'Snow Day' Forecast: Widespread School Bus Cancellations Likely in Southern Ontario's Snowbelt on Tuesday

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Intense snow squalls have been pounding the snowbelt region, including Grey-Bruce and Simcoe County, throughout the day. Heavy snowfall and strong winds have created dangerous whiteout conditions, making travel nearly impossible in some areas.

As a result, plows have been pulled off the roads, and numerous road closures have been reported across Grey-Bruce due to the lack of visibility and the sheer volume of snow accumulating too quickly to clear.

With these intense squalls expected to continue overnight and into Tuesday, it’s hard to imagine school buses being able to operate safely in the hardest-hit areas. A snow day is looking like a near certainty for students across Grey-Bruce and parts of Simcoe County, including the City of Barrie, where snowfall rates remain extreme and drifts continue to build.

Beyond the snowbelt, blowing snow could still cause problems across parts of Southwestern and Central Ontario, extending into portions of the GTA. This may increase the likelihood of school bus cancellations in some areas, though the chances are lower the farther you get from the core snowbelt region.

Many school boards covering urban areas tend to have a higher threshold for cancellations, meaning decisions will likely depend on road conditions early Tuesday morning.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

  • Bluewater District School Board (All Regions)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (West & Central Zone)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)

  • Simcoe County District School Board (South & North Zone)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel)

  • STWDSTS (Dufferin)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

  • Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter & Stratford)

  • STWDSTS (Wellington)

  • Durham District School Board (North)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South CKL)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

  • Waterloo Region District School Board

  • STWDSTS (Guelph)

  • Peel District School Board (North)

  • York Region District School Board

  • Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Clarington)

  • Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka & North CKL)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.