Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Tuesday, December 2, 2025
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Localized, intense snow squalls are expected to persist off the northern and northwestern shoreline of Georgian Bay overnight and into Tuesday morning. Environment Canada has issued snow squall warnings for the Parry Sound region, noting the potential for 20 to 40 cm of snowfall in the most intense bands.
This level of snowfall will very likely lead to bus cancellations in the hardest hit areas, which fall primarily under the Near North District School Board. We have assigned a 90 percent chance for the Parry Sound region, a 75 percent chance for East Parry Sound and a 50 percent chance for North Bay, where the impact from the squalls is expected to be more variable for those further inland.
The Bruce Peninsula, under the Bluewater District School Board, may also be affected by this lake effect activity. However, confidence is lower here, so we have gone with a 50 percent chance. Farther north, the Rainbow District School Board and the Algoma District School Board are assigned a 25 percent chance, with Manitoulin Island being the most likely area to see cancellations. The Greater Sudbury region is much less likely to reach cancellation thresholds.
In addition to the lake effect snow, a separate system is expected to track across the Northeastern United States on Tuesday. Its northern edge may bring periods of light to moderate snowfall to areas along Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, extending into Eastern Ontario during the morning hours. Accumulation will be limited, generally 4 to 8 cm closest to the U.S. border, tapering off to the northwest.
Normally, this level of snowfall would not meet the threshold for cancellations in most school boards. However, because it coincides with the morning commute, we have assigned a 5 percent chance for regions along the Lake Erie shoreline.
For Eastern Ontario, we have given a 10 percent chance to the southern portion of Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. This region tends to be more sensitive to weather conditions, and if Environment Canada were to issue any winter-related advisories, they often cancel based on that guidance. It is still a long shot, but as we saw Monday morning, this area can react quickly to even minor impacts. Other rural school boards in Eastern Ontario have a 5% chance of a snow day.
For the rest of Southern Ontario, we are not expecting any significant snow or hazardous conditions that would lead to cancellations on Tuesday.
Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.
It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.
