'Ice Day' Forecast: Freezing Rain Threatens to Cancel School Buses on Monday in Parts of Southern Ontario
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Freezing rain is forecast to impact parts of Central and Eastern Ontario starting Monday morning and continuing throughout the day.
With Environment Canada issuing freezing rain warnings that highlight potential road hazards on Monday, it is highly likely that many school boards in the affected regions will choose to cancel bus services as a precaution.
The highest likelihood of an “ice day” is focused on areas northwest of the GTA, particularly in higher elevations, as well as regions around Lake Simcoe and into Eastern Ontario north of the Lake Ontario shoreline.
For school boards in these areas, there is a 75% to 90% chance of bus cancellations. While confidence in cancellations is high, there remains a small possibility that some boards might take a gamble due to the later expected start of the freezing rain. This uncertainty has kept the chances from being universally set at 90%.
The only area where we feel a solid 90% confidence level is the southern portion of the Tri-Board district. Historically, this region has been very proactive in response to any Environment Canada winter weather warnings, so the presence of a freezing rain warning is likely enough to prompt cancellations there.
Further north, including Muskoka, Haliburton, and the Ottawa Valley, messy weather may not arrive until later in the day. As of now, Environment Canada has not issued freezing rain warnings for these areas, which lowers the likelihood of bus cancellations.
Probabilities range from 25% to 50%, with just a 10% chance in the City of Ottawa. Urban cancellations in Ottawa typically require more severe conditions, so the lower chance is consistent with their past responses.
In contrast, Southwestern Ontario and the GTA are expected to see mainly rain with minimal freezing rain, making school bus cancellations in these regions highly unlikely.
Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.
