central Frontenac under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, as well as the Madawaska region within the Renfrew County District School Board. If any cold day cancellations are announced on Monday, they are most likely to occur within this group of school boards.

Outside of these areas, the probability drops off quickly. We have extended a low to very low chance into parts of rural Southwestern Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe. While temperatures here are not expected to reach cold-day thresholds, it cannot be completely ruled out if overnight lows end up a few degrees colder than forecast, particularly in more exposed rural areas.

For the remainder of Southern Ontario, school bus cancellations are not expected on Monday. Conditions elsewhere should remain cold but manageable, staying below the level that would typically lead to widespread cold-related disruptions.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Blast of Heavy Snow on Friday Afternoon May Lead to School Bus Cancellations in Parts of Southern Ontario

/

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/2/6/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

A messy weather setup is expected across Southern Ontario on Friday, as a burst of heavy snow moves into the region later in the day. Strong winds combined with falling snow are expected to create areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility, particularly through the afternoon and early evening hours. This has prompted Environment Canada to issue a widespread blowing snow advisory across much of Southwestern Ontario.

When it comes to impacts on school transportation, however, the situation is less straightforward. The worst conditions are expected to develop after the school day is already underway, with the most hazardous travel lining up closer to the afternoon commute rather than the morning bus run.

There may be some light snow around during the morning hours, but at this point, it does not appear to be enough on its own to meet the threshold that typically leads to school bus cancellations. Because of this timing, school boards would need to be proactive and factor in rapidly deteriorating conditions later in the day, rather than what is occurring at decision time in the early morning.

Given the blowing snow advisory from Environment Canada and the potential for travel conditions to worsen quickly while buses are on the roads in the afternoon, we have gone with a 50 percent chance for school bus cancellations for regions covered by the Bluewater District School Board, the Avon Maitland District School Board, and Middlesex County under the Thames Valley District School Board. This is very much a borderline scenario and could genuinely go either way. If this system were arriving a few hours earlier, confidence in cancellations would be much higher.

A second tier of regions carries a slight chance, around 25 percent, for a snow day on Friday. This includes areas covered by the Greater Essex County District School Board, the Lambton Kent District School Board, Elgin and Oxford counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board, the Near North District School Board, and the Rainbow District School Board. These areas are more rural in nature and are likely to see snow begin during or just ahead of the afternoon bus run. While most of these regions are expected to operate normally, a few localized decisions to cancel buses cannot be ruled out.

Outside of these zones, probabilities drop off further. We have assigned a widespread low to very low chance across rural school boards around the Golden Horseshoe and extending into parts of Central and Eastern Ontario. In these areas, the bulk of the snow is expected to arrive closer to the dinner hour, which greatly reduces the likelihood of school boards cancelling buses earlier in the day.

That said, if Environment Canada expands blowing snow advisories farther east or begins highlighting particularly poor travel conditions during the afternoon commute, some of the more weather-sensitive school boards could opt to cancel buses as a precaution.

For the more urban school boards, including those across the Greater Toronto Area and the Ottawa region, we are not expecting any school bus cancellations on Friday. Conditions in these areas are not forecast to come anywhere near the threshold that typically prompts cancellations, and travel should remain manageable through the school day.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Thursday, February 5, 2026

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

No impactful winter weather is expected across Southern Ontario throughout the day on Thursday.

As a result, all regions have a less than 5 percent chance of school bus cancellations.

It’s shaping up to be a quiet and routine school day, so… do your homework!

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Wednesday, February 4, 2026

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

No impactful winter weather is expected across Southern Ontario throughout the day on Wednesday.

As a result, all regions have a less than 5 percent chance of school bus cancellations.

It’s shaping up to be a quiet and routine school day, so… do your homework!

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Tuesday, February 3, 2026

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Periods of light snow are expected tonight into Tuesday across Southern Ontario.

Snowfall amounts are expected to remain fairly minor, with most areas picking up less than 5 cm by the time the snow tapers off late Tuesday. Because of this, conditions are not expected to deteriorate enough to reach the threshold that typically leads to school bus cancellations.

That said, there is a very small window for isolated impacts in a few regions near the lakes. We have assigned a very low chance to areas covered by the Bluewater District School Board, the Avon Maitland District School Board and the Near North District School Board. In these regions, snow is expected to be heaviest close to the time when school boards are making their morning decisions.

In addition, slightly stronger winds near the Lake Huron and Georgian Bay shorelines could lead to some localized blowing snow, briefly reducing visibility on exposed rural routes. Even so, snowfall rates and overall accumulation should remain limited, making cancellations unlikely.

Because of these marginal factors, we have gone with a 5 percent chance for these regions. This is very much a “don’t count on it” scenario, and the expectation remains that buses will run as normal.

Everywhere else across Southern Ontario is not expected to see any chance of a snow day on Tuesday. Snowfall should be light, roads should remain manageable, and no significant travel disruptions are anticipated.

So despite a bit of light snow in the forecast, Tuesday is shaping up to be a routine school day across the province. In other words, homework is still on the schedule!

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Monday, February 2, 2026

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

No major winter weather is expected throughout Monday that could disrupt school buses across Southern Ontario.

While there are cold temperatures expected in some areas, it’s unlikely to reach the threshold for cancellations.

All areas should do their homework tonight!

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow/Cold Day’ Forecast: Wind Chills Near -40°C Could Cancel Some School Buses Across Southern Ontario on Friday

/

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

While snow squall activity around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay has underperformed so far on Thursday, allowing for fewer school bus cancellations than initially expected, the snow squall threat is not over just yet. Additional lake effect activity is expected to persist overnight and into Friday morning, keeping the door open for further disruptions.

On top of that, a surge of Arctic air will settle across Southern Ontario overnight. Temperatures in some areas are expected to fall toward -30°C, with wind chills making it feel closer to -40°C by Friday morning. That combination of lingering snow squalls and extreme cold could be enough to prompt at least some school boards to keep buses off the roads on Friday.

It’s also worth noting that many school boards have a PA Day scheduled for Friday. If that applies to your region, consider it a guaranteed cold day and enjoy sleeping through the worst of the wind chills. However, for the purpose of this forecast, we are treating Friday as a normal school day across all boards, as PA Day schedules vary and not every board follows the same calendar.

For school boards that are operating, our strongest confidence for bus cancellations is focused along the Lake Huron snowbelt. This includes Kincardine and Meaford within the Bluewater District School Board, along with northern Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board.

These areas are most likely to see renewed snow squall activity overnight if the bands are able to organize. However, given the inconsistent model performance with this lake effect setup, confidence is not high enough to place these regions in the highest category. As a result, we have kept them below the 90 percent threshold.

For the remainder of the Bluewater District School Board, excluding the Bruce Peninsula, as well as the rest of the Avon Maitland District School Board and the Simcoe West weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board, we have assigned a 50 percent chance. In these areas, the risk comes from a combination of scattered snow squall impacts and the potential for extreme cold near cancellation thresholds.

A broad swath of Central and Eastern Ontario has also been placed in the 50 percent category due primarily to the cold. Typically, air temperatures near minus 30 degrees or wind chills approaching minus 40 are required before most school boards consider cancelling buses due to cold alone.

Current forecasts suggest many areas may come within just a few degrees of those thresholds, but could fall just short. Because of that uncertainty and the tendency for models to occasionally underestimate cold air outbreaks, we’ve gone with a 50 percent chance that could swing either way.

This 50 percent zone includes all regions covered by the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Parry Sound and East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board, Peterborough and Northumberland counties under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, the northern sections of Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, and the Madawaska region under the Renfrew County District School Board. This also extends into higher elevation areas of Southwestern Ontario, including Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board.

For a slight chance of bus cancellations, we have included the remainder of the Renfrew County District School Board, the Upper Canada District School Board, the southern sections of Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, Clarington under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, northern Durham Region, the remaining Simcoe County District School Board weather zones, Guelph under the Upper Grand District School Board, the Waterloo Region District School Board, and Oxford and Middlesex counties under the Thames Valley District School Board.

These areas are either more urban in nature or are expected to see slightly warmer temperatures, which should keep them below cold day thresholds. However, if temperatures end up just a few degrees colder than forecast, a handful of surprise cancellations would not be out of the question.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, including the more urban school boards across the Golden Horseshoe and into Deep Southwestern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations remains low. While it will be cold, temperatures and wind chills are not expected to reach the levels typically required for widespread cold-related cancellations in these areas.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Some Students in Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt Could See Another Day of Bus Cancellations on Thursday

/

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/29/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

The story of the past few weeks across Southern Ontario has been relentless snow squall activity, leaving some communities with only a handful of actual school days during that stretch. Unfortunately for those hoping for a break, that pattern shows no real signs of ending just yet. Additional snow squall activity is expected to linger into Thursday, raising the likelihood of yet another snow day for parts of the region.

While this round of snow squalls is not expected to be as widespread as what we have seen over the last few days, regions east of Lake Huron will continue to deal with difficult travel conditions. Persistent bursts of snow, blowing snow, and reduced visibility are expected to remain an issue, particularly in areas that have already been repeatedly impacted and are still struggling to fully dig out.

Our highest confidence for school bus cancellations on Thursday is centred on Bruce County within the Bluewater District School Board. This includes Kincardine, Southampton and the Bruce Peninsula. These areas sit squarely within the core snowbelt and are expected to continue seeing treacherous conditions into Thursday. With many rural routes still snow-covered and additional squalls possible, we have given this region a 90 percent chance of a snow day.

Surrounding areas also carry a strong likelihood of cancellations, though confidence is slightly lower than in the core snowbelt. North Huron County, under the Avon Maitland District School Board, along with Owen Sound and Meaford within the Bluewater District School Board, have been assigned a 75 percent chance. Conditions in these areas are likely to be poor enough to justify cancellations, but there is more uncertainty given that the most persistent squall activity may remain closer to the Lake Huron shoreline north of Kincardine.

In our toss-up category, where conditions could genuinely go either way, we have included southern Huron County and northern Perth County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Hanover within the Bluewater District School Board, and the Simcoe West weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board. These regions have been given a 50 percent chance, as outcomes will depend heavily on how far inland and how far south the snow squall bands are able to stretch during the morning and early afternoon.

Farther away from the core snowbelt, probabilities drop off further. We have assigned a 25 percent chance to southern Perth County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board, and the Simcoe Central and Simcoe North weather zones. Snow squalls may occasionally brush these areas through Thursday, with Simcoe County being the most likely to see brief impacts. However, given the Simcoe County District School Board’s track record of maintaining a high threshold for cancellations and often running buses despite active alerts, we are leaning toward buses operating in most of these areas.

We have also assigned a 25 percent chance to Prince Edward County under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. This region has seen substantial snowfall over the past several days from repeated snow squall activity. While the squalls themselves are expected to taper off by Thursday morning, backroads may still be in rough shape, which keeps the door open for potential cancellations.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, the chance of a snow day on Thursday remains low. Most regions outside of the Lake Huron snowbelt are not expected to see significant impacts from this round of squalls, and conditions should be manageable enough for school buses to operate as normal.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Another Likely Day of School Bus Cancellations in Parts of Southern Ontario on Wednesday

/

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/28/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Widespread snow squall activity has developed off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay through the day on Tuesday and shows no signs of letting up as we head into the overnight hours and into Wednesday. These squalls are producing bursts of heavy snow, significantly reduced visibility and areas of blowing snow, creating very hazardous travel conditions in the snowbelt.

Localized snowfall totals of up to 20 to 30 cm are possible in the most persistent bands by Wednesday. With snow continuing to fall and winds remaining gusty, it is almost certain that school buses will be unable to operate safely in the hardest hit regions on Wednesday.

Our highest confidence for a snow day remains focused on areas east of Lake Huron, where the most intense and long-lasting squalls are expected. This includes all regions covered by the Bluewater District School Board, along with Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board. These areas sit directly within the core of the snowbelt and feature a high number of rural routes that are especially vulnerable to drifting and whiteout conditions. As a result, we have assigned these regions a 90 percent chance of school bus cancellations on Wednesday.

A strong likelihood tier follows closely behind, with a 75 percent chance of cancellations for Perth County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Dufferin County within the Upper Grand District School Board, and the Simcoe West and Simcoe North weather zones under the Simcoe County District School Board. While these areas are expected to see snow squall impacts, they sit slightly farther from the most intense activity. In the case of Simcoe County, the school board has shown a higher threshold for cancellations this season and has run buses in similar conditions before, which keeps confidence slightly lower despite the expectation of poor travel conditions.

In the toss-up category, where outcomes could genuinely go either way, we have included the Simcoe Central weather zone, Wellington County under the Upper Grand District School Board, and South Muskoka within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board. These regions are currently under snow squall warnings, but confidence is lower on how severe conditions will be during the morning bus run. Depending on how quickly squalls weaken or shift overnight, some of these areas may attempt to run buses despite the active alerts.

We have also placed Prince Edward County under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services in the 50 percent category. This region has been impacted by snow squalls earlier today, and while snowfall has tapered off, road conditions may remain questionable into Wednesday morning, especially on secondary and rural routes.

Outside of the core snowbelt, probabilities drop off more quickly. A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to Middlesex and Oxford counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, the Simcoe South weather zone, Georgina within the York Region District School Board, North Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, the Parry Sound region under the Near North District School Board, and Belleville along with South Lennox and Addington under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. Most of these areas are not expected to see significant snowfall, but localized blowing snow or lingering poor road conditions could still allow for a few surprise cancellations.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, including the Golden Horseshoe, Deep Southwestern Ontario and much of Eastern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Wednesday remains low. These regions are expected to see minimal impacts from the lake effect activity, with conditions remaining manageable enough for buses to operate as normal.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Chance of School Bus Cancellations Return to Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt on Tuesday With Snow Squall Risk

/

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/27/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

After a disruptive snowstorm delivered Toronto’s largest single-day snowfall on record on Sunday, students across much of the Golden Horseshoe and Eastern Ontario saw widespread school bus cancellations and even school closures on Monday. But for communities closer to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, it marked a return to normal, with students finally heading back to school after being off for much of the previous week in some areas.

Now that the main storm system has moved out of the region, attention turns back to lake effect snow. Snow squall activity is expected to redevelop across Southern Ontario’s snowbelt, bringing with it the renewed potential for school bus cancellations on Tuesday.

Localized snow squalls are forecast to develop tonight across the Bruce Peninsula and then extend northeast of Georgian Bay into the Parry Sound region through Tuesday morning. As the day progresses, these squalls are expected to gradually shift south of the region, but not before producing periods of heavy snow and poor visibility during the morning hours.

With snow squall warnings in place from Environment Canada, highlighting the risk of significant snowfall and reduced visibility, there is a strong chance that some of the hardest hit regions will experience another snow day on Tuesday.

Our highest confidence is in the Parry Sound region under the Near North District School Board. This area is expected to see the most intense and persistent snow squall activity through the morning, making bus travel unsafe. As a result, we have assigned Parry Sound a 90 percent chance of school bus cancellations.

A strong likelihood follows closely behind, with a 75 percent chance assigned to the Bruce Peninsula within the Bluewater District School Board and East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board. While the Bruce Peninsula is expected to see treacherous conditions, Bluewater has already experienced a high number of cancellations this season. Because of that, there remains a slight chance they may attempt to run buses if conditions are marginal early in the morning, keeping this region just below the highest tier.

Along the Lake Huron shoreline, including the remainder of Bruce County and extending into North Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, we have assigned a 50 percent chance. Snowfall totals here are not expected to be extreme, but strong wind gusts of 50 to 60 km/h could lead to areas of blowing snow and rapidly changing visibility. These conditions could go either way depending on how exposed routes are early Tuesday morning.

Farther inland, confidence drops off. Perth County, under the Avon Maitland District School Board, and all of Grey County within the Bluewater District School Board have been given a 25 percent chance. Winds are expected to weaken farther from the lakes, and snowfall intensity should be lower, making cancellations less likely but not impossible.

East of Georgian Bay, North Muskoka, under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, has been placed in the 50 percent category, as it currently sits under a snow squall warning. That said, TLDSB has a history of holding off on cancellations unless conditions are actively poor during the morning bus run, even when warnings are in effect. Because of that, confidence remains split. South Muskoka under TLDSB and North Bay within the Near North District School Board have been assigned a lower 25 percent chance.

Farther east, lake effect activity may also impact Northumberland County into the Belleville and Picton area. Environment Canada has issued a snow squall watch for this region from Tuesday morning into the evening. Because of that, we have given Belleville and Prince Edward County under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services a 50 percent chance of bus cancellations.

A 25 percent chance has also been assigned to Northumberland County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, as well as Central Hastings, Central Lennox and Addington, and South Frontenac under Tri-Board. While it remains questionable whether conditions will be severe enough to prompt cancellations in these areas, these school boards tend to be more proactive when Environment Canada alerts are in place, which keeps the door open for possible decisions.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, the chance of a snow day on Tuesday is low to very low. Some regions that were hit hard by Sunday’s historic snowfall could still see lingering cleanup issues, but widespread cancellations for that reason appear unlikely.

In fact, the Toronto District School Board has already confirmed that schools will be open on Tuesday, despite Toronto being the hardest hit area from Sunday’s storm. With that in mind, it becomes increasingly questionable that other regions would cancel solely due to cleanup concerns if Toronto is able to reopen.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Many School Bus Cancellations & School Closures Likely on Monday as Southern Ontario Digs Out From Snowstorm

/

MAP UPDATED WITH ANNOUNCED CLOSURES AS OF 10:15 PM

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/26/bus-cancellations

Original Forecast:

A massive snowstorm is currently bearing down on Southern Ontario, with a particular focus on the Greater Toronto Area. Snowfall totals in some parts of the region are expected to approach or even exceed 50 cm by the time the storm winds down late Sunday.

While the heaviest snow is expected to taper off several hours before the Monday morning commute, cleanup efforts will only just be getting underway. With such an extreme amount of snow on the ground, school bus cancellations and even school closures are close to a certainty across large portions of the region.

The greatest concern remains across the Golden Horseshoe, where strong lake enhancement is expected to significantly boost snowfall totals, as well as Eastern Ontario, where snow is forecast to linger into Monday morning.

In these regions, road conditions are expected to be extremely poor, with snow-covered and impassable routes likely during the morning hours. Because of this, we have assigned a 90 percent chance of a snow day on Monday.

This highest confidence zone includes the Hamilton-Wentworth District School Board, the Halton District School Board, the Peel District School Board, the Toronto District School Board, the southern portion of the Durham District School Board, Clarington and Northumberland counties under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, all areas covered by Tri-Board Student Transportation Services with the exception of North Hastings, and the Upper Canada District School Board.

Given the scale of this storm and the sheer volume of snow expected, it is difficult to see how buses could operate safely in these areas as crews work to dig out from the heaviest snowfall totals.

If there are any surprises within this highest confidence zone, they would most likely come from one or two of the more urban school boards within the Greater Toronto Area. In particular, parts of Durham Region or Hamilton could end up on the lower end of snowfall totals if lake enhancement underperforms locally. Even in that scenario, however, any decision to run buses would fall within the small remaining uncertainty already accounted for.

In the next tier, the probability of a snow day remains high, but confidence is slightly lower as outcomes will depend more heavily on how much snow falls outside of the core lake-enhanced zones. We have assigned a 75 percent chance to the Niagara District School Board, the Grand Erie District School Board, Oxford County under the Thames Valley District School Board, the Waterloo Region District School Board, the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe South weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board, South Kawartha Lakes under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, North Hastings under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, the Madawaska region and Renfrew County under the Renfrew County District School Board, and the Ottawa region.

Ottawa in particular is expected to see significant snowfall, but given the urban nature of the school board and its typically higher threshold for cancellations, there remains a small chance buses could still run if conditions improve faster than expected.

In the toss-up category, where outcomes could genuinely go either way, we have assigned a 50 percent chance to the Greater Essex County District School Board, Chatham-Kent and Lambton County under the Lambton Kent District School Board, Middlesex and Elgin counties along with the City of London under the Thames Valley District School Board, the Avon Maitland District School Board, and the southern portions of Grey and Bruce counties under the Bluewater District School Board. In these areas, snowfall is expected to taper off earlier in the evening, giving road crews more time to clear routes before Monday morning. Whether that cleanup can keep pace with the snowfall will be the deciding factor.

East of Lake Huron, overall snowfall totals are expected to be lower. However, given the amount of snow that has already fallen in recent days, it would not take much additional accumulation to push parts of Huron, Perth and Grey-Bruce into another snow day scenario.

Farther north into Central Ontario, we have also assigned a 50 percent chance to the Simcoe Central and Simcoe West weather zones under the Simcoe County District School Board, North Kawartha Lakes and Haliburton within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and Pembroke under the Renfrew County District School Board. Snowfall totals here are expected to be lower overall, but the snow may not fully wrap up until overnight, leaving limited time for cleanup before the morning decision is made.

A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to Sarnia under the Lambton Kent District School Board, northern Grey and Bruce counties within the Bluewater District School Board, the Simcoe North weather zone, and Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board. These regions are expected to see more modest impacts, generally in the range of 5 to 10 cm of additional snowfall. That amount alone would not normally reach cancellation thresholds, but given the broader regional impacts of this storm, a few surprise decisions cannot be completely ruled out.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Some Students May Not Return to School This Week in Southern Ontario With Fifth Consecutive Day of Bus Cancellations on Friday

/

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/23/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Lake effect snow and persistent snow squalls continue to show no signs of letting up, as they have spent much of Thursday burying portions of Muskoka, Parry Sound and the Grey Bruce region. This activity is expected to remain focused on these same areas overnight, keeping snowfall rates high and travel conditions dangerous.

By Friday morning, the orientation of the squalls is expected to shift slightly southward. This will allow the most intense lake effect bands to push into Simcoe County and southern portions of Grey Bruce, while still maintaining impacts across areas east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

Given that many of these regions have already seen significant snowfall throughout the day, including numerous road closures and whiteout conditions, confidence is extremely high that school buses will remain off the roads. In fact, for parts of Grey Bruce, Huron and Perth counties, this stretch of lake effect snow means some students may not end up attending school at all this week, with weather conditions keeping buses parked since Monday.

The areas where school bus cancellations are essentially guaranteed include northern Huron and northern Perth counties under the Avon Maitland District School Board, all regions covered by the Bluewater District School Board, the Simcoe North weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board, both North and South Muskoka within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and the Parry Sound region under the Near North District School Board. These areas sit directly within the core snowbelt, where heavy snowfall, blowing snow and poor visibility will persist through Friday.

A strong likelihood zone, with a 75 percent chance of a snow day, includes southern Huron and southern Perth counties under the Avon Maitland District School Board, the Simcoe West and Simcoe Central weather zones, and Haliburton within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board. For Simcoe County, confidence is slightly lower because the most intense squalls are not expected to push that far south until later in the morning, after bus decisions are typically made. In addition, the Simcoe County District School Board has shown a mixed track record when it comes to proactive cancellations. The other regions in this tier sit just outside the most intense lake effect zone, and while cancellations are likely, confidence is not high enough to place them in the highest category.

In the toss up category, where conditions could genuinely go either way, we have assigned a 50 percent chance to Dufferin County under the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe South weather zone, Georgina under the York Region District School Board, North Kawartha Lakes within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board. These areas are close enough to the snowbelt that impacts are likely, but snowfall intensity and duration remain uncertain enough that cancellations are not a sure thing.

A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to Wellington County under the Upper Grand District School Board, the northern portion of the Durham District School Board, South Kawartha Lakes under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and North Hastings within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. These regions are not expected to see significant snowfall overnight or Friday morning, but local road conditions could still be problematic in rural areas with blowing snow.

Outside of these regions, the chance of a snow day on Friday drops off quickly. Most of the worst conditions are expected to remain confined to the snowbelt, and elsewhere across Southern Ontario, school buses should be able to operate as normal.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Localized School Bus Cancellations Likely on Thursday in Parts of Southern Ontario

/

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/22/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Snow squalls are expected to redevelop this evening across the Bruce Peninsula and then push east of Georgian Bay overnight. These squalls have the potential to be quite intense, bringing periods of near-zero visibility and rapid snowfall accumulation. The greatest impacts are expected across the Parry Sound and Muskoka regions, where totals could approach 25 to 50 cm by the end of Thursday.

With treacherous road conditions likely already in place by the morning commute and snow squall activity expected to persist into the afternoon, it is almost certain that the hardest hit regions will see another day of school bus cancellations on Thursday.

Our highest confidence for a snow day is focused on the Parry Sound region within the Near North District School Board and North Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board. These two areas are expected to be directly under the most persistent snow squall activity overnight, leaving little doubt that conditions will be unsafe for buses to operate. As a result, we have assigned both regions a 90 percent chance of a snow day.

We also have strong confidence that East Parry Sound, under the Near North District School Board and South Muskoka within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, will see bus cancellations on Thursday. That said, there is slightly more uncertainty with these zones. In East Parry Sound, it remains unclear how far inland the strongest squalls will reach. For South Muskoka, guidance suggests the most intense activity may remain just to the north during the morning before sagging southward later in the day.

While a strongly worded Environment Canada snow squall warning is in effect and would typically be enough to justify cancellations based on expected afternoon conditions, recent decisions show that TLDSB may be willing to roll the dice if a region is not directly under a squall during the morning bus run. Because of this, we have assigned South Muskoka a slightly lower, but still strong, 75 percent chance.

Farther north and east, additional regions that could see a snow day due to Georgian Bay activity include North Bay under the Near North District School Board and Haliburton within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board. These areas may see occasional bursts of snow squall activity on Thursday, but it remains uncertain whether impacts will be persistent enough to reach cancellation thresholds. Because of that uncertainty, we have gone with a 50 percent chance, as it could genuinely go either way.

Across the remainder of Central and Eastern Ontario, the chance of cancellations drops off quickly. Snowfall is expected to be limited in most of these areas on Thursday, and any lingering impacts would mainly be tied to cleanup from the Alberta Clipper rather than active weather. We have maintained a low chance for some rural school boards simply to account for the outside possibility that backroads are still not fully cleared by morning, but this scenario remains very questionable.

UPDATE (8 PM): Following the issuance of a snow squall watch by Environment Canada after this forecast was published, we have made a few adjustments to the probabilities for the Bluewater District School Board and the Avon Maitland District School Board.

For Bluewater, the Bruce Peninsula has been increased to a 90 percent chance. Southampton, Owen Sound and Meaford have been bumped up into the 75 percent category, while Kincardine and Hanover have been raised to a 50 percent chance.

For Avon Maitland, northern Huron and northern Perth counties have also been moved into the 50 percent zone.

All other regions and probabilities in the forecast remain unchanged.

In Southwestern Ontario, the main area of concern continues to be the Bruce Peninsula under the Bluewater District School Board. Ongoing snow squall activity here supports a strong 75 percent chance of bus cancellations, with conditions expected to remain hazardous through much of the day.

Just south of that core snowbelt zone, probabilities begin to taper off. We have assigned a 50 percent chance to Southampton, Owen Sound and Meaford within the Bluewater District School Board, where squalls may clip the area at times.

A 25 percent chance has been assigned to Kincardine and Hanover under Bluewater, along with all regions of the Avon Maitland District School Board. In these areas, snowfall amounts are expected to be lighter, but gusty winds combined with patchy lake effect snow could still lead to localized travel concerns.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, school bus cancellations are not expected on Thursday. Conditions should be manageable in most regions, particularly outside of the snowbelt. We have kept a very low chance for a few rural boards in Southwestern Ontario to account for blowing snow and some light snow moving through during the morning, but confidence in cancellations outside the main snow squall zones remains quite low.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: School Bus Cancellations Are Likely in Parts of Southern Ontario on Wednesday With Continued Squalls Followed by an Alberta Clipper

/

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/21/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

A shift in wind direction has caused snow squalls off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay to lift northward, pushing into the Bruce Peninsula and expanding into the Parry Sound and Muskoka regions.

This lake effect snow is expected to persist overnight and into Wednesday morning, with locally significant snowfall totals possible. In the most intense and persistent bands, some communities could see an additional 30 to 50 cm of snow by the time this activity winds down.

With snowfall of this magnitude falling over a relatively short period of time, travel conditions will deteriorate rapidly. Whiteout conditions, drifting snow and snow-covered rural routes will almost certainly keep school buses off the roads in the hardest hit areas on Wednesday.

At the same time, attention will also be on a separate system moving in from the west. An Alberta Clipper is expected to slide through Southern Ontario beginning Wednesday morning and continue throughout much of the day. While this system is not expected to produce widespread heavy snowfall, most areas should still pick up several centimetres.

In some locations, lake enhancement could boost totals closer to 10 to 15 cm. With snow falling during the school day rather than overnight, this raises the possibility of scattered bus cancellations outside of the core snow squall zones.

The highest confidence for a snow day remains in the areas directly impacted by the most intense lake effect activity. We have assigned a 90 percent chance to all regions of the Trillium Lakelands District School Board within Muskoka, the Parry Sound region under the Near North District School Board, and the Bruce Peninsula within the Bluewater District School Board.

In these areas, snow squalls are expected to remain relentless through Wednesday morning, making travel extremely hazardous. Impacts will be very localized, and once you move outside of these zones, probabilities drop quickly.

Immediately surrounding the core squall region, we have a 50 percent chance for East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board. Conditions here will be highly dependent on how far north and east the strongest squalls extend overnight.

We have also assigned a 25 percent chance to the remainder of the Simcoe County District School Board, the rest of the Trillium Lakelands District School Board and North Bay under the Near North District School Board.

In these areas, cancellations are questionable but cannot be ruled out if lake effect snow pushes farther inland than expected.

For impacts tied to the Alberta Clipper, our highest confidence is focused on Southwestern Ontario. Snow will arrive earlier in the day here, increasing the likelihood of cancellations when snowfall is actively occurring rather than forecasted for later when the decision is made in the morning.

Confidence is also higher across parts of Eastern Ontario along the Lake Ontario shoreline, where snowfall warnings are already in effect, and these school boards tend to be more proactive when poor afternoon conditions are expected.

A strong likelihood zone, with a 75 percent chance of a snow day, includes the remainder of the Bluewater District School Board outside the Bruce Peninsula, all regions covered by the Avon Maitland District School Board, Northumberland County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Belleville, Prince Edward County, South Lennox and Addington, South Frontenac and Kingston within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. In these regions, we expect many boards to opt for cancellations as conditions deteriorate through the day.

Across Deep Southwestern Ontario, we have assigned a 50 percent chance to all regions of the Lambton Kent District School Board and the Greater Essex County District School Board. Snow is expected to be falling during the decision-making window on Wednesday morning, and even without active warnings, snowfall combined with gusty winds could be enough to prompt cancellations.

This 50 percent zone also extends into Middlesex and Oxford counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, as well as Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board, where snowfall warnings are in effect and could justify proactive cancellations even if snow begins later in the morning.

In Eastern Ontario, we have also assigned a 50 percent chance to Central Hastings, Central Lennox and Addington, and North and Central Frontenac within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, along with Clarington under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board. Here, outcomes will depend heavily on snowfall rates and timing, with some areas potentially seeing enough accumulation during the day to warrant cancellations.

Once you move into more urban school boards across Southwestern Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe, confidence drops further. We have given a 25 percent chance to London and Elgin County under the Thames Valley District School Board, the Grand Erie District School Board, the Waterloo Region District School Board, Guelph within the Upper Grand District School Board, Georgina under the York Region District School Board and Durham Region.

While some of these areas are included in snowfall warnings, the forecasted amounts may fall just short of the higher thresholds typically required for cancellations. Elgin County, while not urban, is not currently under a snowfall warning, which is why it is lumped into the 25% chance.

Farther east, a 25 percent chance has also been assigned to Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, North Frontenac within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, and the Madawaska region under the Renfrew County District School Board. These areas are not currently under active warnings, and snow is expected to arrive later in the morning. However, if school boards opt for system-wide cancellations rather than region-specific decisions, a few surprises remain possible.

For the more urban school boards across the Greater Toronto Area, the chance of a snow day remains low to very low. Snowfall amounts are not expected to reach the high threshold these regions typically require for cancellations.

In the Ottawa Valley, snowfall is expected to be limited and delayed until the middle of the afternoon. Because of this timing and lower expected totals, school bus cancellations are not anticipated in this region on Wednesday.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Ongoing Snow Squall Activity in Southern Ontario Likely to Cancel School Buses on Tuesday in Some Areas

/

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/20/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

As expected, snow squall activity has been hammering the traditional snowbelt regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay throughout the day on Monday. This has already led to widespread school bus cancellations and even a handful of school closures in the hardest hit areas. With this lake effect activity expected to persist into Tuesday, it is becoming increasingly clear that some students will be waking up to their second snow day of the week.

Overnight, attention will turn to a particularly intense snow squall that is forecast to stretch across the Bruce Peninsula and then push southeast of Georgian Bay. This includes parts of Simcoe County, southern Muskoka, the Kawartha Lakes region and potentially as far east as Peterborough. At the same time, additional lake effect activity off Lake Huron is expected to continue impacting Huron and Perth counties, keeping snowfall rates elevated through the night and into Tuesday morning.

In addition to the snow, very cold Arctic air will remain firmly in place. Wind chills overnight into Tuesday morning are expected to drop sharply, with parts of Northern and Central Ontario potentially seeing wind chills as low as minus 35 to minus 40. In a few of the more northern and rural school boards, this may be cold enough to raise concerns about cold-related cancellations on top of the ongoing snow squall impacts.

The strongest confidence for a snow day on Tuesday lies across all regions covered by the Bluewater District School Board, the Simcoe West and Simcoe North weather zones under the Simcoe County District School Board, and the northern Kawartha Lakes region within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board.

These areas sit directly within the core of the most persistent snow squall activity and are very likely to see dangerous travel conditions during the morning bus run. As a result, we have assigned these regions a 90 percent chance of a snow day, with school closures even being a possibility in some communities.

A second tier of regions carries a strong likelihood, with a 75 percent chance of bus cancellations. This includes northern portions of Huron and Perth counties under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Dufferin County within the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe Central weather zone, South Kawartha Lakes and South Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and the Parry Sound region within the Near North District School Board. In these areas, we are leaning toward cancellations, but confidence is slightly lower than in the core snowbelt due to some uncertainty in squall placement and intensity.

In the toss-up category, where outcomes could genuinely go either way, we have included southern Huron and southern Perth counties under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Wellington County for the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe South weather zone, Georgina within the York Region District School Board, the northern portion of the Durham District School Board, North Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, East Parry Sound within the Near North District School Board, Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Prince Edward County within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. These areas are either positioned just outside the most intense squall bands or are covered by school boards that typically maintain a higher threshold for cancellations.

A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to a number of additional regions. This includes the Waterloo Region District School Board, Guelph within the Upper Grand District School Board, the southern York Region District School Board weather zone, Haliburton under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Northumberland County within the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Belleville, South Lennox and Addington, and Kingston under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services.

We have also included a slight chance for North Bay within the Near North District School Board and areas covered by the Rainbow District School Board. In these northern regions, the concern shifts more toward extreme cold, though confidence is lower on whether temperatures will reach the threshold required for cold-related cancellations.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the risk of a snow day on Tuesday drops to low or very low. This includes most urban school boards across the Golden Horseshoe, the London area, Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley. These regions are not expected to see significant impacts from the lake effect snow, and travel conditions should remain manageable enough for buses to operate as normal.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Monday’s Blizzard Risk Expected to Result in Widespread School Bus Cancellations in Southern Ontario

/

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/19/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Intense snow squall activity, combined with bitterly cold wind chills and strong, gusty winds, is expected to create dangerous blizzard conditions across snowbelt regions near Lake Huron, Georgian Bay, Lake Ontario and Lake Erie on Monday.

Environment Canada has issued a range of winter weather alerts in response to this setup, including a strongly worded orange-level blizzard warning for areas east of Lake Huron as well as Prince Edward County. In these regions, wind gusts of 70 to 90 km/h combined with snowfall totals of 20 to 40 cm are expected to lead to near-zero visibility and extremely hazardous travel conditions.

With warnings of this severity in place, it is difficult to see how school buses could operate safely in the hardest hit areas. Blizzard conditions of this nature pose a significant safety risk for anyone on the roads, particularly during the afternoon hours when conditions are expected to be at their worst.

Because of this, we have near certainty of a snow day in several regions. A 90 percent chance of school bus cancellations has been assigned to all areas covered by the Bluewater District School Board and the Avon Maitland District School Board, along with Wellington County under the Upper Grand District School Board and Prince Edward County within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. These regions sit directly within the blizzard warning area, where travel is expected to be extremely dangerous.

While not under the blizzard warning itself, we have also assigned a 90 percent chance to the Parry Sound region within the Near North District School Board, as well as Belleville and South Lennox and Addington under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. These areas remain under snow squall warnings, which on their own are typically more than enough to prompt cancellations. Given the expected intensity and duration of the squalls, cancellations here appear highly likely.

A strong likelihood zone, with a 75 percent chance of a snow day, includes Kingston under Tri-Board, Northumberland County within the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, the southern Niagara Region under the District School Board of Niagara, Dufferin County within the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe West weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board, North Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, East Parry Sound within the Near North District School Board, and all areas covered by the Rainbow District School Board. We are leaning toward cancellations in most of these regions, although some fall within boards that tend to be stricter with snow day decisions or sit just outside the most intense squall bands.

The probability drops off fairly quickly once you move outside the core snow squall risk zone, as lake effect impacts will be highly localized. In the toss-up category, where there is a 50 percent chance of a snow day, we have included the northern Niagara Region under the District School Board of Niagara, the Grand Erie District School Board, the Waterloo Region District School Board, Guelph within the Upper Grand District School Board, Clarington under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, the Simcoe Central and Simcoe North weather zones, South Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and North Bay within the Near North District School Board.

A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to Middlesex and Oxford counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, northern Peel Region, the Simcoe South weather zone, Haliburton and North Kawartha Lakes within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Central Hastings, Central Lennox and Addington, and South Frontenac under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. These regions are not currently under active warnings but remain close enough to the snow squall zones that a surprise cancellation cannot be ruled out if Environment Canada expands alert areas by Monday morning.

For the remainder of Southern Ontario, including Deep Southwestern Ontario, much of the Greater Toronto Area and the Ottawa Valley, the chance of a snow day remains low to very low. These regions are not expected to see significant impacts from lake effect snow, and travel conditions should remain manageable enough for school buses to operate as normal.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Snowstorm Aftermath May Cancel School Buses for a Second Day on Friday in Parts of Southern Ontario

/

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/16/bus-cancellations

NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE

Many school buses were cancelled and even some schools were closed across Southern Ontario on Thursday as a high-impact snowstorm delivered widespread snowfall totals of 20 to 40 cm in some areas.

While the storm has begun to wind down heading into the evening, cleanup efforts are only just getting underway. With this amount of snow on the ground, it often takes more than a single night to fully dig out, especially on rural roads and backroads where plowing and treatment can take longer.

Because of this, we are expecting some lingering impacts for the Friday morning commute. The greatest concern lies across Eastern Ontario, where snowfall is only tapering off this evening. These areas will have significantly less time overnight to clear roads ahead of the morning bus run, increasing the likelihood of localized travel issues.

As a result, there is a chance that some school boards may opt for a second straight day of school bus cancellations on Friday. That said, this will be highly dependent on local road conditions and how effective overnight cleanup efforts are in each individual region.

Our highest confidence for additional cancellations is focused on the more rural zones within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. This includes Central Hastings, North and Central Lennox and Addington, and North and Central Frontenac.

These areas rely heavily on rural bus routes that can remain snow-covered for longer periods following major storms. Because of this, we have assigned these regions a 75 percent chance of school bus cancellations on Friday.

Surrounding school boards with a heavy dependence on rural transportation are placed in the 50 percent category, where conditions could genuinely go either way. This includes areas covered by the Upper Canada District School Board, the Renfrew County District School Board, including the Renfrew and Madawaska regions, the remaining zones within Tri-Board, and Peterborough and Northumberland counties under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board. In these regions, the final decision will likely come down to how quickly secondary roads can be cleared overnight.

For the Ottawa region, we have assigned a 25 percent chance. While Ottawa is more urban in nature and primary roads are expected to be in good shape by morning, the sheer volume of snow that fell may still present challenges on residential streets and bus routes. Whether that leads to cancellations remains uncertain.

A 25 percent chance has also been assigned to the Kawartha Lakes and Haliburton regions within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Clarington under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and the northern portion of the Durham District School Board. These areas either lean more rural or did not see the most extreme snowfall totals from this storm. At this time, we are leaning toward buses running, but a few localized cancellations cannot be ruled out.

As you move farther west and north, confidence increases that roads will be in better shape by Friday morning. Snow tapered off earlier in the day in these areas, giving crews more time to clear routes. This includes a large portion of Southwestern Ontario as well as communities surrounding the Golden Horseshoe.

For these regions, we have gone with a widespread low to very low chance of school bus cancellations. No specific school board stands out as being particularly vulnerable, as outcomes will depend almost entirely on local road conditions. Boards covering more rural territory have been assigned closer to a 10 percent chance, while the more urban school boards across the Greater Toronto Area sit closer to 5 percent.

Across northern portions of Central Ontario, including areas covered by the Near North District School Board, the Rainbow District School Board and the Algoma District School Board, we have assigned a low 10 percent chance. Temperatures are expected to be very cold, but not cold enough to typically prompt cancellations on their own. Still, conditions are close enough to that threshold that a few isolated decisions cannot be completely ruled out.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.