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Heavy snow is set to sweep across Southern Ontario on Monday evening, bringing blizzard conditions and widespread blowing snow. The combination of reduced visibility and drifting snow will make travel hazardous in many areas.

Fortunately, in most regions, the snowfall is expected to taper off well before Tuesday morning. Winds will also weaken significantly overnight, leading to improved conditions by the time the morning bus run begins. Because of this, we do not anticipate widespread school bus cancellations across Southern Ontario on Tuesday.

However, the arrival of much colder air overnight will trigger lake-effect snow bands east of Lake Huron and south of Georgian Bay. Environment Canada has issued snow squall warnings and watches for these areas, warning of poor travel conditions that could persist into Tuesday morning.

As a result, school bus cancellations are likely in regions such as Grey, Bruce, Huron, and Perth counties, where snowfall and blowing snow could create treacherous driving conditions. For students in Grey-Bruce, this could mark their seventh consecutive snow day, following cancellations last week and on Monday.

The heaviest snowfall from this system is expected in the Parry Sound and North Bay regions, where totals of up to 20 cm are possible. Given the school board's cautious approach to winter weather, there is a slight chance of cancellations in these areas, even if conditions improve significantly by the morning.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Likely (75–90% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich & Exeter)
Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine and Meaford)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel & Stratford)
Bluewater District School Board (Southampton, Hanover, Owen Sound & Bruce Peninsula)
Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

Near North District School Board (All Zones)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex)
STWDSTS (Wellington & Dufferin)
Simcoe County District School Board (Central & North Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka, Haliburton & North CKL)
Rainbow District School Board

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Monday is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.