Strongest Solar Storm in Years Could Spark Off Northern Lights Across Canada on Friday Night

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ESTIMATED AURORA VIEWLINE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT (SOURCE: SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER)

While the weather on Earth has been fairly quiet over the past week across Canada, the same can't be said for the weather in space, as the sun has been quite active. A cluster of sunspots has grown in recent days, leading to several strong solar flares directed towards Earth.

These solar flares are currently heading toward Earth and are forecasted to cause a severe solar storm. This solar storm could result in the Aurora Borealis being visible across Canada on Friday night, including in more southern latitudes that don't regularly experience the light show.

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This main cluster is so large that it’s comparable in size to the one that eventually led to the strongest solar storm in history, known as the ‘Carrington Event’ in 1859. It’s also visible to the naked eye (while wearing eclipse glasses) without magnification!

However, as spaceweather.com mentions; “CMEs currently en route to Earth will not cause a new Carrington Event; they are puny compared to the CMEs of 1859. Nevertheless, it would be wise to keep an eye on this growing active region while Earth is in its strike zone.”

This sunspot activity over the last few days has led to several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) directed toward Earth, expected to lead to a severe solar storm over the weekend. Current indications suggest that the CMEs will arrive sometime late Friday, with solar storm conditions continuing throughout the overnight into pre-dawn on Saturday.

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Based on the latest data, the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a rare G4 (severe) Geomagnetic Watch for Friday night. They are currently forecasting a Kp index of 8.33 at the height of the event around midnight, which is quite high considering the scale only goes to 9!

Generally, the Kp index needs to be around 5 for the northern lights to be visible in the more northern latitudes of Canada, including the Prairies, Northern Ontario, and Quebec. While those further south in Southern Ontario require a Kp index of 6-7 for the aurora to be visible.

With a Kp index of 8.33, this will be more than sufficient and could even lead to the aurora being visible overhead instead of just along the horizon, which is what those in the southern latitudes typically experience.

Keep in mind, that this is just a rough projection, and predicting the arrival of CMEs isn't a perfect science, so it may arrive earlier or later, which would affect the potential visibility of the northern lights. It’s a good idea to be prepared for the light show, but know that it may change by Friday night once the solar storm begins.

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While we have had multiple strong (G3) and severe (G4) solar storms in recent years, this is the first time that the SWPC has issued a G4 watch since 2005. At least five CMEs are currently directed toward Earth, which, as the SWPC mentions, is a very unusual occurrence.

The last severe solar storm occurred a few months ago in March. However, it arrived earlier than expected, with the northern lights being visible in lower latitudes across Europe. However, it fizzled out before nightfall in North America, ruining the chance for a show across Canada.

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IMAGE FROM WeatherBell

Having clear skies will be critical for catching the show on Friday night, and the current forecast is looking quite good for much of Canada for Friday night.

Weather Conditions by Province for Friday Night:

  • Newfoundland: Some cloudy conditions on the east end towards St. Johns with clear skies expected through the western part of the island.

  • Maritimes: Mostly cloudy across Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Southern New Brunswick. Clear skies further north through Central New Brunswick, however, may see some building cloud cover along the Quebec border.

  • Quebec: Mostly clear across the province, however, there might be some patches of clouds closer to the border with Ontario into Northern Quebec.

  • Southern Ontario: Clear skies for Southwestern Ontario and most of the Golden Horseshoe. Lingering clouds may partially obscure the show in parts of Central and Eastern Ontario, although models do indicate that there will be breaks in the cloud cover.

  • Northern Ontario: Poor viewing conditions are expected through Northeastern Ontario as clouds will be present for much of the night. Conditions will improve further to the west where clearer skies are expected along the Manitoba border.

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IMAGE FROM WeatherBell

  • Manitoba: Clear skies for the southern part of the province with increasing cloudiness further to the north across the Interlake region and into Northern Manitoba.

  • Saskatchewan: Some cloudy patches across the central part of the province and some thicker clouds to the north. Mostly clear for Southern Saskatchewan.

  • Alberta: Mostly clear with some thin cloud cover possible in the southern portion of the province.

  • British Columbia: Mostly clear.

Pinpointing the optimal time to witness the show is a challenge, dependent on the solar storm's evolution. Current estimates suggest the peak conditions sometime Friday and peaking around midnight. It’s important to stay updated with the latest information to know when the show has started and if there are any changes in the timeframe.

For the best chance at catching the northern lights, be sure to choose a location away from urban centers, where light pollution could dim the brilliance of the Northern Lights.

Major Solar Storm Expected to Lead to a Northern Lights ‘Outbreak’ Across Canada on Thursday Night

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Anticipation is building as a substantial solar flare, unleashed from the sun earlier this week, sets the stage for multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) expected to reach Earth starting today. 

The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) foresees a G3 (strong) geometric storm tonight, with a forecasted Kp index of 7, promising a spectacular display of the northern lights across much of Canada.

Initial signs point to this being one of the most potent solar storms this year, potentially rivalling recent dazzling shows from the last few months. 

IMAGE FROM Pivotal Weather

However, some parts of Canada including Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Southern Ontario and British Columbia could have their view obstructed by clouds tonight. There could be some breaks in the clouds so there is still hope! Despite occasional breaks, a bit more effort may be needed to catch the spectacle in those areas.

The Prairies and Northern Ontario stands in a better position, with clouds posing less of a threat. Although parts of Manitoba and Alberta could have still be dealing with scattered clouds.

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Pinpointing the optimal time to witness the show is a challenge, dependent on the solar storm's evolution. Current estimates suggest the peak conditions late tonight into early Friday morning. However, flexibility is key, as the timing may shift, influenced by cloud cover. Visibility is anticipated to commence around 8-9 PM, reaching its peak between 12-4 AM.

For an enhanced viewing experience, seek out locations away from urban centers, where light pollution could dim the brilliance of the Northern Lights.

Introducing Instant Weather Pro!

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Instant Weather Pro beta test has finally arrived! Woohoo!

Subscribe at InstantWeatherPro.com

You've been asking us during our livestreams for the past two years “When can we finally try IW Pro?!” and we're excited to announce that day has finally arrived!

We're launching a limited beta test of our premium tier. Normally $129/year but we’ve put it on sale for those who subscribe during the beta test at $99/year + tax (which is roughly $8.25 + tax per month).

We are emailing instructions on how to access IW Pro on a first come, first serve basis so please be patient after you subscribe to receive instructions from our team via email.

Thank you so much and we can’t wait to continue adding more awesome features and improving IW Pro!

Sincerely,

- Adam, Teresa & the IW team

P.S. Some of you were asking if we have a PayPal option and if you'd prefer that, email us at help@InstantWeather.ca and we’ll send you a link. Thanks so much!

Be on the Alert for Possible Aurora this Halloween Weekend 2021

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Credit: Tom Kroeker

This weekend we could see auroras grace the night sky as a result of a strong X1 solar flare on October 28th.

At 2021 Oct 29 1529 UTC the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center issued a “WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted”. A strong G3 geomagnetic storm is possible and places as far south as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon may see aurora (see here for the latest alert).

There is uncertainty in when we can expect the CME to arrive. The CME could arrive Saturday night (October 30th) but there are indications that it may arrive earlier too. You might want to take a look early Saturday morning before sunrise as well as Saturday night if the skies are clear and you are awake.

Just as with regular weather here on earth you can have all the ingredients but severe weather does not occur. We are hopeful that this time all the ingredients will come together as well as clear skies.

The level of geomagnetic activity and where you are located are important factors in determining whether or not you may be able to see aurora. The further south you are the stronger the geomagnetic activity needs to be. As well, weather and light pollution will also affect your ability to see aurora. More tips for viewing aurora can be found at the NOAA site.

Clear Dark Sky has forecasts for astronomers for cloud cover that you might find useful.

The current UTC time (which is useful for the information below):

Here are some forecasts that will help:

  • The OVATION Auroral Forecast from NOAA below shows probability of visible aurora at the current time. Be sure to reload if the image is not current. Day and night (dark) are indicated as well on the map to help you determine if the time is current. Ideally you would like to be in a yellow, orange or red area.

Aurora Oval
Current Conditions from Space Weather Canada

Below shows the past and future predicted timeline for geomagnetic activity from Space Weather Canada. Orange and red indicate stormier activity. See the map above for how the regions are defined (polar cap, auroral, subauroral).

We will update this page as new information becomes available.

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ON THIS DAY: Canada's Only Confirmed F5 Tornado - Elie, Manitoba - June 22, 2007

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On June 22, 2007, Canada’s only F5 rated tornado destroyed parts of Elie, Manitoba. Canada adopted the Enhanced Fujita scale in 2013 so this will be the only F5 rated tornado in our history. With wind speeds in excess of 420 km/h, it caused $39 million dollars ($48 million in 2020 dollars) of damage destroying several houses, vehicles, and the town’s flour mill.

The tornado was narrow, given its strength, reaching a width of only 300 metres. It was on the ground for roughly 40 min and travelled about 6 km. The tornado winded its way through part of the town as can be seen in the figure below from Mccarthy, Patrick & Carlsen, Dave & Slipec, Jim. (2008). Elie, Manitoba, Canada, June 22, 2007: Canada's first F5 tornado. Houses were torn completely off of their foundations and a Chrysler Fifth Avenue was reportedly tossed onto a neighbour’s roof.

elietrack.png

Fortunately, no was killed and there were no seriously injuries. According to ECCC “Many residents were out of town attending a high school graduation ceremony, and those who were home knew what to do, seeking shelter in basements and placing mattresses over their head.”

Below are two videos from Justin Hobson’s channel who witnessed this historic event. The first one was taken by Justin and the second by the residents of Elie:

Events like this remind us that we must stay alert when there is severe weather in our region and, of course, have a plan! Also, we love your reports but please only take videos or photos if it safe to do so!

References and more information:

Canada’s First F5 Tornado, ECCC

2007 Elie, Manitoba tornado, Wikipedia

10 years later, Canada’s only F5 tornado remains in a class of its own, Washington Post

BREAKING: At Least One Death Reported After Tornado Causes Significant Damage in Montréal Suburb

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Je vien de voir une tornade à mascouche souffler une maison....j'espère que les gens sont ok!

Posted by Nicolas Dubreuil on Monday, June 21, 2021

Video of tornado in Mascouche, Québec (EXPLICIT LANGUAGE WARNING)

A devastating story is unfolding just outside Montréal, Québec as what appears to be a very strong tornado has torn through the community of Mascouche (around 40km north of Montréal) during the afternoon hours on Monday. Based on radar data and local reports, it appears the tornado touched down around 3:30 PM ET and stayed on the ground for several minutes as it tracked through residential areas and resulted in severe structural damage to several houses.

No severe thunderstorm or tornado warning was issued by Environment Canada before the tornado touched down in Mascouche. Only a severe thunderstorm watch was in effect at the time. A tornado warning was only issued at 4:50 PM ET for the cluster of storms outside Québec City over an hour after the initial touchdown. All tornado warnings have since ended as of 7:00 PM ET.

According to CBC News, at least one person from Mascouche has died as a result of the tornado. There are currently no other reports of fatalities or injuries related to this event although it’s still very preliminary.

Shortly after the event, reports of damage flooded social media showing debris spread throughout a neighbourhood and some structural damage including what appears to be a house under construction that was torn apart.

Posted by Marco Paquette on Monday, June 21, 2021

We’ll be updating the article with more details as we receive any further information and our thoughts and condolences are with those who were affected by today’s storms.

Be on the Alert for Possible Aurora Saturday Night (April 24/25 2021)

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Credit: Tom Kroeker

Credit: Tom Kroeker

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a alert saying G1 and G2 geomagnetic storms are likely from the Cornal Mass Ejection (CME) that left the sun on April 22. Based on the sudden change in solar wind speed at April 24th at 2307 UT the CME has arrived (more details from spaceweather.com).

Places as far south as the northern states could potentially see aurora Saturday night.

The two main factors on whether or not you can see aurora on any given night are the level of geomagnetic activity and where you are located. Of course weather and light pollution will also affect your ability to see aurora. More tips for viewing aurora can be found at the NOAA site.

The current UTC time:

Here are some forecasts that will help:

  • The OVATION Auroral Forecast from NOAA below shows probability of visible aurora at the current time. Be sure to reload if the image is not current. Day and night (dark) are indicated as well on the map to help you determine if the time is current.

Aurora Oval
Current Conditions from Space Weather Canada

The Space Weather Gallery has some stunning photos and particularly these “Pinkest of all pinks (Aurora)” photos from Markus Varik in Norway. Pink auroras are rare and occur when particles reach lower levels of the Earth’s atmosphere. See spaceweather.com for further information.

We will update this page as new information becomes available.

Geminid Meteor Shower Peaks December 13/14 and We Could See More Fireballs

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Update: If it is cloudy you can watch the shower on Facebook as Nasa Meteor Watch will be going live on Monday December 14 at 9:00pm EST.

The Geminid meteor shower (Dec 4 to Dec 17) is considered to be one the best annual showers. This shower is the result of debris from an asteroid or extinct comet (3200 Phaethon) entering the atmosphere.

The best night to observe this shower is on the night of Dec 13/14 when it peaks (01:00 UT) . You can start watching for meteors in the early evening of Dec 13 and continue watching for several hours. If you are in a dark location you could see on average one meteor per minute. This year the light of the moon will not outshine some of the fainter meteors as moon will be in its new phase.

One good way to view meteors is to just look up and watch the sky in a dark open place unobstructed by trees or buildings. You may catch some meteors out of the corner of your eye as it is impossible to be looking everywhere at once. As well as meteors from a specific shower (that will appear to radiate from the same place called a radiant) there are also sporadic meteors at the rate of a few per hour. Meteor showers are typically named for the constellation where this radiant is located. You can use sky charts that are available online or one of the many apps available to help you find the meteor shower’s radiant. Look for the constellation Gemini for this shower.

NASA's All-sky Fireball Network camera’s have already picked up 18 fireballs as of December 10 (update: 89 as of December 13) over the US from this shower. Earlier this month some people were lucky enough to spot one or more of the spectacular fireballs in Ontario. It was just coincidental timing for at least two (update: three) of those fireballs as analysis of the orbits of two (update: three) of those bright fireballs indicate that they were not Geminid meteors.

Update: A fourth bright fireball was seen in Southern Ontario this month on Thursday Dec 10 at 7:26 EST. Using observations from the University of Western Ontario's Southern Ontario Meteor Network in conjuction with NASA’s All-sky Fireball observations they estimate that the object weighed about 1 kg and had a diameter of 10 cm. This asteroid fragment was travelling at a speed of 116,000 kilometers per hour. See this NASA Meteor Watch post for pictures and more details including a map of the trajectory. The trajectory starts just west of London and ends near Port Lambton just on the other side of the border.

Credit: NASA All-sky Fireball Network

Credit: NASA All-sky Fireball Network

If you happen to get lucky and catch a fireball it won’t matter how dark the sky is as they light up the entire sky for a few seconds as they streak across it. A fireball is defined as a bright meteor that has survived its entry through the earth’s atmosphere and scientists are very interested in locating meteorites from it. As well as human observations many fireballs have been caught on dash cams and security cameras. Some fireballs also produce a sonic boom a second or two after they pass overhead. The colour of a fireball is an important observation as it is dependent on the chemical composition of the meteor. You could even see an especially bright one during the day like the one on Dec 2, 2020.

If you spot a fireball you can report it to the American Meteor Society or the International Meteor Organization. NASA has a database of fireballs if you are curious about a previous fireball.

References and further reading:

American Meteor Society
AMS Meteor Shower Calendar
International Meteor Organization
NASA’s All Sky Fireball Network
NASA’s Space Place is a great place to explore science with your kids

Be on the Alert for Aurora Wednesday and Thursday

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Credit: Tom Kroeker

Credit: Tom Kroeker

UPDATE: The CME reached the earth at 01:30 UT on Dec 10 but it unfortunately did not result in the predicted geomagnetic storm. A new solar cycle has just begun which means that there will likely be many CMEs in future months and more chances to see auroras.

The current UTC time:

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a watch for a Geomagnetic Storm Category G3. This means that places as far south as Oregon could see aurora tonight and tomorrow night. Excerpt from the alert issued on 2020 Dec 08 1506 UTC

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Dec 09:  G1 (Minor)   Dec 10:  G3 (Strong)   Dec 11:  G2 (Moderate)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

UPDATE: The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from the sun arrived at approximately 1:30UT. Sometimes first contact with the CME doesn’t trigger a geomagnetic storm but a strong one develops hours later.

Here is the updated forecast from NOAA. UT is Universal Time in the forecast below. 

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2020 Dec 10 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 10-Dec 12 2020 is 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 10-Dec 12 2020

            Dec 10     Dec 11     Dec 12
00-03UT        4          5 (G1)     2     
03-06UT        3          6 (G2)     2     
06-09UT        1          4          2     
09-12UT        1          4          2     
12-15UT        3          3          2     
15-18UT        4          3          2     
18-21UT        5 (G1)     3          2     
21-00UT        7 (G3)     3          2     

Rationale: G3 (Strong) and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is
possible 10 and 11 Dec respectively due to the possible still inbound
magnetic cloud from the 07 Dec CME.

The two main factors on whether or not you can see aurora on any given night are the level of geomagnetic activity and where you are located. Of course weather and light pollution will also affect your ability to see aurora. More tips for viewing aurora can be found at the NOAA site.

Here are some forecasts that will help:

  • The OVATION Auroral Forecast from NOAA below shows probability of visible aurora at the current time. Be sure to reload if the image is not current. Day and night (dark) are indicated as well on the map to help you determine if the time is current.

Aurora Oval
Current Conditions from Space Weather Canada

The Space Weather Gallery has some stunning photos and particularly these “Pinkest of all pinks (Aurora)” photos from Markus Varik in Norway. Pink auroras are rare and occur when particles reach lower levels of the Earth’s atmosphere. See spaceweather.com for further information.

We will update this page as new information becomes available.

Be on the Alert for Aurora Sunday and Monday Nights

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aurora_borealis_northern_lights_sky_night_landscape_nature_dark_colorful-1058133.jpg

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a watch for a Geomagnetic Storm Category G2. This means that places as far south as New York could see aurora on Sunday and Monday nights. Excerpt from the alert issued on 2020 Sep 27 2045 UTC:

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 28:  G2 (Moderate)   Sep 29:  G2 (Moderate)   Sep 30:  G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

UPDATE: The latest watch as of

Issue Time: 2020 Sep 29 1556 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 29:  G1 (Minor)   Sep 30:  G1 (Minor)   Oct 01:  None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment: Decreasing max threshold potential from G2 to G1 to be consistent with activity as the storm progresses and wanes

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

The two main factors on whether or not you can see aurora on any given night are the level of geomagnetic activity and where you are located. Of course weather and light pollution will also affect your ability to see aurora. More tips for viewing aurora can be found at the NOAA site.

Here are some forecasts that will help:

  • The OVATION Auroral Forecast from NOAA below shows probability of visible aurora at the current time. Be sure to reload if the image is not current. Day and night (dark) are indicated as well on the map to help you determine if the time is current.

Aurora Oval
Current Conditions from Space Weather Canada

The Space Weather Gallery has some stunning photos and particularly these “Pinkest of all pinks (Aurora)” photos from Markus Varik in Norway. Pink auroras are rare and occur when particles reach lower levels of the Earth’s atmosphere. See spaceweather.com for further information.

We will update this page as new information becomes available.