Winter Storm! Snow for Vancouver, As Much as 2 Feet! Over Higher Terrains and Mountains

Issued: November.11,2020 @ 5 PM

Updated: November.11, 2020 @ 5 PM

Forecaster: James Follette

Good Afternoon! We have a lot to talk about in today’s forecast! Although for many areas around the province it’s a nice sunny but cold day! We also have some showers that came through Victoria and Vancouver over the last few hours, The RGEM FutureCAST model has done a really good job in forecasting that.

Last night, I was leaning more on the NAM and ECMWF model, but now that I see the showers came about as the RGEM and GEM model forecast.

This doesn’t really change much in the forecast for the lashing winter weather we are about to get!!

A very strong and moisten storm will begin to arrive very late tonight into the day Thursday and then another storm comes in on Friday through Saturday morning.

So there are 2 separate storms and both of them will deliver something different to some parts along with Vancouver.

Storm 1: Late tonight into Thursday, Heavy snow at times for Inland Vancouver and Metro, Downtown Vancouver could even see a few slushy inches! But head far inland towards the North district of Vancouver and Port Moody to Coquitlam that is where you could see several inches of snow!

Along with the snow, is the heavy rain that would lash the coastal areas with as much as 50 to 75 mm of rain by the time that Saturday morning rolls around.

Winds will not be too strong as they will mainly stay south, but Gusts to 40-60 km/h is very likely.

Storm 2: Late Thursday night into Saturday morning, Heavy snow will continue to fall in the very high elevations and far inland. But snow will become rain over much of the entire Vancouver area, Snow in the mountains will continue to pile up, seeing as much as 2-3 feet! in lower elevations inland, up to 15-30cm is expected! The Interior could see another 5-15cm.

Rainfall will continue to fall on the coast, and become a bit heavier.

Winds will be stronger in this storm, gusting up to 80 km/h in Vancouver and Victoria and along the coast. Inland can see gusts up to 70 km/h.

So with all this rain, snow & wind, it is very likely we can see power outages.

Looking at the FutureCAST timing this out over the next 3-4 days. This is the RGEM model and it’s doing a pretty good job so far in today’s forecast!

So Nice today, other than some flurries far inland and a few showers in Victoria and Vancouver. The heavy rain and snow arrive in the early hours of the morning so expect snow for inland Vancouver, a mix to mostly rain in the Metro of Vancouver and along the coast, Victoria will stay all rain for both systems.

The next system is a bit stronger and will sink south of Victoria, this will bring wind-driven rain for much of Vancouver and along the coasts & islands. But snow at times heavy will continue to fall for far inland areas and mountainous terrain.

By Saturday morning we finally begin to clear up a little.

Here is the models’ projection on snowfall over the next 3 days into Saturday, notice the bright pink-purple like colors? that is amounts of over 2-3 feet! This will fall over the higher terrains and mountainous areas. But Vancouver Inland… 5 to 15 cm over the North District of Vancouver, a few inches for the Metro and as head far north of Vancouver District, up to 30cm can fall! Vancouver Island Inland areas could see as much as 25 to 30cm of snow, coastal areas near the water will see much less with amounts of up to 5cm.

for the rest of the province, here is what you can expect in possible snowfall.

Interior can see as much as 15cm, possibly more can not be ruled out! Further north more to the east, you will see far less snow, as the system will ne further away from you, Amounts of a few cm’s.

Here is what you can expect in my snowfall forecast!

Vancouver Island: 10-20cm with locally up to 25cm in the inland areas.

Inland Vancouver, Whistler, and Squamish to Hope you will see the highest amounts! depending on where you are, the higher up you are in the elevations the more snow you will get and those areas will see up to 50cm and lower elevations could see just 25cm.

For the Interior and much of mainland BC, look for about 5 to 10cm, however, could be some local amounts of up to 15cm.

Then we get to the Rockies into AB border, expect upwards of 30cm with local amounts near 40cm.

With the 2 combined storms, there is going to be a lot of precipitation water! now this includes all types of precipitation including snow! The areas that will see rain, such as along the coasts and in Vancouver, Vancouver Island Coastal areas. a good 50 to 75 mm of rain will likely fall by Saturday morning.

For rest of BC, look at a good 10-30 mm of water in snow form! and with super cold temperatures far north and over mountains and high elevations that will produce a very high snow ratio and that is why the amounts are higher in those areas. The colder it is, the more snow will fall!

Here is my thoughts on the rainfall amounts through Saturday, A wide swath of a good 30-50mm with locally up to 70mm! And honestly, with the models being in a good agreement on showing 50 or more, I may tick that up in tonight’s forecast from 30-50 to 50-75mm. Either way, expect a flooding rain! You are wanting to make sure to unclog your storm drains so that the water call flow down into the sewer and not get clogged and create street flooding.

So for today, expect a chance of flurries or rain showers as that has been the case this afternoon from Squamish to Vancouver and for the South-East parts of the province.

Then we get into Thursday!, There is that Low pressure just near Vancouver Island. A good soaking rain much of the coast, Very heavy snow inland and it will also be breezy at times with gusts up to 40 or 50 km/h. and from Prince George to the Okanagan looking at some Flurries.

Then we have storm #2 for Friday! Low pressure over Vancouver island will sink south and curve up the coast. A nasty snow storm for Vancouver Island, and many parts of the coast, with exception of near Vancouver will you will be all rain!

Parts of the Interior from Kamloops to Hope, can look at a steady snowfall with blowing snow and potential blizzard conditions at times.

Strong winds on the coasts will gusts upwards of 60-80 km/h and that will create some blizzard conditions.

For the rest of today, expect sun and clouds for much of everyone, except some flurries in Kelowna and even some showers in Vancouver and Victoria late this afternoon and evening. Storm arrives in Vancouver to Victoria later overnight with a mix bag in Vancouver and rain in Victoria. Highs of 4-7 degrees, and lows tonight dipping down to -5 in Kamloops to as warm as +3 in Victoria.

Here in the city, expect gorgeous sunshine today, however again there is that shower chance in the afternoon hours. highs on the chilly side! only 3-6 degrees. South-West winds on the light side at only 5-10 km/h.

Today, Sunny & cold with a chance of showers late in the day, high of 6. a slight chance of rain-snow mix overnight tonight with lows dipping down near the freezing mark at 1 degrees.

Here is your 7-day forecast, We are nice today, slightly breezy and cool with possible showers on the coast. high of 7. Colder tomorrow with a winter storm on our steps, snow inland, rain/mix on the coast. cold! highs only around 5 degrees!

Storm# 2 arrives on Friday, this time it is all rain and gusty winds to 80 km/h. That rain byway will be very heavy at times and some flooding is likely. milder at 7! lows of 4.

We continue to warm up on Saturday with lots of clouds but the precipitation stays far to the North sand South of us to not give us a bother. Sunday is also dry and slightly cool at 7. So your weekend is dry and cool but not a stormy one like Thursday & Friday so the weekend will be a great time to get out.

And getting out on the weekend will be a great idea because look what is coming for the start of the new week! YUP! another storm, this one though is all rain, lot’s of it! more flooding problems, strong winds. But the best part is that it is not a very cold rain, in fact, the temperatures will rise into the low 10’s!

I’ll have a better update on the 2 storms, and your latest updated forecast! coming up later tonight!

Have a safe Remembrance day, Remember to wash your hands, keep 6ft apart, and wear a mask! The more people that do this, the more quickly we can go back to normal!

Be safe, Be well, Buh-Bye!

Arctic Blast To Freeze The Province With Cold, Snow, Rain & Wind

Updated: Saturday, October 18th, 2020 @ 5:45 AM

Valid: Friday, October 17th, 2020 @ 11 PM

Forecaster: James Follette

A large trough of low pressure that is bringing relentless bitter cold air to much of Northern British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Northern Ontario. Will continue to deepen today as it digs even further south over the coming days which will allow for more cold air to funnel in.

The first snow of the season arrived today for many parts of the province, including the Interior. Higher elevations could pick up as much as 10cm by Midnight Sunday.

Once the snow stops, there will be a series of low pressures that will spread snow and rain showers at times for a few days, then by Thursday, we’ll see a big blast of cold air with highs struggling to hit the freezing mark for many areas, including the coast of Vancouver.

A storm system will bring a messy mix bag of weather to the province on Friday with potential for heavy snow inland, mixed bag, and heavy rain on the coast, and very strong winds.

It could be near Halloween by the time that we will see things warm up back to seasonal again, which is around 13*C for this time of year.

The jet stream is what divides cold and warm air and steers the storms and systems. A large High to the south of our province and a storm system off our coast is helping in keeping us in the middle (for now) notice how by Tomorrow and through Wednesday that the jet flattens? that means much colder air and with a storm off the coast, we are looking at more snow on the way, and rain on the coast. Either way though, we will be seeing some very bitter cold air through the week and possibly to start next week as well!

One of the forecast model tools we use in forecasting and especially in winter forecasting is the 500mb Heights or also known as the 1000-500mb Thickness level. This will give us an idea of what air mass will be around, values of 522 and below indicate a polar air mass, this is where you will get the coldest temperatures and likely snow, 534-540 is known as the rain/snow line. normally 534 would be a mix of rain or snow or just snow and 540 would be a mix of rain and snow or just rain, anything above 540 is usually rain. Then there is 570 and above, that is your Tropical airmass, the hot, humid & sticky air mass from the south.

We’ll be right on that rain/snow line for a good while here in the Interior. Northern parts of the province will see the colder airmass values, and warmer along the coast. The extreme cold is currently over Alberta.

By mid-week, the jet stream flattens and the colder air with height values closer to 528 will bring a chance of snow again to the Interior and as far south as Vancouver West.

Temperatures will be dropping over the next several days, with the coldest air hitting at the end of the week. Temperatures over Northern parts of the province will see temperatures fall to as low as -25*C and highs struggling to get to -5. As for the Interior, Central, and South, temperatures will plummet into the low to mid 5’s for highs with on/off snow and rain showers and wake up to temperatures of near or slightly below the freezing mark. Lower elevations in the city centres will be warmest and likely not see any snow.

For coastal areas, temperatures over the next few days will hover neat 10 degrees than by late week, we will see temperatures drop sharply to the low 5’s.

Overall, the story is that we will see temperatures be below normal by as much as 5 to 10 degrees much of this week!

The 24-hour Temperature change from yesterday will start to fall about near 4 degrees cooler, once we get into Monday-Tuesday, we’ll see 24-hour temperature changes by as much as 20 to 30 degrees colder!

Here’s the Short term forecast, looking at the FutureCAST, we are looking at the RGEM model here and we can see snow exiting this afternoon, as High pressure lingers a little keeping the Northern parts of our province dry. Then as a large High pressure settles over North Eastern parts of the province, the North East winds will shift in colder air to much of the province with exception to the coast, we’ll see scattered showers and snow flurries tonight and again tomorrow. Rain showers on the Vancouver coast.

It’s Thursday into Friday when the big changes happen, still early on those details, but could be looking at a messy size storm, and some record frigid cold air for the Okanagan deserts, especially in northern parts of province.

How much snowfall can we expect? Through Tonight, a widespread 5 to 10cm is expected for mostly higher terrains, lower terrains will see less or just rain, some isolated areas will see only a few cms. further north will see up to 2cm, and the Southeast sections of the province can see as much as 20cm in the higher elevations!

As we fast forward the snowfall totals into Wednesday, we can see additional amounts of snow for Northern parts of the province with up to 20cm possible by end of Wednesday.

Let’s take a look now at your forecast for Tonight!

Greater Vancouver area looking at Rain once again tonight, lows still mild! around 7 degrees. Rain/snow mix for Kamloops, except rain in the city, to snow in the higher elevations, could pick up as much as 10cm! Lows down to -1 tonight, near 0 in the city.

Prince George is beautiful with a few clouds, cold! -7 degrees and +2 in Kelowna with snow snow flurries!

Here is a look now at your Vancouver 7 day forecast!

Looking at rain ending later this morning or noon hour, then rather mostly cloudy skies, some peaks of sunshine. highs only around 10 today, a chance of showers tomorrow and a tad milder! around 12 degrees, then we dry it out for Tuesday through Thursday as high pressure, a very large one! lot’s of dry air with this and the models are predicting pressure as high as 1050mb! If you have a barometer at home, the 1050mb is the borderline of entering into the Very dry section. Those Northeast winds from the high pressure will send down cooler air again with temperatures dropping to near 10, 11 on Friday with rain and rain/snow mix, except snow in Vancouver West. and wet snow or mix for Saturday and a high of ONLY 4 degrees!

For Kamloops and the Thompson river areas and Interior, we are looking at a very miserable and cold, wintry like forecast! Looking at snow ending this morning in the high elevations, rain clearing in the lower elevations. high of 4 today! Showers at times tomorrow and warmer at 8, but still below our normal of 12! Tuesday is when it goes down hill! chance of flurries and 5, Wednesday, a chance of flurries and 4, cloudy and 2 on Thursday, Snow, could be a lot! on Friday with highs near freezing, -9 on Friday morning! very cold on Saturday and a chance of flurries or snow… highs only at -4! and lows near -10.

There could be relief though by the last week of October heading into Halloween!