Strongest Solar Storm in Years Could Spark Off Northern Lights Across Canada on Friday Night

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ESTIMATED AURORA VIEWLINE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT (SOURCE: SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER)

While the weather on Earth has been fairly quiet over the past week across Canada, the same can't be said for the weather in space, as the sun has been quite active. A cluster of sunspots has grown in recent days, leading to several strong solar flares directed towards Earth.

These solar flares are currently heading toward Earth and are forecasted to cause a severe solar storm. This solar storm could result in the Aurora Borealis being visible across Canada on Friday night, including in more southern latitudes that don't regularly experience the light show.

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This main cluster is so large that it’s comparable in size to the one that eventually led to the strongest solar storm in history, known as the ‘Carrington Event’ in 1859. It’s also visible to the naked eye (while wearing eclipse glasses) without magnification!

However, as spaceweather.com mentions; “CMEs currently en route to Earth will not cause a new Carrington Event; they are puny compared to the CMEs of 1859. Nevertheless, it would be wise to keep an eye on this growing active region while Earth is in its strike zone.”

This sunspot activity over the last few days has led to several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) directed toward Earth, expected to lead to a severe solar storm over the weekend. Current indications suggest that the CMEs will arrive sometime late Friday, with solar storm conditions continuing throughout the overnight into pre-dawn on Saturday.

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Based on the latest data, the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a rare G4 (severe) Geomagnetic Watch for Friday night. They are currently forecasting a Kp index of 8.33 at the height of the event around midnight, which is quite high considering the scale only goes to 9!

Generally, the Kp index needs to be around 5 for the northern lights to be visible in the more northern latitudes of Canada, including the Prairies, Northern Ontario, and Quebec. While those further south in Southern Ontario require a Kp index of 6-7 for the aurora to be visible.

With a Kp index of 8.33, this will be more than sufficient and could even lead to the aurora being visible overhead instead of just along the horizon, which is what those in the southern latitudes typically experience.

Keep in mind, that this is just a rough projection, and predicting the arrival of CMEs isn't a perfect science, so it may arrive earlier or later, which would affect the potential visibility of the northern lights. It’s a good idea to be prepared for the light show, but know that it may change by Friday night once the solar storm begins.

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While we have had multiple strong (G3) and severe (G4) solar storms in recent years, this is the first time that the SWPC has issued a G4 watch since 2005. At least five CMEs are currently directed toward Earth, which, as the SWPC mentions, is a very unusual occurrence.

The last severe solar storm occurred a few months ago in March. However, it arrived earlier than expected, with the northern lights being visible in lower latitudes across Europe. However, it fizzled out before nightfall in North America, ruining the chance for a show across Canada.

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IMAGE FROM WeatherBell

Having clear skies will be critical for catching the show on Friday night, and the current forecast is looking quite good for much of Canada for Friday night.

Weather Conditions by Province for Friday Night:

  • Newfoundland: Some cloudy conditions on the east end towards St. Johns with clear skies expected through the western part of the island.

  • Maritimes: Mostly cloudy across Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Southern New Brunswick. Clear skies further north through Central New Brunswick, however, may see some building cloud cover along the Quebec border.

  • Quebec: Mostly clear across the province, however, there might be some patches of clouds closer to the border with Ontario into Northern Quebec.

  • Southern Ontario: Clear skies for Southwestern Ontario and most of the Golden Horseshoe. Lingering clouds may partially obscure the show in parts of Central and Eastern Ontario, although models do indicate that there will be breaks in the cloud cover.

  • Northern Ontario: Poor viewing conditions are expected through Northeastern Ontario as clouds will be present for much of the night. Conditions will improve further to the west where clearer skies are expected along the Manitoba border.

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IMAGE FROM WeatherBell

  • Manitoba: Clear skies for the southern part of the province with increasing cloudiness further to the north across the Interlake region and into Northern Manitoba.

  • Saskatchewan: Some cloudy patches across the central part of the province and some thicker clouds to the north. Mostly clear for Southern Saskatchewan.

  • Alberta: Mostly clear with some thin cloud cover possible in the southern portion of the province.

  • British Columbia: Mostly clear.

Pinpointing the optimal time to witness the show is a challenge, dependent on the solar storm's evolution. Current estimates suggest the peak conditions sometime Friday and peaking around midnight. It’s important to stay updated with the latest information to know when the show has started and if there are any changes in the timeframe.

For the best chance at catching the northern lights, be sure to choose a location away from urban centers, where light pollution could dim the brilliance of the Northern Lights.

Major Solar Storm Expected to Lead to a Northern Lights ‘Outbreak’ Across Canada on Thursday Night

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Anticipation is building as a substantial solar flare, unleashed from the sun earlier this week, sets the stage for multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) expected to reach Earth starting today. 

The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) foresees a G3 (strong) geometric storm tonight, with a forecasted Kp index of 7, promising a spectacular display of the northern lights across much of Canada.

Initial signs point to this being one of the most potent solar storms this year, potentially rivalling recent dazzling shows from the last few months. 

IMAGE FROM Pivotal Weather

However, some parts of Canada including Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Southern Ontario and British Columbia could have their view obstructed by clouds tonight. There could be some breaks in the clouds so there is still hope! Despite occasional breaks, a bit more effort may be needed to catch the spectacle in those areas.

The Prairies and Northern Ontario stands in a better position, with clouds posing less of a threat. Although parts of Manitoba and Alberta could have still be dealing with scattered clouds.

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Pinpointing the optimal time to witness the show is a challenge, dependent on the solar storm's evolution. Current estimates suggest the peak conditions late tonight into early Friday morning. However, flexibility is key, as the timing may shift, influenced by cloud cover. Visibility is anticipated to commence around 8-9 PM, reaching its peak between 12-4 AM.

For an enhanced viewing experience, seek out locations away from urban centers, where light pollution could dim the brilliance of the Northern Lights.

Northern Lights Dazzle the Sky Over Southern Ontario on Monday Night; Will They Return Tonight?

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Residents across Southern Ontario were treated to a rare and awe-inspiring celestial spectacle last night, as the Northern Lights made a stunning appearance across the region on Monday. The breathtaking natural light show painted the night sky with vibrant hues of green, pink, and purple.

The Northern Lights, also known as the Aurora Borealis, are a natural phenomenon caused by charged particles from the sun colliding with gases in the Earth's atmosphere. This collision releases energy in the form of colourful light, creating an ethereal dance of colours that is a sight to behold. While the Northern Lights are more commonly associated with regions closer to the Arctic Circle, the display seen in Southern Ontario was a rare treat for residents in this part of Canada.

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Those across the province were quick to capture the event, sharing stunning photographs and videos on social media. This was certainly the case in our weather report group, Ontario Storm Reports as we received over 200 pictures of the dazzling colours!

During last night's Northern Lights display in Southern Ontario, a fascinating celestial guest made an appearance alongside the traditional Aurora Borealis: STEVE, or Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement. This mysterious phenomenon, often likened to a "picket fence" of light, added an extra layer of intrigue to the already mesmerizing light show.

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STEVE is not a true aurora but rather a separate atmospheric phenomenon, and its presence in the Southern Ontario night sky last night added to the wonder and mystique of the celestial spectacle, leaving observers in awe of the captivating dance of light above.

Predicting the visibility of the Northern Lights, or Aurora Borealis, in Southern Ontario involves monitoring the geomagnetic activity, often assessed using the Kp Index. Last night, with a Kp Index around 6-7, conditions were favourable for the auroras to grace the skies of Southern Ontario.

MAP FROM noaa swpc

To be able to see the Northern Lights, we require a Kp Index of at least 5 for the northern section of Southern Ontario and around 6 for the rest of Southern Ontario. A Kp Index of 3-4 means that the Aurora will likely be relegated to the far northern part of Northern Ontario where it is more commonly found.

After last night’s impressive display of colours, many have wondered if the Northern Lights will return for an encore performance on Tuesday night. Unfortunately, the latest data isn’t favourable for the Northern Lights to be viewable in Southern Ontario. The Space Weather Prediction Center is forecasting a maximum Kp Index of 4 over the next 12 hours.

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With a Kp Index of 4, we could see the Northern Lights be visible as far south as Winnipeg and Thunder Bay. The chances of the Aurora reaching as far south as Southern Ontario are low. However, we can’t rule out the Auroras being visible along the horizon in northern parts of the region.

While this level is not as conducive to the Northern Lights as last night's conditions, it's essential to remember that aurora forecasting can be somewhat unpredictable. Nature has its way of surprising us, and sometimes, even with a lower Kp Index, the Northern Lights might still put on a show.

A Stunning Display: Northern Lights Captured Across Ontario Thursday Night

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BY: Brennen Perry

PUBLISHED: Friday, March 24, 2023

 

The sky lit up!! London, ON at approx. 11:00pm March 23, 2023

Posted by Chelle Catherine on Thursday, March 23, 2023

Northern Lights over London, Ontario on Thursday (Mar. 23) Night

Ontario residents were in for a treat Thursday night as the breathtaking northern lights danced across the sky, creating a mesmerizing display of colors. In this article, we'll delve into the science behind the northern lights, explain how they form in a way that's easily understood, and share tips on how you can catch a glimpse of this natural wonder yourself.

The Science Behind the Northern Lights

At their core, the northern lights, also known as auroras, are a result of interactions between the Earth's magnetic field and charged particles emitted by the sun. These particles, carried by solar winds, are drawn towards the poles by the Earth's magnetic field. When they collide with molecules in the Earth's atmosphere, they create the vibrant colors we see in the sky.

 

Northern Lights over Northwestern Ontario on Thursday (Mar. 23) Night

How to See the Northern Lights

While the northern lights can be elusive, there are a few factors that can increase your chances of witnessing this awe-inspiring phenomenon:

  1. Location: The closer you are to the Earth's magnetic poles, the better your chances of seeing the auroras. In Ontario, the best spots include areas with low light pollution, such as provincial parks and rural locations.

  2. Time of Year: Although the northern lights can be seen year-round, they're more active during the spring and autumn months due to increased solar activity.

  3. Weather Conditions: Clear, dark skies are essential for optimal viewing. Keep an eye on the weather forecast and plan your aurora hunting around cloudless nights.

  4. Aurora Forecast: Various organizations provide aurora forecasts, which can help you determine the likelihood of seeing the northern lights on a given night. These forecasts take into account solar activity and other factors that influence auroras.

Here are some popular resources for checking aurora forecasts:

  • Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) - NOAA: The SWPC, operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), provides real-time monitoring and forecasting of solar and geophysical events, including aurora forecasts. Their 30-minute aurora forecast can be found at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast.

  • Aurorasaurus: This citizen science project allows users to submit aurora sightings and view a real-time map of reported sightings. Aurorasaurus also provides alerts and an aurora forecast. Visit their website at http://aurorasaurus.org/.

  • SpaceWeatherLive: SpaceWeatherLive offers information on solar activity, including real-time data, alerts, and an aurora forecast. You can check out their aurora forecast at https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/aurora-forecast.

  • University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute: The Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks provides an aurora forecast for both the northern and southern hemispheres. Visit their forecast page at https://www.gi.alaska.edu/monitors/aurora-forecast.

These resources can help you stay informed about the likelihood of seeing the northern lights on a given night, increasing your chances of witnessing this incredible natural phenomenon.

 

Northern Lights over Georgian Bay on Thursday (Mar. 23) Night

The northern lights are a stunning natural phenomenon that can be witnessed in Ontario, provided the conditions are right. By understanding the science behind these colorful displays and keeping the above tips in mind, you too may have the chance to experience the magic of the auroras.

Don't forget to capture the moment and share your photos with the Instant Weather community! You can share your northern lights photos with the community by joining our Ontatio Storm Reports group:

 
Ontario Storm Reports