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Heavy snow is currently sweeping across Southern Ontario as an Alberta Clipper makes its way through the region. By Wednesday morning, this system is expected to deliver widespread snowfall totals of up to 15 cm across Eastern, Central, and Southwestern Ontario.

In addition to the snowfall from the system itself, lake effect snow will develop in the wake of the clipper, primarily around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

These squalls are expected to begin during the late morning and continue into Wednesday afternoon. Environment Canada has issued snow squall watches for these regions, which are likely to be upgraded to warnings by early Wednesday.

With heavy snow persisting overnight and the added impact of lake effect snow during the day, it is highly likely that school boards in affected areas will cancel school buses on Wednesday.

Most of the snow from the Alberta Clipper will fall Tuesday evening and taper off overnight for areas outside the snowbelt. However, rural regions may still struggle to clear backroads in time for the morning commute. This was evident on Tuesday when widespread cancellations occurred despite the snow ending hours before the morning bus runs.

Conditions on Wednesday are expected to be similar or even worse in some areas, particularly in Eastern Ontario, where snow will still be falling during the early morning hours.

The greatest likelihood of a "snow day" will be in rural school boards in Eastern Ontario, which are typically more cautious when it comes to heavy snow. Grey, Bruce, and Huron counties are also strong candidates for cancellations, as these areas are still digging out from previous snowfalls and are expected to see additional squalls on Wednesday.

For the rest of Central and Eastern Ontario, school bus cancellations remain uncertain. Decisions will largely depend on local road conditions and how efficiently crews can clear roads, especially critical backroads.

Urban areas like Ottawa and the Greater Toronto Area are not expected to experience enough snow to trigger bus cancellations. However, Ottawa has a slightly higher chance than Toronto due to ongoing snowfall during the early morning hours, which may make the roads more difficult to clear.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)
Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine & Southampton)
Tri-Board (North Hastings, North L&A & North Frontenac)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter, Stratford & Listowel)
Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula, Owen Sound, Meaford & Hanover)
Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)
Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Haliburton)
Tri-Board (Centre Hastings, Central L&A & South Frontenac)
Renfrew County District School Board (Madawaska)
Upper Canada District School Board

Possible (50–75% Chance)

STWDSTS (Wellington & Dufferin)
Simcoe County District School Board (Central & North Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka & CKL)
Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)
Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Northumberland)
Tri-Board (Belleville, Prince Edward County, South L&A & Kingston)
Renfrew County District School Board (Renfrew & Pembroke)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex & Oxford)
Waterloo Region District School Board
Simcoe County District School Board (South Zone)
Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound)
Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Clarington)
Ottawa-Carleton District School Board

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

Thames Valley District School Board (London & Elgin)
Halton District School Board (North)
Peel District School Board (North)
York Region District School Board
Durham District School Board (North)
Near North District School Board (North Bay)
Rainbow District School Board
Algoma District School Board

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.