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Scattered lake effect snow continues this evening east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, with bands still producing localized bursts of heavier snow and reduced visibility in traditional snowbelt communities. The good news is that most of this activity is expected to weaken and shift offshore well before the Thursday morning commute.

For the majority of Southern Ontario, impacts to school transportation should be minimal by daybreak. However, given the nature of lake effect snow, which can be highly localized and stubborn, we can’t completely rule out a few surprise cancellations where bands linger a little longer than expected.

If we do see any cancellations on Thursday, the most likely location would be the Bruce Peninsula under the Bluewater District School Board. There is still the potential for a narrow band of snow squall activity to persist into the mid-morning hours in that area. That said, confidence in the exact placement and intensity of those bands is fairly low. Because of that uncertainty, we’ve assigned a 25 percent chance of bus cancellations for the Bruce Peninsula under BWDSB.

Elsewhere east of Lake Huron, including the remainder of BWDSB, along with nearby rural boards across Central Ontario, cancellations are very unlikely but not completely off the table. This includes areas under the Avon Maitland District School Board, the Simcoe County District School Board, the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and the Near North District School Board, where light residual snow or drifting could leave a few untreated backroads slick early in the morning.

For these regions, we’ve gone with a 5 to 10 percent chance to account for the possibility of isolated, localized decisions based purely on road conditions rather than active weather. These would be true surprise cancellations and would depend entirely on how conditions look at the time decisions are made. In other words, don’t count on it.

Outside of the snowbelt and adjacent rural areas, no significant winter weather is expected during the school day on Thursday. Conditions across the Golden Horseshoe, Deep Southwestern Ontario, and Eastern Ontario should be quiet and manageable.

As a result, all other regions across Southern Ontario have been given a less than 5 percent chance of a snow day on Thursday. At this point, a regular school day is expected for nearly everyone, so yes, that means do your homework!

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.